bill hAll Star

I would actually give Orf a chance, as strange as that sounds. I wouldn't hate it. I just don't understand why it is imperative that we do if we think he's even worse than the options we have. Just asking, if Orf was hitting .280/.350/.420 in his 3rd season at AAA playing for the Indianapolis Indians at age 28 with 3 homers on the entire season, would you even be discussing him right now?

That was exactly my extreme example I gave him, but it was written off. It sounds like a stupid example to give, but it's still relevant. The idea that "we don't know, these other guys stink so try something new" could be applied on everyone. And so clearly refuted already in another post. These guys are all about the same thing. You're not comparing or choosing them between me or you. But continue to be that obtuse on it to try and be funny. It contributes a lot. Thanks. It's not to be funny, but fine. OK, replace me or CHL21 with someone that is a projected career AA or AAA player. They might be a better option than Sogard, Saladino, and Franklin and we know that Sogard, Franklin, and Saladino stink...so try them, right? I guess my whole point of contention here is that Orf may literally be getting consideration here because he plays in Colorado Springs. If we were in the International League and Orf had a .780 OPS at age 28 with a solid .270/.340 avg/OBP, his name may never be brought up as an option. That's barely over what his road stats are. But because he has inflated CS numbers, it appears that he's turned into this hitting machine that could bring that to the majors. I think he's a .280/.340 career minor league guy under normal circumstances that given his lack of power is very likely to put up a .240/.290 line with no power in the majors.

Orf is has literally been passed on TWICE by the entire league when exposed for the taking. I'm sure if someone believed in him, they'd have called Stearns, offered a bag of baseballs and some Kirk Nieuwenhuis-type player and they'd have a deal. All 30 teams are likely "smarter" than us in this one. Yes, the site is here to have discussion. We're having it. You can have your opinion but we'll obviously because we disagree in some senses. It's hard to find anyone with the profile that Orf has that has succeeded in the majors. Even Tommy La Stella showed more power in the minors. I'm just trying to explain what I think most of baseball sees in him.

That was exactly my extreme example I gave him, but it was written off. It sounds like a stupid example to give, but it's still relevant. The idea that "we don't know, these other guys stink so try something new" could be applied on everyone.

Your point is literally "anything could happen." Nope, it's that the other guys haven't had a chance yet therefor you don't know what will happen whereas the other guys have had 3-4 cracks already so you know what you have. And your point is to say you don't know that, anything can happen, the other guys could be good too. While ignoring the main point that they've already had multiple chances, and the repeating same thing different result saying... No, my point is that if you asked many scouts or GMs, they'd probably project Nate Orf to be no better than Sogard, Franklin, Saladino and be pretty confident about it. So potentially knowing that you have a .650 OPS hitter with slight, slight upside and positional flexibility is better than having a guy that you are extremely certain will cap out as a .650 OPS hitter and has less positional flexibility.

Your point is literally "anything could happen."

The issue is that you can "catch lightning in a bottle" with anyone. See: Sogard, Eric 2017. Me sitting at my desk was obviously an extreme example. That said, Orf's projection is far behind the rest. I'm trying to explain how hard/impossible it is for someone like Orf to succeed in the majors. Orf can get grit points for tough at bats and putting the ball in play all he wants, he's not going to be standing on base very often due to the fact that he has no power and not great speed. MLB pitchers will throw it right at him and the outfield will be standing halfway into the infield. There's nowhere to put it. He won't be hitting in a cavernous field where fielders have a gigantic outfield to cover and breaking balls don't break anymore while the ball also flies farther. He'll be facing MLB shifts, MLB fielders, MLB pitching, and generally standard field conditions (unless he comes up tomorrow through Sunday). So while Orf is an unknown, you do the best to project what you think, because we have 100 "unknowns" in our minors system. I played high school ball and was a decent hitter. I'm sure Stearns and his team would project me to an .030 batting average with a .050 OBP, but you never know, right? I could catch lightning in a bottle and out-hit Eric Sogard. They must think that Franklin/Sogard/Saladino have slightly better tools to put up a .650-.700 OPS in the majors and have better positional flexibility than what they think Orf would be. For a (probably better) comparable to Orf, check out Ivan De Jesus. Got a few cups of coffee in his mid-20s and stunk but always hit well in the minors. Finally got a full chance at ages 28 and 29 and was bad. He's now back hitting in the extreme hitter's environment of Colorado Springs and looking like Prime Ichiro, just like Orf. Or take a look at Nick Buss if you want to see inflated older prospect PCL batting averages in practice.

The unknown does not always have the greater chance. I, sitting at my desk right now, am an unknown to MLB baseball. There are guys like Jurickson Profar that keep getting a chance as a "maybe he'll finally put it all together" that are still scuffling, but I think the payoff is higher when giving the higher talent or perceived player get his chance. Now, in this case, we're talking about the difference between once "OK" prospects (except Franklin, who was once rated highly, but it's pretty obvious he's not getting there) vs. a guy that is putting up numbers that was never expected to be here and doesn't seem to have MLB skill as your 24th roster guy that may be forced to start at 2B/SS but should be your last guy off the bench, but it still may stand.

What do you have to lose? Maybe Nick Franklin would have regained 2016 form and put up a .771 OPS [yes, that was a small sample and some luck] while you tried to "see what you have" with Orf and he bats .220/.290./.320 over 35 games. It goes both ways. I'm not saying I'd be angry if they gave Orf a shot, it's just generally more likely that somebody that you (and you trust your judgment) believe has a better chance to succeed actually succeeds.

Professional front office people and scouts have been wrong before. Let's get that out of the way. It happens. That said, Orf has been passed on in 2 rule 5 drafts now and the Brewers have passed on calling him up several times in the past 2 years. Tyler Saladino, at 21 years old, put up an .864 OPS in A+ ball with 16 homers in 102 games. Saladino played mostly in the majors after age 24. Nick Franklin hit 23 homers between A and AA at age 19. Franklin put up a .771 OPS in the majors as recently as 2016. Eric Sogard put up a similar season to Saladino's at age 22 in A+ ball. Eric Sogard has a .384 OBP collectively in the minors and most of that happened before age 24 because he was in the majors at age 24. Nate Orf was in college at age 22. Nothing against him for that, but at age 24, when Saladino, Franklin, and Sogard were all playing Major League Baseball, Nate Orf was in A+ ball putting up 2 homers and a .773 OPS. All 4 of these players save for Franklin have been given the opportunity to face scrub pitchers at the AAA level in Colorado Springs for an extended period of time, and all of them have put up video game numbers when given that opportunity. Now, I understand that certain players blossom at certain times. Nate Orf is likely a bit of a late-bloomer in some regards. Orf does not possess power as a scrappy/professional hitter to translate to the majors most likely. He's been passed up in the rule 5 draft twice. What I'm trying to explain is that while I really don't mind giving Orf a chance, he's the backup quarterback that everyone loves. He is a hall of fame player simply because he has not been given a chance to prove that he also stinks on the field. The possibilities are limitless when your mind can imagine only success with no failure to disprove/disagree with it.

I wouldn't really call a .773 OPS at A+ and a .707 collective OPS at AA "exceeding expectations" for a guy that was 24, 25, and 26 years old at those levels. If Orf was in the majors at those ages like Franklin, Saladino, Sogard, etc., it's possible that he'd be at Ivan De Jesus status of toiling away in AAA and never expected to see the majors again for eternity (with nobody taking issue with it). Considering he wasn't even drafted, yeah I would say he has exceeded expectations! Sure, expectations for him and not of an MLB player. Orf may be next up and just in waiting due to 40 man constraints currently, but he has been repeatedly passed up by every other team in the rule 5 and by the Brewers to call up. It's possible that all of the baseball people are wrong, but there seems to be something that they don't like over the interested fan seeing a try-hard/professional hitting older prospect with inflated Colorado Springs numbers that fans generally seem to fall in love with.

I wouldn't really call a .773 OPS at A+ and a .707 collective OPS at AA "exceeding expectations" for a guy that was 24, 25, and 26 years old at those levels. If Orf was in the majors at those ages like Franklin, Saladino, Sogard, etc., it's possible that he'd be at Ivan De Jesus status of toiling away in AAA and never expected to see the majors again for eternity (with nobody taking issue with it).

I don't think either of these teams are just going to give these guys away to shed payroll anymore. Both teams have pretty clear books going forward. They'll hold these guys until they rot or until they get a bit of value in return.

This, this, this. Having a Franklin/Sogard type on the roster is no big deal. Having that player start for a week is bad, especially when there are better options available. Villar just is a better option, especially as a bottom of the order hitter with an OBP around .330. I'm all for just letting it ride with Villar and having him start for a week. That said: Villar, career, vs. RHP: .256/.326/.383/.709 Franklin, career, vs. RHP: .223/.293/.392/.685 Not a major deal/difference.

I get that he maybe could've cut the cord in Spring Training when it looked like 4-6 weeks for Vogt, but are you blaming Stearns for signing a guy that got hurt? Sogard is fair, though not much else is out there and I'm not sure what else we'd have done given what Walker is doing.

I'm not a huge Orf fan as I've been littering these threads with a "but Colorado Springs" agenda, but I would have to think you give him the call at some point? It seems fairly clear I guess that team personnel/scouts don't think he translates to the MLB at all. That has to be it.

Check out the Knebel thread. He's with Knebel in Milwaukee (or so the picture seems). That's Dan Jennings Yeah, I noticed that not 30 seconds after the post but you beat me to it. Trap set and you caught one in it.

I just looked ... can't find anything other than one parody Twitter account saying this. Check out the Knebel thread. He's with Knebel in Milwaukee (or so the picture seems).

I think we may be getting to the point where their hand may be forced, or they may "rebuild" by a early/mid 2000s Bucks-esque "we're trying to be mediocre" which ends up making them worse than if they tried to rebuild/tank, causing a tank and accidental rebuild.

I don’t agree, and I don’t see the comparable that you’re basing this on. There’s evidence just from last year that rentals get discounted significantly. I do think a Machado rental is worth more than a Martinez or Darvish rental, how much more I really don’t know. I could see having to center something around a Burnes type based on the competition and bidding for him. Still, this isn’t 10 years ago when you could at least still get comped for a rental that you acquired. GMs are smarter and none are going to gut their farm just to rent one player for 2 to 3 months. The Orioles also don’t have a ton of leverage without establishing a bidding war as their options are to either take the best offer at the deadline or lose him for a comp pick in a year that they’re going nowhere which would be a very dumb thing to do. I get all of that, but you did mention Burnes, a very useful prospect. Maybe it's just wording, but the CST article talking about a package around Addison Russell or "maybe I'd part with Arcia" just sound so weird. I get that Arcia is still young and could develop his bat, but the Orioles probably would get nothing out of those 2 given that they both have 3-ish years left and the Orioles seem 3-4 years away from something...and neither of those guys hold a ton of value other than being good, defense-only shortstops. It just feels like Arcia or Russell would be throw-ins, even if it won't be an absolute haul to rent Machado.

I know some guys with 1 year left have gone for much less in recent years, but I'm legitimately laughing out loud here at the thought of Russell or Arcia being talked about as the bigger chips in the deals. It's gonna cost the top portion of somebody's farm system even if he's just a rental.

Look, I'd give Orf a chance over Sogard because why not? That said, these guys have performed about the same or worse than your Eric Sogards of the world in the minors. They are mashing journeyman pitching in the best hitting environment in literally all of baseball. These guys have been repeatedly exposed to the rule 5 draft and never touched. I think if the Brewers want to be contenders, the solutions are either Hiura our external at 2B where there are not many options anyways. The distant 3rd place solution there is Villar getting somewhere in the stratosphere of 2016. Wren wouldn't get much playing time but I guess would be an OK 5th OF that could pinch run. Again, not expecting much out of him at the plate, though. Bandy never impressed me so I'd absolutely give Nottingham a shot. I'd take Nottingham's 20+ HR potential even if he struggles with strikeouts and has a lower AVG/OBP.

Yeah, that's just an attempt to justify unjustifiable Villar hate. Nothing more, nothing less. All I said is I'd rather start Sogard, they're both bad options. If it were up to me, Orf, Wren, and Nottingham would be on a plane to Milwaukee right now. Outside of 2016, Villar has been a terrible major leaguer, this season is no different. Do you honestly think a guy who hits ground balls 70% of the time can keep up a .397 BABIP? Even if he does, his numbers have still been bad so far. The patient approach, high obp Villar is long gone. If you're going to bring up BABIP, no one is going to keep it in your list there. The CS guys have extremely inflated BABIPs. Nottingham is the only guy that I think I would gamble on being a serious upgrade over the incumbent at his position. Sogard had a month or two of an insane BABIP last year and is back to his old self. To me, as much as I hate Sogard, there's probably an equal chance to him having a positive regression to the mean and putting up a .700-.750 OPS couple of months as there is to someone like Orf or Wren being a .700-.750 OPS hitter in Milwaukee.

Yes, at this point, all we can do is give him a shot. I'm just saying that I think the "all he's done is hit" type of statements due to heavily inflated Colorado Springs numbers are making some a bit more hopeful than they should be about a right-handed Eric Sogard getting called up to replace Eric Sogard.

Just want to make this clear that if Eric Sogard stayed down in the minors until age 28 and was allowed to hit at Colorado Springs, I would absolutely guarantee he'd put up a .320/.400/.480 type line playing in Colorado Springs/PCL just as Orf has. I'm glad that this is the end of Sogard, and Orf could be a modest improvement...but I really hope people temper their expectations of the older prospect with no power hitting in BABIP utopia of Colorado Springs. Orf's road numbers are really good. He doesn't just hit at CS. They're not nearly as good as CS on the whole. The PCL is a hitter's league. The reason that Rockies' players don't have as much (but still substantial) inflation of surface numbers is because they play @SF, @LAD, @SD on the road a lot against generally good pitchers. Orf gets to hit in Colorado Springs and then goes to mostly other high elevation/bandbox parks and faces journeyman pitching, not Clayton Kershaw. I'm sure there may be a handful that people can find in the majors, but how many 5'9" 180 players in the majors with no power and are not Dee Gordon in the speed category hold an average over .260 or an OBP much above .310 or .320? Scooter is one of the few guys that actually has stuck around with the bat, but it is mostly due to having relatively good power in his bat. Orf probably will have to deal with the outfielders standing halfway in just as Sogard does, and no matter how good your bat control is, you can only find so many green patches against MLB pitching and defense with those constraints. Orf's splits: 2017 Home: .353/.419/.577/.996 Away: .288/.375/.438/.813 2018 Home: .407/.477/.574/1.051 Away: .319/.396/.362/.758 His BABIP in these 2 seasons (overall) is .362 in 2017 and .446 in 2018. Obviously that 2018 one will go down regardless, but either way, those BABIPs occur absolutely nowhere other than Coors Field and Colorado Springs/PCL. To go back to "Orf's road numbers are really good" - Would we be overly excited about a guy that hits .300/.370/.400 that was 28 in AAA in a neutral/slightly hitter-leaning park? That's Eric Sogard territory, but Sogard has not had an extremely long stay in the minors since his early/mid 20s.