bill hAll Star

Away games with the Rockies (small sample): 76 PA, .238/.355/.317/.673 0 HR.

I don't mean to nitpick your post as it was well thought out, but the casual fans like Marlin Man simply aren't going to grasp the rebuild. They think right now, they are better off with Stanton and Yelich and those high powered offenses than they'll be on the tail end of a rebuild with a young talented core or cheap players, good pitching, and money to spend(all theoretically). They'll be happy when that day comes, but until they can actually see it happening and see the good baseball...the casual fans will flock to other sports/entertainment and complain about Jeter and his tactics. Yeah, not sure if I articulated it well enough, but that's pretty much what I was saying. Guys like him don't really see the forest through the trees (and maybe don't even care).

Also (and maybe the rest of this conversation needs to move to "the financial state of baseball" thread) regarding a salary floor: Sure, they should probably implement it. However, it's a "grass is always greener" thing. There still have to be terrible teams. Guys like Marlins Man are, yes, paying season ticket holders but no, are not sitting there on Cot's baseball contracts and reading up on Baseball America's top prospect lists. I get that season ticket holders don't want to watch the Marlins try to squeeze some sort of trade value out of Martin Prado and work Lewis Brinson in while playing a bunch of scrubs, but is it really that much better long-term than watching Giancarlo Stanton smack 55 homers while they win 76 games with absolutely no pitching? The Marlins probably are still at what the salary floor would be and were way over it. The only way out of the box for the Marlins was to trade their remaining prospects for pitching or to further sign themselves into a potential cap hell by signing Jake Arrieta or some similar move. I watched the Milwaukee Bucks for a long, long time. I watched Herb Kohl spend a bunch of money to be mediocre every year and end up being terrible for a large chunk of them. Marlins Man would've been dancing and celebrating that the Bucks traded draft picks for Stephen Jackson to try their never-ending quest for the 8 seed. There'd be a bunch of moves like that. There were a string of moves that made me walk away from the Bucks and never come back even though they lucked into a superstar. I think a salary floor would help, I'm just saying there'd still be just as many terrible teams...some would still find ways to tank, others would just try to placate their fans and unintentionally open a 10 year window of mediocrity.

Why tank? The 2017 Astros, 2016 Cubs, and 2015 Royals (somewhat) and the 2008 Rays (almost) have some words for you. Correa, Kris Bryant, Bregman, Moustakas, etc. You also get that pick in every single round which is key. The Packers have not only been hurt by drafting 25th-32nd the past 8 years in the first round...but every single round. The Brewers only made the playoffs twice because of somewhat botched management once they got their competitive core. They didn't do the pitching aspect right. Drafting that high for so many years netted the majority of the Brewers' franchise players in Weeks, Sheets, Fielder, Braun, LaPorta (stand-in for CC). I am not really even talking about Suppan, Wolf, etc. If the owner wants to pay $ for average pitching with a trash farm system, I'm OK with that. They just were not able to have enough depth and/or elite pitching. Maybe not getting Suppan would've helped that effort, but since they missed on drafting more pitching, the options were to pay for an ace in free agency (not happening in Milwaukee) or take leaps of faith on doing something like Fielder for a young stud pitcher in 2007 (also very dangerous). How else would the Brewers' have been playoff contenders for ~5 years without those guys? Trading non-elite prospects? Building the majority of their team through free agency? Wouldn't have happened. The Brewers simply didn't luck into enough pitching or manage that aspect well enough to be more consistent. The question is what "the cheapest team possible" brings. For Attanasio, I truly believe he'll pay most of it forward. Will the Marlins and Rays do that? Remains to be seen. I actually do think that even though Jeter's group A.) shouldn't have been allowed to buy the team and B.) are being douches right now will eventually be fielding a competitive team. There's no reason to play for 78 wins with no pitching and a huge payroll as they currently were doing. Build for 2022. They'll spend money then. Or if they don't do that, they'll at least have a competitive, young team where they can win for 4-5 years and maybe be shrewd enough to trade that competitive team for another competitive team (somewhat referencing your A's model, but hopefully with a slightly larger budget). I think if the Marlins and Rays build good teams 3, 4, 5 years from now, that ownership will boost spending. Will it be equal to what they saved right now? With the Rays, I doubt it. With the Marlins it may be close.

This Rays move barely moves the needle as to how much they'll miss the playoffs by, but is a greedy owner cash grab, probably. It probably still helps them in the long run if they're just giving up and tanking. The Marlins' move can be written off as alienating their fans, but they're going to be better for it in the long run. People can debate the return for Ozuna & Gordon, but I think the Marlins are probably going to be a good team in 5 years. Had they stayed the course, I'm guessing they'd have missed the playoffs anyways for the next 3 years and then have crashed horrifically with Stanton's contract getting worse (and still on the books). The crappy thing about so many people realizing that if your goal is a championship that you might as well tank is that it creates even more latitude for owners to bank some revenue sharing (and you know they will), but it is really hard to tell without a very long lens and a view into the books that we'll never get whether or not they're going to pay the money forward down the line. Going a level further, the focus will shift a bit with so many teams deciding to tear it down. The market will correct again and being one of 12 teams tanking in a given season may not be as wise as it once seemed.

His first three months were good 1.015 .975 .827 Makes no sense to just DFA him given it's not like he was going to be super expensive. If this was a pure salary dump, stuff like this is why some people, big market teams, and the players union aren't exactly on board with expanded revenue sharing. I think Dickerson is worth having on a roster, but I can find 30 other guys that should be DFA’ed/cut that have put up numbers like that for a few months in the past decade. His numbers away from Coors and the rest of his TB numbers seem to suggest he will consistently have problems staying just over a .300 OBP. I think they can still work out a trade to someone via the DFA based on who claims. Not 100% how that works in this case. But yeah, point taken on the revenue sharing thing. Still should be under contract somewhere and the Rays will just sit on the cash.

They probably still would rather go younger than Villar. If his value is truly that low, they should just sit and hold unless they’ve got a Rays-esque salary cutting request.

Had this thought last night as well. Thames/Aguilar would be good for them. Their interest in Hosmer was strictly business (again, I don’t know why). I think they’re going nuclear rebuild otherwise. Don’t think Thames/Aguilar would fit.

I think it's virtually certainty that they sign either Cobb or Arrieta. It's just a waiting game. I don't think we'll see a trade for a pitcher. They have solid options for the 5th spot until Nelson returns and it's looking more and more like that may be June. Santana could be traded for a 2B and a prospect or two if he's traded but the fact that the Rays couldn't find a taker for Dickerson says all you want to know about the corner OF market. It's a very weak market. But Santana is already a way better hitter than Dickerson.

1. Machado has plenty of risk if his contact issues are not figured out or he loses some mobility. 2. I think the Padres would be estatic if Hosmer was good enough to bolt after 5/$100. That means he probably earned it and is leaving them for the risky years, even if those are cheaper. All of that said, I’ve stated already: it’s not a great contract. It’s decent timing and an obvious business decision that they won’t keep doing is all I’m saying.

Machado is going to cost 2-3x as much as Hosmer and won’t give you the benefit of the declining $ at the end. That’s not even close to comparable. The Padres aren’t going all in this year and they aren’t getting that much better. Their ownership group decided to give up a few yachts for their personal face of the franchise guy that still can be decent in 3-4 years when they need him. Doing it now also makes the blow soften when it matters. He is affordable in his final contract years. Signing a similar contract 2 years from now makes your known overpay sit right in the key window.

Clown show? Again, maybe what they’ve built the past 2-3 years in tanking and international spending will bust, but it’s not like this proves San Diego (today, as we stand) is like playing for Herb Kohl’s Bucks where he meddles in every move to try to get the 8 seed. The Padres just tanked and seem to be making shrewd moves. Tanking is easy. FOs who can put more money into int signing due to a low payroll should come out ahead more often there. Using multiple spots to rule 5 guys is a smart way to tank and steal talent for the farm. Drafting can be aided by picking early. All these pluses can point towards being smart and shrewd, but can also inflate their appearance by making the FOs job easier. Building a team is a different talent. FA and trades are different talents. Nfl guys who can draft have been fired because they botched contracts. They've done a great job in using money and roster spots differently to improve their farm. They got some great picks by being awful. The first signing they make is the new r&d guy's #1 fools gold signing that they paid premium for. I don't know how he can see that as a good omen. Most of their good talent is still 2-3 years away and they’re drafting high again this year. I don’t know if this contract will matter that much. It’s a PR move to have a guy be the clubhouse leader as they begin to ascend. By the time they’re hopefully good, the contract will be basically 4 years, $60 million. Anyways, this argument has dragged on too long. I think the contract is bad but it’s something on the business side of sports and the Padres will stay the course on a shrewd build from here forward.

Clown show? Again, maybe what they’ve built the past 2-3 years in tanking and international spending will bust, but it’s not like this proves San Diego (today, as we stand) is like playing for Herb Kohl’s Bucks where he meddles in every move to try to get the 8 seed. The Padres just tanked and seem to be making shrewd moves up until this one, which pretty clearly is a one-off.

Probably not. My point is that I don’t think this is a normal thing for the Padres. They used some of the luxury of an impending cheap payroll to slide a likely overpay in. They tanked and did that international signing bonanza a few years ago. Doesn’t seem like they’d suddenly turn into a team that is going to make moves like this consistently.

The “can’t assume stupid” is about the Padres would hire Cameron and then just spend on overpriced free agents every year over his head with how they’ve been smart leading up to this. This was a PR move by the Padres. I don’t think they’re dumb enough to crash into the iceberg by making this a regular thing. They have a cheap roster otherwise and they were willing to overpay Hosmer as all of their guys start to hit the bigs that haven’t already. If those guys are all failures...well, then they still had their $140 million elder statesman to appease themselves and fans.

Yeah but he's got to be sitting there not wanting to rock the boat but also watching that boat slowly glide into an iceberg. Ownership starts drifting the boat that way and he's sitting there in his head going... oh no...oh no... crap... no crap no... well its just 8 years... and only 20% of the payroll for 5 years...sigh. You have to do this thing in life where you assume people aren’t THAT stupid. Yes, if Hosmer stinks it could hinder their ability to add players 3-5 years from now (but again, not too much. Their roster will be very cheap outside of this). They probably won’t need to add that many anyways. No, this will not be a normal thing. They’ve built a gigantic warehouse full of good prospects. They’re going to have a very cheap roster. And I think this was ownership’s one serious move. I doubt they’ll be asking him to sign an overpaid $100+ million deal every year. I think the Padres’ future is very bright even if Myers and Hosmer are very blah guys for their contracts.

Re: the Cameron stuff - it’s pretty clear this was an ownership thing for SD and KC from the start. They both wanted to overpay the guy for an elder statesman. I guess for Cameron, he can be hopeful that ownership is basically willing to pay this one on their own and the rest of the budget is his to decide what to do with after this.

Let’s wait to see if this is truly a “bag o balls.” Tampa has not been extremely well run lately but they’re a team of professional evaluators...I remember people making fun of our return of a bunch of low-A fodder for Lind. Now there’s Freddy Peralta. Palacios looks promising. Gotta think TB really likes him. Not defensively. Nor Base stealing. 20 of 34? SS RF was 3.97. Wasnt a lot of BBs, so he's Arcia lite full grade or 2 below at every aspect to Arcia. And thats if he maintains his production the higher he climbs. This is borderline ML starter or just a AAAA profile. Turns 22 this year with A ball highest level experience. You're right this is an equivalent to the Brewers trade of Lind, but its not as its 1 for 1 not 1 for 4. 20 isn’t reallly old for high A. He’s not Lindor or Arcia in terms of progression but he could make a dent in the league. I am admittedly going off very little but I have to think the Rays see at least something.

Hosmer and Jason Heyward both benefitted from having a “good guy/franchise guy + consistent player + inflates prospect” aura about them that vastly overshadowed their actual MLB performance (Heyward did have a good stretch). In this case, the Padres wanted their cornerstone vet to go along with all their young players and the Royals wanted to keep the face of the franchise while the team went into the tank. Boras played them against each other and won big.

I was gonna say gotta be frontloaded given how they’ve set this up. He’s gonna be a bust overall but on a Y2Y basis it makes sense if this is who they want to hitch their wagon to.

Let’s wait to see if this is truly a “bag o balls.” Tampa has not been extremely well run lately but they’re a team of professional evaluators...I remember people making fun of our return of a bunch of low-A fodder for Lind. Now there’s Freddy Peralta. Palacios looks promising. Gotta think TB really likes him.

FWIW, Odorizzi may get 8-10 next year. The money is pretty much negligible but Odorizzi is the best pitcher if he stays healthy. That’s the big if. They can decline arby. It's a 6.3 1 year deal. Beats garcia and vargas easily. If he’s bad enough to decline arby, the trade is a big loss. None of the 3 contracts are making a dent in the long term plans of any of the teams. I’m not taking out a microscope to compare the dollar amounts.

FWIW, Odorizzi may get 8-10 next year. The money is pretty much negligible regardless, but Odorizzi is the best pitcher if he stays healthy. That’s the big if.

The good thing is that Santana is a superior hitter.

Corey Dickerson’s career trajectory is the answer to “what if Carlos Gonzalez didn’t play basically his entire career in Colorado?”