bill hAll Star

As they can with the Cubs as well. Lots of things went wrong for the Cubs this past year and we still finished several games behind them.

Are you copy/pasting your own posts and posting them again? Lol I think you all see the current roster as an 86 win team. That's not really the case. The team to end last season was better than an 86 win team and we've improved on that. You forget the beginning of the season with 2 crappy starters and a closer that got cut in June. The team we had playing down the stretch included a bunch of gassed/banged up players, but it was still better than an 86 win team. As much as I don't want to give up the prospects necessary to get Yelich, he'll significantly improve the team right away. CF was one of the positions we got the least amount of production out of, including down the stretch. It will immediately become one of our best. I don't like WAR, but I have to think we are gaining 3 or so WAR with this move. Nelson was worth 5 WAR for the period he played. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball and even with the optimism, we can’t be sure to count on him for anything. Maybe Peralta/Guerra things won’t go wrong early but other bad things can also happen this year that we aren’t expecting.

Amen.

5/$130 with an opt-out at 2 years from the Cubs.

I don't think it's booming, though, which explains why he hasn't signed anywhere yet. I have a feeling that whoever signs him is going to get him for below projections. I have a feeling he probably has 3-4 offers in hand already, all offering a similar per year average. It's a matter of preference at this point for him. The post you quoted up there mentions that the market has opened back up. I really doubt that the Brewers win a bidding war with the Cubs or Dodgers. It's optimistic-level thinking to think that a guy of Darvish's caliber is going to circle back around to Milwaukee.

Yeah, if the market is truly booming for Darvish, the Brewers are not involved.

At this point, I personally think it's better for the Brewers that the Cubs strike out and just can't sign guys rather than sign a few huge contracts that potentially turn into busts. Why, you ask? Their day of reckoning is coming in 2021 regardless. Bryant, Rizzo will be free agents after that season and Hendricks, Quintana, Contreras, Baez, etc. are all going to be getting expensive then and/or will be free agents shortly after as well. It's true that maybe signing a dumb Darvish contract hurts them in 2020 or 2021 if they're trying to sign a reliever or another starting pitcher, but I don't think it does that much. They've already pushed their chips to the table for the next 3-5 years. They've got a weak farm system that I'm sure they'll hope to replenish by then, but even if Darvish's contract is a relative bust, I don't think it matters. They will have more to spend to try to push their final chips on the table in 2020 even if Darvish is a bust. Maybe it will all spectacularly explode in 2021, but that day would be coming anyways, regardless of Darvish's contract. IMO, it's much better if the Cubs just whiff on free agents rather than sign a bust contract.

What if they’ve been planning to go over the tax threshold all along in 2019? They’ve been behind the pace of the other big market teams for a while and I feel like they could. They might still be able to make a play at another big piece after Darvish next offseason. They’d have to win the bidding but I could see them being in it. I'm not saying the Cubs aren't planning on going over the threshold, I'm saying the price of doing business for them is going to be very expensive for them. Schwarber and Baez (plus a couple more) will be in the first year of arbitration, while Hendricks and Russell with be in second year of arb. Now, these pieces will be attractive to other teams if they decide to trade them, depending on needs that arise. I get that, but they’ve spent so long not going over the threshold that let’s say they did go for Darvish this year and another FA next year: it would be expensive but they’d make it through it. The day of reckoning is probably around 2021 regardless, but if they’re willing to spend that money, it may cost them $230 million given some tax was added for 2019, but then Lester is cheaper and Zobrist is gone and they’d probably be able to shuffle things around. I agree, though, that it’s getting expensive. It’s very hard to avoid for them, but I feel like it’s also unlikely that Epstein goes into the next few offseasons without a plan with his owner so that they can spend something each offseason.

What if they’ve been planning to go over the tax threshold all along in 2019? They’ve been behind the pace of the other big market teams for a while and I feel like they could. They might still be able to make a play at another big piece after Darvish next offseason. They’d have to win the bidding but I could see them being in it.

Well, they could lose Rizzo and Bryant which would help us in...2022. Might even be smart to let Rizzo go. I get the sentiment and I’m just being a bit facetious there...the Cubs really do have some warts showing in their long-term agenda, but it might be a long ways out before they aren’t at the very least a solid team.

If we’re taking on those kinds of players, the prospect return would be pretty huge. Might not be Zack Greinke levels of excitement but it would get me pretty excited about the next 5 years. And we still may spend on 2018.

Oh, all of those guys are the crap. I'm hoping they all come with something really good. I'm actually hoping the brewers take Shields and a couple really awesome prospects from the White Sox. So let's play that out if having fun is the goal. The clear implication here is that the Brewers are working on a deal that brings back a bad salary and maybe a couple of good prospects. How does that lead to the next trade? If Santana is dealt, Cain is the next step probably.

I’m assuming the Blue Jays would want further away prospects as they’d be signaling a teardown and I don’t think that Santana is enough to be a ceneterpiece.

A few things when it comes to a trade 1. I think one will eventually happen, but Stearns isn't working the phones with an agenda of satisfying people on message boards desire to see something happen ASAP. 2. Odds are if/when a trade happens, it will involve a scenario not mentioned previously on message boards because real GM's know better than to leak out serious conversations between each other. It's more rare than common that a real trade happens between two teams where rumors of the players involved had previously been leaked or rumored about. Yeah, but this whole thread is based on a report that a trade is close. Agree with what you’re saying, but as an impatient fan, I’d like something fun to talk about. Obviously not a huge deal in the end, but our impatient brains are being let down after reports of an imminent trade. Not Stearns’ fault. Just a disappointment for some short-term fun.

Austin Jackson, 2 years, $6m to SF.

No, not what I'm saying, really. I'm saying Abreu getting hurt is almost as likely as a Thames/Aguilar regression. I'd be way more confident in Abreu producing for sure, but it's not worth trading a top prospect for. I think neither matter because we're a lot more than a Jose Abreu addition away from a good team. We'd better have Darvish or Cobb lined up or we'll be left with choices of: A. Throwing more prospects on an all-in 2018-2019 endeavor, of which I'm not interested in if it blows away the future. or B. Only acquiring Abreu and still likely missing the playoffs. No, it's not because our guys would have equally likely chance to get hurt, if not moreso based on what I said. So that cancels out, you can't just say one side could get hurt. I guess I'm shocked I'm the only one here that thinks one prospect for two years of an AS level consistent 1B isn't a clear win in value. Most of these trades have 3-4 guys going back to the team for the star, one of which in top prospect type category. Everything else I've said I agree on. I'm not sure we're true contenders without other moves so is it really worth bothering with. But I think you're clearly wining the trade so much that you have to do it and figure it out later. And based on what we're hearing here, management does seem to think they're contenders. If it doesn't work out you should be able trade Abreu before he's gone and regain what you lost in value in Brinson, if not more based on historical deals at the deadline. I think the Sox would be stupid to do it and could get much more. Just drop the part about Abreu getting hurt, I was just saying when you narrow your window to 2 years, he had better be healthy for all of it. Not my point, anyway. Point being - I don't care if it ends up being a home run in value. I don't really see the point of a trade of Brinson for Abreu unless the Brewers do a lot more. If the Brewers think that adding a 1-2 win upgrade for a season where you're potentially missing a guy that was a 5-win player last year makes you better than the Cubs...well then we should question if Stearns is the right guy. Thinking you can trade a guy later on is dangerous. We could get lowballed at the deadline with Abreu or he could get hurt and then we'd have absolutely nothing to show for it all.

No, not what I'm saying, really. I'm saying Abreu getting hurt is almost as likely as a Thames/Aguilar regression. I'd be way more confident in Abreu producing for sure, but it's not worth trading a top prospect for. I think neither matter because we're a lot more than a Jose Abreu addition away from a good team. We'd better have Darvish or Cobb lined up or we'll be left with choices of: A. Throwing more prospects on an all-in 2018-2019 endeavor, of which I'm not interested in if it blows away the future. or B. Only acquiring Abreu and still likely missing the playoffs.

Abreu could get hurt, or more likely, the Brewers still miss the playoffs by a longshot with Abreu. I'm not a major fan of Brinson on the whole, but the "well, we've already got another guy there" argument is how you get the Twins throwing away Wilson Ramos for some crappy reliever at the deadline because they're happy with the one other guy they have. I prefer quantity unless the prospect is Mike Trout. Maybe Brinson is the guy that pans out and Phillips is the failure. Or maybe both are just pretty good but we thrive on having both as depth for the next 6 years. Or maybe Brinson can be used in a more valuable trade.

I'm a "In Stearns We Trust" guy, but if this is true, I have a strong feeling basically nothing happens according to plan. I'm not sure I'm following completely but this seems like a case where all of the free agents just sign elsewhere and the Brewers back out of every trade because half/all of them suddenly are not what they wanted to do.

Abreu isn't worlds better than the platoon we're currently rolling with. We may have less stability and flexibility going with the platoon, but I'm not giving up our top trade chip for an upgrade that one could argue isn't even that much of an upgrade. OK guys, keep in mind if Brinson gets hurt again this year or does poorly like he did when he was up last year that his trade value crashes quite hard. Or you can add legit ASG level 1B rather than relying on Thames who was kind of just ok after April and banking on Jesus to replicate what he did last year. I guess I'm just not prospect hoarder, these guys flop all the time. That said, i'm totally fine not having a big swing trade like this and just rolling with what we have at 1B and seeing what happens. Without another good pitcher added they don't really have a shot anyway. But if you're going to do it I think we're clearly winning that trade valuewise on paper. I mean, we got way more back for Lucroy. We won 86 games with Jimmy Nelson and Thames/Aguilar putting up Abreu's production on aggregate. We can hang a banner for "we have a $20 million All Star caliber player on our team" when we win 83 this year. I am a fan of Jose Abreu and would take him in the right case...but the Brewers are not one minor tweak away from a World Series. Maybe throw Darvish in there and we can start talking.

Abreu isn't worlds better than the platoon we're currently rolling with. We may have less stability and flexibility going with the platoon, but I'm not giving up our top trade chip for an upgrade that one could argue isn't even that much of an upgrade.

Unless they are militant about staying under the tax threshold next year as well, I don't think giving up major value to rid themselves of Ellsbury matters. They won't care at all about the luxury tax next year. If they stay under this year they'll reset the penalties to a lower level. At some point they'll want to get below it again to reset, but in a year where Harper and Kershaw are possibly available, it's not going to be that year. Exactly my thoughts. Shedding Ellsbury, unless there is serious benefit in getting 2 stud players squeezed in right now (while still leaving the option of more next year) is not really something that the Yankees would bend over backwards to do.

Clear payroll to sign Darvish and then Harper, Machado, or Kershaw next year. Or all of them. Unless they are militant about staying under the tax threshold next year as well, I don't think giving up major value to rid themselves of Ellsbury would be a good idea.

I thought about this too. I think I'd rather have some pitchers personally. Torres solves the immediate 2B issue and allows flexibility with the others in the minors to move to a different position or trade. Anyone wanna explain the motivation for the Yankees here unless Shaw is also involved? They're ~$20 million under the tax threshold right now. The only reason this might make sense is if they trade Torres so that they can fit both Moustakas and Darvish in under the tax threshold. Can't imagine them giving up a supposed stud/starting 2B prospect so that they can save money on Ellsbury on a franchise that clearly isn't hurting that much for money.

I know that you're just throwing out ideas here so I'm not shooting the messenger, but I would say no. Verlander is probably as good or better than Darvish and has shorter-term risk. Don't see it.