ozzybourne
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Everything posted by ozzybourne
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bonds to tampa is the only way out. eastern tv. up and coming team. eastern tv. yankees, red sox, eastern tv. if this happens, and barry has no positive results, wow--what a match made in heaven.
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quick question--much of this discussion is based on theoretical stats or a limited sample from TLR in st louis. why do we want to base the yost lineup with kendall? this seems to be a very limited sampling to work from. why not hardy or hall from the 9th spot? -
that would be a 34 year old fielder.
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i want to keep this time travel/futuristic post going. if these players stay healthy and are strong, big time players, what do they make in the year 2018? how much will a 334 year old prince fielder make? or a 34 year old ryan braun? or a 32 year old gallardo? think about it . 10 years from now is not far off, and the increase in salary from 10 years ago is like 2-3 times. you do the math.
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instead of the pitcher?
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"Marlins creating all-male, plus-size cheer squad"
ozzybourne replied to RU Rah Rah's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
pretty simple--they have no room for brayan on their roster. -
You're only focusing on the negatives though. Jason Kendall is not likely (relatively) to drive in those runs anyway, with a .250 average and a .330 SLG. The positive is we improve the OBP infront of Weeks from .171 to .330 - that's ~100 more times from the spot right in front of Rickie. And closer to ~33 when you take into account that the pitcher isn't always the 3rd out. So we lose ~17 PA for Kendall with RISP that he could have gotten batting 8th, but we add 33+ baserunners ahead of Weeks. and what about the losses in the line up in front of the 8th batter going to the 9th? i am probably wrong, but dont we miss the first opporotunity to score runs under your premise? again if all this is statistically proven as being a close to a wash (please see my link mentioned before) --let alone not used by almost all MLB managers--that this at best a wash--why are we debating this? and allowing an option like this to become a managing tool for ned yost to use? finally--why not bat kendall 2nd (high obp) and bat hardy or cameron or hall 9th? it seems this only makes sense to those proponents if kendall is the 9th batter and not hardy, cameron, hall, or ?
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Who do you most want to succeed (bounce back) in 2008?
ozzybourne replied to Menotti80's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
cappy, hall, gagne,sheets and cameron -
TLB--i still think it awkward to bat the pitcher 8th. and as for yost i suscribe to the keep it simple theory. here is some additional info as long as we are looking at this topic. --the 8th spot averages about 25-30 ABs more per year --with RISP for the 2007 brewers, the 8th spot came up 15 more times than the 9th, in 2006 7 more times, 2005 13 more, 2004 34 more times. and yes some of that may be offset by PH, but usually not til after 6th or 7th inning. --interesting about the 3rd spot. team high AB with RISP for season-206 plate appearances. team high BA .335, team high OBP .408, SLG .618 here's the link for 2007 brewers batting order info --and gateway into mlb statland-- BOP Outcomes 2007 MIL
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"Marlins creating all-male, plus-size cheer squad"
ozzybourne replied to RU Rah Rah's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
can russell brayan join this dance squad if he gets cut by the brewers? -
Another way to look at things is that with a typical complement of major league players, most lineup adjustments don't end up making much difference. Positive or negative effects tend to be very minor. In other words, I don't think there's much potential for harm being done by 'renting' the idea and giving it a test drive. casey--after doing some additional research, i found 2 things in particular worth noting; 1--to paraphrase a quote from larusso from 8/4/07 to the AP before a game with the nationals-'in an attempt to jump start his saggin offense, TLR has decided to bat p-piniero 8th and 2b-kennedy 9th. " i've been thinking abou this for a while. our offense has been very erratic. we're just not getting enoug guys on base". this is the first time TLR has done this since the 1998 season when he did it for 76 ab's'. 2--at the end of an extensive report called "evaluating traditional lineups"--it did not reference the author on the web page i found, but has exhaustive modeling based on mark pankin's use of the markov process model--is a simple summary that ends with--"i might be inclined to select the lineup that makes the most intuitive sense to the player and fans. simply put, it is not worth all the fuss you'd cause trying to be clever with lineups". this article also supports your statement that lineup changes have little overall impact on scoring runs. so lets keep the pitcher 9th and not try to turn this into a circus.
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with the injury history of sheets, too many good young position players to pay, and good young arms being controlled for several years--no way the brewers sign him. as for oliver perez--just wait until the year 2018. (eliminated unnecessary quote --1992)
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kind of looks like kevin pollack (eliminated quoted picture --1992)
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yes the professionals may do things you dont agree with--but they seem to do it consistently. that is most teams do things in a similiar fashion because it has been tried and true. then the talent (front office) and in game managing (managers) will win the game. your point seems to agree with what im saying. by the way, my stated opinion does hold water since 99.9% of the lineups have the pitcher batting 9th. money ball and the use of statisics has influenced the game. but until i see this 'bat the pitcher 8th' argument used on the mlb level with some consistency, and not a few times ala larusso, i dont buy into it. and weren't the cards having some major injury problems at the time when he did it? another side of this--if the clean up hitter leads off an inning more often than anyone but the leadoff hitter--and if your 4 and 5 hitters are good (why else would they be 4th or 5th) it seems the 8th hitter is going to be up quite often with runners on base and 2 outs. and you want the pitcher batting here in the first 6 or so innings of a game? again, dumb idea. (pared nested quote --1992)
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again-- i must believe that with all the money at stake for winning in mlb, and all the high priced talent in front offices assigned to evaluate almost every situation, if this was such a logical thing to do, it would be employed on a more regular basis. that is why it is a stupid theory--yes imho, more importantly in the judgement of the proffessionals who run mlb.
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i thought the alien overlords with letting us out of the saltmines was pretty funny, along with the beer/alchohol free pc society. the truth may be somewhere in between. that is, can mlb and pro sports in general reign in the incredible increase in spending for 1) superstars? 2) average players with several years experience? ticket prices can go up in beertown with a great product, but what happens say in 5-6 years if we have a couple down years and attendence goes back to 1.5 mil or less. i guess what i am asking if the costs-player and fan--get so high will we see a major trend for teams to move to new markets. its one thing to pay to see an exciting winner--its another to watch a sub 500 team for several years in a row. these costs are currently hitting new highs as we speak. a-rod and a few others making 20-25+mil are year may awaken our senses, but with average players set to make the same in a few years, it may be the tipping point. i think baseball is approaching its height in popularity and success right now, but if overall costs are not curtailed the fan base will lose interest with the skyrocketing costs and salaries. $10 - $12 beers and $7 dollar hot dogs cant be very attractive no matter how good the team is
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the question was --should the pitcher bat 8th with kendall 9th? if this is such a creative strategy, why hasn't it been employed more often? answer--because it is stupid. perhaps larusso, in the last 30-40 years of mlb did it for part of one season, did it for a while. word to ned--stop thinking so much. if i thought he was scary before, but this puts yost on another planet. planet 'way out there'.
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ender--what about his last 5 starts? 4 of them being QS? yes the k/bb ratio could have been better(21-15) in 30 innings, but at the end of the year, in a pennant race he performed like a veteran. by the way, his era as a starter was 2.06, and dont give me that stuff about era not being important. give him a break--we should have more young pitchers with his upside.
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if, and it's a big if that villy starts in aaa, it is only because some other guys are getting paid. he will shine when given a chance. and i expect that to be soon.
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TLB--i believe the design was for a surplus, esp with sheets history. i am getting the feeling more and more that DM will ride into the season with all 8 pitchers regardless of injuries, and trade once all are healthy or sometime in mid/end of may depending on how the rest of the team shakes out.
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i agree. that is why villy to aaa is no big deal for me, if it happens. these 'too many player' things always seem to get worked out.
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well they do have a game in march. and your point is very correct--they all count. in the past ned yost has used games--during years he did not expect the crew to contend (i think you should always expect to win)--to 'teach' players certain things during the game/season. and make decisions that may have not been about winning, but about learning. that is why THEY ALL COUNT is so true. a game in april is as important as a game in september.
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every game does matter--that should be the motto for ned yost this year. it actually sounds pretty good for a sound bite---'please welcome your 2008 milwaukee brewers. every game does matter'. i like it. how about you casey?
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Prince Fielder: Vegetarian
ozzybourne replied to Brian the Automator's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
thanks QOTSA--us rockers have to stick together. -
Prince Fielder: Vegetarian
ozzybourne replied to Brian the Automator's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
i dont have the symbol he changed his name to on my keyboard. that was purely a creative gesture and in no way meant to be a profanity casey.
