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OldSchoolSnapper

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Everything posted by OldSchoolSnapper

  1. OldSchoolSnapper
    C'mon, their ages matter. One is 33 and the other turns 38 midseason. You have a better chance of Stafford being the good QB he is at 36 than you do of Rodgers being as good at 41. We've gotten a bit used to 40 year old QBs now but nobody can convince me a 5 year age gap isn't significant. Stafford won't have any more excuses though. We get to see how "underrated" he is. Personally I think I've heard that so much, the guy is actually overrated or properly rated.
  2. OldSchoolSnapper
    Quite a haul but he's 33. Rodgers is 38.
  3. OldSchoolSnapper
    Rodgers was damn near perfect given what he was up against. By the 2nd half the offensive line was getting obliterated and he threw one pick where a penalty that wasn't called disrupted the timing of the route. On the Packers first scoring drive there was a 3rd and long that he completely Houdini'd a first down out of. If they punted there that game would have spiraled out of control even faster than it did. Adams drops that TD 1/100 times and the 2PT drop loomed large as well. Not converting that completely wrecked the end of the game. The only people blaming Rodgers are Colin Cowherd and the people who listen to his show. It's insane. McGinn jumped the shark years ago, I know that sounds like a fanboy thing to say but guy cannot stop himself from cutting Rodgers down regardless of the context. He has some vendetta with him and it's ruining his work. I know that Rodgers scoffed about McGinn like 7 years ago and it obviously rubbed him the wrong way. I stopped listening to McGinn in 2016 when he claimed that Rodgers wasn't a lock for the Hall of Fame and had "fallen from ranks of great QBs." He sounds like Jermichael Finley, the amount of reach articles he's put out blaming Rodgers for anything under the sun while claiming that Brett Favre saved his career by teaching him intangibles or something. Whatever. He was a great writer/analyst (I bought and loved his book) and now he just sounds like another tool.
  4. OldSchoolSnapper
    You're sort of shaping the argument into something it isn't. The philosophy people are advocating is letting your young QB start earlier in his career. There is no guarantee that they'll be in the Super Bowl. SF did this not just once, but twice with two different guys. The days of drafting a top 10 QB and then signing some retread to keep his spot warm on the field for 1-2 years are all but over. What GB did (again) isn't the norm. There was a LOT of heat for the Chiefs when they shoved Alex Smith out the door. I think he even went to a Pro Bowl that season. And I still think going back to 2000 is cheating a bit. Brady doesn't apply for the reason I already said, but I would look at what happened to Pittsburgh, Seattle, Philadelphia and what KC will be one to watch. Their roster is ridiculous right now.
  5. OldSchoolSnapper
    Pittsburgh too. Ben's 3 appearances gloss over that he hasn't been there since 2010.
  6. OldSchoolSnapper
    I wonder why people keep repeating this? From 2000-2021 (I can count this year since neither QB this year is on a rookie contract), the SB winning QB is on a rookie contract 31.8% (7 of 22) of the time. The SB losing QB is on a rookie contract 22.7% (5 of 22) of the time (or 27.3% combined). 6 of the 7 SB winning QBs are probably future HOF QBs (Brady 2x, Rothlisberger, Wilson, E Manning, Mahomes) with Flacco as the other. Of the 5 SB losing QBs, you have Wilson as future HOF probable with McNair, Grossman, Kapernick, and Goff. Best way to win a SB is to have a HOF level QB on a rookie contract. The second best way is to have a HOF level QB. 2000 is way too early to use here. This is a very recent trend that started with Seattle, then worked in Philly and Kansas City. You've seen what's happened to Philly and Seattle and KC will follow. It's not winning the Super Bowl either, it's the fact that way more clubs have a willingness to toss the young QBs in immediately and get value off that first contract. But I find the numbers you used pretty convincing of the argument anyway. That's a lot of quarterbacks. That most of them end up really good isn't a detraction, it's the premise of the argument. You win with a great QB you don't have to pay. Further, Brady skews the whole thing anyway, because he's never been paid like the 10x conference champion QB he is. The Patriots domination helps make the argument itself.
  7. OldSchoolSnapper
    How do you know that they didn't take positions before they broadcast their intentions on the internet? How do you know that there wasn't backroom conversation offline before they posted or about when to sell? Because they said so? Because it's on Reddit? They certainly don't have to pool their money for it to be illegal. This has been going on since the fall of 2019 and the original poster was talking to almost nobody for the first year. It's not until very recently that this took off. He's held the stock in the face of millions of dollars of daily losses. There isn't a sell signal. I noticed he sold some today to prevent being at a total loss but he's consistently held or purchased. You're reaching here.
  8. OldSchoolSnapper
    The key word is when withdrawing. Your pre-tax account withdrawals are taxed. What he's saying is correct. If the tax rates are identical, the after-tax value of both accounts is exactly the same. You can run this through a calculator and it will always be the case.
  9. OldSchoolSnapper
    Everyone, not just Favre, threw more picks though. The analytics weren't there and it was ok to throw 20 picks if you threw 30 TDs. Interceptions are seen for the game-turning play they are now, which has led to a generation where the best quarterbacks aren't allowed to throw them. Drew Lock led the league with 15 picks. In 1996, 21 players threw 13+. Truthfully, he's the top INT guy because he never missed any games, the next reason is he took a lot of chances.
  10. OldSchoolSnapper
    It's getting silly now. Rodgers said he sees himself back, the coaches love him and the president said they'd be idiots. This leaves about one guy this could be about. Just feels like ESPN milking a golden cow.
  11. OldSchoolSnapper
    I love Aaron Rodgers but you would have to be stupid not to do this if you were Green Bay.
  12. OldSchoolSnapper
    This is empirically false. For most young people, Roth is almost always the best option. As you age and advance in your career, traditional IRAs start to make more sense. Generally I would say above the 24% tax bracket the traditional starts to really break away. The brackets 15% and below make up more than 3/4 of the US tax base and Roth is a slam dunk winner there. There are exceptions to every rule and so many variables that everyone really needs to research this for themselves (what state you will retire in, what kind of income mobility you expect over your career, etc.) and there are other benefits of Roth which make it attractive to lower bracket households. They can tap into the contributions for any reason at any time without penalty, which is not ideal, but they are the folks most likely to need it. But the statement that "most" people will do "far" better in a traditional just isn't true. Even if you take out the 0% bracket, which is a lot of people who probably don't have this choice to make, the 10 and 15% still comprise the majority of the tax base. For households at median and probably up to twice that, my advice would be to have a traditional 401k if offered at work, and max out a Roth, and do checkups at life stages to see if conversions make sense. The only thing that's "almost always" true is a that Roth is superior for young people.
  13. OldSchoolSnapper
    Pettine by far. You can still blame the players for giving up points after a punt. I guess you can still directly blame King, but Pettine directly gave up points.
  14. OldSchoolSnapper
    Is there a big trick to ST besides run down the field and converge, and block and make a wedge? I think it's more players than 'scheme' but someone's head has to roll. I always thought the challenge of ST is that you're usually dealing with borderline roster types, undrafted FAs, etc. And the job is really getting the most out of marginally talented players. Could be someone with a knack for motivating younger players and just hasn't had the opportunity yet.
  15. OldSchoolSnapper
    The Athletic did an article on that exact thing yesterday but it's paywalled obviously. I don't think any team will give up a 1st. Given that the Packers pick late, #62 would be my guess, maybe #62 and a 4th or something and even that sounds hefty to me. If they're interested there's no way they can't find a way to do that. It's one season with a $17 million cap hit. I would not be totally shocked if it ends just being a 3rd. All it takes is one other team to raise the price and I can't believe there would be fewer than 5 teams interested in a dice roll on Watt. Of course he wants to go to a winner, so the teams are limited. I'd guess it's unlikely because it's just not the sort of thing the Packers do. I won't blame them if they'd rather stay away, but it's one of those moves that if it works...and you get one great 8-game stretch, he can be a difference maker. I'd be tempted to really limit his snap count until later in the year.
  16. OldSchoolSnapper
    Small, nit-picky thing. This is 95% true, but it was the new board member hires from Chewy (has done very well) about 2 weeks ago that kicked this into high gear.
  17. OldSchoolSnapper
    Watson has predictably asked out of HOU with Watt almost sure to follow eventually and make that public/official.
  18. OldSchoolSnapper
    MVS is 6'4, Lazard is 6'5, Funchess is 6'4. A shifty slot WR like Tavon Austin but without the fumblitis would look nice.
  19. OldSchoolSnapper
    The eras are vastly different, but it's not that it wasn't a passing league. At least the front 9 of Favre's career is way different. 30 TDs was a benchmark, so was 3,000 yards. It was an achievement if you did that. Philip Rivers ranked 17th this year with 24 TDs. He would be 7th in the league in 1998 and 4th in 1999. 12 QBs threw for 4,000 yards this year. There were 2 in 1998, Favre and Young. Interceptions were also much more forgivable at the time. Throwing 31 TDs and 24 INTs got Brett Favre into the Pro Bowl. If you did that now and were not an established star, there would be rumors about the team trying to replace you. Jameis Winston threw 33 TDs last year, and for that he became a backup QB. Even with the 30 INTs, that just would never have happened 20 years ago.
  20. OldSchoolSnapper
    When you lay it out like that it isn't surprising I guess. I must have just remembered Ed Donatell getting a lot of sacks/TOs for a year or two. One of the annoying things to me has been that the offense and defense never have seemed to gel in the same season, and I should have said it that way. It's only happened 3 times that I remember, 2013 (the numbers are bad but I remember them looking solid before Rodgers got hurt), 2014, and this year to some extent. 2014 was arguably the best team they've had under Rodgers...it is jus such a shame. 2010 was mostly a defensive team and it wasn't until much later their offense found its stride. 2011 was an awful defense, 2012 was the year Kap ran for 200 yards in the playoffs. My only real exception to that list is 2016. I didn't know their sack and int totals were so favorable, but that defense was baaaaaad. The offense was not very good either until the 'run the table' stuff. 2015 stands out as the one season I remember the defense far outplaying the offense. '17 and '18 were not great on either side.
  21. OldSchoolSnapper
    What Peavey just alluded to is why it doesn't typically come down to this. The recent trend is to get bang for your buck off the one position you have to pay a ton to eventually. So you utilize the cheap years and surround them with talent everywhere. The curveball I can think of is that Love hits FA, Rodgers retires or leaves that same year. He's a FA and the job is his, but what kind of deal does he get if he's never played a game? I'd guess in such a scenario the Packers would extend him during the previous season and then leave Rodgers no choice. But it's interesting to me to wonder what kind of money a 1st round pick would get going onto his 2nd deal without ever really playing. I don't know that that has ever happened before.
  22. OldSchoolSnapper
    This has been pointed out, but Love sitting on the bench for the duration of this contract doesn't make his contract a waste. It is a luxury to have a day one draft pick for a back-up QB and comes at a better value than paying somebody like Chad Henne. Yeah he might suck, but until you know that it is a decent problem to have.
  23. OldSchoolSnapper
    Did most voters really have that view on him, or did they know at the time that the public view was false? If the voters of that time period knew the true story about Ty Cobb, then it wouldn't have been an issue. Actually that's a good point, what I think is most likely is that they didn't know or didn't care seeing as he was elected in 1936. The false reputation came later, I think in the 60s from Al Stump. In any case, even if Stump's stories were accurate (they're not), that wouldn't have stopped anybody from voting Cobb in back in 1936.
  24. OldSchoolSnapper
    I've also read the Cobb bio, my point was that he got in despite that reputation. It's safe say when he was elected for the Hall most voters had that view of him and put him in anyway.
  25. OldSchoolSnapper
    Would have loved for the Packers to ever have the kind of ball-hawk defenses they had in the 2000s during Rodgers's career. They were almost always a middle of the road, bend but don't break defense got a lot of sacks and picks.
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