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interestobserver

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Everything posted by interestobserver

  1. interestobserver
    That's why I said Holt from the Mets. They need a first baseman. Holt is a 22 year old who can hit upper 90's and hold his fastball deep into games. He's a top fifty prospect and has been climbing the rankings in AA. If he finishes strong, he'd be a potential ace and his worst outcome would be a live late game reliever. Ike Davis is a first baseman at AA with a great glove and some pop. They wouldn't need him if they had Prince. Parnell is a late game reliever who has broken 100 in a game situation. Tex and Fielder are about equal on value. Tex had the better glove, Fielder is a better hitter. However the Braves way overpaid and that trade is now recognized as a mistake. If you want to gauge Fielder's value, why not look at what Atlanta got back the next year, which is not a heck of a lot. Also, as bad a trade as it was for Atlanta at the time, those prospects increasing in value made the return seem higher for Texas in retrospect. Atlanta also thought they may have been able to get Tex at a hometown discount that wasn't available to the Rangers, but Boras doesn't do that. Plus their gm was retiring and wanted to go out with a bang.
  2. interestobserver
    I'm thinking of a deal to the Mets in the offseason. Mets give up Holt, who's got a live fastball and is one of their top prospects in AA, Parnell, and Ike Davis. Ike Davis was their first round draft choice last year. He is in AA. After a slow start last year adjusting to wood bats, he's found his power stroke with a 900 ops at AA. He's got speed, a gun for an arm, so he could move to right, and a very good glove.
  3. interestobserver
    Trading Prince in the offseason only made sense when they had LaPorta. The Brewers lose Sheets and Sabathia in the offseason and can afford to lock up Fielder. If not, they can trade him after 2009.
  4. interestobserver
    Brewers win the division. I'm calling it now.
  5. interestobserver
    Suppan was never that good to begin with. He had a great playoff run in 06, but other than that was never anything special. No one wants to take on that contract, so the Brewers are probably stuck with him. At least he's not Zito.
  6. interestobserver
    Every year the same thing. Manny doesn't really want to go and the Sox don't have another impact bat. They may let him go in the offseason, since he's in decline and always was a lousy fielder even in his best day. The Mets would take him and is salary, but they wouldn't give back major talent, so I doubt the Sox do it.
  7. interestobserver
    Mets Fernando Martinez - Not available unless it's for an impact player who is controllable. Say a Prince Fielder. Jonathon Niese - Polished AA lefty who could be a three. Parnell - Hard throwing AA righty with more upside, less polish. Could be a two and will be a live arm for the bullpen at a minimum. Kunz - Hard throwing reliever taken out of college last year. Could be a closer and will almost certainly be a good setup guy. Mike Carp, Nick Evans, and Dan Murphy - All good hitting AA guys who have been moved around the infield and outfield. Could all be serviceable major leaguers. Nick Evans has spent some time with the parent club. Omar has said Martinez and Niese are untouchable and Parnell and Kunz are almost untouchable. He means it with Fernando, they other three he's raising the price. However mediocre rentals like Ibanez won't get that kind of talent. They also have some very promising teenagers at A+ or lower who they don't want to part with and don't have enough trade value yet.
  8. interestobserver
    You either get to dump salary or have talent coming back. Not both.
  9. interestobserver
    Then you would be fired.
  10. interestobserver
    The Mariners need to sell tickets and would have to be blown away for Ichiro. Even then I doubt they're going to do it. No team will trade away an ace or even a potential ace. Hernandez and Kershaw are not moving. They're two of the best building blocks in baseball. It doesn't matter what the Brewers offer.
  11. interestobserver
    Giving up three starters and their two best box office draws for one starter is not the way to get better. Ichiro is on the downside, but has plenty left. Sexson they'd move, but a half year contract won't cripple the Mariners. To get Hernandez I think it would take Fielder and Braun with a decent prospect coming back the other way.
  12. interestobserver
    Upton is the only player I may trade straight up for Hernandez. Even then I have my doubts. He ain't moving. Players move if they're a head case, a money problem, don't fit a need, or to fill a greater need. First base is relatively easy to fill. Left handed starting ace is impossible. Cheap and young is a dream. Remember Fielder would only be traded if he were judged expendable. Then the question becomes what he can bring back.
  13. interestobserver
    I think an 850's ops is pretty good for a rookie and probably a bridge too far. If he brings something else with the glove and on the bases, he makes up for some of that.
  14. interestobserver
    That explains why the Brewers do it. However why would Seattle? They're not getting a healthy young Sheets. In fact they're not getting any Sheets. Felix is probably the best young pitcher in baseball and he's not a prospect. He's a sure thing. You sign those guys long term. Never give them up.
  15. interestobserver
    Why would anybody trade a King for a Prince?
  16. interestobserver
    Trading him in this offseason or the next IS the way to maximize his return. I doubt Fielder hits 50 every year, but he's a threat to hit 40. If he can keep the average at 280 and draw walks, he's an offensive force. On the downside, he's already the size of a small house, has no speed, and is a defensive liability. Guys rarely get quicker or slimmer as they age. Prince should get Howard numbers of at least $10 million next year. The Brewers are well aware of this mixed picture, which is why they haven't signed him yet. Personally, I'd take the risk and give him one seven year contract, but unless he's a well attending member of weight watchers, I'd never resign him. If he is traded, the question is what his value is. Paradoxically the mere fact he is being mentioned diminishes his value. Three years of contract flexibility has some real value. The return won't be a top of the rotation starter. Every message board mentions an ace as a return for their players. However any team with one of these guys refuses to give them up. The only way they become available at all is in their walk year, or before they prove they're top of the rotation. Guys like a Kershaw or Billingsley aren't going anywhere. That leaves a package of prospects, stars in their walk year, or a couple of good major leaguers with a prospect thrown in.
  17. interestobserver
    Pitchers can bust easily, especially at 16. Very few of the IFA bonus babies have been that incredible and the ones that have panned out are as likely to be low dollar signees. Guys are still growing at that age. Jose Reyes got a 20k bonus and had a hard time getting that.
  18. interestobserver
    No, I'd probably put Maine, Church, or Pelfrey in there. But they would be the centerpiece, meaning I'd take Fernando out. The only prospects in this decade the Mets have had on par with Fernando are Wright, Reyes, and Kazmir and it would have been a mistake to send any of them for Fielder. Remember the ONLY reason Fielder would even be traded is money. He's entering his expensive years and guys like him tend not to be productive much beyond thirty. He has Mo Vaughn written all over him. The Fielder before his first year was much more valuable. Reyes and Wright keep higher value because both are signed to team friendly contracts. So is Church which is an added plus. That's the reason Kershaw or David Price won't come. You can't argue pure talent for talent and exclude dollars.
  19. interestobserver
    Even with Prince being a couple of years younger than LaPorta would be, I'd be leery of projecting his replacement to hit the same stats. Even if he did, obviously it's unlikely he hits the same growth rate. Everybody wants a young top of the rotation starter. Only the Mets were dumb enough to give one away. Since the Kazmir debacle and the fury that immediately ensued, no one trades those guys away. You can forget about getting Kershaw. As good and as young as Prince is, overweight, one dimensional first basemen have a lot less market value than other positions. Throw in that he's about to get expensive and the choice is down to either good prospects, or other good, but nearing walk year players. Texiara being a FA could also hurt his trade value. The best move is probably to keep him and give him a five to seven year contract. After that, you're probably in his post Red Sox Mo Vaughn years and you'd be better off letting him walk over to a DH spot.
  20. interestobserver
    The average is about right for a first year guy, but he may not hit with that power right out of the bat.
  21. interestobserver
    Yeah, that may be. Reyes and Wright are two of the most valuable players in baseball because of their combination of age, skill, and contract situation. They'd be the last players the Mets would move. If the Brewers really are win now and have three years left, the best time to trade Prince may be after the 09 season. That could change if they lock up Sheets and can't afford Prince in arby, especially if LaPorta is ready. Fernando was out due to an injury and came back on fire. If he stays hot, I'd doubt the Mets would trade him for anyone, even Prince. He's four years younger than LaPorta and at the same level, although the power isn't there yet.
  22. interestobserver
    More upside, but a huge risk. The A's won the bidding by putting all their eggs in one basket.
  23. interestobserver
    That package is at least as good as the one the Tigers got for Cabrera. The Mets were ready to walk on Santana rather than shipping Fernando. By the end of the year I think he'll have more value than Maine or Pelfrey.
  24. interestobserver
    I posted this in another thread, but it seems like it should go here. Mets fan here. I had read the rumors of Prince Fielder potentially being available in the NY Post. I doubt any trade would happen before the off season, but I thought the Mets could be in the bidding. The Brewers would only trade Prince if they didn't want to give him a long term deal and wanted to get more value by moving him now. Next year he's arbitration eligible and due for a big raise. The players I'd remove would from consideration would be Wright Reyes Santana Maine Church Beltran Pelfrey So that's basically a cheaper prospects for arbitration eligible expensive player. So would the Brewers take Fernando Martinez, Mike Carp, and Jon Niese for Prince? All are about major league ready by the end of the year being in AA currently. Fernando is the Mets top prospect and is 19 in AA. Carp is a lefty first baseman that has reestablished himself after an injury lost year last year and is putting together a nice offensive year. Niese is a lefty who is one of the younger pitchers in his league and doing very well with nice peripherals.
  25. interestobserver
    Mets fan here. I had read the rumors of Prince Fielder potentially being available in the NY Post. I doubt any trade would happen before the off season, but I thought the Mets could be in the bidding. The Brewers would only trade Prince if they didn't want to give him a long term deal and wanted to get more value by moving him now. Next year he's arbitration eligible and due for a big raise. The players I'd remove would from consideration would be Wright Reyes Santana Maine Church Beltran Pelfrey So that's basically a cheaper prospects for arbitration eligible expensive player. So would the Brewers take Fernando Martinez, Mike Carp, and Jon Niese for Prince? All are about major league ready by the end of the year being in AA currently. Fernando is the Mets top prospect and is 19 in AA. Carp is a lefty first baseman that has reestablished himself after an injury lost year last year and is putting together a nice offensive year. Niese is a lefty who is one of the younger pitchers in his league and doing very well with nice peripherals.
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