Yss the second scenario is 2 outs no one on base 2 run lead So it's flawed? I mean, what is it if Segura was on 1st with 1 out and a run in? That scenario is assuming Segura would of been out at 1st. Its not flawed because that is very unlikely, a suicide bunter doesnt try to run at all and usually lays down a terrible bunt to the pitcher. Anyways your scenario raises it to 82%, 7% increase, so you are saying 94/100 times Segura would get the bunt down and be safe at first