topper09er
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Everything posted by topper09er
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He would get a triple if thats where he ran to. A few similar examples come to mind: In the famous Harvey Haddix 12 inn perfect game, in the bottom of the 13th with Felix Mantilla on 2nd and Hank Aaron on first, Joe Adcock hit a walk-off HR, but after the run scored Hank Aaron went to celebrate with adcock between 2nd and 3rd causing Adcock to pass Aaron and be called out and credited with a double. Game 5 of 1999 NLCS, with the game tied and the bases loaded Robin Ventura hit a walk-off granny but stopped after first to celebrate and only got a 1 RBI single. -
It would only be a CS if the runner at any point was trying to advance to the next base. If the runner just takes a leadoff and is out trying to get back to first it is scored a PO 2-3 in the scorecard. This rule actually costs pitchers many pickoffs because if the runner realizes he is out and goes to second it is a CS. A way to remember it is you can only give a CS if they runner would have been given a stolen base if he was safe, which is not the case here.
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"One of the biggest Sabrmetric cons out there is the notion that you need a 75% success rate stealing bases to help your team. These are the actual era break-even values for SB% that Palmer’s model came up with: 1901-1920: ~62.5% 1921-1940: ~64% 1941-1960: ~65.5% 1961-1977: ~63% That averages to about 63.5% from 1900-1977. In this offensive era of ours, the percentage is probably right around 66.6% -- 2/3 rather than the ¾ that stolen base naysayers would have you believe." http://baseballevolution.com/keith/linearw.html
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Depending on where you look it is a little different but the threshold is more like 66%, 2 SB for every 3 trys is the cuttoff. Almost all base stealers, including the brewers mentioned here, are above that rate.
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Its a pickoff by the catcher, they can have pickoffs too. I think Pudge Rodriguez has the most career with 81.
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This is clearly false, if you look at every possibel stolen base situation and you assume the runner advances it ALWAYS increased a teams chances of scoring runs. http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/07/empirical_analy_1.php You are talking about the correlation between runs scored over an entire season with stolen bases for a team. This correlation is low because runs are most strongly correlated with OPS so they follow that trend and number of stolen bases do not always correlate well with OPS so runs and SBs have a lot of scatter. However, just because leading the league in SB will not cause you to lead the league in runs does not mean they will never cause you gain some runs. They only weakly correlate to runs over a long season. This is where good managing can come into the picture, just because you know you should not run at every oppurtunity does mean there are no good oppurtunities to run. Example, base stealer on first, 2 outs, Counsell up. The chances of scoring from 1st are much less that from second since Counsell is mostly a singles hitter. The famous RoSox Dave Roberts stolen base in game 4 of the 2004 ALCS added 10% win probability, which is much, much higher than an average stolen base. That is an example of a good manager knowing when to take advantage of the stolen base. The reason Macha is a horrible manager is because he just plays it safe all the time. He knows overall you should not steal a lot so he just decides to never steal because he cant figure out the times when you actually should, thus making him a terrible manager.
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Ryan Braun 2010: ___Split G PA SB CS First Pitch 58 71 2 0 1-0 Count 29 33 2 0 2-0 Count 05 05 0 0 3-0 Count 08 08 0 0 0-1 Count 40 44 2 0 1-1 Count 36 40 0 0 2-1 Count 27 33 3 2 3-1 Count 21 24 0 0 0-2 Count 27 32 1 0 1-2 Count 49 63 3 1 2-2 Count 44 55 0 0 Full Count 53 62 0 0 Braun has 16 SB attempts and has 2 on the first pitch 4 on the second pitch 1 on the third pitch 9 on the fourth pitch 0 else So it seems like he actually is running fairly early in the count, although this is just 1 example.
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It looked like on Gameday Soto just missed a HR due to the wind earlier in the game. Hawkins falls behind 3-0 and then throws the same fastball twice.
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All pitchers have to pitch in situations that they didnt get into themselves, and the good ones can still perform well in them.
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Except when he needed it the most on a 0-2 count with 2 outs and the tying run at 3rd.
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What a surprise, Manny gives up 4 6 runs in 5.2 innings.
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0-2 Parra throws a splitter at the belt
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I didnt realize Castro is the first player born in the 90s
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4 pitch walk to the pitcher plus an error, at least we took advantage
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How did Edmonds get to 2nd, the ball must still be in the ivy
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Well I guess not but I like the bunt idea, now he is 9 for his last 12 with 9 singles.
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Well now the Brewers are behind and Braun has already walked, can he remain patient?
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I think he said he never had any job other than playing baseball a day in his life.
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Was it even close? Perfect throw?
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Do you fit Casey McGehee into your long-term plans?
topper09er replied to bill hAll Star's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Thank you And That -
This guy had an OK day in college, 7-7, 6 HR, 16 RBI.... 1 solo HR, 1 2R HR, 3 3R HRs, 1 GS and a lousy single for 25 TBhttp://www.seminoles.com/sports/m-basebl/recaps/050999aab.html It has never happened in the majors but there have been several ABs where it was possible, I know Geoff Jenkins had a chance at it in this game http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIL/MIL200104280.shtml He had a sole, 2R and 3R and then struck out LOOKING with the bases loaded in the 7th.
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Do you fit Casey McGehee into your long-term plans?
topper09er replied to bill hAll Star's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
McGehee is another missed trade high oppurtunity by Melvin, should have been traded in the off season after his near ROY season. He could be a decent DH for a while for some team. Gamel should be at 3rd. -
You can actually get double splits on MLB.com but not game by game.http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_splits.jsp?c_id=mil&playerID=425902&sitSplit1=rsp&statType=1&splitSet=1&statSet=1 Prince in July with RISP: G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG 11 10 5 3 1 0 0 4 4 5 4 0 0 .533 .400 .300
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Agree 100%, I was gonig to say I dont even blame Rickie for that because by that was a free run for Counsell and he was only held because there were 0 outs. Fischer is terrible, its like he doesnt even watch the ball, if theres 0 outs its an automatic hold.
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2 days in a row McGehee jogging on the bases. Braun or someone needs to get in his face and tell him the only easy thing to do in baseball is run. After the ball got through the infield he was looking back at the centerfielder instead of running as fast as he can and watching the 3B coach.
