Funketown

The offense has been fine up to this point, my concern is primarily what happens during this 15 games w/o Ramirez (or Braun when he inevitably spends a few days off again). Looking at the lineup I keep thinking it looks terrible, but Zips wRC+ projections for the injury lineup look pretty solid: Gomez 121 Gennett 92 Braun 148 Lucroy 115 Reynolds 122 Davis 109 Overbay 87 Segura 98 Some of these (Reynolds/Segura) seem a bit overly optimistic, but overall I don't think it's as unreasonable as I initially thought to see decent production out of this lineup.

Something curious I noticed about K-Rod is that his FB velocity is way down this year -- it was 91.4 last season but only 89.6 this season. Somehow, they just need to find a way to keep winning while Ramirez, Braun, and Gomez are battling injuries. Fortunately the 25-14 start means there's a very good chance we'll be watching important baseball at least through the rest of the summer, and even if (when) they struggle through a stretch of baseball, they'll have a good chance at making the playoffs.

Since 2013, Gomez is 3rd in fWAR (9.4), trailing only Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen. He was also fairly productive in 2012 offensively, which I'd forgotten. What's amazing to me with Gomez is how horrendous he was at the plate for such a long time. From 2007-2011, he posted a line of .243/.291/.357/.648 (OPS+ 73) in ~1,700 PA's. His line from 2012-2014 is .276/.330/.496/.827 (OPS+ 121) in ~1,200 PA's. Just gotta stay healthy...

Weeks from 2012 - 2014: .226/.322/.386/.705 in 1124 PA's, with 0.8 fWAR. Gennett from 2013 - 2014: .309/.342/.452/.794 in 358 PA's, with 2.5 fWAR. Weeks has 126 games left and needs another 352 PA's for the $1MM buyout. Unless Gennett gets hurt or Weeks plays somewhere other than 2B, they're almost certainly not going to have to pay that.

Fangraphs playoff odds up to 63%, division odds up to 46%.

For your viewing pleasure: http://deadspin.com/what-if-all-baseball-players-were-fat-1567600912?utm_source=recirculation&utm_medium=recirculation&utm_campaign=fridayPM

Legend is Jim Valvano made a deal with the devil for NC State's 1983 title, and State has suffered over the past thirty years. Seems Calipari might have struck the same deal this season, and all I can hope for is that Kentucky goes into a similar 30-year stretch of irrelevance. I'm not really a Wisconsin fan anymore (I'll cheer for them once Carolina loses), but I really think they're a significantly better team than Kentucky. I watched Kentucky a lot this season, especially as they struggled through a weak SEC this season, and I was never particularly impressed (like everybody who watched them this season). They're playing well right now, but if they win the title they will be one of the worst title teams ever (as a college team, not as NBA prospects go), and the same goes for UConn.

Take that, Yankees!

Brewers' first baseman Lyle Overbay faces another thrilling matchup with SP Aaron Harang. Thankfully it's 2004 and we have Prince Fielder mashing in the minors...

We dun like yer kind round here. Nothing like the first day game and win to prevent me from getting anything done this afternoon!

Yeah, but you shoulda seen that cactus! As expected, 0.00 ERA, 100% winning percentage. Now, if the offense just gets it going...

I have plenty of time in my life to be reasonable. Fandom is a place for blind optimism! Record: 91-71 All Star: Braun, Lucroy Surprise: Ramirez plays 140 games Disappointment: Cardinals win greatest fans in the world award Playoffs: Wildcard NL: Brewers, Dodgers, Nationals, Cardinals, Braves AL: Trouts, Rangers, Red Sox, Tigers, Rays World Series: Rangers over Dodgers

Kentucky shot 31.8% from beyond the arc this season. Odds are they won't hit threes like they did against Michigan (7/11). They're a talented team, but on the level weaker than a typical final four opponent.

Sounds like Smart to Marquette is nowhere near a done deal.

Maybe the best for mens athletics, but the ACC has something like 75% of all titles Womens Soccer and Field Hockey. Probably similar with West coast and water polo.

VaTech has to be a brutal place to recruit...

Kenpom has Mercer like a mid-tier ACC team, they're pretty solid. Not that I'm defending dook. But Mercer and NCCU both looked like they could win a game in the tourney. K has now lost to a 14 and a 15 in the past three years.

No shocking upsets, but really a fun day of basketball. I finally went to bed around 12 ET a few minutes into the second half of the UL game because my iPad's NCAA app stopped streaming for me. My primary thoughts... - NC State lost that game in a way you wouldn't wish upon your worst enemy. Just brutal. St. Louis was a pretty weak #5 seed (Kenpom #30 or so), so I thought TJ Warren might pull that game out. Amazingly, St. Louis was worse from the FT line than State (54% vs. 42%). - Pittsburgh can beat Florida. They've given lots of good teams fits (UVA x2, Syracuse x2, UNC x2, Cincinnati) even when they haven't one. If I'm a Florida fan, I'm more worried about losing to Pittsburgh than losing to either UCLA or VCU. - Sim Bhullar (7'5", 350 Sophomore for NMSU) is really amazing to watch. He makes a 6'10" center look tiny. Best yet, his brother Tanveer (little guy at 7'3" 335) is a redshirt Freshman. I need to remember to watch some NMSU action on ESPN3 next year when they're both on the court. - Tennessee vs. UMass might be the most lopsided 11 vs. 6 I've ever seen in favor of the 11.

This bracket seems wonkier than usual, but maybe that's just me. Wellman seemed to contradict himself about 40 times in his three minutes last night (Louisville got a low seed because they look at the whole picture. Other teams got into the tournament for good recent play). But, I guess that's to be expected for the guy who still hasn't fired Jeff Bzdelik http://firebz.com/FireBz/WellmanOut.html. Brutal draw for Wichita State; that region would make much more sense with Louisville #3 and Duke #4. Honestly though for Louisville they have a pretty manageable path with St. Louis and then Wichita State, who is clearly very good but still has to be considered a bit of a wildcard. I don't really have any idea what the committee saw in NC State outside of having one player who is really fun to watch (Warren), but maybe that's enough to make for an interesting play-in game. Kenpom has them 66th behind about a dozen teams who missed the tourney. They finished in a 3-way tie for 7th at 9-9 in the ACC, and they were 5-5 in their last 10 with blowout losses to Miami and @Clemson. I don't know what to do with the bottom half of Florida's regional. Kansas has looked pretty unimpressive without Embiid, and Syracuse has looked horrendous in the last month. I've got Kansas losing to Florida in the final, but I don't like it. I think the toughest final four picks are what to do with Mich St vs. UVA and Louisville vs. the rest of the regional. I've got UVA, but I'll be quite surprised if anybody from the bottom of UVA's bracket makes it to the final four. Ah well, this ought to be good.

It's also just a matter of population growth. The Research Triangle area (Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill) has nearly doubled in population since 2000 to about 2,000,000 people today, so highways tend to get fairly congested during rush hours even when the weather is good. Also, given that most of those million transplants are coming from the Northeast, it's really not a matter of drivers not knowing what to do in the snow so much as the roads forming ice under the snow and the city having no way to clear the roads. But alas, it'll be back into the high 60's by next week, and I'm about ready to break out my sandals again.

...and that was certainly offsides.

It was just a mess. Campus announced at 12:00 that all classes after 1:00 would be cancelled, but offices would stay open until 5:00 PM. By 2:00 PM they shut down the entire campus, but the buses had already stopped running. UNC sent out an official email at 5:28 telling students there would be free entry and open seating to the game (which was still on!), and then at about 5:40 gave official word that the game was indeed cancelled. But, I'm not complaining because I've got a day to stay home and build my two year old a snowman (getting another 2-4 inches today).

6.6 inches in Chapel Hill. Duke couldn't make it the 7 miles for the game tonight!

Pedobear finds jersey. Still missing pants.

UNC and Duke are now 1-5 combined in the ACC. UNC was never a serious contender without Hairston, and Duke can probably be crossed off that list at this point too. Syracuse is the only team that has a title shot out of the ACC, I wouldn't be completely shocked if they run the table (and in classic Syracuse fashion bow out in the Sweet 16). I'll be surprised if the title goes to a blue-blood with Kentucky and Kansas struggling as well. Wichita State has a very good chance at entering the tourney, so seeding could be interesting for them.