Flood Pants
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Everything posted by Flood Pants
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Let's put this into perespective. I'll throw out Pinero as a comparison because he's likely to be a top free agent target. Cameron's VORP on offense this year (his runs above replacement level) was 26.5, Pinero's was 35.4. Which means, if Cameron prevented at least 9 more runs from scoring than his potential replacement would (which I understand could be a stretch), the move would be a wash. Even if Cameron is worth just a few runs above replacement (which he certainly must be), the move would have minimal impact. UNLESS Cameron is replaced with somebody who is similar to him in quality. Somebody who the Brewers don't have, so that would also require spending money. This, combined with that Pinero had a career year that he's unlikely to beat, and he'll be one of the best free agent targets. There's no pitcher out there they can sign that will be worth more to this team than Cameron. Maybe they can top him through a trade, but doubtful through the free agency.
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How much would the pitching have to improve to offset the loss of Cameron's glove? The difference between Cameron and just about anyone else in CF is significant. Plus we'd be losing the runs he contributes on offense. The net gain in run differential might be minimal if he were replaced with a similarly-priced pitcher. Catch-22 here. Can't afford to pay him, can't afford to lose him. I sure hope he's willing to take a pay cut.
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These numbers don't suggest that he's "good." Merely that his defense no longer subtracts runs from his net worth. Average at best. Which is still a huge improvement over where he started. In a Pujols-less league, Prince would be a legitimate MVP candidate. I'd love to see the Brewers go to lengths to retain him, and Melvin seems to be one of the better negotiators in the game. Maybe he can call in the favor owed to him from signing the Gagne contract.
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Do we have competitive balance right now?
Flood Pants replied to Invader3K's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The single biggest improvement MLB can make to competitive balance is to restructure the playoff system, as the article suggests. Let's compare to the NFL. Each individual team is only competing with three other teams for a division title. And if they don't win the division, there's still two chances to win a wild card spot. In MLB, most teams are competing with 4 other teams (or in the case of the Brewers, 5 other teams) for that division title, with only one chance to get in as a wildcard. On day 1 of the season, any individual NFL team is more likely to make the playoffs than any individual MLB team. Regardless of salary cap, coaching, revenue sharing, or any other factors. Plus, in the MLB, there's a greater disparity between the winning teams and losing teams, so if MLB expanded the playoffs, they probably wouldn't have the NFL's issue of teams getting in without posting a winning record. -
Hoffman amazes me. Early 40's, and he still put up a season better than his career numbers. During what should be well beyond his decline phase. We have one of the greatest relief pitchers ever, and it only took one day after the season to negotiate with him. He WANTS to be here. My avatar says it all about this deal.
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True, Boston can outspend most teams, which gives them an inherent advantage. However, that was the case for many years, and it didn't get them a championship. They spent big money on flawed teams. The key difference for them was adopting a stat-minded approach to player analysis and then hiring Epstein to implement it. They analyzed their game plan, realized that it wasn't working, and changed. (remember, they were about to hire Billy Beane as their GM. They learned their business plan from the smallest of small budget teams). This is why they are a model franchise. They built their championship teams on some strong draft picks (ex. Youkilis), jumping on some undervalued talent (Ortiz), and making some shrewd trades (Schilling, Beckett, Lowell). The money has certainly helped keep them on top, as they've been able to largely keep their team together. But they didn't build their team by throwing money around. The Brewers will never be able to spend money like Boston, but they certainly can learn to analyze talent like they do.
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Macha is puzzling. He seems to want to be a "stat guy", and that shows in his decisions not to bunt much or steal many bases. Yet, he makes moves that no manager, stathead or otherwise, in the right mind should make (i.e. batting Kendall leadoff). He seems confused about his own philosophy. If he wants to be a stat guy, great! If Melvin wants a stat guy, great! I want one too. But he needs to more consistently be a stat guy. We could certainly do worse than Macha as manager again. Heck, as long as he never intentionally walks Ryan Howard with Brian Shouse on the moud, we're cool.
