HiAndTight

THREE relievers are making 13 million or more a year. Jensen, Chapman, and Kimbrel. Dodgers, Yankees, and Cubs. So, yeah, probably 3 or 4 teams that MIGHT want to offer a reliever around 20 million...in 4 years...if he pitches as he did a couple of years ago. And, again, if there is still a QO. I really doubt it's even crossing Arnold or Stearns mind at this point. On top of ALL the other reasons, we're also talking about a pick that probably wouldn't be a Brewer until 2029-2030. When you keep adding all this up, it just seems less and less reasonable that it'd be a consideration. When you're talking about trading a star player just before the deadline, that's when you factor in a potential qualifying offer.

Were they though? I'm fairly certain that viewership was down in 2020 despite the pandemic, and stadium attendance is kind of a drop in the bucket for viewership compared to the usual number of a television audience. Not like the NFL is hurting or anything but 2020 was a pretty weak year for sports viewing across the board. I probably should've looked before I "leaped". Ratings were down 7%. Given the lack of entertainment, people stuck at home, and people not watching in person (about 500k each week), I'd assumed it would've been up. I remember reading an article from earlier this year regarding the ratings. IIRC, the NFL actually sent out memo's to NFL teams telling them not to worry about it. I believe it was Forbes...but it was a while ago. Basically the arguments laid out in the article why the NFL was doing well were as follows(this is going to be a crude summary of an article I read a while back). 1-NFL viewership always goes down in Election year. This year it was down much less than it was in 2016. I believe it went down 14 pct in 2016 and then went back to normal after the election. This past year I believe it was down less than half of that through the election. 2-There are more people streaming and watching online, so the ratings don't give an accurate representation. Not sure I understand that one because they should be able to track online streaming just as well as TV viewership. 3-It was the first time ever you had all Major Sports playing at the same time, so that created a bit of an outlier in which there was actually more viewing options for sports and a shorter time period where the NFL was dominant. 4-As better becomes more popular, they expect the NFL to grow in popularity. They also talked about how protests and social justice issues DID drive some people away and were impacting their ratings as well. I tried searching for the article I read and I found some that touch on some of these points...not positive what this means long term for the NFL, but they seem to be in good shape at least short term.

Sure, they really can sign pretty much anyone and make it work...some just start getting more and more unrealistic. When I first hear 15-16 for JJ, I guess I was thinking a 2-3 year type deal, but he's just 31, so you're right. No reason it has to be that short. I definitely wouldn't do 5/100, but 4/64? I think that'd really be worth it. It would be a 3 yr deal. The last two years are window dressing, and will never happen. So then something like 3/46 with 15 guaranteed? Yeah, that would work also, but it's not like the Packers are where the Saints were last year. Their window isn't wide open, but it's open for more than just one year. And I get they could always restructure after next year. We'll see what it ends up being, but if it looked just like Smith's, that'd be fine. They'd have an out after two years, he'd still get his 15-16 in AAV. I think there's actually a decent chance this contract is already agreed upon. Maybe not the specifics, but the outline. The Packers may just be waiting to extend Adams and restructure Rodgers before announcing. That's obviously just a guess, but once I heard the Steelers and Browns were no longer in the running, it made sense. Watt has made a lot of money in the NFL and probably just as much in endorsements. Having a chance to come home and help put his "hometown" team over the top should appeal to him more than maximizing his last contract. Plus, TJ's probably gonna get 25+ per year,[sarcasm]so he can always borrow from little brother if he needs to. The one ya gotta feel sorryfor in that family is Derek![/sarcasm]

I do remember that. I think Infante was their Head Coach, so that probably helped him get another shot in the league. That was a pretty cool story. Going from that far down to coming back to play in the NFL...

I knew he'd gone on and had a lot of years with a lot of picks, but I wasn't old enough to see or understand what the problem was in GB. Looking at his stats and using PFR AV(annual value) which is a pretty crude way to evaluate how valuable a player was, but they've got him at 9, 8 and 11 AV and 10 picks through his first 3 years. For a point of reference, they have Jaire at 10 from last season. Obviously, INT's play a bigger role in that as Xavien Howard with 10 picks last year was worth 18 AV. So...again, it's flawed, but what was the reason we gave up on him at 23 years old. 23 years old, 12 picks in his first 50 games and the Packers just give T-Buck away for "future considerations" to the Dolphins. Was he really that bad? I know he held out....but is there any way they move on from a guy like that under this front office? He kinda reminds me of the Patience they showed Jermichael Finley, but I don't know if that's accurate. I do love the way things came full circle and how they broke the "Terrell Buckley" rule to draft the guy who's currently the best young CB in the NFL and who T-Buck literally coached in College.

I'd be willing to bet that it has been informally communicated to teams, but not publicly communicated because they are still trying to negotiate things with the player's union. Thus why teams have been told that it won't be below a certain level, but could be higher. Most reports made it sound like they wanted to wait until the TV deal was finished.

Sure, they really can sign pretty much anyone and make it work...some just start getting more and more unrealistic. When I first hear 15-16 for JJ, I guess I was thinking a 2-3 year type deal, but he's just 31, so you're right. No reason it has to be that short. I definitely wouldn't do 5/100, but 4/64? I think that'd really be worth it.

Same if we ended up starting a lesser CB there, too. T-Buck is only 49. Maybe he has some wheels left. Ha...T-Buck. Jaire Alexander's old position coach at Louisville and the reason Packers fans don't like smaller CB's(or didn't before Jaire). I don't remember real clearly how T-Buck left...I know he came in with a lot of controversies, but he becomes a pretty good CB in the NFL. Even with the Packers, he wasn't as bad as the jokes.

I don't think Alexander is going to be a big INT guy. Those guys tend to play in zone or they tend to play a little riskier(think Peters). Alexander is just relentless and doesn't bait QB's. Savage though, he could be a guy who gets 6-7 picks. The guy who'd probably benefit the most...if he were brought back, would be King. But I think most Packers fans have already buried that dude.

Hader makes a ton of sense for us as well... We can win the Central, then anything can happen in the playoffs. This can be very true. 7 game series and you get the best of Woodruff and Burnes twice plus Williams-Hader to complete games. The only turnover problem is at least 1 of those 2 wouldn't be ready for game 1/2 in next series. Be nice to see offense win a game the pitching matchups suggest you shouldn't. Think that's part of what Hader trades not happening is a result of. He's a benifit for playoff run for Milw who is what you'd trade for if you needed help at the position to make a playoff push. Exactly why you put an insane asking price to trade him away. As things stand he's 100pct going to be QO'd when his FA begins. You know that a low 30s draft pick is coming if nobody meets your asking price. And you get the best of him while he's cheap. It's always something that a trade simulator never inputs in to a trade value. That draft pick. Brewers could use the pick to value or they could use it towards a 1st pick that exceeds pick value who drops. Take a top 7 expected picked guy who falls to the 20s where Milw likely picks and drafts and pays the guy who likely after 13picks expected not to sign any more. Yet Milw does so. A top 7 guy could be a Gore for example who nobody expects Hader for Gore Straight-up to happen. Gore was 3rd pick in his draft so reasonable talent-draft fall comparison. That is an impressive justification for arguing we'll get a Gore like talent anyway, so we should demand so much more...I will give you that. A few giant leaps...like the assumption that we will offer him the QO, that he'll turn it down, we'll get a pick and in the draft of 2025, it'll be a guy who was a top 10 talent, but fell, and that's basically like Gore who was picked at 3. Is it really a given that we will even give a reliever the option to play for ~20 million for a year? Or that he'd turn it down and we wouldn't be stuck with that? That of course assumes he continues to pitch at the same level and doesn't see the league catch up to him or suffer any injuries.

They're so loaded though, they can afford to wait and see how their pen looks as the year goes on. They're pretty clearly the 2nd most talented team in the NL. Just given how volatile relievers are, it'd make more sense to wait and see who's throwing well a couple of months into this season or if they even need help. A guy like Gore could step up and play a huge role for them out of the pen this year if they wanted...or jump into the rotation. They have a ton of live arms, a loaded lineup, good enough starting pitching. I wouldn't give up much in the way of prospects at this point. Not when they've got a ton of power arms who could develop into studs as the season goes on. And if they don't, as I said, they'll always be able to add someone. They've got 5 months to figure out if they need help and who looks good/healthy enough to trade for. I do kinda hope we make a deal with them. Williams, Hader, whomever it may be. I'd like to see them go to a team I'll be rooting for this year. Not ahead of the Brewers of course, but damn...this team looks like they're going to be exciting.

I'm guessing this was leaked by his agent and no such offer exists. I have no proof of this. And I guarantee that's not guaranteed money. Easy to say the offer is $15M/year when the last two years average $25M/year in non-guaranteed salary and bonuses. If it exists, it's backloaded to the hilt. Something between what Preston Smith got and what Za'Darius Smith got would probably be doable for the Packers. Both had relatively small-cap hits early on and they didn't get a ton of guaranteed money. And the Packers could still count on getting two premium comp picks next year for Jones and Linsley since Watt wouldn't count against them. Another team that I'd kinda forgotten about though is Dallas. Jerry loves those long-term cap-friendly deals and Watt's already pretty damn big in Texas. And the Cowboys biggest need is probably along the DL.

Yeah, you're right. The fact that he just came off the 2nd highest snap total of his NFL Career and played just below an All Pro level...maybe 15 million per really isn't out of line, even in today's market. The back injuries that caused him to miss most of 2 seasons are now 4 and 5 seasons old. If the Packers only made one significant addition to this team....and lost their top FA's in Jones and Linsley, would you be happy with 'just' the addition of Watt and whomever they draft as their most significant additions?

Wouldn't the same be said about JJ Watt? He got into it with their HC. Yes. That organization is an unmitigated dumpster fire. It wasn't long ago they looked like they were a competent QB away from being a true contender. Just about when they drafted Watson. They had Clowney who was a star, the best defensive player in the league, they made good picks. They had back-to-back HOF WR'ers....and then they hired Bill O'Brien. Whoever was in charge of that team, it's pretty easy to look at when the decline started. 2017. The year before, playoffs with a below-average QB, the next year they get their franchise QB and both he and Watt suffer season-ending injuries and that QB, Tom Savage, suffers a concussion, the Texans skirt the NFL's concussion protocol and he suffers a seizure on the sideline. A sign of things to come with that clown O'Brien and their team Chaplain turned team dictator who JJ Watt referred to as an ____ing idiot, they managed to take a team that had enough talent to go up 24-0 on KC last year and just blow it up. I think they managed to pass up the Lions, Jets, the Washington Football team, the Knicks, whoever...all in about 24 months. I place the O/U for wins the next 10 years at about 40 for them. I'd be wondering what the hell was wrong with Watson if he was happy down there.

The only problem is most Packers fans would still be upset. I know a LOT of fans a generation older than me who still don't totally love Rodgers as a player because of how much they loved Favre. Also...while this obviously isn't going to happen, we'd also be able to throw this in the Bears fans faces. They never even talked to Watson....despite going out to North Carolina to meet with Trubisky, just a few hours away from Clemson. To be able to beat them for ANOTHER 15 years with a HOF QB they passed on in the draft...chefs kiss!

Exactly! That's why I'm trying...with little success to not get too excited about a potential signing. Justifying it by saying 3 players would be better. But if he signs a deal that we could afford for a team like Tampa...that's just gonna be a kick square in the gut. I really don't expect it to happen, but it makes so much sense on so many levels. Come Home JJ! Follow in Reggie's footsteps! The man would never have to pay for a beer in Wisconsin for as long as he lived. Hell, I'd even throw Derek on the tab!

I'm guessing this was leaked by his agent and no such offer exists. I have no proof of this. Since the NFLPA president is already urging the players and agents to openly collude on contract offers over the next few years that are going to be impacted by lesser caps than where they otherwise would, I'm sure every agent out there is going to call the Jaguars up and ask them to provide a contract offer for their client just so that amount can get leaked out there - even if there's absolutely no chance that player signs with them. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30963821/nflpa-demaurice-smith-tells-agents-collude-offers-ensure-teams-not-limiting-salaries-source-says And to a different post in this thread, a diminished but still healthy JJ Watt is still a pro bowler at the DE position in a 3-4. He would be a HUGE upgrade to the Packers' front 7 compared to what they have in Lowry. He won't win a 4th DPOY award, but he's still a very good player - that's not 2015 name recognition, it's the 2020 game tape that says so. I was surprised he'd played 91 pct of his snaps last year and over 90 in 2018. And while Lowry is very possibly gone if we were to make this move, in a perfect world, he'd replace Lancaster and Lowry would get one more year to be the 4th option on the DL while they draft and develop a younger guy. I don't see any reason why the Packers shouldn't look at this as a 2-3 year investment. You look at what a cuy like Cameron Heyward is doing, he'll be going into his age 33 season next year and he hasn't slowed down much. I don't see any reason to expect Watt to. The more we talk about this, the more similar to Charles Woodson is sounds to me. The difference in Woodson had fallen off much worse than Watt had and at a position that relies on athletic ability more. Also, Woodson won DPOY when he was 33, Reggie when he was 38. Plug Watt into the lineup and I certainly wouldn't bet on it, but I think he might actually be able to put up DPOY type numbers. At the very least, I'd expect Keke, Gary, Clark and the Smiths(or just the one Smith) to see their production go up quite a bit. It's such a significant domino effect when you can add a guy who demands double teams. It just changes the entire defense at every level.

It's a lot of eggs to put in the basket of a 32-year-old whose had some pretty serious injuries the past few seasons. It's a move that would be so far out of the norm that Gute has established over the last few offseasons, which is why I have a lot of trouble seeing it happen. The risks the Packers take are always very calculated, and often conservative, and signing Watt to a $15 million per year deal wouldn't be either of those. It just sucks that the Packers front office is going to take in invariable amount of crap when Watt ends up signing somewhere else, when it was always an extreme long shot at best due to the financial aspect and the team's front office MO. I just don't see how Gutey has a long enough history to have much of an idea one way or the other. He went on the biggest FA binge in franchise history and then he drafted a QB in the first round. I don't know what type of moves he'll make, BUT, the injury part may be a little overblown with him. He played over 90 pct of their snaps two of the last three years and the year in between I believe he had a torn bicep or pec muscle. A flukey injury. So hopefully he's past the back injuries. As always, the 15 million AAV is kinda meaningless until we hear what the guarantee is and how long it is. Like I said, if he's looking for even a Za'Darius Smith type contract, that would be fine. If he's looking for 4 years 60 million with 30+ guaranteed, that's probably too much. Either way, with the way everyone's talked about the Packers being in Cap hell, I don't think the FO will take the heat if they don't sign him...but I could be wrong. I won't blame them unless he ends up signing an affordable deal elsewhere. So rarely does a FA line up as well as Watt does with the Packers, so it's easy to see why everyone is so invested in him signing.

Or just sign Jurrell Casey or re-up on a cheap deal with Damon Harrison, then you can probably get two other good veteran players for the same money Watt is going to cost by himself. Personally, I'm indifferent to Watt as a Packer. Yeah, it would be a fun "local kid comes home" story, but people are making it bigger than it probably is. He would be a step up from Lowry, but not a "4X the salary" one. I think a lot of fans think that Watt is the 2015 version, and that is no longer the case. Not even close. He was still a top 10 player at his position as he has been every season. PFF graded him as an 85.5 and 7th best edge player in 2020. It's true that he's not the 2014 and 2015 player who was in a different stratosphere than every other defensive player but he is still a jillion times better than Dean Lowry. This is true, some people are really underrating him now because he's no longer playing at the other-worldly level he once was. That Texans defense last year was really weak around him also. Mercilus was the only other guy you'd call any type of threat. Looking at the roster around him and how good he was, I can actually talk myself into him being worth 15 million next year, it just seems like at that point, you're putting ALL your eggs in one basket and hoping he can stay healthy and play at a near All-Pro level again. Either way, I just hope Gutey is aggressive this off-season in trying to upgrade this team. Even if they can't make Reggie work, Gillmore is available, there are half a dozen CB's who will be available and won't break the bank. We're so close...a player or two could make the difference in getting Rodgers a 2nd ring.

Or just sign Jurrell Casey or re-up on a cheap deal with Damon Harrison, then you can probably get two other good veteran players for the same money Watt is going to cost by himself. Personally, I'm indifferent to Watt as a Packer. Yeah, it would be a fun "local kid comes home" story, but people are making it bigger than it probably is. He would be a step up from Lowry, but not a "4X the salary" one. I think a lot of fans think that Watt is the 2015 version, and that is no longer the case. Not even close. No, he's not worth 4X what Lowry's getting, but he's a big threat as a pass rusher whereas Harrison and Casey aren't. Shelby Harris...who incidentally also has Wisconsin ties(from Milwaukee) would be a great fit as well. I'm a huge fan of signing him because, again, I think it's just the perfect fit for this defense...and I think he could get double-digit sacks with the players around him, but I think we all agree, not for 15 million. I'll just hope that's a smokescreen and he'll be a Packers until I hear he signs elsewhere though, and dream of having a front that can generate the type of pressure SF could or the Buccs did last year. But if we don't sign him, it's not the end of the world.

I'm guessing this was leaked by his agent and no such offer exists. I have no proof of this. All I know is that I've grown weary of J.J. Watt drama. I suppose it gives the talking heads something to talk about without the combine going on, though. In fairness to him, it's only been about a week. We're just eager to see a HOF'er from Wisconsin who's still playing at an elite level sign with the Packers. I originally thought the longer he went without signing, the better it'd be for the Packers chances...and then when the Browns and Steelers dropped out, I thought it was just about a given. I still hope it is, but I hope they're not dumb enough to give him 15 million per year. He was great last year and he is pretty much a perfect fit in Green Bay, but there are a lot of moves they can make at that price. Hell, sign Leonard Williams if you're going to spend that much on a DE. Williams doesn't have the Wisconsin connections, but he's a younger player and he's also a near perfect fit who can play the run and get after the QB.

I'm not surprised Pittsburgh is out, but I am pretty surprised that the Browns are out. But man, 15-16 million per? That's absolutely insane. Not saying he wasn't worth that last season, but the number of players who are likely going to be available, I think that money could end up signing 3 really good veterans. It'd have to be something like 4/60 with 16 guaranteed and a cap hit no higher than 6-7 next year and then something they could get out of after that. But if it's a firmer 15/16 million per year. A 2-3 year deal, then I'd say "good luck JJ, have fun playing for the Jaguars," or whoever that team is that can afford him. It's tough for me to see what contender that's NOT Cleveland that would be a good fit. I guess Indy would be a good fit and they've got Buckner up front. That'd be a dominant DL. SD has cap room with Herbert cheap. Watt could give them the type of defense with Derwin James coming back, Bosa, Ingram...that could be dominant like SF was in 2019. Then I guess the Cardinals could be a decent fit and I'd throw the Broncos in there, but Lock is too be of a question mark.

I agree. Talk to a cap specialist like Andrew Brandt and do a story like that. I would think on the aggressive side you could save 20-25 million from the cap next year without getting TOO crazy. Adams from ~17 to 7 and Rodgers from 37 to 20 seems reasonable...but I'd like to hear someone who knows the cap better than searching spotrac and guessing. And the more I think about Linsley...it should have been obvious at the start of the season he wasn't coming back. Almost 30, multiple picks used on Centers, they didn't give him a 2-3 year extension when he was playing great during 2019 or even after 2018. We all recognized that Gutey is going to operate differently than Thompson, but giving 3rd contracts to offensive linemen SHOULD be rare and reserved for situations like Bahktiari. All Pro's who aren't 30 yet. I thought that should even extend to someone like Bulaga last year given where Rodgers is in his career, but that proved to be a very smart move(not bringing him back). Honestly, most of these guys don't seem like they offer any insight into the team. They are just fans with a bigger platform usually.

They signed Za'Darius Smith to a deal almost immediately as Free Agency started. Like 12 PM and they signed Amos and Preston Smith the 1st day. Amos was probably the biggest name to Packers fans...having been a Bear, but Za'Darius Smith was big name, as was Preston Smith. Two young guys who had both had success, but were still just 26? But more important than how well known they were, is the contract. Giving 4/66 three years ago to Za'Darius and 4/56 to Preston, as well as the 4/40 to a safety, those were all big time, marquee signings by the Packers. Gutekunst has already said they're going to need to push cap hits off to the future. Use the "credit card," I believe was the term. Adams is still just 28 years old, so I just can't envision a scenario in which they go into this season with him eating up 17 million in cap space. Gutekunst has shown he's willing to be more aggressive. He's too good, too important and the Packers are too close. They can afford to spend the cash on the up front signing bonus, so I don't think that'll be a problem. I don't know if they'll sign Watt or if they'll let him walk, but it does seem like they're going to try very hard to clear room and create cap space. If Watt is REALLY getting 15-16 million dollar offers, good luck. He's not worth that in this particular off-season. Maybe in a normal one, but not this year.

Yeah, that's be pretty crazy. There are only a handful of teams that have 3 HOF QB's in their history...the Packers being one with Starr, Favre and Rodgers(and Cecil Isabel should be in that group, but that's just my opinion). But as it stands, we'll likely go 30 years with HOF play from the most important position. As much as I love Rodgers, I think MLF could do some amazing things with an athlete the caliber of Watson, and he's got great touch on deep throws. More RPO's with him as a threat. It's fun to think about. I think we'd trade Rodgers for 2-3 1sts and then package them for Watson. Take a year to re-set, then re-load and make a run. If I'm Houston, I'm doing just about everything I can to make Watson happy. Of course, that would have started by hiring Robert Saleh...who brought Mike LaFleur with him. That's probably why the Jets are reportedly very high on his list. The Packers offensive scheme, the 49'ers defensive scheme, a LT the size of Shaq already in place and a ton of cap room. Put Watson on the Jets and I could see them jumping up to ~6-7 wins next year.