HiAndTight

There comes a point where fans really can get to obsessed over arbitration numbers. We're talking about a rule 5 draftee who's never pitched above rookie ball. Putting him in the minors is a good reason to trade FOR him if he doesn't make the team, but this is depending on the Pirates being willing to make the trade and I would suspect they probably wouldn't want to.

Yount may have left bigger deals out there, I don't know for sure either way, but I believe he became the highest paid player in the game at one point after the 1989 MVP. He negotiated for a while and didn't really take a big discount. In fact, both Molitor and Yount signed at the same time IIRC and both were among the top 10 paid players in the game. This was back when the Brewers payroll was among the biggest in the game and before the salaries really took off(Starting with Ryno getting 7.2 million per..again, just going off memory here).

Yount. You could find Yount doing the very same things. My Dad lived in the next apartment to him in Hales Corners(or maybe it was West Allis) when he was 21 or so and Yount was this up and coming star for the Brewers. My Dad and I have always had a little..Molitor vs Yount argument. I liked Molitor better, but he loved Yount because he was, according to him, just such a nice, unassuming guy. My Dad's friends didn't know who he was(weren't baseball fans), invited him in for a beer and he came in, had a couple and never mentioned he was on the Brewers. My dad didn't bring it up because he didn't want to make it weird I guess. Not really sure. But he said he was just the most laid back guy around. Really just a cool, chill guy who didn't think he was some big shot. Imagine Ryan Braun living in an apartment building and having a beer with 3-4 guys he lived next to when he was in his first couple years? So I think Yount was every big as relate-able and personable as Cooper was.

Well...you kinda are saying I told you so, but I'm not sure what it was you "told us." And I don't have expectations for young pitchers like Olmsted. I have hope for them. I am encouraged by their ceilings and their potential. That's pretty much it.

Right. Why would the Brewers take a player they at least know SOMETHING about like Wang who's performed very well and has a great arm and try and leverage a player they know very little about from the Pirates? Just keep Wang and hope you hit gold. There will be a rough patch. I just hope the Brewers don't give up on him too quickly. Between Wang and Smith, the Brewers MIGHT have added two potential very good starters down the road. Two left handed power arms...something we've been lacking for some time.

I like this idea a lot. I would extend that to the starters as well. Especially with Garza who's struggled with injuries the last couple of years. Obviously it would depend on the situation, but if he's healthy and pitching well, but he's starting to deal with normal fatigue that he'd normally pitch through, I would be in favor of sending him to the 15 day and bringing up Thornburg. Could serve two purposes. You could give your starters some rest, in particular Lohse who's obviously older and Gallardo who clearly didn't have as much life in his arm last year after the WBC and only seemed to get it back after the ASB and a 8 day layoff. Assuming everything is going well, rotate them through. Not "scheduled," per say, but planned trips. As long as Thornburg is pitching well, it's a little bit out of the box type of idea that COULD give the rotation a little bit more life at the end of the year. Estrada has never pitched a full season, I already mentioned the rationale for Yo, Lohse and Garza and Peralta is still a young arm that I'd like to baby just a little bit before totally unleashing him(not that he isn't ready as he's pitched 150-172-183 innings the past 3 years).

Well, unless Braun is playing the Brett Favre game(you know, how every team was the most talented he'd been on the last 4-5 years of his career) and blowing some REAL thick smoke, players that good tend to force a teams hand. Khris Davis and his noodle arm could always move to 1st as could Braun should he deal with any more injuries.

Ok, so then what's the justification for Braun having a problem with moving to 1st base if we're going off comments made through the media? Plus, Kemp's comments were hardly scathing. He was "disappointed," and "didn't like being lied to." Meh...they were friends, I'm sure they could patch it up again. I believe he's said he'd do whatever was the best for the team and even joked, "other than playing 3rd because that didn't go so well the 1st time." And if Kent and Bonds can play, I'm sure two people who are as mild mannered(or appear to be, especially Kemp) would do just fine playing together. What could really happen? It's an individual sport. If players don't like each other or resent each other, how often does that even come into play? Is Braun going to give up an AB because Kemp said something? Other than 2nd-SS and P-C, chemistry is insanely overrated. Though again, unless some actual dysfunction in their own clubhouse leads to Kemp having to be traded and them eating.....a lot, it's all a moot point anyway.

I would argue that you could put the 4 in a hat and pick them in any order and not be questioned. I don't think Estrada's earned it yet. Needs a healthy season in which he pitches 180 innings like he has the past two years. That takes him from nice 4/5 to solid 2/3. Personally I'd go Lohse Gallardo(I do think he'll bounce back this year and be a far more effective pitcher with the decreased velocity). Garza-Bad feeling on him even though ST'ing is obviously meaningless. Peralta Estrada Lohse...he's not pretty, but damn, look at the last several years. Can't argue with the results.

It also may be a sign of the extra revenues that the team is bringing in. That they can afford to both spend 90-100 million on the big league roster and still have money left to invest on international signings like this. I'd love to know the overall team revenue numbers. Attanasio certainly isn't cheap, but i do think he's done well from buying the team. I'd say if he wasn't making a penny, he'd have to be thrilled with his investment in the Brewers right now. I could look, but off the top of my head, I'd guess he'd probably be able to make 220 million dollars on the Brewers if he sold them(or the ownership group would). And I do believe he's making money on the team year to year...good on him though. He certainly could make more money if he didn't sign Garza this past off-season trying to compete, or Lohse the year before. Clearly the money is equal to winning for him. Really lucky to have him...even if I think he pushes Melvin into some poor decisions at times.

This is one of the reasons why I would absolutely be out there engaging other clubs on trades if that deal could net you a potential long term solution at 3B. If Stephen Drew re-signs in Boston, is Will Middlebrooks available? Nick Franklin and Brad Miller are apparently available in Seattle...can either of them play 3B? Is Nick Delmonico a legitimate long term solution at 3B after Aramis leaves? To me, even if the deal had to include Aramis, I would be willing to get younger at the position as I feel he is close to breaking down for good. While not necessarily punting on 2014, an Aramis deal that would net us a potential long term solution at 3B is the kind of forward thinking I would like the Brewers FO to consider. I'm not disagreeing with you, but if the Brewers were engaged in that type of forward thinking, do you think they'd have signed Lohse and Garza the last two years? They're hoping to get 2012 Aramis Ramirez, and none of the options you've suggested have a very good chance to put up that type of season. I think 2012 was Aram's career year and he's likely to be a decent, 2.5 WAR type player this year, but the Brewers are obviously counting on him being more.

Perhaps because my perception of what market value for a 28 year old may be and what your may be could differ greatly. And obviously the level of confidence we have in Segura differs.

While I don't agree with everything Stache wrote here, I have to say that I am leaning towards doing an extension with Segura immediately for the exact reason highlighted. If we are to assume that Segura isn't the first half or the second half, but rather is the sum of his 2013 season, he would be worth a Simmons-extension immediately. I believe that he is the .290/.330/.420 player he slashed last season, with 10-15 HR, 40+ SB potential annually. If he is that player and playing the position he plays, that extension should be doable for the Brewers now. However, adding in the D, which I also believe is where Segura's true value will come this season and next, and the Brewers may end up having to either pay the Elvis Andrus contract (8 years $118 million) or trading Segura near the end of arbitration. Interesting to note that Baseball Reference has Andrelton Simmons as Jean Segura's #1 Similar Batter and that Segura's and Andrus' 162 Game Average while not identical, are quite similar: Segura: .287/.326/.403 10 HR 53 RBI 43 SB Andrus: .274/.339/.348 4 HR 56 RBI 35 SB I agree with you. And a larger point, I've always felt if you do this consistently, if you sign players who you're confident are going to be consistent performers, you can miss on one and still come out ahead. Yeah, we missed on Hall. But Braun's production made up for that. I think Gallardo's deal is another example. If you have several really good young players, I've just always thought it was worth taking the risk early and buying out a couple years of Free Agency when you can is a lot more effective than going into the Free Agent market. So 7 years and 60 million for Segura right now, buying out 2 FA years is worth that risk. Or two option years at least.

Yeah, I guess if he hits .325 his WAR will obviously be driven up. I'm not trying to tell you it won't be. But this .325 is a made up number. His OBP last year was 30 points lower than that last year, so I don't think I'd say it's "likely." And in contract discussions, I think Segura's offense and stolen bases last year are going to make a pretty strong negotiating point as well. I don't see how your hypothetical is any different than using Segura's offense and then projecting that he has seasons in which his defense is GG caliber. You're taking big leaps in both to make your arguments. It's also worth noting that Simmons had 9 HR's in ~250 games prior to last year...so if Segura's first half is a question mark, wouldn't his power be?

Well it pretty much is like that. Right now it is only a verbal promise, since you can't officially sign until July. The fact that the deep pocket teams know the team and the amount to beat for Lara only makes it easier for them to negotiate him away. And if you are a teen with no money, there is no way you don't take the biggest contract offer, even if he had a verbal deal with Milwaukee - and I wouldn't blame him. Yeah, I get that the team knows the figure amount and which team they're competing against, however I don't recall one of these players reneging on an agreement. You see half the ESPN 300 flip(an exaggeration obviously). You don't see a lot of these Latin American players agree to a contract prior to official deadline to sign and then back out and sign with another team? So...no, I wouldn't really say it's like that. It seems like when a player and team reach an agreement prior to the official date to sign, they end up signing. I'm not saying it's unheard of, but I think this fear that the Yankees are going to come in and pay 12 million for a 16 year old kid is extremely overblown.

I haven't heard a whole lot from Melvin but from the few snippets I've heard, it sounds like they really like Wang. And if anyone can go from Rookie ball to the big leagues, it would seem to be a player who has experience in another professional league, and who has a plus change up to go with a good fastball. Still obviously a long shot.

Clearly I think it would be or I wouldn't have argued it would make our team better. I don't understand why you think it's so obvious it'd be a bad idea in theory(taking out the obstacles that it would take to get him here). Do you really think that from what we know about Kemp, he'd be petty and clash with Braun? And based on Braun's statements, do you believe he would have a problem moving to 1st base?

Sure...that's obviously possible. Of course it would be a year and a half of being incredibly hot. His career line prior to last year is 295/.352/.501/.853 in roughly 900 games. .303/.351/.483/.835 in 412 games from ages 22-24. So it's not like he just came out of nowhere prior to the "superstar," years. He was a budding star, played in 162 games where he wasn't very good, then had a year and a two year run in which he played at a Superstar level(missing about 45 games) and was hurt last year. So if anything, I would say that if you want to go back to his expected norm, it'd be closer to ~.290/.350/.485, and he certainly maintained an high level of play longer than Hall and McGehee did combined. And remember, his numbers were put up in Dodger stadium, not in Miller Park. I think it's just more likely he comes back this year and puts up MVP type numbers again than he becomes a player who just had a couple of "hot streak," type seasons. It's all kinda academic at this point because it's unlikely the two sides are even talking, would even talk, much less agree on a deal that would make it feasible.

No, he's not. Gallardo is 27 and has about 1100 innings as a starting pitcher while Estrada is 30 and has about 300. He's a nice 5th guy or swing man. He is not Yovani Gallardo. Until Estrada makes 30 starts and logs 180+ innings in one year, there's no comparison. Not saying he can't be as effective or perhaps even more than Yo, but that's what will earn him the big bucks. I'm not saying he can or can't be as or more effective as Gallardo either. I'm simply stating he hasn't, and everyone continues to ask, "why does Estrada continue to get overlooked, he's been as good as Gallardo or better," when it's just not true. You can't say a guy who has put up similar rate stats over a quarter of the time has been just as good. Had he 5 straight 30 start seasons, and Estrada's best seasons have come at a time when he's older than Gallardo is right now. Not to mention, we also had to add these caveat's with Estrada taking out his worst performances. I know it's not the end all, but Estrada has a career ERA+ of 97 while Gallardo has an ERA+ of 109. I think Estrada's ascension is greatly exaggerated as is Gallardo's decline. I certainly hope Estrada has the type of success he's had the last two years over a full 30+ start season. It'd be fantastic to get that from what would seem to be our #5 starter right now.

No, he's not. Gallardo is 27 and has about 1100 innings as a starting pitcher while Estrada is 30 and has about 300. He's a nice 5th guy or swing man. He is not Yovani Gallardo. I'll take that much lower WHIP and much lower walk rate any day over the week. That's fine. But over the course of his career, you wouldn't be given the oppurtunity to MAKE that choice any day of the week because Estrada hasn't been available. I'll take a guy who can consistently throw around 200 innings a year for 5 years by the time he's 27 rather than a guy who's thrown over 100 innings in the major leagues just twice(never more than 138) and is three years older. Gallardo 27- 179 games started Estrada 30- 53 games started I don't think anyone would compare Axford to Gallardo, yet Axford is actually MUCH closer to Estrada than Gallardo is. Axford 30 years old 273.2 IP 3.29 ERA 10.8 K/9 2.67 K/BB 1.326 WHIP Estrada 30 years old 390 IP 4.17 ERA 8.8 K/9 3.74 K/BB 1.178 WHIP

Simmons hit 17HRs last year. Nevermind being worth 4WAR or more than Segura defensively alone before adding to the WAR at the plate. That's a lot of ground for Segura to catch up to with the bat when he isn't seen as much more than a 10HR hitter. Since when do HR's drive WAR? Simmons also had a OBP below .300 and a SLG below .400. Simmons had a 4.7 WAR last year, Segura had a 3.4 So I don't get why you're trying to break down WAR in this way. Simmons is safer as he's an exceptional defender. I don't think he's going to rate as good as he did last year moving forward, but that's my opinion. We've got one big league year to go off of so far. Same with Segura.

To buy out the FA years...if you project his cost in free agency if hes a very good player, it's going to be a lot more than a 2 year 28 million dollar deal.

Kemp played in 399 straight games and then in May 2012 he went down with a "Hamstring injury" at that time he was batting: .359/.446/.726/ 1.173 12HRs in 34 games 140PAs 118ABs Since then he's accumulated 599 PAs .276/.328/.436/.764 17HRs and just 16SBs. I just don't like behind the numbers his 2011 season and start to 2012 to me stands out as not the norm. Now he has multiple injuries behind him ankle/hamstring/shoulder joint issue.... How is it a good idea to take a guy on being paid to be 2011 who was healthy then who's cressed his prime and should eventually begin his decline? He's not a defensive stalwart. Why can't we go with our own Khris Davis and cheer him on for 525k this year? I'll wager $50 now with anyone Davis hits more HRs than Kemp this year. Yeah, when you're injured, you're not as likely to put up big numbers. I realize we're going on the assumption that everyone's on roids these days, I just don't believe aside from that, you made a very compelling case. Played with Manny, and has gotten injured. Steroids usually take a long time...years of abuse before you start dealing with the soft tissue damage and joint injuries. He's missed most of his time from a shoulder and ankle IIRC. Not that rare in baseball. And I'm not going to wager 50 bucks on who hits more HR's because...It's really not that important to me. Kemp's almost certainly going to be playing in a much bigger stadium and not going to be playing everyday. Not to mention, that's really an awful way to judge which is a better player. Davis can't play anywhere else on the field but in LF because he's so limited defensively. Kemp may not be a "stalwart," but I believe he'd be pretty solid if healthy in RF, and Braun would be a big upgrade at 1st base. At the end of the day, the Brewers aren't going to add 126 million dollars over the next SIX YEARS, and even if the Dodgers were desperate to dump him, we don't have enough bad contracts to give them to make it worth it. And I'd also be worried about his long term production....but it'd certainly make 2014 more interesting.

I don't think Mat Gamel's knees have anything to do with Corey Hart's. Responses to knee injuries are extremely varied. Plus, weren't the Braves planning on having Gamel attempt to play both corner OF positions as well as both corner IF positions? A little different than just 1st base.

I'm gonna wait until Davis has actually played through those ages before I make that declaration. And you really don't have to do much to be worth 11 million dollars over 5 years.