HiAndTight

I wouldn't assume the money wouldn't matter with the Dodgers. There comes a point when it matters for every team in every sport. The Yankees a team that makes more money than the Dodgers are cutting salary. The Lakers are wary of the luxury tax and trying to get below it, the Knicks payroll was out of control a few years ago. Just because they spent a lot to get to where they are now doesn't mean they'll view Weeks and the remaining 20 million they'd have to pay him next year, and the potential 23 million or whatever they'd have to pay him if he reached the option with the luxury tax. They bought the team last year, they spent a ton of money. I don't think it's wise to assume that they'll just continue to spend money. Not to mention everyone is in awe of their TV deal(which is huge) but 3.4 billion of that goes into MLB's revenue sharing and gets divided up(at least that's the last number I saw...MLB was negotiating with the Dodgers based on how much they had to pay to buy the team vs it's valuation, it's debts..etc..etc..I think they settled on 3.4, but I don't know. It's a unique situation). In fact, I have a feeling the Dodgers and their owners who paid way more than the franchised was worth according to most evaluations are going to get sick of paying 30-40 million in luxury taxes.

Have you ever watched him pitch? I watched him pitch against the T-Rats and I would trade Lohse straight up for Michael Ynoa or Raul Alcantara and not blink twice. Yes I realize Ynoa's ERA sucks since his promotion to A+, he's obviously not locating well enough yet for the league, but he's only 4 starts in. I would prefer Alcantara given Ynoa's injury history, but in terms of pure stuff Ynoa is right there with the better A ball prospects. For Beloit this year: Ynoa [pre]Year Age Tm Lg Aff ERA G GS IP H R HR SO HBP WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB 2013 21 Beloit MIDW OAK 2.14 15 15 54.2 45 19 3 48 7 1.152 7.4 0.5 3.0 7.9 2.67[/pre] Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Alcantara [pre]Year Age Tm Lg ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB 2013 20 Beloit MIDW 2.44 13 13 77.1 84 29 21 3 7 58 1.177 9.8 0.3 0.8 6.8 8.29[/pre] Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table I'm curious and don't follow everyone's background all that closely. Do you scout? You reference watching a lot of these guys play and then come down pretty hard on entire organization(right or wrong). Just curious if you're a fan or if you've spent time behind the dish with a radar gun taking notes. Not that I wouldn't value your opinions in either event. I don't always agree, but generally we're of the same mind. For the record, I have no idea what's being offered for Lohse. If you can get Ynoa and that's the guy with the highest ceiling out there I'd trade him. I'd trade him because what else are we going to use him for other than waste his last couple good years on a 65 win team. And who knows, maybe he lives up to his potential.

C'mon....Boston and NY will ALWAYS have prospects that are drastically overrated. It goes along with their status in baseball. Jimmy Nelson is extremely similar to Peralta IMO except I think he may strike out more batters. He has ace stuff. I think he's a bit underrated. That said, I'm not opposed to anything you're suggesting. Obviously since this thought popped into my head about 30 seconds after we signed a pitcher when we had a 85 win team if everything went perfect, I was hoping to get something back as we really do have a ugly, ugly farm system at the upper levels(their is a lot of talent in the lower levels though). And Lohse is really just an impressive-impressive pitcher. I really think Gallardo can learn from him and enter his "second act," if he pitches more and throws less as he continues to lose his stuff. There should be a lot of teams interested in him even with his contract.

I feel bad for thinking this, but when I read your question, the sarcastic response that immediately flashed through my head was, 'I dunno -- which one is the big-framed college pitcher who projects to be a #3 or #4 type in a best-case scenario?' I think the Brewers have given up on that philosophy. In 2012 and 2013 they drafted guys with high ceilings and considerable risks, and maybe they'll go the same route in 2014. I'd like to know when they EVER did that? I mean, of course it's popular on here to have a pretty steady flow of negativity towards all things Brewers right now, Jed Bradley was at one point a potential top 5 pick. He and Jungman were rated as the 8th and 9th best prospects in the draft. Everyone was thrilled when Arnett slipped to us and I'd say Jimmy Nelson is inspiring a helluva lot of confidence right now since his stuff is very similar to that of Peralta's. Of course during all those years they used early round picks on players that people were giddy about on here like Jorge Lopez....which is fine, young HS arms who have that much room to improve are exciting. But this theory that they were targeting low ceiling guys is revisionist history.

I certainly don't "need," to temper any expectations. I was in favor of bringing K-Rod back(knowing he'd be cheap) just in the hopes that he could end up getting us a prospect just like this. In fact when we signed him I brought up trades we'd made in the past...guys like Bob Wickman. But K-Rod was even a longer shot. Nobody was willing to meet his demands, he signs a minor league deal, and we end up getting a guy that Baltimore gave 1st round money to. Now I haven't seen him play. I knew little about him before we made the trade. But you seem to just throw things out there that completely and utterly contradict everything else that is said. He makes Ryan Braun look like a gold glover at 3rd? Not to mention Gamel. See where does this come from? Scouting reports talk about his athletic ability and the fact that he moved THIS YEAR. You're using strictly errors? Seriously? He's an "under .250 hitter?" So the kid goes straight from HS to LowA and then HiA and more than holds his own and is in the top 10 in the league in several categories and you're going to ding him for that? George Kottaras? Our 15th best prospect? It's almost as if you're just searching for reasons to NOT like a trade for a guy who had absolutely no value to us. The kid according to guys like Sickels has a legit chance to stick at 3rd base, they don't want to move him to 1st base because they don't want to waste his athletic ability and his strong arm. He already had great plate discipline.... What exactly are you expecting here? Did you really think Jurickson Profar was going to be handed to us for a reliever we signed to a minor league contract.

Yeah, Boras has the luxury of doing that with players like Harvey whereas Matt Harvey has six years to compile a whole lot of innings and a lot of pitches that could put him on Dr. Andrews table. In any event, the Brewers have at least attempted to do what I hoped they would...they've approached him and tried to sign him. I believe it's the only way a team like the Brewers can be competitive long term. By signing young players with a very high probability of sustaining their success to deals with cost certainty. And for all the heat Melvin's taken, I think he's done a fantastic job with that. Braun's deal may be looked at in a different light right now, but you can only go off the information you have at the time, and at the time that was a fantastic deal. The extra 5 years I don't even think was a mistake because at the time he looked like he was going to be a historic type player...a player who's value to the franchise goes beyond what he does on the field. That has changed. Bill Hall was coming off a big year and that deal didn't work out. Gallardo's for the most part has been a success. Lucroy's looks absurdly team friendly at this point. Gomez obviously has exceeded everyone's expectations except for his own. I wonder if after the Brewers make some more moves and shed some more salary if they could come back to Segura with a new offer and offer up a nice big signing bonus. Say 10 million up front, and then 30 million over the next 6 years and two team options at 14 and 16 respectively. I'd be interested in hearing what the initial offer was and what Segura is looking for.

I think Norris is available because he's having a good year and the 'Stros are a long way away from contention. I sincerely doubt Houston is shopping him because of his salary. And next year will be his second year of arbitration. He's making 3 million this year and even at 5-6 million next year, and under team control for another year, that's still a very desirable deal for another team, even as a #4 starter on a good team. I'm not sure that I wouldn't rather take Norris over Gallardo over the next two years, contracts aside, so when everyone talks about how Gallardo's got a team friendly deal when he's mentioned in trade rumors and isn't a rental, Norris looks even better. As for relievers, look at John Axford this season. Fans seem to have a long memory when it comes to failures and a short one when it comes to success. Axford has a 1.60 ERA after the 1st 4 games of the season, yet his ERA is still 3.40. And like everyone knows, relievers, save for the elite relievers are up and down every year.

Are you an orthopedist? I'm not either, but surgery is supposed to correct a problem not render him a cripple at age 31. I think it's way premature until we see him to speculate where he can play. Knees can and often are rehabbed. No, I just think he's taking the information he has and coming to a logical conclusion. Hart was never a very good RF'er, and he'd be coming off 3 knee injuries, two of which on each knees that knocked him out for the season. Repeatedly suffering knee injuries and then asking a guy who's lost a great deal of speed and athletic ability to move BACK out to a more physically demanding position after those injuries just SEEMS illogical. The "are you an orthopedist," as clever as it may be, could just as easily apply to everyone on here who goes to a baseball game and then comes back from one experience and gives a "scouting report," or takes prospect rankings and says, "if we trade so and so we have to get this prospect back." Are you a GM? Are you a scout? And I don't believe that anyone said he was a cripple, but repeated surgeries on the same joint often times suggest a larger underlying issue. And that is something I DO have personal knowledge of. I was a former athlete, had several surgeries on my knees, shoulder and hip before I was 30 and they were to relieve pain, not repair myself so that I could go back and do the same things I could do previously(which in Hart's case is something he wasn't even that good at previously, ie, playing RF). I would say that moving him back to RF at this point is LIKELY not in the Brewers play(at LEAST on a full time basis). But hey...I'm not Doug Melvin....just using my powers of deductive reasoning.

I don't like this logic that we have to pay Segura 1 or 2 million dollars next year if we're signing him to a long term deal as it lessens his desire to sign the extension and give away FA years. I'd rather we just save the money from Hart, give him a 10 million dollar signing bonus up front to entice him into the deal. However as that's not how it works, I believe that Corey Hart is a good bet to take back next year, and if we were to sign him(and I believe he's made it clear he wants to be here) I'd have to insist the Brewers at least have the option of 2 years of team control in the event that he picks up where he left off. 2 years 5 million guaranteed in year 1 with 2-3 million in incentives with a 8 million dollar option or a 1 million dollar buyout. And I'd be extraordinarily surprised to see the Yankees sign him to play 1st and DH when they have players(like Jeter) who may fill in that DH spot, and they've made no secret about the fact that they want to get down to believe 189 million dollars or at least as close as possible next year so they don't have to pay the luxury tax. I think Hart has earned a shot at a show me type contract, and I think the Brewers have earned the right to demand an option for a second year if he does in fact, "show them," after everything. And like with all of these types of moves, the low risk/high reward type moves, in the back of your mind you have to have the thought that if he does come back strong next year he's a trade asset while Morris gets a little more time in AAA. He's not exactly having a banner season down there. He's now hitting .236 with a .311 OBP. I think Mat Gamel would be able to perform better if his knee is healed(and it'd be a REAL flukey injury if he injured it again...in the same place a third straight year next year. I'd expect Morris to get that cup of coffee, but I don't think he'll be ready for the everyday job next year based on how he's performed in AAA. If we want a guy who strikes out a lot, hits for big power, you've already got Francisco on your roster. Over 162 game schedule based on what he's done for the Brewers he'd hit 32 HR's with very similar slash lines and Francisco is just one year older.

I think we're WAY too quick to do this. Look at a scouting ranking(though it's fun for the less informed and I say that as compared to people actually scouting these players professionally) is one thing, but perhaps the White Sox aren't sold on Martinez. His prospect ranking meter is pointing downward(though still VERY good and I'd LOVE to have him by the way) as he was a top 5 prospect IIRC last year when BA did their mid-season update and now he came into this season ranked 38th by BA after being ranked 27th to start last season? Maybe something is going on they don't like. I agree with you, given the numbers you laid out and the facts we have, in a fantasy world, I'd be thrilled if my team made that trade...today. Maybe not 2 years from now. It's also possible that the writer didn't get the whole story as he started that the trade "revolved around," Martinez. Maybe the Cards wanted Peavy+Ramirez plus something. I sure would love to be in the Cards position right now having a good, relatively young big league team and 3 prospects probably ranked ahead of Carlos Martinez right now.

I've said all along that Ramirez' price tag is such that other than some salary relief, dealing him won't bring back anything of value. Everybody pointed to the Dodgers as a logical landing point, but they're as bad as the Brewers at this point, only in a worse division. I'm with you, I don't see a 3B on the horizon to replace A-Ram either. Francisco has failed in a couple places already. At best, he'd be a below average stop gap. I'd listen to offers for Gallardo or Lohse, but I wouldn't pull the trigger unless the return is impossible to refuse. What's wrong with trying to get everyone healthy and making a push one more year with this group save maybe Weeks and one or two bullpen faces? Even Hart might be amenable to a short term deal. There is talent here, some of it will be here for multiple seasons and there are enough arms in the high minors that one or two could break through by 2014. I could come up with a whole list of reasons, but I'll just list a couple. Starting with the old adage that it's always better to trade a guy a year too early rather than a year too late; 1-Gallardo's struggles could continue and a half of a year of him pitching below his standards could turn into a full year and a half. 2-Lohse is pitching well right now, in demand and owed money that could be spent better elsewhere. 3-It'd take an absurdly flukish string of events for this team to bounce back by next year. -Hart would have to come back healthy and be at least a .270/.320/.480 player or Gamel would have to do likewise. -Braun would have to come back with everything that's happened and return to his MVP level status. -Gomez would have to prove that he's actually one of the best players in the game(using WAR) next year as well. -Segura would have to avoid a sophomore year slump. -Our BP would have to duplicate it's performance this year and without any consistent and dominant relievers out there, that's not likely. -Peralta would have to take the reigns and pitch like he has the last 3 starts. -Weeks would have to bounce back.... And there are several other things that would have to go right in order for the Brewers to put themselves in a position to compete with the Braves/Nationals/Cardinals/Reds/Pirates/Dodgers/D-backs and possibly the Rockies and/or Giants, all teams with considerably brighter futures than the Brewers. That's not even mentioning the Phillies who I wouldn't write off just yet. They added one WC spot and it's a one game play in. So the only way I see them jumping up into the front of this group is if the trades they(hopefully) make work out like last years trades did and Nelson and others make the jump and perform exceptionally well. I hate cliches, but I'll toss out a second one in here. The best pick in the draft is the last one, the second best pick in the draft is the 1st one. Clinging to this delusion that they've got a chance to compete next year puts them IMO right where the Bucks are, a team that's going to have to spend and work to be a middle of the pack team and those teams can often times get stuck there for quite a while. So honestly, what's so wrong with it? Well, it could not only set the franchise back ONE year in that we're waiting a year to trade these players, but a lot of these players could lose a LOT of trade value(like Corey Hart, or Aoki's value diminishing due to the fact he has one year left under team control) and it's one less year of getting those guys into our system, slashing our payroll and starting the inevitable rebuilding process that's needed to be a LEGITIMATE contender.

I think you might be underestimating our management team... And I think you might be underestimating the foresight that our management team has had over the past 6-7 years. We gave him a conditional 2 million dollar contract hoping he could perform well enough to either help this team if we managed to get competitive or to turn around and flip if that was the case. If not, well, we took a flier on what basically amounted to what we would have spent on our 1st round draft pick this year. And in return, we got the O's 4th best prospect, someone who can play 3rd, 2nd or 1st and whom the Brewers reportedly viewed as a 1st round talent, but had signability concerns, all for a guy who has had a extremely consistent career and then struggled last year inflating his ERA. BA's take on the prospect coming our way; So....is he worth the million dollars and change we paid for K-Rod? Looks like Melvin's made another brilliant move. The moves he's made in the last year are all looking pretty good right now. The Greinke trade is an overwhelming success even if Hellweg and Pena never do anything(and I believe both will). Gomez was signed at just the right time. K-Rod's deal paid off handsomely. Now he just needs to turn Axford, Aoki, Gallardo, Lohse and perhaps Henderson into more of the high ceiling prospects we're lacking. I meant to say that I believe both Hellweg and Pena COULD contribute over the long run. Hellweg, Peralta and Nelson are essentially three pitchers with very similar ceilings(if you use the word literally, their best case scenario upside). All three have the stuff to be #1's. Even with Hellweg's terrible outings(which wouldn't look NEARLY as bad with some average HS defense behind him, he still has a heavy 98 MPH GB and a strikeout pitch, plus a developing 3rd pitch). If one turns into a top end #2 and the other two into GOOD 3 or 4's, that's a great start on jump starting this rebuilding effort.

This question is flawed from the get go. We're not a big market team where 11 million dollars a year and 7 million dollars in deferred money(which would likely be picked up by the team trading him in almost any scenario) means significantly less. What's more, you can't get a non-biased answer IMO because you know your own prospects much better than you know other teams. Some value them more, some devalue them because they tend to focus on what a prospect can't do as opposed to what he can do while he's developing. Not to mention we're not competitive. Of course if we WERE in contention, I think a fair return would be a pitcher like Jimmy Nelson, not a top rated prospect, but one who I think he a very similar upside to Wily Peralta(which is unquestionably that of an ace however unlikely it may be that either will ever become one) and then I'd look at the lower levels and guys with big arms and or tools. A Tyrone Taylor/Mitch Hanniger+a Brooks Hall and we eat 5 million dollars. Tyler Thornburg is a guy that I might be interested in as well. There's another reason this question is so difficult to answer however and that's because of the almost complete uncertainty of almost every prospect we have. We have a slew of big time boom or bust type prospects like Roache, Taylor, Coulter, Arcia, Bradley and.....we all know who most of these guys are. We have what has to be the worst system in baseball because we lack a single "can't miss," type prospect, but we DO have quite a few players who could easily rise up through the system and in 18 months be top 50 prospects. Jimmy Nelson for example. I fail to see why he couldn't end up becoming a Wily Peralta clone. Both have that heavy-heavy mid to upper 90's fastball, both have a wipeout slider, and an underrated change(which Peralta has certainly shown). In fact, an interesting article about Nelson, and he hasn't slown down much since this article by Newman, INCLUDING an interesting piece about him facing everyone's next Willie Mays in Puig and putting him away with his slider.

I mean this respectfully, but to what end? Lets say that Lohse continues the trend he's been on? His ERA is a little inflated this year with the late start(IMO) and just some bad luck. But lets say the next 2 1/2 years he wins 20 games a year, has an ERA of 2.86 like he did last year with the Cards and he continues to pitch well. Which is obviously highly unlikely(though I do believe he's the type of pitcher that will age well). What's that do for the Brewers? Now his time in Milwaukee is done, we've likely been a 70 win team during that time period and....we're no better off(if anything, we're worse off as he might have helped us win a few games that hurt our draft position over that time). It's time to realize we're in rebuilding mode and that the VERY FACT that he's really "rounded into form," is the whole reason you trade him. Let me ask you this; Gallardo hasn't pitched as well the first half of this year. Are you then more inclined to trade him? And if the answer to that question is yes, you have to look at the other side of the equation.

As I said in the previous thread a few months ago in which I suggested that Lohse might be a highly sought out pitcher at the trade deadline, I just don't understand how you can stamp his contract as having "negative value?" Why? Because you look two years down the road at a control pitcher who's been extremely effective despite having almost no spring training on a bad team and say that at age 36 he just GOING to hit a "wall?" How about the positive value he has right now? How are you quantifying his "value?" It seems you're just making two wild assumptions; A-the teams that may trade for him are going to operate under the same fiscal restrictions the Brewers operate under, and B-those same teams aren't willing to take that chance for a player who can clearly help them and contribute RIGHT NOW and there is little reason to think that he won't next year. As for this "15 million dollar mistake," and the question of how many people could make that type of mistake and keep their job. Well, again, this whole 15 million dollars is your own creation. When I started the thread I believe you said his negative value was another random number. Bottom line. He doesn't have swing and miss stuff and I was skeptical of him coming into this season, but the guy knows how to pitch. He just wears out the black on the outside corner, mixes it up, gets ground balls, throws 4 pitches for strikes, and he's pitching exceptionally well right now despite him having an unusually high HR ration this year. One would think after ALL the trades we've seen, the Alex Rios being claimed off waivers, Vernon Wells, the Josh Beckett/Crawford/Gonzalez trade, the Marlins trade with the Blue Jays...it blows me away how people can so vehemently argue that his contract is going to be a huge detriment in trading him when he's due 11 million the next two years. And as for this "positive/negative," value stuff, how about all the positive value that his relatively modest contract this year(this year especially) and next year very well could provide? I think the Brewers at most should offer to pay the deferred part of his salary and ask for a good package of prospects in return. I also think it's especially interesting that his contract has been described as being "team friendly," and a POSITIVE in more than one place.

I would have to think that after the Rangers gave up Mike Olt, Justin Grimm and two other prospects(one who has very impressive minor league numbers, including 0 HR's given up in 160 minor league innings pitched thus far) that Lohse would have some value, especially with the way he's pitching.

I would like to see where this is a fact. Lohse contract was $11M each year. It is just that $7M of this years contract is deferred. For example to be clean, if the Brewers trade him after the season, the trading team would pick up his 2 year and $22M contract and nothing more. This isn't ARam's contract that was truly backloaded. You can just go to cotts or search any article that details his contract.

Without being sarcastic, I don't see where the Randy Wolf comment comes into play....at all. Nobody is comparing international signings to signing ML FA's. The debate was why don't the Brewers just use their whole pool or the majority of it on the very best player rather than splitting it up between two good prospects. The person who said these are 16 year old kids was making the point that....well.....they're 16 year old kids. Fine, they were right on Miguel Cabrera, but if the Major League draft is a crap shoot with regard to the 1st round picks, then imagine taking our all the 18 and 21 year old kids? I would agree with the premise that you try to sign 2-3 good prospects that you're high on rather than spend it all on one prospect. Unless there is that Miguel Cabrera, and at 16 that's extremely rare.

This says it all for me. There's not one pitcher I'm convinced is a major league starter. I think Nelson is the guy I'd bet on if anyone. I thought Jungmann was going to be a sure starter, but now, I'm not so sure. Otherwise, Hellweg, Thornburg and Pena all might be best off as relievers (so might Peralta). I don't think there needs to be one. I think the Brewers need to(and recently have been) assembling as many good, strong, power arms as possible and trying to develop them. Hellweg was one of two pitchers with a sub 4.00 ERA in the PCL and he was around 2.84. He's looked very bad thus far in the big leagues, but my god if there has EVER been a pitcher who has been in by his defense more than him to start his career I can't recall one. He's essentially Wily Peralta. Very similar pitchers. Peralta right now looks like an ace. Jungman is coming along very well. Jimmy Nelson is similar to Peralta and Hellweg. Thornburg concerns me more because unlike the top three(Wily, Nelson and Hellweg) his fastball is straight. Those three all have the upsides to be #1's. Thornburg needs to pitch backwards a little bit and elevate his fastball to be more effective. Pena has that fastball/change combo that could keep hitters just completely on their heels all night long. And we continue to add pitching in the system. We had a really bad run for a couple years that can be chalked up to bad luck, but I think the state of the young arms in our system is far too negative. Three Peralta starts ago I would have gone Nelson/Peralta/Hellweg. Now obviously I'd flip the first two, but I've still seen enough pure stuff out of Hellweg to say that he's absolutely got top of the rotation stuff and maybe if we could convert simple double plays, and field simple ground balls, he could get out of an inning without letting it blow up(which will happen with young guys when things start going wrong). 1 year from now, who knows what we'll have. We could have a top 3 pick in our system, a top prospect in our system via trade and these guys could be behind those guys in the big scheme of things. Doesn't change how good they can be, just means we might have a couple guys with bigger chances of reaching that potential.

He very well could be a Myers is they stop forcing him to play a position he is awful at. He was drafted for his big bat. There is one position in baseball (maybe 2 including SS) where your big bat cannot advance without defense and that is catcher. I get it, they see/hope they have a young kid who could be a Mauer type of offensive weapon back there but he will always a liability defensively. He just doesn't seem to have that natural feel for it. Why put all that extra stress on him? Let him do what he does best....hit the crap out of the ball. I'd like to see them try 3rd base with him first before corner outfield. We have ton of COF's and he could always slide to first in the future as well. We have a big hole at 3rd base and is worth a shot to try him out there in spring training next season It's baffling to me how we take a kid who was in HS at this time one year ago and is 19 years old and we make definitive statements that he will NEVER good at. Really? Why? I've seen him play. He's got a great feel for the game, he's very fluid and flexible. He's also very raw, but he has a good arm. ALL I hear is how the Brewers lack skill position players, etc..etc...and we have a young, talented catcher and we want to move him before the class behind him graduates HS. It's nothing to move him when he hits A+/AA if the need arises, but this is how you develop the top catchers. You don't pull the plug while they're still in their teens in rookie ball.

I don't think I even implied that. I was more referencing the fact that several players have put up better or similar numbers on competing teams and asking for him to make a case for Goldschmidt. His case was that he seems to have gotten big hits whenever he has been watching. I was hoping for more, and your point about AZ leading the division, while I don't agree with it, is along the lines of what I was expecting as it sometimes influences voters. Lets not let this discussion morph into the old WAR debate please. Yeah, but you did it specifically by ranking them by WAR. Carlos Gomez still ranks #1 in WAR on ESPN. I'd say that's used or cited by more writers than fangraphs which I think is more reliable. Anyway, I don't think there is that much debate about WAR. It's one of the most useful tools in comparing a players value. Great stat. But again, we have to think how writers think, and that it IS flawed(as you yourself have said). For what it's worth(not much IMO), Vegas does(or did anyway as I saw it the day I posted) have him as the odds on favorite to win NL MVP. I don't see a clear cut favorite yet. If Segura was on the Nats or the Braves, D-backs/Dodgers, Cards...he'd be right up there and I think he has staying power. Moreso than Gomez as I don't think Gomez will be the top CF'er. I would like to see McCutch win it. Of course this is all projecting what these guys will do the second half. I DON'T think Segura is going to slow down too much. Sadly.....I could easily see Yaddy winning it as he's the most dominant defensive player in the game. He's Pudge like, but better than Pudge defensively in that I think he blocks the ball better, and while I know some don't agree and you can't quantify it, the Cards pitchers always seem to thrive. You bring in a guy like AJ Burnett who could go one way and dominate or go the other and struggle, it seems like the Cards pitchers ALWAYS dominate. Jake Westbrook? Pinero? Lohse? Suppan? Lynn? Man this list could go on. I think he calls such a great game that just having had played with him makes you a better pitcher(though there are some pitchers only 10 MPH on their fastball can fix*cough*Suppan*cough). But if the D-backs hold off the Dodgers, IF, then I think Goldschmidt has a real legit chance to win it just because that team doesn't have a lot of offense, he's putting up huge numbers, they were an unexpected team(voters love that). If the Dodgers pull ahead to win, Clayton Kershaw could also have an outside chance to win if he keeps doing his Sandy Koufax impersonation.

Nope, obviously I didn't forget that. I said I don't think he'll translate well to 2B. I think he was always a bad fit there, like Coulter is at catcher, but it's the Brewers -- square peg/round hole defensive assignment strategy... I agree with you on Lawrie, but where is this almost non-stop criticism coming from directed towards the Brewers regarding players positions? Coulter at the ripe old age of 19 can't play catcher because? Why? His size? He was a HS wrestler, and a very good one, a state champ. I don't see why we'd give up on him at catcher THIS early. If he's struggling defensively when he's 22 or so, you can make a relatively easy adjustment. Why take guys off of premium positions before you've even given them a chance to develop at them? This ALL seems to stem from the Weeks/Braun/Prince/Hart period in which there weren't a whole lot of choices available.

I think that's a terrible idea. I've always been a huge fan of Lawrie and thought he should have been a 3rd basemen right out of the gate instead of a 2nd basemen. He doesn't have the quickness IMO needed for 2nd base. He's got good hands, he has good range and a good arm. 3rd seems perfect for him. At 2nd base I see him struggling with the DP balls a bit and his range. Plus, his arm strength isn't nearly as valuable.

Again, Bryce Harper is listed at the exact same height & weight. The only issue I think there is with Trout is how and when his speed will leave. Where? Fangraphs has Mike Trout at 6'1 and 210 and Bryce Harper at 6'3 215. Of course this was before the stories that he gained 40 pounds in the off-season and showed up at 245-250 pounds with stories of his weight gaining coming due to eating 6-7-8 big cheeseburgers for lunch while Harper gained weight intentionally by lifting. But either way, even if they're listed as being the same size somewhere, they do NOT have the same body types. Trout is a lock thicker and a lot stockier. Harper is longer and leaner. I mean, if you use Baseball Reference/ESPN for height and weight, do you think they're weighing guys in? I remember there was a 3 year period where Prince put on a bunch of weight, then took it back off and his listed weight never changed. Edit-Here is an article that touches on that. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1544561-why-mike-trouts-weight-gain-is-a-concern-but-bryce-harpers-is-not At the end of the day though I think in 20 year players are going to look back at these three players(and perhaps a one or two others like Profar) and might still be arguing who had the better career and who was the better player. Harper's power and arm is off the charts, Trout is a amazing 5 tool player and Machado could do some historic things himself. Wouldn't surprise me to see Harper hit 50 HR's several times and end up near the record, Trout to be a 400-400 type guy with a OBP well over .400 and multiple time GG'er and Machado to blow way past 3,000 hits. Of course these guys are about 64 years old combined, so a bit premature. I'll just have fun watching and hoping that Segura is wearing a Brewers jersey for most of that time.

I'll go with Machado as well by the slimmest of margins over Hart for the reasons you mentioned. He's an absolute stud. That play he made recently at 3rd base was one of the best plays I've ever seen a 3rd basemen make and he's also 20 years old. Trout's 10+ WAR season was just incredible, but I think finding a SS who can seamlessly move over to 3rd base is equally rare. Plus, I think a lot of those 40 1st half doubles will turn into HR's as he ages. Segura's great, but I just can't put him in this category. IN order I'd go; Machado Trout Harper Segura as a distant 4th.