HiAndTight
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Link Report for Sat. 4/26 - Sounds, Stars Victorious
HiAndTight replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
I had some suspicion that Fernandez would only sign for a few teams but I think the Brewers could have gotten him but they would have had to of gone over slot for him. Probably would have had to of given him close to 1-3 pick range money. I remember hearing something along these lines(nothing as definitive as him saying he wouldn't sign with anyone but the Marlins) when he was having a breakout year last year. Still, it's hard to look at right now. I'm still not over the fact that the Yankees came out of nowhere and signed Tex because Boston was in on him and we lost the pick that eventually became Trout to the Angles. IIRC the Brewers were supposed to be very high on Trout that year suggesting that there is at least a good chance he'd have become a Brewer. Trout/Gomez/Braun....that's like a video game OF. -
What do you think of our Wang? Slot Worthy?
HiAndTight replied to lcbj68c's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
To add to this, the Brewers bullpen doesn't have a single pitcher in the top 30 RP for pitches thrown. The highest ranked Brewer is K-Rod, at #33, and the only other Brewer in the top 75 is Will Smith (#49). (Not sure if the leader board has been updated with tonight's stats yet, but either way the bullpen is far from overworked despite an incredible month that has led to heavy reliance on our set-up/closer combo). Exactly. And this is something we should be THRILLED about rather than just trying our best to find the downside to it. "Luckily," for some on here, the Brewers will go through stretches where they won't need to throw K-rod, Smith and Thornburg as much. And Kintzler is back from the DL(which had nothing to do with his usage...over or under) as he only pitched back to back one day, made 5 appearances over the first 9 days, only once was used on back to back days, two of which he threw 7 and 3 pitches and threw 74 in total. That was just a case of having a tired arm coming out of ST'ing. One more quick thing, we'd almost certainly be 27th in innings pitched by our relievers had the teams below us had played 24 games. A couple are at 21, 22 and are 2/3rd or 1 inning behind us. -
I don't know how tied to Overbay Melvin really is. He basically just picked him up to try and make the best of a terrible situation at 1st base. Nava on the other hand could be a significant upgrade over not only Overbay, but to our overall team depth. Carp is another guy who could be a nice addition. I just wonder how enthusiastic the Red Sox would be to part with either given that they're great platoon partners with Gomes and you still are relying on Sizemore to stay healthy and contribute all year long.
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I want absolutely no part of getting rid of not only Bianchi from our bench, but also Schafer. I love having Schafer on the bench. He's almost the ideal 4th OF'er. He's can play all 3 OF positions very, very well, is a left handed bat and can hit for a high average. I think these moves would only weaken our bench. I'd rather see Weeks and Overbay as the guys who are sent packing in order to upgrade our bench.
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And he looks even better this year posting a line of .265/.393/.529/.922 this year. And he hit 75 HR's the past two years. I realize he's got severe defensive limitations, but the guy walks, hits for a ton of power, would cost much in the way of prospects and given the fact that we're a RH'ed heavy lineup, he'd give us another big power threat in the 6th/7th hole.
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Well yeah, but how many guys in baseball have Ryan Braun's talent? I do believe that his thumb is bothering him this year and is contributing to his walks being down, but apparently he's just so good it doesn't matter. But guys like Khris Davis who've have walk rates around 13-15% in his minor league career to have walked just 1.2% of the time thus far, I think there's going to be a more direct correlation between his walk rate and his overall success than someone like Ryan Braun. Even Gomez' walk rate has jumped up to around 8% this year. Davis can still contribute without walking and he could still hit 30 HR's, hit .280 and put up a .500 SLG, but if he's going to be as good as we think/hope he can, he's going to have to get his walk rate up. But like everything else, he's only played in 20 games and I agree with AdvantageSchnieder, he looks like he's getting more comfortable and taking more pitches as of late.
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What do you think of our Wang? Slot Worthy?
HiAndTight replied to lcbj68c's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Who cares? He doesn't NEED to be a good pitcher for the Brewers this season. Do you even realize how absurd the argument you're making is? You're essentially saying that if the Twins would have been good in 2000 they should have dumped him because they were going to be competitive. Never mind the fact that he was the best pitcher in baseball for about 5-6 years and was absolutely dominant. Why does this have to be an either or? Why can't we try and be competitive this year AND try and keep a promising young arm for the future? Yes, he does need to be a good pitcher. Playoff contending teams don't intentionally assemble a roster with a terrible/untrustworthy pitcher. You need every quality arm you can get. And yes, I am saying that if the Twins had been competitive in 2000 they would not have have kept Santana and his 6.49 ERA around. It is absurd to use part of a playoff contending roster as a developmental squad. Well, again you're wrong. These are playoff teams since 2000 that have kept rule 5 players on their roster the entire season. 2012 Orioles, Ryan Flaherty, INF 2011 Diamondbacks, Joe Paterson, LHP 2011 Phillies, Michael Martinez, INF 2010 Phillies, David Herndon, RHP 2005 Red Sox, Adam Stern, OF 2004 Cardinals, Hector Luna, INF 2004 Astros, Willy Taveras, OF 2004 Red Sox, Lenny DiNardo, RHP 2003 Athletics, Mike Neu, RHP 2002 Athletics, Jason Grabowski, INF And you trying to argue in hindsight...even with the benefit of knowing that Johan Santana was the best pitcher in baseball for a 5-6 year period that the Twins shouldn't have kept him on their 25 man roster. Of course I asked if you honestly believed the Twins SHOULD have kept Santana on their roster, not WOULD they have if they were competitive as that's just pure conjecture. In any event, all the evidence is pointing to you being 100 percent wrong on this. -
What do you think of our Wang? Slot Worthy?
HiAndTight replied to lcbj68c's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It's not the usage, it's the lack of usage that has led to the over-usage of other guys and Ron's reasoning for it. Ron won't use him because he doesn't want to hurt his confidence. What a load of crap. Wang faced Major Leaguers in spring, he was a professional is Taiwan, he knows he's not ready and is only on the roster due to a technicality. If his confidence wasn't destroyed after his outing in Pittsburgh, nothing will. The pitcher always has the advantage over the hitter because hitting is hard. Having Wang face a bad lefty hitter or two, regardless of the score, is rarely going to affect the outcome of a game. You realize that's the exact same thing, right? His usage as in how much he's used. And he's not overworking our pen. Our pen ranks 23rd in the league in innings pitched, even if with some of the guys who've made more appearances, they've have very low stress innings(ie, very few pitches thrown). So our bullpen ranks 23rd in innings pitched. It ranks 4th in MLB in BP ERA(would be 1st if not for Wang's 2 outings). We're 18-6 so we've relied on our best relievers FAR more in the first 24 games than we will over the normal course of events. But you're worked up over the usage(I'm sorry, lack of usage because the two are apparently different) of our rule 5 draft pick who simply hasn't gotten much of a chance as of yet because our team has been TOO good. Tell me if I'm missing anything or if this sums it up? If we get to August and he's pitched 6 innings, then I'll agree with you there is a problem. Until then, I'm not going to complain because things are going too good and we can't get our last reliever into enough games this early on. -
2014 Regular Season Divisional Prospect News
HiAndTight replied to TooLiveBrew's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
How scary is that Pirates OF going to be? Throw Bell into the mix(though I'm guessing he ends up at 1st since Polanco has speed) and that's as talented a young OF as I can recall seeing. -
1-A trade for Hart would be a short term solution. That wouldn't preclude a trade in the off-season for Montero. It's not like there's a limit to how many trades you can make with a team. But the entire logic behind trading for Hart would be because he's only there for a year. Montero's a 23 year old player who's struggling now, but has a huge upside. So he doesn't fit what the Brewer are trying to do which is find a short term fix, and it would make no sense for the M's to give up on him unless they got a huge return. So yeah, I'd prefer to get Montero as well. I'd rather get Eric Hosmer from the Royals in the off-season. But the point here is who can we find relatively cheap for THIS YEAR to fix the 1st base problem. 2-You're making two giant assumptions with regard to the motivations for the Mariners and their trades. That Jack Z is going to be out of a job if they don't win this year(I believe that's been the narrative on this board for the last 3-4 years starting with when he traded for Josh Lueke). Then you assume that if they're out of it, they're going to demand an impact player for the next year or two. We're not talking about making a trade for CC Sabathia. We're talking about a player they took a flier on who has very limited value, who's not going to get a qualifying offer next year. I doubt teams are going to be lining up to offer a top 100 prospect(which is what I believe Nelson is) who's MLB ready for half a year of a 34 year old Corey Hart. I think if the Mariners are out of it there's a much stronger chance that if Seattle's out of it, they'll look to dump Hart, save a little bit of money and go with Smoak, Seager, Morrison, Montero and company at 1st/DH.
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I think it was his arm that was always questioned. I knew that his arm limited him right off the top to LF/1B, but I was also under the impression that his range was poor and that he was a poor OF'er aside from his arm. But I agree, he's been a very pleasant surprise.
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What do you think of our Wang? Slot Worthy?
HiAndTight replied to lcbj68c's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Right. And I'm sure if Roenicke brought Wang into a 3-3 game in the 7th or 8th inning vs STL to face the bottom of the order(I forget, who comes up after the bottom of the order?) and he blew the lead, you would still completely support his decision, right? Yeah, he's the dunce for not pitching the kid in a close game at this point in the season. I think some people just HAVE to have some things to complain about. Almost everything has gone perfectly. I guess it's a good thing that the biggest thing that some people are getting themselves all worked up about is the usage of a 21 year old rule 5 draftee. -
What do you think of our Wang? Slot Worthy?
HiAndTight replied to lcbj68c's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Who cares? He doesn't NEED to be a good pitcher for the Brewers this season. Do you even realize how absurd the argument you're making is? You're essentially saying that if the Twins would have been good in 2000 they should have dumped him because they were going to be competitive. Never mind the fact that he was the best pitcher in baseball for about 5-6 years and was absolutely dominant. Why does this have to be an either or? Why can't we try and be competitive this year AND try and keep a promising young arm for the future? By the way, the only thing the Brewers have proven is that they're a very good team through 23 games. And it's a blast watching this team right now, but do you really think they're a better team than STL, LAD and Washington right off the top? If we had a roster like the Dodgers and the money they had, we could afford to just get rid of such a promising young arm, but we're not. We have to take every single chance we can to develop young talented arms. I'm sorry, I just don't understand why there would be such a vehement counter argument to keeping a talent like Wang in our organization at this point when he has not done a single thing to hurt this team. And especially when the alternative would be to give that pitcher back to a young team in our own division that's got a much brighter looking future as of now(a lot can change, but they have power arms, an OF that might be one of the most talented and athletic of the last 30 years when Polanco comes up). So it's not just potentially huge coup for us to get steal a talent like Wang, it's a loss for the Pirates. -
I mean ABSOLUTELY zero disrespect when I say this, but when I hear a reputable site say that he has an agreement in place with the Brewers and then no further reports disputing that other than a poster on this board(who may very well have a source that knows or represents Lara, but I have no way of knowing this) that doesn't really tell me anything. And you realize you're complaining about a report that you believe to be false that has in no way been proven false yet, right? I'm still feeling pretty confident that Lara ends up in the Brewers organization.
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Taking pitches and working the counts can also have a cumulative effect. in an era with strict pitch counts- for most at 100 pitches- it can be extremely advantageous to take out a team's starting pitcher an inning or two early by working their pitch count. High OBP teams like the 2000s Red Sox & Yankees were extremely adept at this. there's a reason the red sox had so many come from behind wins- once they got a team's ace outta there- they really started to go to work. I do however, agree, that a hitter can be disciplined and still aggressive. Roenicke referenced those two teams when asked this question(about his team being too aggressive). He said that he believes there is a difference in the AL and NL because of the DH vs the Pitcher hitting. That you have to be a bit more aggressive when you get good pitches because you don't want to work deep into the count only to see the pitcher come up. But as the article above points out, his message was he wants his guys to be patient, but not to draw walks, to get good pitches. Gomez is the perfect example of this. He seems to be taking more of those bad pitches and forcing pitchers to throw more hittable pitches which has led to him becoming one of the games best players as of today.
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What do you think of our Wang? Slot Worthy?
HiAndTight replied to lcbj68c's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
There is a perfect solution. Try to trade him back, or release him. He's just a luxory we can't afford. Look, even in games a starter goes 7+ innings RR will still burn through at least 3/5 of KRod, Henderson, Thornburg, Duke, Smith. Because even if a reliever doesn't pitch a full inning, he will play the match-up game. Replace him with Kintzler when he comes back, and keep shuffling the last spot between Fiagarro, Wooten, Fiers, whoever. But everyone in the pen better be able to pitch in games other than 12-2 blow-outs. No, he's a luxury we can easily afford and I would say given our league best record this far, there isn't much evidence that you can show me that proves otherwise. We've been given the chance to pick up what's been compared to a 1st round pick for nothing. And we want to just dump him because of what? We have 5 starters who go deep into games, we have several relievers who are formers starters and/or can go multiple innings. And in what world does a bullpen have 7 guys that you can comfortably rely on pitching in high leverage situations? Not to mention, it's still SO early and he's got TWO MAJOR LEAGUE INNINGS under his belt. Thornburg gave up 4 HR's in his first major league outing. So forgive me for jumping to the conclusion that he's not capable of being the 7th guy in the pen, especially given what the Brewers are trying to accomplish by keeping him. The same people that want to just get rid of a talent like him are the FIRST to scream and call for any and everyone's heads when he becomes a good starter for the Pirates down the road. Jeez...show just a modicum of patience. If it becomes an issue, they'll figure it out. As hard as this is to believe, the entire season isn't going to consist of 1 run games or close games. Things will balance out. It was just two weeks ago people were saying Henderson was wasting a spot in the pen because they can't count on him to throw any meaningful innings. It's a fluid situation and a bit more nuanced than you're suggesting. -
I don't think Hart is even playing defense for Seattle yet, nonetheless an OF position. If he only DHs for Seattle, I don't know how comfortable I would be to picking him up for 1B, and I definitely wouldn't pick him up to play OF. Hart's played a little bit in the OF and at 1st in Seattle, but they have Smoak at 1st, so there's no much reason to play him there. They have Ackley...who while he's been a disappointment is certainly a better defensive option and still has upside to him. Almonte is a good defender in CF and Hart would never play CF anyway. And RF, the only OF position Hart is used to is manned by Saunders. I wouldn't have any problem with Hart taking back over at 1st base. He showed enough when he last played there that I have confidence in him. That huge wing span and his ability to dig balls out...I think that rust would come off pretty quickly.
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My whole point was to try and look towards July and to try and project which teams are likely to be out of it and which players on those teams are likely to be made available. The quickest fix would likely be Morales about 2 minutes after pick #12 is submitted on June 4th. But I do think we can hang around with what we have right now just because we've gotten off to a hot start, our pitching is looking great, and we have some teams we should be able to beat up on coming up. So if you can be within 2-3 games of the playoffs by the time these players become available, I think you're still in good shape. And Reynolds is going to hurt you over the course of the season, but he can also really help and carry an offense for stretches. And if Overbay continues to swing the bat well...they might just be solid enough to get by with.
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I think I might rather stick with Reynolds than a guy who won't have seen live MLB pitching in 8 months.* *(I reserve the right to change my mind if Reynolds is hitting .190 come the first week of June) He's a guy who missed two full years due to that injury that almost derailed his career celebrating at home and he came back perfectly fine. He's a veteran hitter. I can't imagine having more confidence in Reynolds than the switch hitting Morales just because he missed the first two months of the year. And his last two seasons have been nearly identical, though last year he was in Seattle, so one would think that his line of .277/.336/.449/.785.
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I just started another thread, but I see it aligns exactly with this thread, so I'll just post it here. It was 37 pages and I hadn't read it all, so I apologize for the overlap. There was recently an article about Drew and Morales on ESPN(about the current compensation system) and the prevailing opinion among the "unnamed MLB execs," in the article was that Morales would likely sign at that point for 1 year and 7.5 million dollars. Morales isn't a star. It looked like he may be on his way to becoming one at 26/27 years of age, but after the infamous injury at home during a celebration, he's kinda settled in as just a good, solid hitter. I know some who believe WAR to be a bit more literal than I do would argue he'd likely only add one win to the team, but I believe if you could plug a switch hitting bat into the 5/6th slot in the order, a guy who can hit ~.280/.330/.450 as opposed to the current situation(which I believe has performed better early in the year than we should expect them to perform the rest of the way) that the chain reaction would be much more than the upgrade WAR may suggest. Vs Righties Gomez-R Gennett-L Braun-R Aram-R Morales-SH Lucroy-R Segura-R Davis-R -I have Davis in the 8th spot right now just because he's not taking any pitches and is hyper aggressive. I'd prefer to put a hitter like that in the 8th spot though Segura isn't exactly Youk right now himself. Lefties Gomez- Segura Braun Aram Lucroy Morales Davis Weeks/Bianchi The Brewers have gotten off to a great start, but I think everyone on the board is in agreement that 1st base is a position in which the Brewers could easily upgrade. It's simply a matter of the resources the Brewers want to put into upgrading the position. I went through a team by team list of teams who are likely to sell at some point. Seattle-Hart would be a nice fit. We know him, I think he likes it here and we can obviously deal with Jack Z who seems to have an affinity for players who were in the system when he was. Smoak would be another option, though the only reason I think Seattle would part with him is if he's not performing well...which would obviously defeat the entire purpose of trying to acquire him. Arizona-Eric Chavez This is one of the guys I'd really like to see us target. The asking price in terms of prospects would have to be very small as he has very little value for AZ if they're out of it. He's obviously got injurires and is not an everyday player anymore, but he's a left handed bat that still has some power and can hit for a decent average and while he's not a GG defender any longer, he's more than capable of playing defense at 1st. 2012-2013 line-.281/.341/.488/.829 with 25 HR's in 506 PA's and 193 games. Could definitely be an upgrade for the final 2-3 months. Cleveland-Carlos Santana Santana is a bit unlikely, but he's been moved to 3rd base and has struggled mightily this year and the Indians still owe him 14 million over the next 2 years plus a team option at 12 million with a 1.2 million dollar buyout. I'm just throwing him in there because I wonder if the Indians still see him as part of their young core, or if he's a player they'd be willing to walk away from and free up a little bit of money. He's a long shot, but he's a talent who can play 1st, 3rd and can catch on occasion. In fact, he could do a lot for your roster. Part of which would be allowing Maldanado to be our enforcer and fill in behind the plate in case of a future suspension. Colorado-Justin Morneau He's having a nice start to the year, and I don't see Colorado staying in the race with their pitching(or lackthereof). He has a reasonable contract. Another nice LH'ed bat to pencil into the 6 hole. KC-Billy Butler is an obvious candidate. I've been a fan of his for years. We'd also have him next year if we picked up his option. I think KC is more likely to try and stay in the race all year long however. They're built to win now after giving up Meyers....but it's a possibility come July. LAD-They're obviously not going to be sellers, but they could very well look to upgrade which COULD squeeze Scott Van Slyke out of the lineup. A big power hitter who's never really gotten regular playing time. Good walk rate, big time power potential. Not sure if they'd want to bring in a guy who's unproven and play him at 1st base and I also haven't got a clue what the Dodgers would look to get in return(not even sure if he's got options remaining in which case they could just as easily send him back down). Miami Marlins-Garrett Jones is a left handed bat who'd be a better option to at least platoon Reynolds with. We all know he's got big time power. Extremely streaky player, but the upgrade doesn't have to be massive. SFG- Michael Morse With Posey and Belt manning 1st base everyday, Morse is similar to Reynolds, but hits for a higher BA. He's playing LF in SF right now, but is another guy who could be a nice pickup for a stretch run. Tampa Bay-James Loney With the hits that the Rays keep taking, losing Co-Ace Matt Moore among others they're the type of team that could make a move for the future and deal away someone like Loney even if they're only a few games out around the deadline. Loney is a plus defender and has seen a resurgence in Tampa Bay. A big left handed hitter, he doesn't hit for power, but he walks, and the Rays may be more motivated to move him due to the fact that his deal is back loaded as he's owed 15 million over the next 2 years. That would suggest to me that it would cost very little in the way of prospects. At the end of the day, unless we're willing to part with players like Thornburg, Nelson or any of our other best young players, this is the list that I think is the most feasible. Morales as a FA and a list of 2nd tier 1st basemen. I think Loney would be the biggest upgrade among the players listed as he would be a big upgrade defensively at 1st, can hit .300 and adds a left handed bat to the lineup. He could hit 5th with Luc batting 6th giving us more balance, saving runs, and giving us a more well rounded lineup without decimating our already weak farm system.
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Marco Estrada 2015 and beyond
HiAndTight replied to Jose Cardenal1's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I expect many to feel the same way and I'd imagine the casual fans would be even more upset about such a move. But in my opinion he's really only our "defacto ace," because he's home grown and he's been our opening day starter for several years. I don't think he's any better than Lohse or Graza and I think Peralta and Thornburg could very well end up being better. And yes, I believe last year was an outlier. But even if you use those 2007-2012 years, he never made that step you were hoping for to become an elite starting pitcher. He was incredibly consistent and very-very valuable. My thinking is just that his velocity and his peripherals are slipping, yet his ERA is down and as such teams may be willing to really pay for it. In reality it'd be a nightmare for public relations, but in theory it could be one of those types of moves you make that 2-3 years down the road pays enormous dividends. -
I guess I don't understand why this is? He's 20 years old playing in LowA. His bat hasn't been good enough yet that his defense has been holding him back from getting promotions and catchers who can hit are such a valuable commodity I see no logic to moving him this early. Unless you're talking about moving him over to 3rd, a position he's never really played(in HS or any other point even prior to being drafted) then he's likely to end up at a corner OF spot or as a 1st basemen. Why wouldn't we give him more time to develop? From what I've seen he's got a very strong arm, he's got great flexibility behind the plate and if he develops as most catchers do, he could ready just when Luc is nearing free agency. He's a good athlete. If his bat does progress so much so that he's absolutely raking yet can't handle his defensive duties then how long does it take to transition someone like him to RF/LF or 1B?
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Marco Estrada 2015 and beyond
HiAndTight replied to Jose Cardenal1's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I just REALLY hope that he can think outside the box just a little bit. If we get to the trade deadline healthy and maintain the status quo, ie, Nelson, Thornburg, Fiers all pitching well(in addition to Jungman and Bradley among others) that they'd at least entertain trade offers for a Gallardo. You can say this about any team, but the Brewers are just a little bad luck and one draft away from having 3 of the top players in baseball. Tex signs with the Red Sox, the Brewers get the comp pick from the Yankees and get Trout. We select Fernandez and Gray over Jungman and Bradley and we're suddenly a team that could contend with anyone in baseball and may have the brightest future. The most extreme of examples to be certain, but my point is that even though we're in a great place right now and may be at the trade deadline, a move such as trading one of our top starters, while being counter intuitive, could yield massive gains in the future. Obviously with the benefit of hindsight things look obvious, but the Brewers need to stop thinking about how they can scrape together a competitive team next year and start thinking about how they can put together a championship team in 5 years(maybe a compromise between Theo's approach and what we've been doing). -
What do you think of our Wang? Slot Worthy?
HiAndTight replied to lcbj68c's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
So as opposed to throwing Duke(who I don't think if very good, but has pitched very well) or Gorz when he gets healthy, Kintzler, Thornburg, Smith or Henderson, you'd advocate throwing Wang in a close game. What if we do that 2-3 times and we lose the games as a direct result. The drop off right now, especially given the fact that Wang's confidence level is not very high is pretty significant between all those pitchers. At the very least I would want it to be in a game in which we're down a couple runs. There is no perfect solution here, but there is a lot of complaining about how much we're stunting the growth of a 21 year old left hander who would otherwise be in the Pirates system. -
What do you think of our Wang? Slot Worthy?
HiAndTight replied to lcbj68c's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Actually we do. I have no idea with what frequency that Wang is throwing these side sessions, but Roenicke has been asked about the fact that he hasn't been used and how he(Wang) is in a difficult situations. He acknowledged it's difficult for Wang to develop, but that he's working with the coaches, throwing on the side. This was probably about 10 games in, so I don't know if they're still doing it(though I would assume they are). I'm just curious Crew07 what your alternative is? Give him back to the Pirates? How to you suggest we both keep him and pitch him like we would pitch if he was in A ball while still trying to win games? Just say screw it and throw him into close games?

