HiAndTight

Yes, I think I do. But again, given Detroits situation, a guy like Axford or K-Rod could have a ton of value to him. So could Corey Hart. I'm trying to think bigger. Salary cutting wise, and top tier prospects in return. We know their owner is desperate to win RIGHT NOW and has a ton of money. Does Grienke+Axford+Hart get us Castellanos+Jacob Turner? Turner becomes our top prospect, Castellanos our top position prospect, and both are very young for their leagues(Turner's in the big leagues right now, but he probably shouldn't be and Greinke would take his spot. Turner's a guy who throws 92-94 with a very good curve and a solid change who is projected to be a big GB pitcher at the big league level. Rick Porcello with more K's is the report I've read on him. Add those two, plus the fact that we'd completely be tanking for the rest of this year and would likely end up with a top 10 pick next year, our picks this year, possibly comp picks as it's probably worth it to offer Marcum arbitration given the fact that this will be his last big deal and I don't think he'd turn down 4 years at 55 or so million for 1 year at 13.5, and our farm system could be one of the best next year. And by the way, for those of you declaring our farm system the among the worst in the game, can we possibly take a look at what's actually happening with OUR farm system right now? It's not one of the worst in the game. It's probably around 14-16 at this point, and with a trade like this would be in the upper 5-6 at the least IMO.

I don't know how to say this without coming off a bit arrogant, but I personally find this to be ridiculous. We shall see if Melvin trades Greinke at all, and if he does, if he trades for short term replacements requiring only mediocre players in return because that would make him a moron. How many handles does TCO7 have on here? And for those of you who watch the Brewers, Melvin's been on a couple times this year, most recently about two weeks ago when he stated that Thornburg could easily move up to the big leagues, but you have to consider long term considerations. He went on to talk about how the system is void of position prospects, and how the most important thing is to rebuild the system. So do if you think that Grienke is going to be traded for the likes of Jerry Hairston Jr., Lyle Overbay, a #5 pitcher, then again,you must really think of him as a moron. Which I just don't understand. He's been at the helm of the Brewers resurgence from nearly 16 years of being completely irrelevant and has made some great trades. And even the trade that didn't work out great for us, didn't work out great for the other teams either, ie, we haven't given up superstars in virtually any trade we've made with the possible exception of Nelson Cruz who was put on waivers and every single team passed on, and Brett Lawrie, who...as it seems, most don't share the same opinion I do that it was a terrible trade anyway. So...

Seriously? Hudson was offered up for Prince when Prince had two years left. He was trying to get him, but wanted more and the White Sox wouldn't give more. So he was exactly where he should have been. Where was he on Cahill and Gonzalez? Ummm..using some common sense and not trading away Thornburg and two of our other top prospects(at least) to acquire either. Those are three players that would have been ridiculous for the Brewers to have traded for when they were on the market or to have accepted the Chicago deal.

I like those projections because they're extremely low. I suspect over the next 6 years he'll average roughly 190 hits and 33-35 HR's. I just pray we don't ruin his prime years.

And that's pretty much it for me. Ryan Braun's lone flaw was those god awful Remetee t-shirts. I don't know if I would like the guy if I ran into him in SoCal and he was out having a few drinks, not exactly sure what type of guy he is, but as a Brewers fan...it's really amazing how lucky we are to have a guy like Ryan Braun....A SoCal guy who went to Miami ACTUALLY commit to us for essentially his entire career(he could of course play out the last couple years as a DH trying to win a WS ala Paul Molitor, but it's 2012 and he's not a FA until after 2021, so it's foolish to even mention it. He gave up....seriously...100 million? 80million? I can't even fathom what his market would have been after next season. 10 years 220? I really don't know. I will say this. He shouldn't be playing right now. Anyone see him go after the double by Roberts in LF? Braun may not have a great first step, or be able to read a ball great, but when he has a beat on it, he can run it down. Watching him on that play, he looked like it was going to be out of the park and it ended up a couple feets away and he was just jogging. I'm not an alarmist, but I mean.....Braun is to the Brewers what the auto industry is to Detroit right now....pretty much our now, our future and our past....hate to see him tear up what was a strain. Though...what do I know?

I'm not arguing against Gallo, I'm arguing against making a predetermined decision to draft position players. If you have three guys you believe can be Gallardo type pitchers(they won't, but bear with me) how hard is it to then trade them in the future if you find yourself with a surplus of young power arms who are big league ready? I'm just saying go BPA. If you have two ranked evenly or almost evenly, go offense, otherwise, just stick to BPA. I'm of the belief you're more likely to find a pitcher who can make an impact where the Brewers are picking, be in the rotation or the pen than a position player. Though I don't disagree at all on the ridiculous lack of position players in this system. Especially with Richardson not playing yet, and the huge steps back several prospects have taken.

Yeah, I suppose there is that chance that is TT gets into the big league rotation, he'd pitch himself into it for the rest of the year regardless of who comes back(sans an obvious innings limit). That's the only thing I'm concerned with when it comes to service time though. Fiers is the guy that should probably get the start though. Either him or Peralta. I don't put as much stock into a bad outing by Peralta as others seem to. But Fiers does seem like a guy who could hold down the fort pretty effectively for a stretch.

By the way, we also had Greinke/Gallardo/Marcum last year and didn't win a World Series. I don't like the argument that, "we had Prince and Braun and didn't win a WS." It's leaving SO much out of the equation. Halladay/Hamels/Lee/Oswalt and Worley didn't win a WS for the Phillies. Moore/Price/Shields/Hellickson and Nieman didn't win a WS for the Rays(though Longo did get them in by being the type of player I'm talking about...the rare player who doesn't just put up great numbers, but can hit great pitchers in big spots. And truth be told, other than hype, I don't believe there is much of a difference between TT, Bradley, Nelson, Jungman than Teheran. I also like a lot of other guys in the system as well, but I'm simply highlighting those guys. I think Brooks Hall could develop into one of those types along the way as well.

No, great pitching and superstar position players win world series. The long exception being the Giants in recent times. And you're not saying that you'd take Teheran over Profar? I can't possibly disagree most with that....Profar hits for average, has the best strike zone in the system and one of the best in the pro, and has a cannon for an arm, as well as outstanding range. Again, I look at a guy who could be Starlin Castro but have an OBP 50 points higher and actually play great defense. I keep repeating this, but when's the last time a SS like that came around? Which is why he'll be traded, but why I'm also so confused as to why you would rather have Teheran. By the way, Teheran is 17th and Castellos is 18th in the updated prospect rankings. And I think Teheran is overrated. I think Braves pitching prospects get overrated because of their history just as I think Yankee prospects in general are overrated. But again, it doesn't sound like the Rangers would even consider trading Profar, so it doesn't really matter. And I wouldn't trade Greinke for Teheran and the Braves wouldn't want Axford as they're set in their BP. Either way, your line of thinking is more accurate anyway as Profar, like I said, is almost certainly not available like Harper, Trout, Moore and Bundy aren't available for anything other than a huge haul, so it doesn't really matter. Your suggestions are more likely. I think, and I've said this in not so many words, are a pipe dream.

I would actually say that's the one area(well, two with Lawrie) that I agree with him on is the Sabathia trade. I was pretty vocal at the time about preferring to trade for Greinke for much less as KC had him on the trade market before re-signing him to that 4 year 38 million dollar contract(or after, I just know he was controlled for a while). I also agree that the Lawrie trade was a terrible one. But the chance of either type of trade happening this year is next to nill, so saying you don't want Melvin to trade for a "rental," playler doesn't make sense to me. The fact is the type of rental player he'd be looking for is a Jarry Hairston type rental player, a utility guy, a Clint Barmes if he gets it together...etc..etc... Maybe we should hold off on the comparisons to Braun. And why is that? For what reason? He's been compared to Rogers Hornsby by(again I believe it was Sickels who said he had that type of ceiling). He's been compared to Harper and Trout. He's certainly surpassed Braun's minor league career when you consider age and where each player came from. Now you add in the fact that one plays below average left field, and the other has a very good chance to be a very good 3rd basemen and has been thus far(which to me was always the logical position to play him). And as for the "hope for a Heyward like rebound," why don't we wait until he has a Heyward like downfall first, THEN lets again keep in mind HE'S in the big leagues right now and Braun was in HiA and AA at the same age. So yeah, I think that Lawrie playing good defense at 3rd base and his incredible tools with the bat most certainly give him the chance to be as valuable a player as Braun if not more so. I understand Brewers fans though who want to compare him to Sheffield...which is ridiculous as Sheff tanked to get out of Milwaukee and nobody has EVER accused Lawrie of being immature. I feel like this is the same as when I said 3 years ago we'd be around 95 million last yaer, 100+ this year and at 110 next year in payroll and was met with the same mocking. That's cool. I'm going out on a limb here and I think the Lawrie stuff is overblown. I'll remind the poster who made the roid comment that Bruan's actually the guy who tested positive. Though I realize it was sarcasm. I think Brewers fans understandably don't want to acknowledge how impressive Lawrie has been thus far as it makes the trade even worse. I get how great Braun is. Love the guy, think it's a pretty fair be he ends up the best Brewer of all time. And yet Lawrie's playing great defense right now, struggling to hit, and he's still put up a 1.3 WAR to Braun's 2.6 despite the fact that...AGAIN, Lawrie's 22, the age...again...Braun was when he was in A+ and AA. So yes, I think it's entirely possible given his defensive ability and his potential with the bat, that he could end up with peak years better than Ryan Braun. The next few posts will undoubtedly tell me how crazy I am, but I believe the next few years will prove me right. Only time will tell. Still, I agree with most of you regarding TCO7's comments...or most of them.

I've literally covered this dozens of times in previous posts but here it is again. It doesn't matter who the player traded for is' date=' it's the idea that a short term solution is the correct or proper solution for what ails a team. We went from an organization with no MLB talent and stocked farm system to an organization with MLB and a barren farm system. The last 2 drafts have somewhat corrected that problem, but you can't continually trade away prospects for short term value and sustain anything. My problem with rental players is the short return on investment. If would have ever gotten to the point where we had a good MLB team with a hole here or there caused by injury and a stocked minor league system my tune would have changed. However all Melvin has done is continually band-aid the roster without actually addressing any holes long-term, well until we signed Ramirez to that backloaded albatross of a contract, but that wasn't a positive development from where I'm sitting. It's not about what the players we've traded have done, they had a specific value at the time they were traded. The majority of trade analysis you'll see on this forum is the player traded vs the player have performed like this, so we won the trade. It's not that simple, trading for Sabathia directly led to the crappy rotations in 2009 and 2010, the hole we had in the rotation 2008 still existed even with Gallardo coming back because we lost Sheets and Sabathia. It wasn't ever actually addressed, it was just temporarily patched. I would have rather bundled that prospect value from any number of trades into a trade for younger, long-term solutions rather than selling 2-4 prospects for a quick fixes here and there. The market in baseball has it's shifts and through that 2005-2009 time frame there were many teams chasing offense, over time the market has slowly shifted back towards pitching as teams have recognized how far the Rays and Giants went on basically just their pitching. I'd like the Brewers to be where the Rays and Rangers are, very good MLB teams with loaded farm systems. It's certainly possible to have it both ways and it's not prospect hoarding or whatever other negative term people have thrown around on this forum over the years, it's fundamentally sound organization building. I still think prospect for prospect deals are the best way to cheaply acquire young impact talent, but those deals have become few and far between, and they aren't in Melvin's wheelhouse anyway. In fact, most of the strategies I would like the organization to employ aren't in Melvin's wheelhouse, he's just not a good long-term planner, he doesn't trade for the type of talent I'd like to acquire, he doesn't seem to have any kind of affinity for prospect talent, and he's too willing to spend money on what I would consider to be the wrong types of players. What I mean is that his track record in FA is pretty abysmal outside of the contracts he signed with our homegrown talent. Looper, Davis, Gagne, Helms, Hall, McGehee, Clark, Suppan, Hoffman, and Hawkins all either stunk, got injured, or both. The only saving grace in that bunch was McGehee thinking he was better than he was and turning down the contract. I could probably even throw Saito in that bunch has only pitched about half the season and wasn't a very flexible reilever. The Cameron and Wolf signings were pretty decent, but the rest... yikes. From all those trades for rental players, outside of Sabathia (and it took some great fortune in 2008 anyway) which player pushed us into the post season? K-Rod's 29 innings were the difference last year? What value did Linebrink actually bring? Or Lopez? Where's any tangible long-term benefit to the organization as whole from any of the rental players including Sabathia that we've acquired. Sure those that only care about what happens to the team in the finite window of a current MLB season will like the move, but outside of that narrow scope, there's literally nothing tangible on the field. One could maybe argue some benefits such as renewed vigor from the fanbase, additional ticket sales, and so on, but those are concepts that are very difficult to adequately qualify for us without the actual numbers readily available. I working almost exclusively from depth of organizational talent perspective, rental player deals have netted us basically nothing, the draft picks haven't even worked out even with a good season of Morgan coming out of one. In truth we spent those assets to band-aid a problem only to have it come back around and continue to be a problem in the following seasons. Melvin's best trades have been the salary dump or change of scenery moves where he didn't have to give up much to acquire a piece and even then, like K-Rod's case, his contribution wasn't ever going to be enough to push us over the top. Lawrie for Marcum was an overpay in terms of talent if not in production, as was giving up all we did for only 2 years of Greinke if he's not resigned. How does it make sense to continually acquire CFs when we have greater needs elsewhere? Our competitive window isn't defined by the contract length of players on the MLB roster, it's defined by our depth of talent as an organization, and that's where the disconnect comes between me and those people I regularly debate with on this forum comes from. They tend to view ideas from a purely MLB perspective, sometimes from the perspective of a single MLB season, and I'm looking to build the deepest organization possible and don't care about taking a small step back at MLB in one season if it gives me a better chance to win for the following 3. There is no "all in" for me, I won't say ever, but certainly not since 2006, I've always been looking to acquire solutions that we'd control for at least 3 seasons, anything less is just a temporary patch.[/quote] Well, first of all, I don't read everyone of your posts, so forgive me that I haven't read previous rants on how everything the Brewers do is wrong. I mean...I've certainly read plenty. I've read how you knew how bad of a pick Jimmy Nelson was when you cited Jungman as another example of a terrible pick based on your analysis(which I'm not quite certain how many games it was that you scouted him). Anyway.... So you want to be like the Rangers(who can spend with just about anyone now) or the Rays who are the model franchise in all of MLB in terms of developing from within, but also have roughly half the money to spend that we do. Your criteria of who "pushed," us into the playoffs is an insincere one as it's not possible to answer. Did Morgan, one of those players you'er referring to "push," us into the 2nd round? You barely touched on my actual questions other than saying you'd rather have long term solutions rather than short term. I'm quite certain Melvin feels the same way, and on MLB2012 or whatever game there is, you can certainly do that, however long terms solutions cost a lot more money. You didn't like Jerry Hairston Jr. last year for almost nothing, or K-Rod, or Lopez who hit .300+ with us the first time he was here and was a very good addition, all of whom cost almost nothing. The vast majority of the players we've traded away have proven they wouldn't have made our farm system like the Rangers or the Rays. We've traded away exactly one elite prospect, and I stated initially I agreed with you. But this post didn't answer my question, it just went into a extraordinarily long rant about how you don't want to make short term trades, trading away middling prospects the vast majority of the time for players who fit a particular need. And really it was just complaining in general about the Brewers and their entire organization. And you're not really along in wanting a good Major League team, AND this great budding farm system, which as you stated has been remedied the last couple years to a great degree. So it was depleted in order to acquire two pitchers who have had a great deal of success and led to us winning 96 games and a playoff series last year for the first time since 1982, and put us in a position this year to be successful. Things obviously haven't worked out, partially due to injuries to our starting SS, 1B, 2 starting pitchers, as well as others. But I don't know how that means you make this absolute decision that you don't acquire short term solutions to problems. And by the way, I'm curious how you'd go about finding these long term solutions at these positions AND have a elite farm system? You want long term solutions, you're going to have to give up MORE of your farm system. So, what it comes down to is you're upset about the trades the Brewers have made, and you support your argument by asking which player along pushed us into the playoffs. You then go on to talk about how you want an elite farm system, yet ignore the fact that, again, the vast majority of the players we've traded away for the short term fixes have been players who would be virtually irrelevant to the team now. The players we have traded away who'd make a dent in our system now, Lawrie(whom I agreed with) wasn't a short term fix, it was two full years. Escobar, Odorizzi, Cain and Jeffress for Greinke. Both players we'll likely recoup some of the losses from. Not to mention we've recouped some of the losses from other players. So if you're going to admonish Melvin for "rentals," a reason other than, I want to be like the Rangers or Rays and we need long term fixes isn't exactly a valid answer IMO. It's just incredibly negative...which is a overwhelming trend I see. Hey, I'd love to have a great farm system and at the same time have long term solutions along the big league level, but I think given what he's started with, and what has likely been some meddling by the owner such as the Suppan signing and possibly the Ramirez signing, Melvin's done a pretty damn good job given his resources of doing both of what you're talking about. I think we've got a farm system that's rapidly ascending, and should get better with what's bound to be more players entering into it in the next couple years with Marcum, K-Rod, Greinke, and others leaving, presumably leaving behind at least a few prospects and or picks.

I posted no less than 5 minutes ago how excited I was for rookie ball to see how Arcia could perform stateside this year. At age 17, you're so far away, but still, his exceptional play at age 16 in the DSL last year was really encouraging. Rivera hopefully develops, but Arcia looks like the stronger candidate to become a star SS. Now getting to rookie ball at age 18(and who knows, if he performs well in instructional and plays well this winter, he could wind up in Wisconsin next year to open the season) obviously still gives you a LONG time to develop, but still...we need him to come along as quickly as his ability will allow. [sarcasm]Maybe the Brewers should just play the rest of the season with TWO second basemen and use an exaggerated shift at every level.[/sarcasm] Seems like anyone with the title of Shortstop this year is just cursed.

So looking at the big picture would I rather have Profar and a Hall type prospect or Castellanos and Banuelos/Atlanta pitcher? I'd probably take the second. Which would you rather take? Well, I think superstars win World Series. You can get to the playoffs with a solid lineup up and down the order, but the difference in the playoffs is having true superstar aces, and position players who can hit great pitching. A lot of guys can hit good pitching, but what separates the good one from the great ones to me is your ability to hit the best. I'm repeating myself here again, but getting that leadoff hitter, who BY THE WAY, is a switch hitter, who can carry a .400 OBP while playing GG Shortstop is so incredibly unique I can't think of one off the top of my head. Not to mention he's got the speed to steal 30-40 bases a year. You can fill in a lineup SO much easier when you can get one of the best leadoff hitters in the game and one of the best #3 hitters in the game and pencil them into the lineup everyday(throw in the D at Short..). For instance, Profar/Lucroy/Braun... Give me those three to hit 1-3 for the next 6 years, Gallardo to front a rotation with several guys who have the pure STUFF to be an ace.(which not to go on a tangent here, but it's annoying when I hear that Thornburg's "ceiling," is a #2/3 or the same with Bradley/Jungman. No, that's their likely ceiling. Their actual ceiling, when you throw in the mid to upper 90's, plus fastball with sink as Jungman has, and a sharp curve as he's developing and a good change, or a upper 90's fastball and a plus curve and change as Thornburg has, or Bradley's pure stuff, they've the ceiling of an ace). So no, I would not rather take that trade. I think the more you see of some of Atlanta's young pitchers, a little bit of the shine rubs off on them(and it's important which one obviously, Teheran is obviously the best). I think even Teheran and Castellanos wouldn't be as good as Profar and a pitcher as I described, a young, projectable, but lowly rated A ball pitcher. So I'd take one GREAT player and hope you en Sorry for long response. But there you go, I'd just take the superstars. You could continue that batting order for the long term and throw in Mat Gamel whom I'm still 100 pct on board with being our everyday 1st basemen and being a very good one at that, Taylor Green who I still like and think can man 3rd base to the tune of .270/.340/.470 and give you 20 HR's(I think you add 10-15 points for Gamel and 5 HR's). Gennett could even take that #2 spot in the order as he seems custom made for it. Logan Schafer...and of course, there's always the ability to trade a young pitcher for a very good position player. I see Profar as a player that would be the best leadoff hitter in the game overall and Castenellos as a very good player, but Profar I could see having 8 WAR peak years. I sincerely believe that. If you can play great D at short, you're already a valuable player. If you can get on base like Profar can, you're an elite perennial all-star type player. By the way, maybe Brooks Hall was a bad example for the type of pitcher I'm thinking of. I've just loved Hall since we drafted him. I'm really just thinking of a player perhaps a year removed from the Dominican league who throws in the mid to upper 90's with poor control and secondary pitches that are erratic, but are there and have great movement, but maybe is 19 years old and walks 6 per 9. You know, a guy who probably won't make it, but if he can figure it out, can turn into another Axford type? Anyway, sorry for all the pontificating and belaboring my point now. I suppose a simple NO would have been sufficient! One last thing...anyone not TOO disappointed in Greinke's outing tonight? Anyone here not mind if we're not going to be in it this year that maybe he has a bit of a inflated ERA to bring that price tag down? Of course that should probably be in blue, but I'd go back to him if he has another bad start or two and put the Cain deal on the table! Save this whole conversation and throw it in the "no longer relevant discussion," category now? Man...all this talk about superstar SS's makes me yearn for the rookie leagues to start so I can follow Arcia!

Well, I don't see how that applies to me as I never argued, nor do I think anyone on this entire board suggested that Greinke's trade value should be compared in any way, shape or form to that of Marcum or K-Rod. I don't recall you making that point, but it's one that's pretty much assumed. And when you say you aim high for Greinke, you can't REALLY aim higher than Profar. Again, he's pretty much the consensus #2 rated prospect in baseball behind Bundy who had given up 5 hits, 2 BB's with 40 K's in 30 IP for a 0.00 ERA and a .223 WHIP as a 19 year old kid. I guess the more we talk about it, I'm that much more confused. If we're on the same page about Greinke for Profar, then your real argument is K-Rod's value is what I'm underrating because I suggested that if the Rangers needed something to sweeten the deal we could add K-Rod and pay some of his salary for Profar, OR if we had to, make it Greinke and Axford for Profar and a power arm from A ball from the Rangers. A young prospect who's ranked low, but has upside. Perhaps a Brooks Hall type prospect. As great as Greinke is, we are talking about 4 months of him in return for the top position prospect in the game. I don't see how I am undervaluing Greinke or overvaluing Profar. Maybe I'm undervaluing Axford. Frankly, I'm looking at him and saying, if we could get a guy like Profar, with the total rebuilding project underway, is it worth it to trade Axford to get Profar, and a Brooks Hall type prospect. I think Axford's value is at it's height. He's striking out 15.3 per 9, had a run of 50 straight saves, but how important is a closer to a 70 win team? And bottom line...I just think Profar is so good that half a year of Greinke(who again, I still think with him the next half decade we're a WS contender year in and year out) and EVEN Axford is well worth it. Lets look at it this way. Profar projects to be a better player than Starlin Castro. Where Castro might not stay at SS and probably won't be a very good defender over there, Profar looks to be a Gold Glove caliber SS. Where Castro is a hacker(not in a bad way when you hit well over .300) Profar projects to hit .300, but also carry an OBP near .400. Now if you could get a Shortstop BETTER than Starlin Castro who could leadoff with a .400 OBP, GG defender..etc..etc...how far do you think that would go with Gallardo, Braun, Lucroy, Gamel, Green, Weeks and a farm system just chalk full of pitching prospects. Now is giving up Axford to get a player like that AND a young projectable though not highly rated arm in return? I had previously suggested Martin Perez, but as valuable as Profar is, I don't think that's likely. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. But I'll ask this, would YOU be alright with Perez+Profar for Axford+Greinke? Which again I think is all moot because the Rangers aren't likely to trade him after his early performance in AA ball. One more question, do you have Axford pegged as a guy that you want to keep in our little rebuilding process, or a player that we should be looking to trade(*this of course is all under the premise we do decide to sell and rebuild)? Or are you just more comfortable trading Greinke for a guy like Castenallos and Axford for another prospect? I'll be honest, I'd be willing to trade away any two big leaguers on our roster right now save for Lucroy, Braun and Gallardo for Profar and a young arm. Hart, Marcum....you wanted quality over quantity, I think Profar is the epitome of that. I'll take two superstars and work to build around them than the 3-4 everyday players you cited in a recent post. The Indians got 3-4 prospects for Sabathia. I'm guessing they'd have rather gotten one "can't miss," superstar prospect than 3-4, and while nobody truly is can't miss, Profar is about as close to it as you can get in all the minors right now. Bundy could get hurt, Machado hasn't really put up the big numbers yet.... And on top of that, I believe when next years prospect rankings come out, if we had a guy like Profar, the Brewers farm system would rank as one of the top 5-6 in all of baseball. We'd likely have the #1 or #2 prospect at SS, I think Thornburg cracks the top 25, Nelson, Peralta, Bradley and Jungman would all be in the top 100 as well. That's without anyone else we'd acquire via trade, and without the 3 picks we have in the upcoming draft. AND I think we're going to see some BIG numbers put up by our rookie league teams as we bring some of our Dominican players stateside. And imagine if a guy like Gallo did fall to us as many mocks have? A future IF of Gamel at 1st, Weeks/Gennett at 2nd, Profar at 3rd and Gallo at 3rd with Lucroy behind the dish is a pretty nice looking IF. Edit- In any event, I enjoy the debate regardless of the disagreements. That's kinda the whole point of these boards to me. To have these back and forths and either convince someone to see it your way, or agree to disagree and wait and see what happens.

They have 3B Matt Dominguez in AAA who could be available since he's now blocked by Hanley Ramirez. The problem with that is we also have a Ramirez at 3B, so trading for a MLB-ready 3B may not be wise. Their top prospect is Christian Yelich (Baseball America #41), who is far too much to hope for for one of our CFs, but maybe a deal for Hart if they thought Coughlin or Stanton could hold CF for a while. I don't think that's probably an option as he's a year or two away, and I don't see us trading 1.5 years of Hart for someone who won't be on the Brewers for a couple of years. Not that it would be a bad deal for us, just that I don't see Melvin doing it. They have a couple of good SP in A ball, but so do we, so that's probably not our first item on the "needs list." However, if Morgan could bring back 2011 first rounder Jose Fernandez, then go for it. Maybe a realistic option for Morgan would be someone like Marcell Ozuna in high-A. Here's MLB.com's report: "When Ozuna is healthy and locked in, he has all the tools to be a prototypical right fielder. He has a ton of raw power to tap into, and adjustments he made at the plate should allow him to do that more consistently. He has a plus arm from the outfield and his above-average speed gives him good range defensively as well as the ability to steal bases. He shook off a terrible first half of 2011 with a terrific second half, one that the Marlins hope carries over in 2012." He's 22 and MLB.com projects him to be MLB ready in 2014. I don't really like Dominguez. He's never really produced in the minors. If you stack him up next to Green, I'd rather have Green anyway. And with Aram..which you pointed out(though you could always move one to 1st) he doesn't seem to be a great target. Ozuna however sounds like a great potential target. He's EXACTLY what we're lacking. A high ceiling type power bat. He's hit 22 and 23 HR's the last two years in the minors and has 8 already in the FSL which is impressive. 21 years old, so not some elite prospect at his age... But I think the Brewers need to target players in this mold. It's amazing to me how we could trade away players who certainly didn't qualify as superstars for guys like Burnitz, Sexson, Seitzer going back further as well as others. It'd be nice to be able to add a couple guys we could at least hold out hope could end up being 30 HR guys like Ozuna. And Morgan seems to be cooperating. He's starting to hit and put it together again. Of course....how is he going to fit in the Florida Marlins clubhouse? Volstad is gone, but still....that may be interesting. At least pre-trade. After they were to trade for him, I think they'd love him like we all do.... He's almost like Driver to me. Not to be disrespectful to Driver, I just mean a very likeable guy who we just don't really have space for, and who can still be productive, but a guy who is also blocking younger talent. Now Driver's a Packer legend and Morgan is in his 2nd year in Milwaukee, though he's certainly going to be remembered for a long time, not only for his personality which is likeable, but his game winning single. But it does seem like it's time to move on.

This discussion could go in 20 different directions, but right now, fielding a competitive team year in and year out, we have momentum and are drawing well over 3 in great years and 2.7 or so in a couple down years. We reportedly made more money last year spending about 95 million than we've made in a long time(twice as much according to Forbes) and this year again, we have a new TV deal kicking in adding 20 million in revenues and should have another record breaking year in ticket revenues since we're significantly ahead of last years pace(4.5 K per game, though that should even out when school lets out as we had great attendance last year) and we're making more money per ticket. So I do believe that we can spend 115 million dollars and not be near the red if we can keep Greinke and stay competitive. But again, if we spend 115 and instead of spending 22-23 million on Greinke, we spend 14 million or so on Marcum and then like I said earlier, try and sign a guy like JDLR for 2/18 or some other inflated contract and they have injuries issues, or whatever, we're just not competitive, the attendance will dwindle and we will have to either cut salary or our salary won't rise relative to average inflation. That's the worst case scenario. Which again is why I'm for just blowing the whole thing up sans Braun, Luc, and Yo(perhaps even extending the latter for 3 at 45 right now if possible with a up front bonus to make it more enticing). My biggest fear is just trying to hold on though. Going through the Macha type years and having them become the norm while spending well over 100 million. I don't KNOW if it'll happen in Milwaukee, but in Cleveland when they had a good baseball team, they drew fans. Christ, didn't they sell out some incredible amount of games in a row? Like 500? I don't know, just throwing that out there, I thought it was a VERY long streak. But after they went through a rebuild and got good again, the fans didn't really come back. I suppose you also have to consider that possibility. You have momentum right now with fan support. Which...again is why I don't think we have that firesale.

Yeah, but I wish we were trying to replace "even decent," right now. At the moment at 2nd and SS we're trying to replace, "incredibly awful." Not to mention, he did play well for Boston, played well for the O's for a few games.... I'm not trying to pump him up, that's fairly hard to do. I'm simply trying to compare him to the useless players we have, ESPECIALLY if Izturis is injured and has to go on the DL. What in the world are we going to do then? Sign Craig Counsell? I don't think at that point that would even be a joke.

Anyway, if the Rangers are of the same belief that Law seems to be...and putting aside any opinions of Law, I find it hard to argue with his assessment, the next question is, would you be willing to trade Greinke for Andrus? I don't really have an answer for that one. He'd be entering his arbitration years, he'd have only 3 years left after this year, and after dreaming of having a SS who could win a GG and be a .400 OBP leadoff hitter, Andrus numbers look a little disappointing, but he's clearly one of the better SS's in the game and is just 23 years old. Of course the Rangers would have to feel comfortable with Profar at the big league level and trading away your starting SS after losing the last two WS's and being arguably the best team in baseball is...pretty unlikely, even with a great young prospect.

Well if the updated top 25 prospect rankings are to be believed, you won't have to worry about trading for Profar as it's unrealistic anyway. Like you, I'm not going to go back over all your points, I'll just say again, you're the one who said you wanted quality over quantity and then said you'd rather trade for lesser prospects so you could get 3-4 prospects back. From Keith Law where he has Profar ranked as the #2 overall prospect behind Bundy(which surprised me as I thought he'd keep Machado there, but which I also agree with. Bundy is obviously so far ahead of anyone currently in the minors though, #2 is incredibly impressive. It's hard to rank a guy much lower than this when he has front-line tools and has failed to reach base in just two games this year, the last one on April 7. His combination of OBP, speed and defense will push Elvis Andrus out of the way -- talk of moving Profar to accommodate Andrus underestimates just how good Profar is going to be. And I'm not underestimating Greinke's value or his trade value. He could be the difference for a number of teams in a World Series win. I think you're overestimating K-Rod who, when speaking in terms of prospects like Profar DOES become reduced to a "throw in," IMO. Again, a speedy GG caliber SS who gets on base at an incredibly impressive clip and projects to be a potential .400 OBP guy in the big leagues. IF HE actually does that, he'd be the most valuable player on our team. Edit-Apologies for the comment on the top 11 pick. You are right on that. But they could also end up with a 2nd round pick. EITHER way, I don't think the value of whatever picks you're going to get for Greinke+whatever you may get for K-Rod while having to eat some of his contract is going to be equal to the value of Profar. I also apologize if you're taking my argument the wrong way. You're certainly entitled to your opinion...I'm not trying to be over the top here which I may have been. I just feel pretty adamant that as GREAT as Greinke is, and again, I was one of the few who didn't love the Sabathia trade as I felt we could have gotten Greinke for less and had a much bigger window to compete at the time(still feel that way, though the big guy was amazing...but for just 19 starts). Greinke to me is Greg Maddux with better velocity when he's on. He's absolutely amazing to watch. True baseball fans love watching a pitcher like Greinke carving up hitters by hitting the corners and then breaking off one of those NASTY sliders in a 1-0 game vs a Roy Halladay type pitcher more than any other type of game. So I feel like I'm not underestimating Greinke. Again, he's just incredible to watch and I would rather risk it and spend 140 to sign him for 6 years than even trade for Profar and get him for 6 years cheap. BUT if we have to trade him...I guess I think Profar is the "next guy," in line behind the big three in Bryce Harper, Trout and Lawrie of young guys who is going to be a superstar position player. A core player that you could pair with Braun and know you have two legit superstars year in and year out. If I've come off as a (fill in the blank) I apologize. I also haven't argued AGAINST Castellanos, but the ironic part is that you think I'm underestimating Greinke's value, I don't think Ccastellanos is good enough for Zach. And I don't think the Yankees will consider him with his history at Yankee stadium. Right or wrong, the times they've seen him, he's been awful. I think they'll go after Hamels most likely.

Brett Lawrie's OPS+ right now is 84, that is below replacement level. His career OPS+ is at 117. You cannot really point to a 1/4 of a season as statistical proof of anything which means that this year for Lawrie doesn't prove much either....yet. However we can look at the half a season of Lawrie's MLB career and see that as nothing close to Ryan Braun's talent and production That said, Braun has never put up a quarter of a season anywhere close to what Lawrie has done this year. 3 HR's in 40 games? A .312 OBP? Those are the kind of numbers Braun never puts up for a 40 game period The only response to that is Lawrie is still young and that may be the case As to their Minor League Stats: Lawrie put up those AAA numbers in a bandbox in Vegas where balls fly out at ridiculous paces. Lawrie's AA stats at Huntsville were worse than Braun's, a .856 OPS to a .797 OPS (and yes Lawrie was younger). We'll see how Lawrie develops, or doesn't. I think Braun is an elite hitter and Lawrie just...isn't Braun's career slugging % is 12th All-Time right now. He is just below Rogers Hornsby and Joe DiMaggio and ahead of Mays, Musial & Mantle. And Braun's Slugging % this season of .630 is an improvement over his career average! Do you really believe Lawrie has that type of potential? I don't Wasn't it Sickel who stated that Lawrie has the potential upside of Hornsby? And you just seem to gloss over the age difference. Lawrie's at the big league level while Braun was still in HiA and AA ball. That's....pretty significant. And yes, I do think he has that upside. As do the several scouts who have compared him to Bryce Harper...but more proven. I see a lot of denial about Lawrie from Brewers fans IMO because it's a lot easier trade to swallow if he doesn't end up being the savant that most everyone expects him to be at this point. Anyway, I listed SEVERAL reasons as to why I believe there are indicators that Lawrie will be on Braun's level offensively and you tried rather hard to make excuses. So Lawrie played at a offensive park in AAA. He did it at the same age Braun was in college. From Stark: Let me end with your ranking of Ryan Braun historically. You're ranking him among historical greats who played through their down years and Braun's sitting in his prime which lacks in sincerity IMO. Or however you'd like to articulate it. And we can't argue small sample sizes continually and say, "well look at what Lawrie(again, 22, the age Braun was in A ball)is doing compared to Braun's .630 SLG(in the midst of his prime year and a quarter of a season in). Bottom line, I expect Lawrie's WAR and Braun's WAR to be at least equal through each players prime year and I think it's very likely Lawrie's is higher. And I say that appreciating and not needing an education on how great Braun is.

And Jim Thome was once a regular 40 HR threat. So what? I don't care about career numbers. Career numbers are far to often thrown into the equation in order to try and ignore recent trends and make a self serving argument. Estrada made fundamental changes last year and in his time with the Brewers, he has a 4.20 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP first of all. Bush in the same time has been just awful. In his last three years in the big leagues, he's put up a 5.33 ERA and a 1.50 Whip. Second, where are you getting this "expecting him to be anything more than a 4/5 pitcher...etc..etc..." stuff is out of nowhere. Where did I say anything to that affect? And I'll end this silly conversation with "fastball velocity doesn't matter," when talking about a fastball/curveball pitcher who's been terrible as of late when we have a plethora of far better options.

Anyway, bottom line, I doubt the Rangers would even be willing to give up a guy like Profar for Greinke and K-Rod(taking on about 10 million at least) and may well not even be willing to give up Profar and a projectable lower level arm for Greinke and Axford anyway, so this discussion is probably moot. I just think it's crazy to expect MORE out of Greinke and K-rod than Profar or Machado(I put more emphasis on Profar as he's a much better defender and certain to stick at SS and a much more likely trading partner, but they're about equal value options at this point).

I'm sorry but how could you possibly know this? You are literally suggesting that he will only sign with one of the three best teams in baseball. We could end up with the 11th pick or the 16th pick just as easily as we could end up with the 30th pick. Boston may go after him. NY. LAA. Texas. Detroit. Washington. Miami. It's way too soon to proclaim that he'll end up with the best team in baseball, thus getting us the 30th pick. No, you could not end up with the 11th pick. You can only end up with a pick in the 2nd half of the first round. Ie, the top 15 teams in the standings. You COULD also end up getting a supplemental 1st round pick for him, and a 2nd rounder..... I can't even begin to articulate how much more valuable Profar would be to the Brewers than that. You're talking about a potential superstar SS. And the reason I suggested 28th was simply going off last year, and because the teams that end up signing the big name Free Agents, TEND to be the teams that have the most money and finish higher in the standings. But you're right. We could end up with a pick from 16-30 and a supplemental 1st round pick. I don't know how you even begin to compare that to a guy like Profar. I'm not saying that. I'm just saying that I don't want to give him away for a mid ceiling prospect because at the very least we'll get two draft picks in return. I didn't call Profar a mid ceiling prospect. You didn't specifically SAY that...however you said that when we were talking about Profar...so it's kinda hard not to jump to that conclusion. When one person is talking about trading for the two guys with probably the highest ceilings in the minor league system(Machado and Profar) at the position we have the biggest need for and you say, "I don't want to trade for mid ceiling guys," what are we to think? Setting aside the fact that obviously nobody's suggesting we trade Greinke for a mid level or a mid ceiling prospect. You're basing this off of a quarter of a season. By that reasoning I could say that John Axford is no longer dominating. Teams have a tendency to overpay for pitching at the deadline. If K-Rod can start pitching like he usually does he may fetch a decent return. Don't base his trade value off of what we paid for him. The Mets were pretty desperate to get rid of him. No we're not going to get a #1 pitching prospect back in return. But that doesn't mean we won't necessarily be able to get someone who profiles as an everyday player. Right now someone who profiles as an every day player would be a pretty nice addition to our system. Axford's striking out 15.3 per 9 innings and still hitting 97. K-Rod is striking out 8.4. The price to "throw him in," with Greinke, if that's what it took to get Profar would be a deal I think the Brewers would be absolutely thrilled with and a trade that just about every scout, expert, anyone would say is a huge win for the Brewers. I mean, YOU'RE THE ONE talking about "quality over quantity," yet you're willing to trade K-Rod for a mid level prospect rather than throw him into a trade for probably the best possible prospect in the minor leagues for the Milwaukee Brewers right now, and someone who's probably not even realistic to acquire...and you're arguing against it. I'm still trying to figure out why. Finally, I'm searching for where I said last years trade of K-Rod had anything whatsoever to do with his trade value this season. That's not at all what I said. I said you need to aim for high ceiling prospects LIKE Profar and not settle for mid ceiling prospects by trading Greinke just for the sake of trading him. That's where the whole draft pick compensation thing comes in. Don't trade him for mid ceiling prospects when you may just as easily get two mid to high ceiling prospects back in the draft. Profar is exactly the type of player you aim for. But that doesn't mean you give away the farm for him. I mean....what is too much? You say you'd give them Greinke and Axford. Would you throw in Hart too? Weeks? Would you trade all of our trading chips for one prospect? I'm just at a loss as to how you're jumping from what I actually said to what was said. First of all, you're changing your initial argument now. You specifically said in the discussion for Profar while arguing against the suggestion of trading Greinke AND K-Rod to get him that you want high ceiling players. If you were suggesting that Profar IS the type of prospect you want, I didn't really understand how you articulated that. I just think that you are either seriously underestimating Greinke or seriously overestimating Profar. You talk about him like he is the second coming of Mickey Mantle. And don't get me wrong, I'd LOVE Profar in a Milwaukee uniform. But with how many holes we have and how little depth, it's possible that three or four everyday players may be a better return than one all star caliber player. Again, I don't even know how to respond to this. Almost half my posts on this board have been about how important I think Greinke is, how I think signing him is the most important signing or move the Brewers will have made since they trade for Fingers/Simmons/Vook and most likely the most important signing of anyone they'll sign in the next decade most likely. So my underestimating Greinke is just utterly ridiculous. And the Mantle comment...I don't even know where to begin. I think the problem lies with you initially arguing against trading for him. The Mantle comment is so ridiculous I don't think it even warrants a response. I've explained what he is and what scouts view his ceiling and all it takes is a cursory glance to see how well he's playing at such an extraordinarily young age for the level he's playing in. A 18 year old who hits over .300/.390 at HiA and is again dominating as a 19 year old at AA speaks for itself. It doesn't need any ridiculous hyperbole like bringing up Mickey Mantle. Not to mention, you LITERALLY said that you'd rather get QUALITY over QUANTITY. How is "3-4 everyday prospects," better than arguably the top prospect in all the minors who dominating AA right now at 19 years old and looks like a GG Shortstop. You're completely 100 pct contradicting what you've previously said on this topic. I mean, that was the quickest 180 I've ever seen. Maybe I'd consider the Greinke and KRod deal, but trading both Greinke AND Axford for him? I'd rather take my chances with what I could get for each other individually then trading two all star caliber players, one of who is under control for a few more years, for one prospect. You clearly didn't read my post very clearly, but lets start here. 1st of all, as great as Greinke is, and I think if he were to re-sign, he could easily end up being the best pitcher the Brewers have ever had, his value for a team that presumably would be out of it and the ensuing comp picks doesn't even APPROACH the value of a elite Shortstop prospect like Profar. 2nd, if you read a little closer, I said Profar, AND a power arm from LowA ball. So not only is it NOT for one player, but it'd be for two players, one of which would be a SS with Gold Glove potential who's extremely young for his age, yet still dominating. That's a LOT more valuable to a rebuilding team than a closer. I think you did a little more reading on Profar after the comment about not wanting low ceiling prospects as Profar is about as far away from a low ceiling prospect as you can possibly get in the minors right now. That, your misunderstanding of draft compensation(ie, we can't get the #11 pick) and K-Rod's value as a throw in for the Rangers who'd be trading a potential superstar for half a season of Greinke, not to mention your complete 180 on wanting quality over quantity(your comment about all the sudden preferring 3-4 everyday players vs one superstar directly contradicts that, as does your suggestion for what we could get for K-Rod). And there IS a reason we got K-Rod so cheap last year. The Mets had 28 other teams to trade him to, yet gave him away to us. So it was a lot more than the Mets just wanting to trade him. Teams aren't giving up good pitching prospects for half a year of a SU man.

I think when you have a top prospect who can throw in the upper 90's and sit in the mid to lower 90's, can strike guys out and get Ground balls, and he's your top prospect and on the 40 man, he's the guy you call up, even if he's struggled in his last start against a VERY good minor league lineup for what it's worth.

I'm alright with the changes as I don't trust Melvin not to buy a player every year, just say no to rental players. I don't think Melvin's really done too bad with rentals. Which rental do you take issue with? K-Rod last year was brilliant. CC obviously. Linebrink didn't work out, but we lost a very good loogy who's been a little up and down, but very good when used as a loogy, but the main guy in that deal was traded at the perfect time(Inman), at the height of his value, and at the time, we were competing and Linebrink looked to solidify a team that was leading the division and was lacking a good SU man. Didn't work out great either way, but we did get comp picks. And I don't put it on Melvin they didn't pan out(though they did lead to Morgan IIRC). We traded for Lopez twice, once it worked out great and we gave up a player who's done nothing. That's when Weeks got hurt. And the last time we took a flier on him and again gave up a player with very little value. Who am I missing? Where has Melvin really dropped the ball on mid-season rentals? He twice gave up top prospects, one time that top prospect was, as many suspected a low ceiling guy who still hasn't done anything 4 years later, and the other was for a guy who pitched on 3 days rest several times, got us into the playoffs and again, was for guys who haven't had a significant impact on the teams they've been traded to. Marcum wasn't a rental, otherwise I'd cite that as a terrible trade, but it was for 2 years and not mid-season. So I don't understand the argument you're making.