HiAndTight

I actually got into a debate over Strausburg and Braun SS's rookie year. Who would you rather have long term. I chose Braun, and I'd take him every time. Just the injury risk factor. I'd trade Braun for Tulo. I wouldn't trade Braun for Kemp because despite the fact that I think Kemp is better, Cabrera I think is a guy who could get fat, and not "Prince Fat," and get sloppy fat and not be the player Braun will be. Take contract into account, and unless I can get Harper to sign a Braun like deal right now(his agent is Boras) forget that. Same with Trout...though I'd have to think about it. I'd trade Braun for Profar and Yu Darvish as I think he's a long term dominant pitcher, but again, that's kinda ridiculous. So Tulo or bust, and since Tulo is to the Rockies what Braun is to the Brewers, I don't think you could find a deal that would work.

What I don't get though is how can you call his fastball a plus plus pitch and also call it straight? If it does turn out to be a legit plus plus pitch, I've seen a lot of closers do really well with 1 great pitch and just a "show me" off speed offering. Because he can throw it 103 MPH? And he does have that second pitch, a slider. My guess is the Brewers will work on him with that, along with adding the inevitable changeup. If he had any change, I can't imagine how much better he might look. A 98-103 fastball and a 90 MPH change should be pretty dangerous if it can again, just be average. Plus, we have no idea what type of coaching he got, or what type of potential is still left to add to that slider. Sounds like Chapman. Lets see if we can get better results. But 100 MPH is 100 MPH. ANY other pitch to change speeds would be huge.

No offense TLB, but I've never understood how people can claim they didn't take BPA since A-We won't know for 4-5 years who that is, and B-We have no idea who the BREWERS believe those players to be. So I don't understand the shot at Sied and company whatsoever. Especially since you WERE clamoring for Bats early in this draft.

Which would assume that literally every closer I've ever heard has just flat out lied, making liars of Axford, Mo, and just about every other closer in the game. It also would suggest that we created adreneline out of thin air as they're is certainly more pressure coming into a game when it's yours to win(finish off a win) or lose. This is another area by which I don't believe, as much as people want to try, you can't just punch in numbers and say, "see, this guy should be your closer." David Robertson was unhittable last year. Didn't exactly have a glowing start to his replacement of Mo, yet Soriano who struggled as a SU man last year and became the 7th inning guy looks dominant again. And while I don't have the numbers, everyone's seen it happen. You bring in a closer to get him some work with a 4-5 run lead and he's not nearly as sharp. Some DO have the mentality, some don't. The value in a closers lies with how good of a team you have. Obviously Rivera is great and very valuable. Is Brett Meyers that important in Houston? So it's kinda relative.

I don't think this is any more a legitimate issue for the Brewers than most other teams. I just think we harp on it a bit more on here. How many players when reading their scouting report says, "may have to move as he fills out," or "may not have the defense to stay behind the plate, but bat will play at a corner position." I think Brewers fans get way too worked up because they put way too much into the position next to the players name. And that's what some sight has them at. Not the Brewers. The Brewers didn't have Matt LaPorta at 1st. I'll be 90 pct of current position players started their career at SS in HS, and the ones that moved likely played at some of the elite baseball programs from around the country.

I know you haven't been a believer in Dunn as he'll age, & I can't say I think he's not going to fall off a cliff at some point. But I think the question about him is interesting, since 500 HR has really been a benchmark. Being a believer in how he'll age is besides the point. The fact is that Ender's wrong. His HR's, the stat in question here, have remained extremely consistent, as has his OPS and everything else I pointed out. Though he profiles as the type of guy who's BA might drop, but who should be able to hit with more than enough power to get to 500 when he's still only 32.

Yeah, it's certainly an interesting discussion -- I love threads like these. The "is 500 HRs an automatic Hall(of Fame) pass?" question's particularly interesting. And it'll be fun to see how many HRs Dunn can chase down before he has to hang 'em up. Like you noted ('The' Dew Deck shot, because, yeah... I think everyone remembers that shot), he's not exactly lacking for power. [sarcasm]Well, you're OBVIOUSLY clueless....[/sarcasm] Seriously though, I don't think he's a all-time great, which is what the HOF should be IMO. But it's undeniable that on the pace he's one(which again has been one of the most consistent HR hitting paces of any hitter of all time with the 46/40/40/40/40/38/38/11/(this year, already 17). But the point of this thread was DOES he get in(I of course also asked if anyone thought he SHOULD get in if he continues at a decreased past over the next 7-8 years. Which again, if he just averages 25 HR's a year, a very conservative number, he'll be pushing for 600), MORE SO than SHOULD he get in. Again, I've looked for and have failed to find a single player without the dark cloud of PED's hanging over their head who haven't made it having hit 500, much less 550 or 600.

Wow. That might be the most pretentious, arrogant comment I've read on here. Clueless fans? Because we're speculating if he hits 500-550 or 600 HR's, all WELL within his reach if that "magic number," still gets you into the HOF? And you insult EVERYONE who doesn't agree with you in one swift comment? Name one player eligible who hasn't been directly related, to PED's who HASN'T qualified for the HOF after hitting 500 HR's? And yes, ALL of his stats have declined over the last few years(one year in reality with regard to the HR's which is the at the heart of this thread). He hit 46 HR's, then 40 for 4 straight years, then 38 for two years. That's 7 years. LAST YEAR he had a terrible year, and now this year, he's back, has 17 HR's(on pace for 51) and an OPS of .929. He's also leading the league in walks, has a .375 OBP, and again, is on pace for 52 HR's this year. By the way, 5 years ago, he put up a line of; .236/.386/.513 with an .898 OPS OPS+ of 131 He hit 40 HR's and had 100 RBI's. THIS YEAR he's putting up a line of; .226/.375/.554 OPS of .929 with an OPS of 147(the HIGHEST of his career) And on pace for 52 HR's and 116 RBI's. So yeah...I can ABSOLUTELY see why you'd say something as absolutely ridiculous as; And in fact, going back the last 5 years he has hit; 40,38,38,11(this year on pace again for 52). If you go back another year it's 40/40/38/38/11 OPS lines of; .898/.928/.892/.569/.929 So the guy has been...amazingly consistent sans 2011, and has bounced back in a BIG way this year. Don't want to upset the "Ender army," but who exactly are the clueless fans now? So...in reality, his numbers slipped ONE year and his HR and OPS numbers have been remarkably similar, including this year in which he's on pace to set career highs.

I've been curious about Thomas Keeling. He had big time upside coming out of Okie State but had terrible control. IIRC he was throwing in the upper 90's and had the potential for a nasty slider. Where's he sitting now? Any chance he could still develop into a future SU/CL type?

I think this is more of a discussion for your backup catcher IMO and one that impacts the same two players who are our catchers right now. I'd rather have MM catching the majority of the games as he's so good out there defensively that it allows Grienke and Yo to feel more comfortable bouncing one up there than if you had Kottaras who is just atrocious at blocking the balls in the dirt. I do wonder just kinda out of nowhere if Lucroy is capable of playing 2nd base for example? If he proves to truly be a guy who can hit .300 or higher, that may be an option down the road(not this year or next, just at some point).

To me, it's simple. 1st-Pitchers who throw softer I don't believe are putting less stress on their arms. Not when we're talking about Greinke throwing 93 and Marcum throwing 88. Marcum has a high effort delivery, Greinke doesn't seem to have one. Either way, they're both maxing out their velocity(or close to it, I'm sure each could throw a little harder if they REALLY wanted to). 2nd-The harder you throw, the more you can get away with. If you throw 92 MPH, but leave one over the plate you have a better chance of that ball not getting hammered than if you throw 88. 3rd-As pitchers lose velocity, obviously their fastballs and their off-speed pitches don't have the the same difference in speeds. That's going to impact the soft tossers more. Add to that Marcum has proven to be more of a injury risk thus far, and I think it's safe to say Greinke's the safer bet moving forward by a wide margin.

How are we in any way similar to the Royals and their "perpetual rebuilding," mode? We're the exact antithesis, even if fans on here would like us to step back and rebuild, that seems to be the exact opposite of what we're going to do, a sentiment that was only solidified when Mark Attanasio said he's more likely to look to add pieces to this team. On top of that, we're in FAR-FAR better financial shape than KC is. I also don't know how you can say with such a sense of certainty that "He IS going to go big market." He MIGHT, but that pretty much contradicts everything we know about him as a person. Another thing I'd like to know is how you come to the conclusion that Greinke felt "burned," by KC from his last contract? They had lost 100 games 3 of the previous 5 years and in the two years they didn't lose 100 games, they lost 96. Their best season was when they won 75 games. So I'm at a loss as to how he could have gotten burned by them when he'd been there the entire time. Greinke's shown a complete willingness to re-sign with us. The issue hasn't been the fact that he felt "burned," by the Royals, or that he wants to go to a big market, it's that we're not offering enough money and years. That seems to be the extent of it. How else do you explain the reports that talks broke down after Cain signed his contract, and that the Brewers and Close have had professional negotiations, but have simply been too far apart thus far? I completely agree. I believe our future lies within our ability or lackthereof to sign Greinke. I'd rather overpay for one dominant ace than play with fire with a guy like Marcum. We have both money coming off our payroll and a lot of money coming into our system. Greinke's making 13.5 right now. Even if he gets 23 million a year, you basically just let Wolf walk and replace him with Fiers in the short term and then start to add guys like Thornburg...etc..etc..etc.. I feel extremely comfortable that Greinke from ages 29-35 is going to be an extremely valuable pitcher well worth 6/140. AND I agree, short of a major injury, he is a guy you could trade in a couple years with inflation if you absolutely had to. Plus, I think big market teams may be a big hesitant to sign him to a similar contract given his anxiety issues. Our best case scenario is that both Hamels and Shields hit the FA market. I'll take Greinke over either, but I think that with their playoff histories and recent histories, those two may well be the top2 pitchers on the market..and lets not forget, guys like Ryan Dempster, Ervin Santana, Edwin Jackson, Kyle Lohse, Gavin Floyd, Annibal Sanchez(having a great year, 11.3 K/9 and ERA in mid 2's), Brandon McCarthy(4.9 WAR last year), Jake Peavy(dominating again).... I think we MIGHT find that teams are willing to take a flier on Peavy for 2/3 years at 13 million or so and hope he stays healthy, or an Anibal Sanchez who's always had ace like stuff, or any number of these guys. BIG money will be thrown around, don't get me wrong, but we just might not be priced out of Greinke. I certainly wouldn't guarantee it at this point.

I actually completely agree that when you dig a little deeper the Killebrew vs Dunn argument kinda falls apart. Which, AGAIN, was the reason I asked the questions in two parts. Because I don't think MOST baseball writers look at some of the most advanced metrics like OPS+ to evaluate a player. I think there are still plenty who use counting stats, and there is no bigger "counting stat," than HR's. When Killebrew played, he played in almost a dead ball era and in much smaller ball parks. I do wonder what he'd have done had he played in Cincy for so many years. At the same time I remember Dunn putting one up in the friggin Dew deck vs the Brewers. The Polo grounds to dead center wouldn't have held that one IMO(regardless of what the official distance was). But there is a reason why Don Sutton is in the HOF with an ERA+ of 108 and Bert Blyleven had to wait an additional 10+years than Sutton. Or why Tim Raines isn't in the HOF despite being probably the 2nd best leadoff hitter of the last 60-70 years behind Ricky. But he came up short of those 3,000 hits. I'm sure he could have easily gotten those 3,000 hits had he not walked at a 15 pct clip at times in his career, but with 800+ stolen bases and with a nearly 85 pct success rate. So we're talking about what makes sense based on the writers and what makes sense based on YOUR opinion, realize the two will likely diverge. That's not to say there aren't writers who's opinions are coming along, but you still see BA overvalued, OBP undervalued, wins overvalued, etc..etc.. One last thing on this real quickly. Someone mentioned Jim Thome being a lock since he got to 600. Now Thome was a significantly better offensive player, HOWEVER, he finished his age 32 season with 381 HR's. Dunn is on pace to finish HIS age 32 season with 415 HR's based on his current pace, and should at least crack 400 by the end of this season.

What do you mean exactly? Old player batting skills are typically walks and power; skills that have kept old guys in the league for a long time. It's the young players who rely on speed that have to develop "old player skills' to stick around into their mid to late 30's. Dunn had them when he was a rookie. Sure, Dunn's production is going to fall off and he'll be a DH platoon guy soon but I see him in the league for another 5 years after this. You have to think he has well over a 50% chance of hitting at least 500 HRs. My thoughts exactly. I could take it a step further and say that I think he can play for even longer. 5 years would put him at 37. I could see him being similar to a Jim Thome type player. Bouncing around to teams who are good, but need to fill the DH role. Possibly a team like Houston where I believe he's from Houston. So for a guy like the Big Donkey....a guy who I could see at age 38, 39, 40..etc...being a .225-.240 hitter with a .340 OBP and still hitting 25+ HR's. So I agree, he's EXACTLY the type of guy who I think will age "well," for the post-steroid era. I really think he has a chance to hit 600 HR's. Which is why he's so interesting to me. He's been SO awful defensively that his move valuable years may be yet to come(in terms of WAR).

Meh, it pretty unlikely other than the HR's. He's only finished in the top 25 of MVP voting three times and never in the top 20. I don't see the White Sox as being a WS team in the near future. But you could certainly see him on a Yankees team as a platoon DH even into his 40's as he's just got that type of power that he SHOULD remain a HR threat late in his career.

Of course, and I would certainly agree. But wouldn't you agree prior to Big Mac, Bonds, Raffy and Sosa, all pretty much believed to have used PED's by the majority of people, that 500 HR's was a guarantee you'd get in? And I think you're answering half the question. YOUR opinion on it. I'm talking about the writers. You know a lot of them aren't comparing year to year..they're just looking at the 500-550 or even more HR's(assuming a decline, but not a HUGE one over the next 7 years). It's a tough question to answer though before you know where he ends up obviously. He could just as easily have an extremely steep decline. Anyway, he may very well be one of the first litmus tests for if 500 is still automatic entry into the HOF.

He's already at 17 HR's this year alone, and if he ends up with 18 more this year in 4 months, you're looking at him averaging only until he's 37. Even as a platoon player facing just righties, I think he gets that easily with his pure power. And if he DOES continue to hit 35-40 the next 4 years, he's a couple of DH seasons away from cruising into 40 pretty easily. Interesting discussion though. He DEFINITELY doesn't "feel," like a HOF'er to me, but if 500 is suppose to be the magic number, he could EASILY surpass, but I DO agree, he just does NOT "feel," like a HOF'er.

Harmon Killebrew had a career line of .256/.376/.509 and OPS of .884 Adam Dunn right now is at .243/.374/.504 OPS of .878 Killebrew ended up with 573 HR's. If Dunn averages JUST 27 HR's over the next 7 years, he'll end up with 573 HR's. Again though, I think he has the chance to hit 40 HR's playing in Chicago for the next 3-4 years. 120+382=502 at age 35 or 544 at age 36. This is why I think it's such an interesting discussion. He's a guy who I think will end up hitting 600 and unless something changes, he will never have been linked to PED's in anyway. But he's also a guy you NEVER looked at and said, "yeah, he's one of the best 10 players in the game," these years, or even this YEAR. Never finshed higher than 21st in MVP voting and has been a ONE All-Star game. And yet....can you keep a guy who's clean and hit 600 Hr's out?

Well, with all due respect, I believe that's ridiculous. Adam Dunn would have to struggle to be at 400 HR's by the end of this year and should EASILY be at about 410 HR's. He's 32 years old. Lets say he plays another 8 years and averages 25 Hr's a year(very low, but for the sake of argument). That would put him at about 610 HR's. And you're going to tell me that when not a single player who has hit 500 HR's without the stink of roids on him or has admitted to using them HASN'T made the HOF, this player who could EASILY surpass 600 HR's has "zero chance?" Sorry, this is a pet peeve for me. To me, he doesn't FEEL like a HOF'er, but to just blandly throw out there that he has ZERO chance of being a HOF'er...which...given the career he's had to this point at 32 years of age is ridiculous.

Those look like the same questions to me. I apologize, very-very poor wording. I'll correct that. A-Do you believe the WRITERS will elect him to the HOF B-Do you believe that he SHOULD be a HOF'er. Thanks for pointing that out. That's very difficult to read.

The question was raised with Paul Konerko the other day, a player I think has truly been one of the most underrated players in the game over the last decade...but just not quite a HOF caliber talent or HOF caliber #'s. But it got me thinking about his teammate, Adam Dunn. Now before everyone scoffs, let me make my argument. -He's 32 years old -He's at 382 HR's right now without any stink of steroids. -He's playing in the AL so he's pretty much a DH from here on out. So those absolutely....GOD awful defensive days are over and done with now. -From the years 2004-2010, ages 24-30, 7 seasons, he AVERAGED 38 HR's a season and a line of .253/.381/.533 OPS pf .914. -He's coming off a year from hell last year, but has bounced back this year and is back hitting 17 HR's and is putting up a .929 OPS. Sp now that he's at age 32, doesn't have to worry about playing in LF where I ltierally think I could have done as good of a job(not a reflection on me, but rather on Dunn's inability). If he averages 30 HR's over the next 5years, he'll be at 532...which frankly with his size and strength and playing DH in the AL is well on the low side. His BA kills him, but the guy has always walked just about as well as anyone in the league. He's on pace this year for 52 million this year. So after this year, he should easily be at 400 HR's going into his age 33 season. So with modest projections, ie, 30 HR's a year until he's 37 he's at 538 and again, I think he could very easily end up 600. There are two questions, A-Do you believe the Writers are going to elect him based on his total # of HR's IF he hits well into the 500's B-Do YOU believe he SHOULD be a HOF'er. I make the distinction because I think those on here place a higher value on defense than most voters do. 500 used to be the magic number to make the HOF. Now since the steroid era, there are some who will have hit 500 who won't make it. But those are suspected users. The Big Donkey has never been accused of, or rumored to have used PED's. He's been the big old horse since he came into the league. So I guess the question is, will the voters look at his power and On-base skills and get him into the HOF despite atrocious defense and a low BA, or will the counting #'2 be the difference? Edit-Clarified the questions regarding the writers and each posters opinion. Ie, do you think he SHOULD get in, and do you think he WILL get in, ie, Bert Blyleven SHOULD be in IMO vs Andrew Dawson who IMO should NOT be in.

I don't know why you limited it to those three pitchers, but I digress. I personally would rather go after Edwin Jackson who's due to be a FA than re-signing Marcum. For whatever reason Jackson just keeps bouncing around despite putting up good numbers and being a workhorse. I'm also partial to power arms in the post-season and believe Marcum will break down, and at the very least with a 4 year extension..if he loses any velocity, I think you're going to see a significant drop-off. I do think it's at least reasonable to hope that Thornburg, Jungman, Bradley and Nelson could all be in line by 2013/14 and definitely 15. 1st round pitchers who are fairly refined shouldn't take more than a year at a level. Bradley and Nelson are both pitching well in HiA. Not great, but for their intro to pro-ball, well enough. Both could see AA this year, but I think Nelson alone is promoted this year. Both in AA in '13, AAA in '14 and big league ready in '15 if they move slowly. And I think that's slow if they are both healthy and as good as it's suggested they are. I think it's entirely likely if they pitch well, they get a quarter season at AA this year, start in AA next year and then are a phone call away. Anyway, to make a long post shorter, I think we've got enough young pitching, that Marcum is just simply not the pitcher I want to invest in long term. Pitchers are simply not reliable obviously, and I look at Marcum, and it's not about how good he is right now, it's how good will he be if he loses 2 MPH? I think he turns into Jeff Suppan. And I think he's a huge injury risk. 2 years 25..great deal. 3/30...I'd even do that. But he'll get 4 years and 50 million IMO on the open market at least and I'd guess that's what he wants based on his current production. And when people talk about Greinke being too big of a risk, if Marcum ends up on the shelf, or ineffective...you're looking at spending another 10 million to replace him. And while Greinke certainly could get injured, I'm FAR more confident in his body and durability, and if HE loses a tick or two and is throwing at 90-91, I think his other stuff is so good, that he can still be a frontline type guy.

Hopefully that'll be his last outing in A ball. It's time for him to see AA. He's a college arm a few years out of college now who throws in the upper 90's at times and is suppose to have a plus slider. If that's the case, he should be right along Thornburg in AA.

Seriously, he has been just AWFUL in his last several starts. After a nice start to his season, sans ONE game, he's put up lines up; 3 IP 10 H 9 ER 3 BB 3 SO 6 IP 7 H 5 ER 3 BB 3 SO 1.2 IP 9 H 8R(6ER) 1 BB 1 SO 4.1 6 H 5 ER 6 BB 2 SO That's 15 IP 25 ER 13 BB and 9 SO's. That is...absolutely terrible. At least he's still got a 2.83 GO/FO ratio, but still, after a solid, if unspectacular start to the season, he looks just plain awful right now. For a guy who's already had a Tommy John surgery, it's a bit unsettling. I'd be curious if he's struggling with any injury issues, where his velocity is at....just basically what the hell is going on with him? Is he just struggling to find his command? Any insight would be great because it's hard to imagine a guy who pitched so well in AA and AAA at 22 and came in as a top 60 prospect could be pitching THIS poorly night in and night out. In the lower minors you can overlook a start like that with a particular pitcher such as Jungman because you don't know what exactly he's trying to accomplish with his start. It's usually not strictly about getting hitters out, but developing their 3rd and or 4th pitches. But at Peralta's stage, you'd assume he'd have his repetoire and he'd just be going out and trying to earn a spot on the big league roster. All I have to say is thank god for Fiers right now.

Awesome thread by the way. Don't want to get too greedy, but it'd also be fun to see a write up of the late round picks we DID sign. Though I suspect most of us already know. Gennett in the 16th, Kheeler(who I'm still holding out hope for to be either a dominant lefty or even just a SU man if he can get his control down...provided he still throws as hard as he once did and is as hard on lefties as one would imagine. Along with the McFarland's(which there isn't much to write about yet), the big old DT from FSU who I know isn't playing baseball... Anyway, great thread. Love reading about this...no matter how much it hurts remembering hearing about how we were SO CLOSE with some of these guys. I remember the story about Weeks waiting to walk into class at Miami and it sounds similar to what happened with Rodon.