HiAndTight

My ideal lineup would be after Braun's suspension(if he even has to serve it which is looking more and more suspect). I think in the first 50 games, Aoki is going to prove to be a legitimate .300/.365 hitter who can steal some bases. If that's the case, I'd like to see Hart dealt. Though as that's unrealistic; here is my with and without Braun lineups; LF-Aoki(I probably have more confidence than most that he's going to be an effective big league leadoff hitter. I think he's capable of a .365 OBP in the states. If you look at his numbers from Japan, he was incredibly effecient at taking a walk and getting on base. I think that translates well. Plus, I think he's a GG defender. LF-Aoki(LH'ed) CF-Morgan(L)/Schafer(L)/Gomez 3B-Ramirez® 2B-Weeks® 2B-Gamel(L) RF-Hart® Not just because you're a whiner about hitting 6th, I like Gamel behind Weeks to split up the Righties, and I think he adds OBP in front of Hart, and pop behind Weeks C-Lurcoy®/Maldonado(should be 110-52 IMO, perhaps catch Greinke and Wolf to split up his starts). SS-Gonzalez® Basically Betancourt at worse offensively and a huge upgrade defensively. Once Braun comes back, as I've said, I'd prefer to see Hart moved IF Aoki performs as I expect he will. Perhaps for a team in the race desperate for a bat. Assuming that doesn't happen, I guess we have to go with; 1-Hart RF 2-Morgan/Gomez/Schafer CF 3-Braun LF 4-Ramirez 3B 5-Weeks 2B 6-Gamel 1B 7-Lucroy C 8-Gonzalez I do think our bench looks a lot nicer. Aoki tyler Green Brooks Conrad Cesar Izturis Martin Maldonado Someone has to be the odd man out here though, that's the problem. I keep hearing about how people don't want to see Green "wasting" away in the big leagues. I've been one of his biggest fans for years, and we can start him in AAA, but he's not Ryan Braun. At some point, bring him up and let him contribute as a PH'er and spot starter. Though with Weeks and Ramirez, there's a good chance he'll be called upon for an extended stretch this year.

I'm just baffled by some of the posters on here. We've talked for years about how this team was built the wrong way. Power hitters who were out of position and played terrible defense, not building pitching through the minors and definitely not a great starting rotation, not to mention a dominant back of the rotation bullpen. So now we've got this guy. A guy who's raked at every-single-level he's been given a full chance at, projects to be an outstanding defender at 1st base, has an absolute picutre-esque swing, probably the prettiest swing I've seen from a Brewers left hander in a long time, he's a fantastic athlete for a 1st basemen, the polar opposite of Prince defensively with incredible range at 1st, and yet everyone is on here talking about how he's not the guy, or how we'd be better off signing a long ago washed up Derek Lee. It's just baffling to me. But...whatever. If we hadn't been set up great at the corners with Braun/Hart/Prince and McGehee, we'd have brought him up a couple years ago, and with a competent manager giving him regular playing time, I think we'd see a guy who's a upper echelon 1st basemen. Not elite, but a legit .300 hitter who is more than capable of a .875 OPS and 25 HR's while playing well above average defense. The ONLY flaw I've seen in him offensively is he's been too patient. His K ratio a couple years ago was like very high. I want to say it was something like 45 pct, and I don't remember the exact numbers, but I went back and looked at the raw numbers, and over half of his K's were on called 3rd strikes, an exceptionally high number. And that year, the only time he got ANY regular playing time, he had a .760 OPS. And for those of you out there who don't like him based on insanely small sample sizes, when he STARTED the game at 3rd(ie, knew he was going to be playing and prepared as normally would) he hit over .300 with a .865 OPS. Now I dismiss that, but people want to use even smaller samplings to discredit him, so I think it's fair in response to that. Bottom line, I'm 100 pct confident that Gamel puts up a WAR of 3.5 at the least and I think he's capable of a 4+ if the org shows ANY semblance of confidence in the guy for once and actually gives him 1B and just leaves him alone and lets him play. My fear is that hes' going to be looking over his shoulder the whole time and it'll mess with his head and the Brewers will officially screw up one of their most promising offensive prospects in a long time. Bottom line-He's

Good fit. The type of team with about 12 starting pitchers who could all be #1 or #2 types but who seem to go back and forth on a yearly basis and pitch down to 4 or 5 type starters. Obviously Hyperbole, but the Sox seem like a good fit. They've got the depth that they can afford him getting 25 starts for 22 over the next 2 whereas we just simply can't. Prior to the off-season it may not have sounded that bad, but not that they're already around where I thought they'd be payroll wise(actually a little ahead, I thought they'd top out at 100 this year and it looks as though their budget has to be 103-104) I just don't see any logical trade here. I'd give up Wolf in a hearbeat for Oswalt, but so would any other team...so...they might as well just sign Oswalt rather than deal with the 15 or so million we still owe Wolf.

That's why we speculate. When a guy who plays 3rd has great range, but is terrible at making throws, it's at least not a huge leap to suggest he can and will be able to handle 1st base better than Prince. The fact that he's also much bigger and more athletic,ie, able to make up for some more errant throws, and that Prince was terrible at picking balls at 1st, I don't think it's a stretch to speculate that he's going to be a defensive upgrade. If you want to apply the, "well, we haven't actually seen it yet," or, "you never know," logic, you can argue in circles about everything, but common sense and watching Gamel should help come to what I think is a pretty safe conclusion.

I can't see being better (and only worse) when we only missed approx 7 games from starters for all of last year. I figure Grienke to be better and Wolf to be worse and offset each other. Gallardo, Narveson, and Marcum I figure to be in the same ballpark as last year. Injuries? I can quite easily see them being not just better, but significantly better. First of all, I think even without ANY improvement, the numbers are going to look a lot better. A full season with Gamel at 1B, Gonzalez at SS, and Aram at 3rd base(who doesn't truly belong in the same group in terms of upgrades, but is one all the same) is significant. Second, IF Braun misses 50 games, while that's a net loss, it takes those games away from Kotsay and gives them to a GG from Japan, except obviously Aoki will be playing LF and not CF. I think even without seeing him play, knowing the level of talent over there, it's hard to say that's not a substantial upgrade defensively over Braun. Then on top of that, Kotsay will NEVER be playing and Aoki will get all of his PT. So there is that. The numbers should improve with the same exact pitching. But I think some of us believe that Greinke, a healthy, full year of Greinke will be much better than he was last year and will avoid some of the bad luck. Gallardo hopefully continues on the run he was on at the end of last year racking up 13 and 14 K games. Plus, there is the distinct possibility that Peralta breaks out this year and becomes "that," player that every team needs to sorta come out of nowhere and surprise and become huge impact on the team. I could see Peralta and Parra both being major parts of this BP early in the year, Peralta as our long man in order to keep his innings low and then potentially a starter. You also have K-rod all year and Veras will almost certainly end up being more valuable than Saito or Hawkins for a full year...since hopefully he'll pitch a full year. Throw in Zack Braddock who hopefully has his situation under control and lets hope that he can at least be the reliever he was in 2010 or better yet, become the reliever we all have expected for 2012. There are a lot of reasons to expect not only our numbers to improve, but our individual pitching performances. That things could go haywire and you could lose pitchers to injury is no surprise. Things like that are always possible when throwing a baseball. But there is no reason to expect it.

Honestly the Reds worry me more than the Cardinals do. You talk about how our lineup is going to be without Prince, I think Pujols had an even bigger effect on St.Louis. Wainwright won't be the same right away when he comes back and Carp will be a little bit older. After that in their rotation I see just a bunch of average starters. The reds are the team that really scare me this year. Solid Rotation, Solid lineup and solid bullpen. Isn't that what we say about the Cardinals every year? I don't count them out until the math does and right now the odds of St. Louis winning the division is the same as Milwaukee.Yeah, and every year they've had both Dave Duncan and TLR....not to mention a guy at 1B who's a pretty good hitter.

I see Hughes going back into their bullpen and giving them an incredibly dominant pen to go with their starting staff. As for the trade, I think history will look back on this one in favor of the M's big-BIG time. I think Montero's a superstar offensively, a #1 type prospect in most years(referring to the lat two) if not for guys like Harper, Trout and Strausburg. I like Pineda, but I think he overperformed, and while it's certainly to be expected, did struggle down the stretch. I don't see him as being a #1 type pitcher. I think he's going to eventually struggle with command and be a bit up and down. I'd have liked to have taken a swing at Hughes a couple months ago, but now he's a luxury a team that's already looking at 104-105 in terms of payroll if they bring up the usual # of players and add ANYTHING mid-season for a couple million. But Hughes shouldn't be left for dead. He strikes me as the type who could thrive in the NL for a team that still has some money. Washington might be a perfect landing spot for him. What do they have to lose? Make him their #4/5?

Because we've deemed ourselves to be more knowledgeable than Medical experts and consistently second guess any decision in which a player doesn't come back from injury in the time period initially proposed? Because of the hubris of some on the board has people lining up waiting to jump on them because pitchers(wait for it......) HAVE ARM INJURIES!!! Or players don't tell them about injuries right away and make them worse, or because some joints like the shoulder are just so sophisticated that you simply can't possibly know how it's going to respond? Dem be my guesses.....but I'm not a Doctor. And I didn't even stay at a Holliday Inn last night.

I'm so used to seeing Prince's name in the lineup my first thought with regard to your post was, "what optimism, that looks about right." But alas, despite being of the opinion that the Brewers are capable of spending more than most on this board(I've had them at 100 this year and 110 next year for about 2 years now). I would love to see Aoki atop the lineup for the Brewers this year. A .329/.408 line is pretty impressive, even for the Japanese leagues, and that's after the implementation of that new baseball and an injury plagued season last year where he "only," hit .292/.368. Also a career .875 OPS, and good speed on the bases, 3 time GG CF'er in Japan. 3 years 12 million, paid 3/4/5 would suffice.

Glad to have someone who sees the CF position next year the same way I do. I do really like watching Gomez play defense in center field. He reminds me of a golden retriever chasing down a frisbee. Yeah, the problem is, at the plate, he looks like a golden retriever WAITING for you to throw that Frisbee, and he just can't wait until it's thrown, so no matter how badly you throw it, he's going after it. Someone neeeds to explain it to him that simply. Golden Retriever in OF=Good. Golden Retriever at plate=Bad.

And this insight must come from your extensive personal scouting of Aoki, eh? Or Morgan's age, and his consistent ability going into his age 32 season to put together good back to back seasons?

Which he almost immediately concedes isn't accurate as Aoki is willing to take walks where as Pierre....well...he does not. I think it's important to get this guy signed. I don't care who you are, the numbers he put up in Japan prior to last year where he was both injured and they put a different ball into play is too good to pass up at 3 million. I'd go 3 years 9 million, with 2 million this year, 3 the following and then 4 the final year.

I agree that I'd have liked to see Wooten added to the 40 man roster, but to suggest he's got "great stuff," as a reliever is a bit ridiculous with all due respect. I simply don't believe a late inning reliever can have "great stuff," if he throws in the upper 80's unless he has a GREAT-GREAT secondary pitch such as Hoffman and or Rivera's cutter. And hell, Rivera still throws 95 while averaging 93 or so.

Yeah, because Kemps monster year is freseh in our minds. But as previously stated, he's also struggled. Prince for his size has been as consistent as can be. In reality, Kemp's probably going to end up in LF by the time this is over. Given his up and down nature, and Prince's durability thus far, that'd be a very difficult decision to make. If Kemp comes back next year with a WAR of 5.5 at least or 6, it'd be an obvious decision. As it stands, I think I'd rather have Prince for 8/160. As much flak as he gets for his terrible body, he's really not that fat, and he's played 160 games just about every season.

i would. with his up side and past performance, there is no reason not to believe that last year wasnt just an off-year. Yeah, I'd gladly take Hanley, he's one of the premier superstars in the game, but I sure as hell wouldn't give up Weeks+ anything for him. And the Marlins are looking to completely revamp their franchise. I don't see how trading the face of the franchise would help that. I think they're looking to spend upwards of 90 million. They're not eager to dump payroll, and I'm not eager to give up a guy like Weeks, much less Weeks+Peralta+a high level throw in. That just seems like an awful idea to me.

Exactly. And it's also woefully inaccurate. Plenty of pitchers have gone through their careers without major shoulder/elbow injuries. And with the season Greinke's coming off of, it's the perfect time to give him a Weaver like extension. I've made this point on other boards, but the Brewers ended up in the low 90's in payroll this year. They ended up drawing 3.4 million, or thereabouts. That's an additional 14 million using their average ticket prices. Throw in additional revenue from parking, the record they set in merchandising sales, and the 20 million they've got coming the year after(which would be Greinke's first year in his new deal, and they've got plenty of money. According to forbes, they made roughly 11 million dollars last year when they also spent well into the 90's when you consider Hall and Suppan's dead money. With guys like Schafer, Green, Gamel, Ginld, Maldanado coming up, that's 3 potential starters in CF, 3B and 1B, all of whom project to be at least average players, and potentially well above average defensively as a trio(I think Gamel's going to be a GG caliber defender at 1st) the Brewers can afford to spend in some other areas. Not to mention they've got a lot of pitching coming up. Rogers is a giant question mark, but he and Braddock could both bounce back next year and be key back of the pen type arms. Manzanillo, Fiers and others could also help out the pen. And everyone knows about the half dozen or so pitchers who are very close to being ready. Scarpetta pitched well all things considered in AA next year and may be a candidate with a nice year in AAA cutting down on the walks, Peralta is ready now, Thornburg is on PACE to be a big contributor, Rivas profiles as the ideal swing man, Jungman and Bradley are also two high ceiling guys. So the additional revenue, the pitching that's close, and the players we have due to make the league minimum make signing Reyes and Greinke very realistic. Not to mention an IF of Green/Reyes/Weeks and Gamel is a huge improvement defensively, Maldanado as your backup catcher is a big upgrade defensively, and Schafer is a poor mans Steve Finley IMO, minus the power. I've been predicting the last 2 years that the Brewers would be capable of spending 20 million dollars once the new TV deal kicks in. Now with the increased ticket prices and the massive increase in revenue from this past year, coupled with the fact that the worst we've done in the last 5 years, even while spending 90+ million on a couple of occasions is net 10.7 million according to Forbes magazine, I think we've been conditioned to expect the Brewers to be a little more cash strapped than they should be in upcoming years.

Sure they do. Greinke would be a FA after next year, after their new TV deal kicks in adding 20 million dollars in additional revenue to the Brewers.

Sanchez has very similar home/road splits actually. He's great at limiting hits per innings pitched, but obviously walks way to many batters and odds are against that changing. I like the trade better from the Royals side of things given how hard it can be to find competent starting pitching, but i don't think it was some rape of a trade either unless Sanchez somehow manages to walk less hitters going forward. You've got one team who has their future CF'er beating down their door(thanks to the Milwaukee Brewers and one Mr. Zach Greinke). So Cabrera is replacable. The Royals have a slew of pitching prospects who have seemingly hit a little bit of a wall in their development. They're looking for a middle to back of the rotation starter. I guess when one team gives up a player they no longer need for a pitcher who has the pure stuff to be an effective pitcher anywhere, I give that team a huge W in this trade. Sanchez has over 1 K per IP. He has to cut down on the walks, but he still has the upside of a 2/3 starting pitcher. Those are the chances a team like the Royals should take. And I think they should try and lock him up for an additional 2 years at 12 million or so. They've got money to spend and teams like the Royals need to take chances. Not to mention, I think it's more likely that Sanchez has a bounce back year and returns to his previous form while Cabrera likely just had a career year. Plus, if the Royals go out and get CJ Wilson, those two take a lot of pressure off their young elite prospects so when they come up the ace of their staff isn't Bruce Chen...who by the way would also be a good idea for them to bring back for another 2 years at 12 million. This team has the upside to be a true contender in the next year or two, but it's going to take a little bit of luck in order to do so.

Are you just basing this off one bad throw? Hart's arm isn't awful, it's probably about average or below-avg. for RF. That -1 rating that JET posted (assuming 0 is neutral) seems about accurate imo. Yeah, that's just ridiculous. Maybe he was trying to hit the cutoff guy. Either way, Hart's arm is not awful. Not sure why there has to be so much exaggeration on these boards to make a point. Hart's got a decent arm. It's stronger than it is s accurate, but it's not great at either. Braun's definitely got a stronger arm and he "goes for it," more it seems in terms of do or die type plays, so his assists may be higher, but his arm certainly isn't elite either. But the whole, "I watched this one game and this happened, so this player obviously is awful at this," line of arguing is just painful to listen to. It just wreaks of a bar conversation by fringe fans who watch now and then and LOVE to complain about everything.

Yeah, no offense, but you really should have. I've had a long, ongoing argument about what the Brewers could potentially spend over the next couple years. I think in particular once they hit get their new TV deal they should be completely capable of spending 110 million dollars. That's less than 20 million more than they've been spending which would mean they're not even spending all of the additional revenues they would get from the TV deals. Not to mention the additional revenues from record merchandising sales, record gate, increased ticket pricing, etc..etc.... So when they spent 95 or so million when they got CC and STILL made 10.7 according to Forbes, the only way they don't hit 110 is if the owners are looking to pocket substantially more money over the next few years. And I don't get that idea from Mark Attanasio. He may talk about how they ''MAY" end up in the red, even when they don't end up being even close, but as long as his actions belie his words and he keeps spending in the 90's every year, I expect our payroll to go up relative to our additional revenue. Which means frankly that 110 number might even be conservative if we keep putting good teams on the fielding and drawing over 3 million in the regular season and then pick up some playoff home games. Jose Reyes, Grant Balfour, and another solid reliever, as well as a solid bench, ie, Harriston back, and perhaps a Jamey Carroll to take over the roll of Craig Counsell. Green takes over at 3rd, Gamel at 1st, and all the sudden we've got a very good defensive IF, a MUCH improve bench with Harriston and Carroll and Balfour helps out the pen by setting up for Axford.

I'm not buying that for a second. Well, I guess it depends on "barely." Is 10-11 million "barely?" Now when they end up drawing 3.4 million or so, set a record for merchandising sales, raise ticket prices, and have a new TV deal expected to add 20 million in revenue, and Forbes has had them at around 10-11 million the last few years(at least). Makes me feel pretty confident about our ability to spend in the future.

What's that? Wild speculation based on a guess? Nah....that wouldn't be....couldn't be what YOU'RE doing here, could it?

I agree 100 pct. Spending money on guys like Sizemore and Reyes are the smartest way to go. Either go big, or go short and hope for a superstar to return to his previous levels of play. Getting the 2nd or 3rd options and you're overpaying for guys. Reason #1 I wouldn't want Rollins to come to the Brewers for what he'd likely cost.

At the beginning of the season, nobody ranked Taylor Green among the top prospects in baseball's (arguably) worst farm system. Speak for yourself. As others on other sites would attest, I've long been on the Taylor Green bandwagon and his success should come as no surprise now that he's healed from his wrist injury.

$$$$$$. He's been pretty good, but I don't like the contract one bit. The Astros aren't going anywhere for the next few seasons. I really don't think he would bring much in a trade either. Does anyone here think that the Brewers would get a haul for Randy Wolf? Rodriguez reminds me a lot of Wolf- albeit a little younger with less injury baggage, but at the same time, he's due 8 figures for an extra year. If the Brewers were 42-88 right now, do you think this board would explode if the Brewers flipped Wolf for a marginal prospect? Except Wandy has been better than Wolf by a considerable margin and he's been consistent while playing in a huge pitchers park, he's a lefty who gets K's and he's signed to a VERY team friendly deal over the next three years. I don't know how people can look around at some of the guys being bandied about legit starting pitcher's and suggest Wandy doesn't have value. Put him in a more neutral field without such an insanely ridiculous Left Field, and with a better defense behind him and htere isn't much to not to love. Finally, your comp to the Breweres is a terrible one. Wolf is our #4 with a very good 1-3, a capable #5 and a exceptional young prospect who appears to be pretty close to being ready. A little different than just flat out dumping a pitcher, a lefty at that, who;s been excellent the last three years for nothing. I see absolutely no correlation between the two cases other than they both happen to release the ball with the same hand. That's about it.