HiAndTight

Yes, obviously, that was the point I was making. However it's different when you take one pitcher out of a 5 man rotation and insert another pitcher, a highly touted potential frontline pitcher into it. With Prince leaving you were able to go out and get Gonzalez to upgrade SS, Aram at 3rd, your bench with Aoki, expect improved production from guys like Lucroy, etc..etc... You lose Greinke and now everyone has to move up a slot. Thornburg instead of stepping into a rotation with Grienke and Yo at the front of it will step into one with Gallardo and then nothing but question marks. Which goes back to my point which is why i think Greinke is the most important FA the Brewers have had since at least 1992.

I absolutely agree. I also forgot about Jason Kendall. Yost overworked him, but it also shows the difference between the caliber of catchers Yost had and Lucroy. There's no reaon for Lucroy to 40 pct of the time at this point in his career.

Yost starting catcher wasn't in his mid 20's. Lucroy vs Damien Miller is a bit different. I don't quite get all the Kottaras love for a board that rightfully values sample sizes and defense so much. Kottaras really is still just awful defensively.

Gross income usually is the money someone or something has earned before any deductions such as taxes, expenses, or promotion has been deducted. If you are receiving money after such expenses have been deducted, you are receiving money based on NET income. So the statement that if our "net," revenue was "only," 19.2 million dollars, we'd hardly have enough to pay for Prince makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Second, the 19.2 million dollar figure is roughly twice the figure Forbes has had us operating at over the last several years, a number that's almost a 100 pct certainty to go up this year. So my point, AGAIN, without nitpicking it, and a point that was backed up by Melvin when he recently said the Brewers have payroll flexibility, is that the Brewers are not maxed out, and they do have a significant amount of additional revenue coming in-in the future. It's as if some just want so much to be right that the Brewers are broke they need to nitpick these points while telling me, "I have been corrected," and then posting links back to the same thread we're currently in. So the bottom line is the Brewers are set to see a huge revenue boost next year. But this is the same argument I've been having with "the Bruce," for the last 4-5 years when I literally used 95, 100 and 110 as the payroll numbers I predicted the Brewers would be at 2011/12 and 13. Anyone really doubt the Brewers are going to be able to carry a payroll of 110 next year?

I agree 100 pct. And we won't know they're exact revenue numbers, but Forbes is the best source we have, and they made a significant jump last year from being around the 10 million dollar area to the 19.2 million. Obviously they're are other area's that money has to go to, just as the 20 million in TV money, and the additional ticket revenue this year won't go directly to the Brewers payroll, but it will continue to have a positive impact on the Brewers payroll. And I think the future of the Brewers hinges on signing Greinke. He's 0-2 as you say, but we weren't really "in it," with either of those two. I think management has to be aggressive with Greinke and offer him a big time deal right now so he doesn't get to free agency. Otherwise I could easily see him pitching for the Dodgers or the Cubs next year getting paid more than the Brewers are capable of paying. Or the Red Sox despite his struggles at Yankee's stadiums that I really don't put much stock in.

Bottom line, Braun's a GREAT hitter. He is more than capable of taking a ball on the inner third and keeping his hands in and putting it on the barrel. So my response to the pitchers that Olney talked to is..bring it. I don't think it's going to change anything. And with response to the main question, yes, I do think he'll draw more walks as his career progresses. Every year his walks have increased and he's still just 28 years old. I have little doubt he'll end up being a 11-12pct walk guy, and I think he'll carry a .385-.395 OBP.

Are they really "cries," when it's mainly one person? If he is still playing the game the same way in 6 weeks, I think he'll be just fine. 10 days ago his OPS was .800. It's early. Stats fluctuate. Something I know you're aware of because you just dismissed a point citing an 11 game sample size to support your argument, except your argument was going the exact opposite way, ie, he only hit good for 11 games, so it was insignificant. So now Gamel's OPS drops over a 10 day period and that's the number you're going to cite? So basically if a player has a great stretch, he doesn't get credit for it, if he has a bad stretch, particularly when he is a bit banged up with a sore shoulder, that does not merit consideration because.....I guess the only logical conclusion I can draw is that your opinions of a players stats changed based on preconceived notions of a player.

Good point that gets forgotten. Since April 6th his OPS is .645 and his OBP is .264. That's more than a week and a half. I find it hilarious that after 2 pretty good weeks (not spectacular by any means), everyone is declaring Ramirez as back to his prime self. I don't think anyone that thinks the ARAM signing was bad was predicting an under .220 BA and an OPS of around .600. Of course he's going to have some decent stretches. But he's not going to be a .900+ OPS guy over the course of a season. As for Braun, Molitor's career OBP is also .369 and Yount's was .342. I think it's equally funny that since there has only been 4 weeks to the season you chose to pick out two weeks as though it's a small sample size when it's half the season thus far. And thanks for declaring that he's not going to be a 900+ OPS guy anymore. It's not like he's got an .892 OPS over the last 8 seasons(including his down year following his injury) and has been over .900 in 5 of those seasons, .898 in a 6th season, and .871 last season. so his one down year which he posted a .745 OPS and two bad weeks for a notoriously slow starter is enough to declare he'll "never," be the guy he's been for the better part of the last decade? I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Aram finish the season with an OPS around .900, and I'm not sure why you've resolved yourself to the fact that a player who's clearly shown he's capable of doing just that will "never be that guy."

Yes.....exactly. They have a young flame thrower who is one of the games elite pitchers, and another top 100 pitching prospect. There is nothing the least bit biased about talking about a team that may have signed the next Pedro and a top 100 prospect. And since this is about top LA signings and international signings on the top prospect lists, why wouldn't they get mentioned? How interesting would the write up about the Brewers or most of the other teams be? In 2-3 years I think it could be VERY interesting and I expect to have as many as 10 prospects grace our top 10 in the near future, but as of now, it's Wily Peralta, and nobody else of consequence in the big picture. Some guys at the very-very low levels who haven't earned prospect status and a couple guys we like, but aren't exactly rocketing up the prospect boards.

Either way, we can nitpick all we want using vague numbers and guess at what the expenses may be, or we can use what's right in front of us and what has been used on this board(forbes) for years while it supported the opinion of the board. Despite record payrolls, our income went up substantially. Next year we have in place revenue streams that will allow that revenue to grow substantially more. It's difficult to envision a scenario in which the Brewers aren't about 30 million dollars further in the black next year when combining this years gate receipts as well as our new TV deal.

First of all, what in the world do you mean that if they "only," made 19.2 million dollars in "net," revenue they would hardly be able to pay Prince? Do you know what "net," revenue is? NET revenue is the total revenue your team has accumulated AFTER all business expenses and cost of operating. So AFTER THEY paid Prince and AFTER they paid everyone else. You're confusing GROSS income and net income. Look up the difference between the two. Gross is how much you make before you pay anyone, net is how much you are left with after all your bills are due. So your lecture takes a ugly turn right there. Especially for someone preaching to me about making "definitive," statements. And finally, I'm keeping everything, "nice." You're the one talking down to me while confusing gross and net revenues and missing the entire point. Forbes had had that exact same figure around 10 million in pervious years. Last year as the Brewers drew roughly what, 3.4 million fans to the stadium to watch 168 Brewers game, they greatly exceeded those numbers, ie, more money. Oh, and while you accuse me of going around and insulting people, perhaps you could cite these examples where I was unprovoked and attacked someone, something only you thus far has come out and even mentioned as I have not a single warning in my PM's about any type of complaints.

I understand and agree with most of your points, but these is this idea, put out there by Mark A namely, that the Brewers have their feet planted squarely on that black and red line. By all indications, that's not true. I've said this a dozen times, but after spending 95 million last year, they made 19.2 million dollars. They've raised ticket prices nearly 10 pct, they're drawing better this year, breaking every attendance record for every milestone that passes them by, and they have a new TV deal which adds 20 million in revenue, and a new radio deal kicking in next year. Not sure how much that will add. But with nearly 20 million in profit from last year, 20 million in TV money coming in, nearly 10 pct more in ticket revenue even just at last years standards, a standard they're passing pretty substantially at this point...I don't see them having to empty their coffers. Now I'd like to see Mark A and Doug Melvin go wild in the international market the next year or two before that is subjected to the international draft, and then pay off their debts(though that may not make fiscal sense as I know Mark A has generated income simply by re-doing his loans at lower interest rates 3-4 times already. But as hard as this is to believe, even at 103 million, the Brewers are not at their payroll limit, and Melvin has recently talked about payroll flexibility, ie, the Brewers DO have room in their budget to add payroll. I remember a discussion long ago in which I predicted 95 million for last year, 100 this year and then 110 by next year. I think people underestimate the revenue we're generating, as well as Mark A's will to win. Of course I'm the same guy who thinks if Greinke leaves they should do a complete rebuild, slash their payroll, invest that into the farm system and take all their assets that aren't long term pieces and move them to help their rapid rise in the farm system rankings...which by the way, after a full season of Hall and then Thornburg at AA and AAA bringing the scouting community around to the nonsensical idea that he's not a good athlete and that he can't make it as a starter...along with Bradley and Jungman, I think our system will be closer to the top 10 than the 23 they're at right now. Not to mention Scooter continuing to absolutely rake. Although there will always be questions until he steps onto Miller Park and performs there....

Sentiments also echoed before he approved the trade to the Phillies.

That's a good point. Can't afford to put all of our eggs in one basket. Never know what could happen. I don't see 5th starter as big enough of a need at this point. It could become a need, but that remains to be seen. Agreed. It's unlikely and where we are right now, those resources would be best served elsewhere. But Oswalt, despite a decline last year, would have the benefit of not pitching in Philly, one would imagine be healthier, and would be in a Clemens/Pedro type role, perhaps the best way to use him. So I highly doubt it'll happen myself. I'm just not going to close the door on it as though it's an absolute fact.

Both were LITERAL quotes from Trwi when the idea of trading for K-Rod came up last year a couple months into the season, and with regard to Aram, it came during last trade deadline when it was suggested the Brewers may target him if he was willing to sign for 10-12 million. No you have an "idea." So...the whole, "not gonna happen," nonsense is just that. Nonsense. It may well be unlikely, but but things change. If we're 3 up in a month and someone goes down, while it may be unlikely, it's certainly not impossible that we go after Oswalt. Especially since I see little need for Texas, and if Oswalt at that time looks at the Brewers as a more viable contender with his addition, it's possible. It's just this declaration of what will and won't happen on this board that's taken as fact that's a bit ridiculous at times. FF to June 1st. Carpenter's nerve injury has him out for the year, Waino is still struggling, Lohse has come down to Earth, they're struggling as a team(or they suffer other injuries as they're littered with players who have a high risk of injury as their core pieces offensively in Furcal, Berkman, Freese, Holliday as well as Lohse, Carp, Waino...). See...Brewers lose Yo/Greinke for an extended period of time when they're up a few games in the Central, the Cards stumble and lose a couple of key pieces, none of which is the least bit far fetched, and the Brewers offer him 5 million for the second half....

Payroll NOT maxed out as Melvin recently stated, and they're coming off a year in which they made nearly 20 million dollars, are looking at an additional 20 in TV revenue, are well ahead of last years pace as far as attendance goes and that's with an increase in ticket prices and parking costs. The Brewers constantly talk about being maxed out and it seems every time they end up with a very solid net revenue, and at the point we're at right now, we've got more money to spend than we've had in a long time. I have to say I also hate the "not gonna happen," comment. I argued that we may potentially trade for K-Rod and sign Aram in the last year and was told the exact same things.

Even worse. This is what we're faced with again. It's like when you start having some success in life. And you get to go out every friday night with your wife, or GF or whoever, and instead of Applebees you get to go to a nice place, spend 25 dollars a plate and don't mind a 100 dollar bill? Nobody wants to go back to big macs after that. Not sure if that analogy holds, but......sign Greinke.

I just constantly wonder how many people even bothered to listen to Morgan and RR last year when they consistently said that Morgan's early bunts weren't called from the bench? That it was Morgan doing that on his own? Christ, Roenicke had a whole interview in which he talks about not "necessarily always liking a sac bunt early on," because it can take you out of a big inning, and how those calls don't always come from the bench(to sac bunt).

Until the real George Kottaras steps up and we realize we've got a legitimate above average young catcher who's locked in for the next 5 years at 11 million dollars. It's possible, but players don't generally change like Kottaras has(and in what, 15 PA's)? And he's still a awful defensive catcher. There is no way I want him starting every other game. Perhaps PH'ing every game, but certainly not starting.

Melvin did just say despite being at 102-103, the Brewers did have payroll flexibility. That said, I'd rather we just save the 8 or so million, use it on foriegn players, or toward next years payroll and the ace of our current staff and likely the ace of our staff for the next 5-6 years if we pony up the money. The longer we "table," these talks with Greinke, the longer shot we have of signing him(obviously). The Phills will re-sign Hamels and all the sudden we're bidding against the top teams for him. Whereas now, we could get him for 115 over 5 at most(most likely). Now I was against signing Prince, same as CC for the price, but Greinke's different. With the guys we have in place coming up, with him we could have a GREAT rotation and BP. Without him, I'm afraid we could see a domino affect and the BP takes more of a beating, the rest of the rotation, at least a couple will be young will have to pick up the slack... OR we retain Wolf at an inflated one year option, and over-sign Marcum to a deal that everyone knows is going to be a terrible one in years 3 and 4(assuming it's only a 4 year deal for 50 million...which is what I'm guessing he'll sign for).

I don't like the 29 other teams comment as he's the exact type of player we need. A guy who can play 3rd, 2nd and 1st for 3 guys who've dealt with injury issues in the past in Aram, Weeks and Gamel. And I think he's got a 4-5 year run or 3-3.5 WAR everyday play out of him. If he's not up by June, and I'm him, I'd be pretty frustrated. As long as he gets goign offensively..which I have no doubt he will.

Not surprised to see Gindl throwing guys out from home plate. I've seen him play a few times and would rate his arm as a 70. He just has an absolute cannon for an arm. In fact, I think he can have a Jay Buhner like career with a little higher BA, better overall D(though not quite as strong an arm) and much better overall defense as Buhner didn't have much range. Oh, and eliminate the 40/44/40 HR seasons and average them out with 20 HR's and you have a more accurate picture. I think he's a shade below what I predicted for Gamel. .275/.360/.470 with very good RF defense. I don't know what the scouting report is on him, but again, having watched him play, that dude has a cannon in RF. Obviously Schafer has a good arm. Don't know if it's really strong, or more Aoki-like and just accurate(though I'm sure a little stronger). Throw in Green who I believe is a Mark Loretta type player with a lower BA and better power who can play all the same positions, sans SS and we've got 4 really solid, not great, but solid young players in Gamel, Green, Schafer and Gindl. Of course I'm the lone remaining holdout predicting a Gomez breakout season, though he'll probably have another year where he just can't be patient at the plate, if he does, he's got all the tools to be a Carlos Gonzalez type player. That of course won't happen, but if you look at each, Gonzalez didn't really get his start in the big leagues untill he was 24 full time and Gomez is still just 26. I know, I know, there's a lot there to call me crazy, but you see those flashes where he impacts a game and saves a game defensively, comes up with a big hit offensively, hits a 400+ HR, wins a game with his speed, pinch runs and almost automatically steals a base...now if he could just take a walk....we'd be golden.

I actually came back and mentioned that in a post. It's a little annoying that posts get deleted if someone thinks they're repetitive or whatnot as they make the poster look uneducated. I corrected that Greinke probably did and could throw 97-98 as a reliever, and even mentioned that he could get it up there in short stints. However when you're talking about a starter, you're not going to cite what he sits at during a 1 inning all star game as your scouting report. You're going to go off of where a guy is during his full start, 80-100 pitches. Not 20. That is when I fell in love with Greinke. He could throw 97-98 and then his 2 seamer would be 93-94 and just dive. This is why I was so against the CC trade. CC gave us half a year whereas Greinke was available, and I think we could have saved ourselves a prospect or two and gotten a long term player who would have helped during the past 4-5 years as opposed to a guy you got for half a season(as great a half a season as it was and then had a #1/#2 the next several seasons moving forward...and we wouldn't have had to give up what we gave up, Escobar, Odorizzi, Cain and Jeffress). But I digress as that's not the point. The point is keeping Greinke now. Signing him NOW before the Phillies sign Hamels and Greinke is thee legit starting pitcher on the market this off-season and we're back into a CC like situation where we have no chance to keep him. With all the revenue that is pouring into this team right now, and all the salaries coming off it, to not lock him up would be a mistake that would hurt this team for 10+ years.

I just don't see this as a "rushing," Peralta. I wouldn't even see this as rushing Thornburg. It's an organizational philosophy I suppose. Atlanta wouldn't hesitate to move up a guy like Thornburg(and didn't last year several times). The Giants, there are a lot of teams that move guys up more aggressively. But Estrada's an exceptional option to rely on, and honestly the depth we have is really the reason that I am SO hell bent on keeping Greinke, even if it costs an exorbitant amount of money. The Brewers lose those two rocks atop their rotation, and all the sudden the expectations of the Tyler Thornburg's, Wily Peralta's, Jed Bradley's, Taylor Jungman's, Jimmy Nelson's...they all are significantly less. The loss of a Chris Narveson, which sucks because continuity is nice, but I do think it allows us to potentially upgrade that spot later in the season. Narveson is a great #5, but a Vince Worley #5 potentially would be a heckuva lot nicer. Not saying you'll get that out of Peralta, but you have the potential to get more out of a Peralta/Thornburg(who probably won't even be an option for another year, but should be a BP arm in Sept if we've contending and he's anywhere NEAR where he is now).

Wow. I can't imagine how sensitive you could be if that is a "derisive comment," by stating the guy who's been starting and throwing almost 100 pitches per start is more stretched out right now than a guy who threw I think 5 innings the entire season thus far. I understand why people walk on egg shells if me saying a guy who's started all year long thus far and has thrown 100 IP in his last start is more stretched out than a guy who had thrown 104 pitches over 5 games thus far.