ramssuperbowl99

Something else worth mentioning is that if Gamel can essentially replace McGehee at 3rd, McGehee immediately becomes trade bait. The 100 RBI season did wonders for his value, especially in the minds of some of the more non-SABR GM's out there. Add in "positional versatility", "clutch hitting" and 4 more years under team control and that's an enticing player. If we could get a good prospect for McGehee, plug in Gamel in at 3rd and not lose much production, that's a huge win for the Brewers.

You're projecting one guys walk rate to go down and the others to rise? That's sloppy at best, walk rate increases with age almost uniformly. Ackley's defense and Lawrie's power must be considered a wash, then Ackley gets the nod since Lawrie might not stay at 2B in the eyes of scouts. Lawrie might be better than Ackley - I have them in the same tier of prospect, so it's kind of a pointless exercise to get all jazzed up over one at 5 and the other at 4 or whatever. But calling it a "total joke" is a total joke - they are top 15 prospects in baseball.

The first round is important, and I hope we don't take a supplemental player 15th overall. I doubt we will, Melvin has always been pretty good about taking prospects right around where they should go - Covey was a top 20 talent, so was Lawrie, so was Arnett. The area where the Brewers need to go get some guys with upside is the 2nd-5th rounds and beyond. While we went out and got Jimmy Nelson, who projects as an innings eater, the Pirates got upside-filled Stetson Allie, the Nats got AJ Cole and his 95 mph fastball, etc. etc. Let's go get some of those guys so that if we don't sign our 1st round pick, the whole draft still has some upside.

I asked Callis, and he said: "Scouts didn't like it nearly as much as mgrs did."I asked Kevin Goldstein and he said, "Possible that he becomes a #3, not realistic, and I saw his best start." Not sure what to make of Heckathorn...maybe a back-of-the-rotation type guy?

The Brewers have been a couple games over .500 over the last 6 years now. The last time we had a 6 year stretch this good was 87-92. Before that it was 78-83. I dunno, hard for me to call his record bad given our payroll, market size and the team he started with. I don't think joe average GM would have us in better shape that is for sure, some of the best GMs in the game probably would though... they all have other jobs though. This is more or less what I think. Melvin has done, all in all, a pretty good job. Are there better GM's out there who would recognize we need to develop more elite high school talent on a yearly basis to make the playoffs? Yeah, probably. But what are the odds that we hire that guy and not the next Omar Minaya? I'll stick with Melvin. Also, people can say what they want about the pitching, but we don't know the whole story. Everyone here is quick to knock Melvin's contracts, and I understand, some of them are bad. But he has come out and said many high priced free agents just don't want to come to Milwaukee. Maybe he went out and tried to get a John Lackey/AJ Burnett (thank god he didn't, but the point stands) that would have done the organization wonders. We don't know everything, so it's tough for us to make completely objective evaluations. Further, I have to give the guy my support as far as developing and scouting hitting. Casey McGehee was a waiver claim, Lawrie, Escobar, Braun, Cain (was he a Melvin guy?), Lucroy, Weeks (was he a Melvin pick?) all are a result of the Brewers' scouting department and Melvin's work. That's an impressive list, and that's why we are spoiled (and will continue to be, it appears, for the foreseeable future) on offense. Finally, it looks like the pitching is coming around. Rogers started his career off with 9 IP, 0 H. I know that's a small sample size, but that does tell you something about the caliber of stuff he has. If he harnesses it, we finally have our cheap #3. Gallardo is becoming an ace, all he needs to do is throw more strikes. As bad as Wolf's contract is, he can be a #4 and Narveson can be a #5. All we need is Robin to Gallardo's Batman and our rotation is solid. That doesn't even address the improvements the bullpen is making. Looking at fangraphs' shutdowns/meltdowns stat for bullpens, we are among the worst this season. But with Axford, Jeffress, Braddock, and any of the arms we don't have room for in the rotation, we might actually have a mostly homegrown bullpen, lineup, and rotation. Yeah, the Suppan and Doug Davis contracts are bad. However, Melvin looks like he has finally developed enough pitching that he won't have to go out and get any more #3 starters anymore. That's been his biggest weakness, and if he can cover that up with the farm system, we can expect better performance from him down the road.

Good work battlekow challenging Jim Callis on his twitter (www.twitter.com/jimcallisba). Callis responded with "understatement, not hyperbole". Not sure he used those words correctly, as saying that Heckathorn not being a disaster like Arnett is an understatement means that Heckathorn was actually worse than he implied in the first place.

And that, awesome work all the way around. Pretty exciting to see so many of our pitchers from low A and high A to AA and AAA now. Looks like instead of having pitching depth in the low minors, we now have it throughout. And it looks like the 2010 draft could help solidify our low A rotation too. The other thing that gets me is the sheer number of the overcrowdings we have in the minors. How about Neda, Garfield, and Roberts vying for 2 spots? Or Hunter Morris, Cody Hawn, and Dennis? Depth like that is enviable, to say the least. The Brewers need guys like this, whether to fill out the back of a bullpen, be role players, or be starters. It allows us to use our money exclusively on starters and stars.

I didn't mean that Rogers and Scarpetta are similar in terms of body build, they couldn't really be much different there, I just meant similar in terms of upside. I see each as a potential #3, but a #2 if everything breaks right. That's where the comparison came from. They also each have the best pure stuff in the system - Odorizzi is in that conversation too, but that's how I see them as similar. And they can't throw a C like Garfield into the FSL. I could see if it was a hitter friendly environment, but let's not pretend that he doesn't have enough to learn defensively and offensively in Wisconsin. Optimally, he plays really well in the beginning of the year and justifies a quicker promotion so that Roberts can get some A ball ABs before the season's end, but that might be asking a fair bit. I don't know if this is normal on these forums, but it might be a fun exercise to take all our guys on the Power 50 and give them projected assignments. Is that a thread worthy topic?

That's too bad with Roberts. I think they could split time, and I'd rather see Roberts get some full season ABs. He keeps proving himself to the Brewers staff, both last year and this year, and they haven't seemed too responsive. I wish they were more aggressive with him. Neda didn't play at all this season (though I'm not sure why- do you have info on that?) and a FSL league assignment would be tough. That might work out, and he has the defense already, but man, if he hits in the FSL, he'd rocket up the Power 50. This is a very good problem to have, but between Garfield, Roberts and Neda we have 3 catchers for 2 full season spots. I guess Roberts is the odd man out on that list. Downside of having a catcher pipeline?

Good list guys! Alot of it I agree with, specifically the big bumps that Tyler Thornburg and Jimmy Nelson got. I don't think I would have Jeffress or Braddock that high, simply because they are both looking more and more like relievers. Mark Rogers as the best of the "non-Odorizzi starters" makes alot of sense to me given his upside and the fact that he could make the MLB roster out of spring training if everything breaks right. A few guys that I think are underrated are Cody Scarpetta, who has upside similar to Rogers and had a nice year in the FSL. I'd have him above Heckathorn, Rivas, and Peralta, and probably somewhere around 5 or 6 on the overall list. Striking out more than a guy per inning says alot about Scarpetta's stuff, and (in general) I'd much rather have to deal with a prospect that has MLB stuff which can miss bats than have a guy with nice command and little upside. I'd have Tyler Roberts a fair bit higher, as being named the 4th best prospect in the AZL is a pretty big accomplishment. Same with Cody Hawn, who lit up rookie league pitching. An assignment to A ball is inevitable, and he could move quickly through the system. Any chance we see Tyler Roberts in A ball on an aggressive assignment next season? Garfield is likely to repeat the level, but Roberts was so good this year and you'd think the Brewers would want to give him more ABs. I think the T-Rats could have a pretty formidable lineup next year. Not to mention a pretty good rotation. Also, any takers on how far Thornburg moves up the system? If his arm is healthy and the Brewers commit to him as a bullpen guy (they should, IMO) then he could make it to AA. Maybe even get a cup of coffee. I guess I can finish with my personal Brewers top 10:1. Brett Lawrie - No brainer, don't see him leaving this spot until he graduates to the big leagues.2. Jacob Odorizzi - Still low in the system, but could reach AA as a 21 year old next year. Has big league stuff and good fastball command, needs to work on the secondary stuff, but could be a #2.3. Lorenzo Cain - He's in the MLB already, so we know the floor is high. He has the ceiling of an above average CF, especially if his defense grades out as MLB average.4. Mark Rogers - Good debut for Mark. The fastball command needs to improve, but nobody is low on his stuff. The idea that he might be a bullpen arm is looking less and less likely. He's turning into the #3 starter the Brewers have needed for so long, and if he throws strikes, he could be better than that.5. Cody Scarpetta - Similar to Rogers, but without the same velocity and high floor. Scarpetta looks ready to cement his prospect status at AA, and an improvement in command could lead to huge numbers. A breakout candidate on the prospect map next year, and not just in terms of Brewers' prospects.6. Jeremy Jeffress - He's looking like a career bullpen guy, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. He profiles as a top 10 closer in baseball, and between Axford, Braddock and Jeffress, the Brewers shouldn't buy any bullpen arms for a long time.7. Wily Peralta - Scouts love the fastball, and the command has been pretty good. Peralta's K/9 numbers might disappoint some, but if his secondary stuff jumps up a notch, as it should, I'd expect the K's to come roaring back. Learning how to pitch for wormburners is a valuable skill.8. Kyle Heckathorn - Big body, good velocity, better command than we thought. Not sure why the K's aren't piling in, but as long as he keeps getting grounders, he'll keep profiling as a #3/4. Consistent performer, should move quickly.9. Kentrail Davis - Injuries killed his power, but he showed a great approach (.380 OBP in the FSL says something!). If the power comes back and he can play a good RF, the Brewers might really have something.10. Zach Braddock - He's been in the big leagues basically all year, but still hasn't graduated. The stuff is there, but he doesn't quite have the fastball of a top closer. Should be a great 8th inning guy. HM: Tyler Thornburg, Scooter Gennett

Sure, but worst case scenario, Braun is just as bad at 1B as he is at LF. Hart would probably be an about average LF defender, which is about 5 runs better than he is now. Obviously, there is a hole in RF in that case, but that could be filled by a FA, Lawrie, or Gamel. It has always puzzled me that Braun is as bad in left as he is. He's a good athlete with good speed and a decent arm. He doesn't make a tremendous amount of errors either - he just doesn't get to balls. I don't know if this is a coaching problem, an effort problem on Braun's part, or what it is, because a LF with good speed should be a decent defender. It just doesn't make sense to me.

You really don't see how he has had enough injury and command issues and should be kept off of anyone's list? People are willing to forget command when you are 20 years old in a tough assignment, but are less forgiving after 2 shoulder surgeries, 3 years on the sidelines, and an assignment that isn't perceived as difficult. If you really think that's where Rogers lies in terms of pitching prospects, I don't know what to tell you, and you really aren't that pessimistic when it comes to Brewers' prospects at all.

I completely agree. I'm not trading anyone on the farm when we can stockpile talent for a legitimate playoff run in a few years. But that's what it would take to peak the Royals' interest. No point in suggesting trades if the opposing team wouldn't do it.

By the way, just to make this clear, I want to say I have nothing but respect for this site. It's among the best at what it does, and I check things like the Link Report, audio feeds, and first person reports on a daily basis during the season. It's really incredible that you guys can put this together, and I don't mean to bash anything you do. I agree with your sentiment on Rogers - I think that he can come up in June and have success at the MLB level as a starter. I also think he can be a solid #3 starter for 6 years - there is indeed a great deal of value in that. You also hit the nail on the head with him, his command needs to develop significantly and he is still a huge injury risk. I'm lower on Rivas simply because his fastball doesn't miss bats like Rogers does, but I think he can be a good middle reliever and spot starter at the MLB level. He's done well at AA as a 24 year old, and maybe I'm just low on the guy, but I'd like to see a knockout secondary pitch or more action on his fastball before I see him as a mid-to-back rotation guy. My use of "fringe prospect" was probably harsh, however. The only reason I use BA extensively right now is because they talk to more executives. You guys probably do know more about the Brewers Top 50 prospects than Tom Hadricourt, but I doubt Dayton Moore knows much more than any of the BA staff. And I'm not saying GM's just go by that either - we certainly have more than enough evidence for that with the Brett Wallace - Anthony Gose swap this summer. I'm just using BA's rankings as a general guideline, and it's pretty clear that the consensus from that says that we have Lawrie, Odorizzi, and a drop of in terms of trade value for prospects. We do, however, know Greinke's value. He's somewhere between the top 5 and 8 pitchers in baseball, making way less than he should for 2 years. There is gigantic value in that, and we can extrapolate that it's 2 very valuable prospects and 2 high ceiling guys based on what other teams have gotten for their aces. I'd figure Lucroy, Odorizzi, and 2 low level guys would be enough to really get the Royals interested.

The draft in 2011 is highly unlikely to have any impact until at least the 2014 season. More like the 2015 season. Depends on how we draft. A high end college pitcher should make the big leagues relatively quickly. 2 years wouldn't be out of the question there, but if we draft a high school arm, yes, the odds are pretty good he won't help a big league club for a while.

The "replacement player" is defined as a player who is 80% as good as the MLB average. Personally, I think Wolf is due to rebound slightly. His FIP from 2007 to 2009 hovered between 3.95 and 4.17, his xFIP from 4.17 to 4.36. He's older, so I guess the .8 jump in each could be due to a lack of skill, as his swinging strike % is down a fair bit, but I don't think a 2 WAR season is much to ask for. And I'd put a 2 WAR season right around the #3/#4 starter area. With Yovani firmly manning the #1 and Wolf/Narveson filling out the back end of the rotation (and lefty quota), the Brewers just need a quick infusion of a #2/#3 to have a respectable rotation next season.

I think if we trade Weeks and Fielder, we'd have to completely embrace the blowup. I'd rather have Weeks extended for 4 years, maybe at $10M per or so, but if not, his value will probably never be higher. McGehee is likely going to end up getting 100 RBI, so it might be a good opportunity to go out and trade him to someone that needs an affordable 1B/3B. Any GM who uses archaic stats in player evaluation would be all over him. If we did that to boost the farm system, then drafted aggressively with our 2 first round picks, we'd dramatically increase our chances of competing in 2012/2013.

People have asked questions to BA (and others) during the year about whether Mark Rogers is a top 100 prospect. The answer was always no, and you think he's a top 30 prospect? Yesterday Jim Callis came out and said he thinks Rogers is more likely to be a bullpen arm; Keith Law has said the same thing. Callis admitted that maybe he could be a #3 (perfect world, a #2), but this "top prospect in baseball" praise. Heck, BA redid their top 50 during the middle of the season, and Rogers wasn't on that. Neither was Odorizzi, who, as everyone here would admit, is a significantly better prospect than Rogers. Callis has come out and said (right after Odorizzi's no hitter) that Odorizzi is a borderline top 100 prospect - he might make the list, he might not. I have no idea how you came to the conclusion that Rogers is now a top 30 prospect. And a guy like Rivas, a cheap, #4 type starter, has virtually no value to the Royals. They have a system so loaded in pitching between Montgomery, Lamb, Duffy, Crow, Melville, and probably a few I'm forgetting (the first 2 are top 20 prospects, the 3rd might sneak into the top 50 and the others have upside) that a guy who can eat innings means nothing. They are going to be looking for another ace, especially since they are trading an ace away. That means the guy they get in return better have upside and a good chance of reaching it, Rivas has limited upside (maybe a 4, more likely a 5/LR), Rogers is viewed as a longshot to be a #2. Sorry, but that's the industry consensus. Heck, that's how Callis and Co. at BA come up with the rankings - they talk to scouts and GM's and ask what they think. The only time I referenced top 100 lists in my post was comparing the White Sox's deal for Peavy to the proposed Brewers' deal for Greinke. I know that their preseason list doesn't mean much, but the value gap here is so large that it's ridiculous. Obviously you are welcome to your own opinion, but I think you are putting way too much stock in prospect rankings. Especially from Baseball America. If you look at our last top 10 list, Eric Arnett is number 4. The list before that included Cutter Dykstra at #7 and Cole Gillespie at #9. But if you want to look strictly at rankings I would tend to put more stock in the Power 50 list, actually, because the editors of that list have a lot more knowledge about this specific team. If you look at the latest list, the trade I proposed contained 3 of our top 10 prospects (#s 3, 8, and 10), and Amaury Rivas is in the top 10, unlike in the BA list. I also disagree that I have not included any high ceiling players. I think Rogers' ceiling is very high. Literally the only thing hold him back is control, and this was basically his first full year back after two major surgeries, so it is very possible that the control can improve. Jeffress's seemed to improved a lot this season. I also think someone like Rivas who could easily be a #4 pitcher does high a fairly high ceiling. Any trade that could net you 2/5 of your starting rotation as soon as 2012 is something to be looked at. It's very possible, maybe even probable that KC wouldn't accept that specific deal, but like Bruce said, I just don't think it's nearly as bad as you make it sound. The Power 50 might be more accurate (I haven't looked at how their top 10 have performed versus BA's over the years) but the BA rankings represent the industry consensus. That's what matters for trades. It doesn't matter if Rivas actually ends up a stud or not, all that matters is how Dayton Moore perceives his value. And, based on the industry reports to BA, Rivas is a fringe prospect. Sorry, that's just the way it is. Maybe the guys who run this site know better, maybe they don't. All I do know is that the guys who run this site don't have as much contact with high ranking officials within baseball as the guys at BA, and for trades, that's what counts. Obviously Rogers has a high ceiling, but when I mentioned high ceiling players, I meant as the 3rd or 4th guy in the deal. Generally when big name players are dealt, there are a few prospects who are highly rated, close to the majors, and have a high ceiling, then a guy or two who isn't polished, but has a high ceiling. See the Braves' deal for Tex for examples like Neftali Feliz, who had a cannon but was in the low minors at the time. You offered 1 guy with a high ceiling, 2 guys the Royals have no room for (Gamel and Rivas), and a 26 year old veteran with a career ERA over 5 and FIP over 4.4. In 2012, KC would have a rotation of Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, Danny Duffy, Brian Bannister, Luke Hochevar, maybe Aaron Crow (if he figures out his command), any free agent they choose to go after, and Greinke if they don't trade him. Rogers might crack the back end of that rotation, but I'd take Greinke, Montgomery, Lamb, Duffy, Hochevar, and Crow all over Rivas at this point. I'd think most fans would agree with me. Rivas has no value to the Royals, and I'd probably take the 2 1st round draft picks straight up over your proposal, even if I didn't get a season of Greinke with the draft picks. Like I said, if I'm the Royals I think about Lucroy, Odorizzi, and a pair of high ceiling guys in the low minors.

Jim Callis has come out and said Odorizzi has a solid chance to make the top 100 this year, but that's neither here nor there. Also, Greinke's down year is a 5 WAR season which has his ERA inflated due to a ridiculously low LOB%. He's probably sitting much closer to his ZIPS projection (3.18) in terms of actual skill. Rogers, Rivas, Parra and Gamel still isn't even close to the value the Royals would want for Greinke. Obviously, Peavy isn't as good then as Greinke is now, as based on his home/away splits, but I'll compare the 2 packages just the same. Poreda is a 6'6" 240 pound lefty who struggled with command, but was dominating the low minors with a crazy fastball/slider combination. If his command didn't improve much, he was a solid #1, but to say he didn't have a #1 ceiling based on his stuff is wrong. When he was dealt from the White Sox, he was striking out nearly 10 per 9 with an ERA under 2.50 in AA as a 22 year old. He was the headliner, as based on his preseason ranking that year of 63 by BaseballAmerica. No player the in the Brewers' offer matches his prospect status. And it's really not that close. Clayton Richard was an MLB ready lefty who had demonstrated outstanding control in the minors (check out his 2008 walk rates), had good stuff (a fastball that sits at 91-92 mph) and the body of a solid innings eater. He's essentially what we want Manny Parra to be, albeit with a little fewer strikeouts. This season, he's thrown nearly 200 IP of 3.63 FIP and 3.63 tERA baseball and been an above average starter. He was more valuable than Parra, Rogers or Rivas, given his established MLB pedigree, good stuff, and good command. Dexter Carter and Adam Russell were throw ins who had big bodies, electric stuff, but minimal probabilities of making extended MLB contributions. Neither has had success, however, scouts were all over Carter's potential. For a different report on it, check the Fangraphs article on the trade: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/peavy-to-the-white-sox-for-real-this-time/ Let's compare that (a potential #1, a solid #3 with virtually no downside, and 2 high ceiling prospects) to your deal. Aumary Rivas has never made a Brewers' organizational top 10 done by BA, despite his success. He doesn't strike out enough batters or have the raw stuff to miss enough bats and generate enough ground balls to be a #3. His fastball is average, his changeup is a tick above, and his slider is below average. His control has been good enough that he has gotten through the low minors with low walk rates (and thus, a good K/BB ratio of roughly 2.1 for his career), but no scout will call him a #3. He certainly doesn't compare to either of the two elite pitchers the White Sox dealt. Mark Rogers has extensive injury history, which serves to lower his stock in any trade significantly. The stuff is all back, and I'd expect him to take a huge leap forward next season in terms of his prospect status, but right now he is a 24 year old with significant shoulder wear-and-tear who walked 5.6 per 9 in AA. That's alot more than "refining his command some" - it's a complete overhaul of how many strikes he's throwing. I think he will do it, and I think his walk rate could be 3.5-4.0 in the MLB, but everything else would have to break right for him to be a #1. The odds are that he becomes either an elite closer or a pretty good starter. The kind of guy who will frustrate fans with pitch counts and walks, but will miss enough bats to record 180 IP/season of 3.50 ERA ball. I think he's valuable, and if I did a top 100 list, he'd at least warrant consideration. But he doesn't compare, at least as a prospect right now, to the White Sox top 2 arms. Mat Gamel actually has negative value to the Royals. They literally don't have any space for him. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Billy Butler are all better, and Gamel is too bad defensively to play anywhere else. Even if you think you could stick him in RF, Wil Myers will more than likely end up there. Manny Parra is out of favor with the organization. He, for whatever reason, allows so many hits that it is virtually impossible for him to end up being a kind of pitcher the Royals are going to want. His stuff is very good, his command is non-existent, and he hasn't shown any improvement since he broke into the majors in 2007. The Royals would view him as a fringe #5, and they probably aren't that far off, unfortunately. I always thought that his BABIP would come down and we'd see his ERA line up with his FIP and xFIP splits, but a 400 IP sample size is too large to ignore now. So, the 2 "throw ins" (Parra and Gamel) don't have the ceiling that the Padres got and the top 2 don't have the upside or consistency. The guy the Royals should be looking at is Lucroy. I could see some combination of him and Odorizzi being the centerpiece of the deal, but if you want to get a talent like Greinke, you need to pony up with top 100 prospects and high-ceiling players. You have done neither. EDIT: Jim Callis just answered a chat question on Mark Rogers' ceiling. Jim Callis: If you really dream, you could see his power arm turning him into a No. 2 starter. But his command makes being a No. 3 starter a more realistic, and I still see him as more of a reliever in the long run. His comeback from two shoulder surgeries to regain his stuff is one of the best baseball stories of the year.

The Brewers are now just 1 game "back" of the Cubs for the 9th pick. Since the Padres get the 10th pick for not signing their first rounder, finishing a game or two behind the Cubs would really improve the talent available to the Crew. Specifically, I'd like them to target one of the top 3 prep arms in the country (Archie Bradley, Daniel Norris, and Dylan Bundy). Then at 15, you can pick a college pitcher who falls or a pitcher who can run through the system quickly - someone like an Alex Wimmers, Mike Minor, or Kyle Gibson. In the later rounds, I'd like to see the Brewers spend some of their high picks on additional 1st round high school talent. If we could devote $4M of the money we save in Prince, our farm system will go from fringe top 10-12 to one of the top 5 in the game immediately.

If Jacob Turner could headline that deal it'd be great. The nice thing is that we wouldn't have to throw them much salary and they aren't afraid to trade their biggest and best prospects (see Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller). They are a good fit, as are the Rays, Giants, Mariners, Mets, Red Sox, and maybe the White Sox.

The Royals would laugh and hang up. That's not even close. Greinke is a 6 WAR/year pitcher making not even close to his market value. Manny Parra's only distinction is that he has the highest career BABIP among pitchers with 350 IP since some guys from the 1870's. He's not a top 100 prospect, he's getting old, and, quite frankly, his command hasn't improved. Add in the fact that it's rather obvious he's fallen out of favor with the organization, and there is no way he would headline a trade for a top 5 pitcher in baseball. Rogers they might be interested in, if only because of his velocity, but Rogers isn't a top 100 prospect either. His command isn't good enough. Rivas is a back of the rotation starter is everything breaks right, more likely a 6th starter/long reliever type. Green and Gindle are throw-ins, and the Royals have better in house options. Gamel is also worthless to the Royals considering they already have Billy Butler, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer to man the corners and the DH spot. No way the Brewers could get Greinke without including one (and maybe both of) Lawrie and Odorizzi. Dayton Moore doesn't need fringe prospects - he has the best farm system in baseball. He would want more premium, elite talent, and there isn't any in that offer.

Daniel Hudson is a #3/#4 starter. The Brewers will have plenty of those from their system, and even more when you project 2 1st round picks in the top 15 from the star-studded 2011 draft. We don't need any more average starters, we need impact talent. The Rays make perfect sense. Granted, they are going to be slashing payroll considerably, but I'd be willing to pay most, if not all of the Brewers salary to get a deal done. The Rays get 2 compensation picks, another year to develop their 1B of the future (whoever that may be), and they can assemble their best team in franchise history. The Brewers need impact arms for 2012, which is when we have a legitimate playoff shot again. That means guys like Hellickson (who is probably off the table), Davis, Moore, McGee, Colome, etc. etc. are who we should be targeting. As much as Matt Garza makes sense short term, he won't be the #2 to Yovani that we need. Since Prince will likely go to arbitration, I'd offer:Prince Fielder + $ (the number being the Brewers arb bid) for Davis, Moore and 1 high ceiling guys (Wikin Rodriguez or Alex Colome (if we are lucky?)) As for the Brewers waiting too long - Ike Davis wasn't going to get a Fielder deal anyway and the the Rays wouldn't have been interested a year ago, what with Burrell and Pena under team control. I'd much rather have the Rays as suitors than the Braves.

I agree. Slamming the Brewers staff for missing with a late 1st round draft pick (which was heralded at the time, mind you) is hindsight 20-20. Roughly half of these guys completely fail. But the fact that we have capitalized outside the 1st round (so far - knock on wood) with guys like Odorizzi, Heckathorn, and Scarpetta means that we don't have to worry about 1 pitching prospect. As for Arnett, I think his offseason goal needs to be to simply get back to square one. Whether that's going back and looking at tape, getting MRI's done on his elbow/shoulder, getting back to conditioning, adjusting his approach on the mound, whatever, he needs to do it. A 23 year old in Wisconsin isn't a real prospect anymore, but that doesn't mean he can't make the majors or be of value to the Brewers as a starter or reliever. I, for one, am not ready to give up on a guy because of a season and a half of bad results. His stuff still profiles as very good, even though reports of his velocity and secondary offerings have varied this season, so if it takes him until he's 26 to make the majors, that's fine with me. Heck, that just means he's under team control for his prime years (26-32). It's very easy to pout and scream at the front office which has essentially drafted/signed/claimed our entire MLB team for not getting this one right, but that doesn't make it the right thing to do. The Brewers haven't developed pitching very efficiently in the past, but it appears that the tide is turning in that regard. All we need to do is be patient for another year or so with everyone in the farm - especially Arnett.

Have we considered taking $10M or so of this money we would be putting into middling free agents in 2011 and instead throwing it all in the draft/IFA market? Imagine if we could go out and get the Wil Myers of 2011. Yeah, it's expensive, but the upside on the back end of deals like that are tremendous. Especially with the talented draft coming up, we could see some awesome bonus babies slip right into our laps. Like I said, it's tough to make this team a contender without having a video game offseason. Why not bide our time a little bit, so that when we are ready to contend, we are full of homegrown, cheap players with more in the system? The Rays are going to be good for another 6-8 years, not just a few, because they took their time and stacked the system completely before promoting everyone and making a run. Let's use that as our model. Also, as for the Prince Fielder money situation - if we get much better prospects in return, I'd gladly throw them $8M or whatever. The prospects just have to be worth it.