ramssuperbowl99

McGehee seems like a guy who takes this seriously based on his reactions to bad plays and when he looked so relieved breaking his 0-27 slump earlier. RRR is doing him no favors playing him every day or batting him 5th. I'm all for McGehee and I like him, but Taylor Green needs to come up if only to take some of the pressure off.

Ben Badler has a link to an Arcia report, for those of you who are BA subscribers.

link And no, roster decisions for those guys are entirely a mystery until summer.Thanks. Good to see we are restarting our LA development. Let's hope he's the first of many. Joel Pierce said he expects to be placed at Low A Wisconsin, so if Melvin and Co. are going to be aggressive with him, I'd like to see the Crew do the same with many of their young pitchers (and Perez is at the top of the list).

Second it!!! DSL is prob my favorite team to follow in the system. I can't wait to see what guys are promoted to the states. Ruben Sanchez, Andres Martinez, Jose Pena, Hitaniel Arias, Jose Garcia, Ronny Pullo, Raul Mondesi Jr. Carlos Pena, Yorki Hernandez, Jeffrey Saba, Carlos Soda, Eliezer Montano, and Manny Ruiz are all guys I am really looking forward to seeing if they devolop into legit prospects. Best part about Perez is he is only 17 (18 mid season) and have read he is hitting 94mph. Plus a 6'3 200lbs frame also is pretty nice Where are you getting this stuff? I can't find a single thing on Perez. Also, any idea if Perez is going to move up to rookie ball or anything? It would be nice to see the Brewers aggressive with their pitchers.

Way too much fun listing breakout guys to just list 1 (*coughhedgingmybetscough*) Position players:D'Vontrey Richardson - He might be the best athlete in the entire Brewers' system (including Milwaukee). A year into his baseball career, he started to turn the corner. Now comes the explosion. Look for comparisons to Curtis Granderson by years' end. I actually think he ends up in the top 5 Milwaukee prospects next season. Kentrail Davis - Hamstring issues aside, Davis is going to put himself back on the MLB prospect map with a great season. He walks so much that when the pop comes back he should rocket up lists. Pitchers:Brooks Hall - 6'5", throws in the mid-90's and has potential for great off-speed stuff? Sign me up. His stuff is simply too good to let lower level hitters pummel him. He's going to K 10 guys per 9 next season. Cody Scarpetta - Funny how a little mechanical tweak can turn Scarpetta's dream season in 2011 from "let's see if he can get the walks down a little bit" to "is he really going to keep that up!?" We all knew he could strikeout 10 per 9, but if he can limit the walks to 3 per 9, he's not just a top 100 guy - he's a top 50 guy with a solid #2 ceiling.

This is what upsets me about the timing of the Lawrie deal. That cost us a fair bit of leverage, and the Weeks camp knows just as well as anyone that if the Brewers start 2012 with Eric Farris entrenched at 2B we aren't going to be enjoying Greinke's final season in Milwaukee. Honestly, the answer to this is a deal that could escalate to Uggla's contract based on games played. Set the baseline at his current play over the next 4-5 years (so $9M or so) and offer $3M or so in GP incentives each season. If he stays healthy, he could get as much as $60M or so - basically the Uggla deal that he wants. If he doesn't, he still gets paid, but not as much.

I'm not sure why everyone is assuming the Mets are in on Fielder. I guess I could see them breaking the bank for Pujols, but Ike Davis seems like the 1st baseman of the future in NY. The only really good fits are Baltimore and Chicago. LAD doesn't have the money, LAA has Kendry Morales and hates Scott Boras, Toronto has Adam Lind/Travis Snider/Jose Bautista (and his long term deal), and the Giants have Aubrey Huff and Brandon Belt. I'm starting to wonder if the minimal amount of teams who can really offer Fielder and the concerns over Fielder's body type could make him the "new Adam Dunn". Remember when Dunn was looking for a $100 M and got 2 years $20 M or so? Fielder will do better than that, but would it surprise you that much if he doesn't see a $120 M offer?

I hope it's considered young. All farm systems are young. But no, it is not average. You will not find one objective scout, evaluator, or anyone who says so. Stating there is no other argument than bad is just a fact. No emotion involved. Your definition of bad means every single farm in the MLB is currently "OMG AWESOME FARM!!!!" and that's just not true. Bad is on the bottom of the curve. And we are bad.

The way Arnett has started and with how far away from the majors Brooks Hall is, they don't have a good shot of being anything special in the MLB. And, with Arnett, who knows at this point. Heckathorn hasn't been what we thought he would be. He just hasn't shown the secondary stuff to be more than a #3-4. But, specifics aside, we really, really cheaped out outside of the 1st round this past draft. That's part of the reason our system is where it is.

Really good work colbyjack! I appreciate all this stuff, just so I have an idea on what the draft will be like. Any chance that we see a Wil Myers type fall for Archie Bradley? We've seen guys fall out of the top 10 down to the 3rd round before. Also, a guy I really like is Michael Kelly. Velocity isn't everything, but good lord can that kid throw hard. I'd feel really good about getting him too.

No. Saying "how bad our minor league system is" paints an accurate picture. And it is bad. We might get some decent innings out of our pitchers, but there isn't a single person in the system who has a good shot at becoming more than a mid-rotation starter. Jim Callis said we had the worst system in baseball pre-gutting the system (I disagree before the system) and Kevin Goldstein summed up the system by saying, "let's not talk about it." Don't get the wrong impression. I wouldn't have done the Lawrie-Marcum deal, but the Greinke deal was such a coup that the Brewers would have been crazy not to pull the trigger. And if you combined the deals, I'd do both at the same time. But that doesn't mean that we can't talk about a lacking approach to developing elite minor league talent. When other teams went for high ceiling high schoolers in the 2010 draft and paid them, the Brewers drafted guys like Jimmy Nelson, Tyler Thornburg and Matt Miller. Those are nice prospects, but the highest ceiling in that list is a #3 and one of those is almost assuredly a reliever. Let's go back 1 year and look at the draft:1. Eric Arnett - He was a good pick at the time, but just hasn't worked out. No complaints here, since he had a #2/flirting with ace type ceiling.1a. Kentrail Davis - Done well in the minor leagues, good pick.1a. Kyle Heckathorn - Fireballer with substantial ceiling.2. Max Walla - Toolsy HSer. Hasn't worked so far, but a breakout candidate.2. Cameron Garfield - Toosly HS catcher. Could improve in Low A and still has ability.3. Josh Prince - Low ceiling college SS.4. Brooks Hall - Bonus baby who throws mid-90's gas from a 6'5" frame. The kind of guy we should be picking here every single year. 5. D'Vontrey Richardson - Breakout candidate who is a legitimate 20-20 CFer. Has that draft worked out well? Not yet. Walla, Garfield, Hall, Richardson, Heckathorn, and Davis all have legitimate breakout potential and Arnett could figure it out. Whether it works out well or not, there's clearly impact MLB potential all throughout the first 5 rounds. In 2010, we put all our eggs in the Dylan Covey basket. When he didn't sign, we spent the lowest amount on our draft in 2010. That's not how we develop our system. Hopefully, we see Melvin return to 2009 form in 2011, but I don't see how we are somehow being "miserable" by noticing what is a potentially serious flaw in the Brewers' management philosophy.

Are the Brewers allowed to offer Saito arbitration after the season? If he's type A again we could get a 1st/2nd rounder and a supplemental pick.

How does Lindor at 12 and Goodwin at 15 sound? We get better defensively, really toolsy, and address the two spots vacated by the Greinke trade while not reaching for either. Then we can go after some high quality HS pitching later in the draft (especially because the upper minors have a good mix of sleepers with upside). Any guys we should be looking at in the 2nd or 3rd round?

In 2010, he was +1.3 WAR. That was virtually equal to Hardy and better than Renteria, Orlando Cabrera, Escobar, Cedeno, Theriot, Brendan Ryan, etc. I was no big fan of getting Betancourt either (though seeing the over-reaction to him he's quickly becoming one of my favorites), but to label him based on his 2 worst seasons (out of 6) just isn't fair. The guy's performed well enough to hold down a starting shortstop job in the major leagues since he was 23. That says something. So we are ignoring 2 horrible years and cherry picking the best one? Seems kind of shortsighted. Will Betancourt likely be somewhere around what Escobar was worth last season? Yeah. Is that still really mediocre? Yes. No reason we shouldn't try and get someone better.

Grady Sizemore is going nowhere. He was one of the most valuable players in baseball and is still young. No way they part with him for someone like Rivas. It'd take a very, very good offer for them to even consider it.

I think that's my feeling as well. If we are really going for it, why would we go in to the season with an iffy piece in the puzzle. If he was above average at the plate or with his glove and bad at the other, I'd be a little more at ease. It sounds like he's not good at either and that's what I'm worried about. There has to be something we can do for a year that can give us a better option. Who's out there? Rentaria still available? Yes he is available. And right now, we are probably somewhere between an 87 and 90 win team. That means the 1-2 wins that a Renteria could give us not only come on the cheap (since he hasn't gotten a single good offer), but they could be the difference between sitting at home in October and making the playoffs. And ask the Giants about what making the playoffs can do for your payroll, since they anticipated a $20 M boost from their WS win. I'm still holding out hope that we cut Betancourt immediately and someone else picks him up so that we don't have to pay him $400k of his remaining salary. It's not likely, but it's possible. If we had a guy like Renteria to pair with Dickerson and Lucroy (each of whom have upside), then I'd feel much better about the bottom 3rd of our lineup. Thankfully, we have maybe the best set of hitting pitchers I've seen in a long time. Greinke and Gallardo can mash.

Well, if we are going to throw in offense (where Young is good and Betancourt is still awful), we may as well throw in salaries. Betancourt makes $4M and has a $2M buyout, but only costs the Brewers $3M. While it's unknown exactly how much of Young's salary we'd have to pay, him making $16M for the next 3 years makes him much less valuable than Betancourt. Which is amazing because Betancourt is the standard for baseball futility.

Zack is the kind of guy who is going to want to play here for a year and see how he likes it. Melvin can't just throw him a bunch of money and make him sign on the dotted line. The best thing we can do to keep Zack around is support him as fans and extend everyone possible. The longer we keep Shaun Marcum, Rickie Weeks, and Prince Fielder around the longer Zack will want to stay. DM's pitch to him would be that through 2015 the Brewers would have Braun, Gallardo and any of those 3 to build around.

It was a thought. And, no, he's not Ozzie Smith or anything defensively, but he's better than Yuniesky.Actually, I don't think so. We can't really know for sure because defensive stats aren't perfect and because Young hasn't played SS in 2 years, but defensive runs saved puts him at -31 during 2009 and 2010 at 3B. I don't want to say putting Young and SS is like putting Prince Fielder at SS, but at this point saying it's like putting Ryan Braun at short isn't really that far off base. The guy isn't just "not Ozzie Smith" - he's horrible.

Good points all the way around. Going 50 prospects deep with the Royals system is tough, but with the Brewers, it's a whole different animal. Good work. As for your #4, I'm going to add 2006 to the list of problems too. Picks 1, 2, 3, and 5 are no longer with the organization and Evan Anundsen isn't on the Power 50. In general, I think the P50 doesn't value ceiling enough. Which is why my top 20 looks like this:1. Mark Rogers2. Cody Scarpetta3. Zach Braddock4. Wily Peralta5. Kyle Heckathorn6. Kentrail Davis7. Hunter Morris8. Tyler Roberts9. Jimmy Nelson10. Tyler Thornburg11. Amaury Rivas12. Scooter Gennett13. D'Vontrey Richardson14. Caleb Gindl15. Logan Schafer16. Eric Arnett17. Matt Miller18. Cutter Dykstra19. Cody Hawn20. Erik Komatsu The guys who didn't make my list and made the P50's top 20 (Taylor Green, Brandon Kintzler, Mike McClendon, Khris Davis and Eric Farris) are all lighter on ceilings. Also, why is Scarpetta behind Rivas? A great 1-2 punch with his fastball and curveball combined with a FIP of about 3.2 at 21 in the FSL screams far more potential for big league impact than Rivas, and he's having success at levels roughly 2 years younger.

Hate Betancourt all you want, but you still need competent bats on the bench This is exactly why we hate Betancourt. Personally, we are right in the area of team skill that an extra asset or two increases our playoff odds substantially. That's why I like the Saito signing so much. So, I'd go out and get what I can. Any of the elite SSs on the market, whether it's O-Cab or Renteria or whoever, would be a massive upgrade over Betancourt. Lastings Milledge is the kind of utility OFer that I'd like to see brought in to provide depth at the corners. He has long term upside too.

I read, "the Brewers have the worst system in all of baseball" as "the Brewers have the worst collection of minor leaguers right now in all of baseball". Maybe that's me reading it incorrectly or maybe I'm naive. I don't see the "we have lots of guys who could fill out a bench/bullpen" argument as a reason to move the Brewers' system up in the rankings. Guys you mention as possibly valuable players like Schafer, Gindl, Rivas, etc. etc. are the kind of guys that are in every organization. To first approximation, they are replacement players. No real value here. Farm systems are measured based on the above-average regulars they produce - not everyone has to be a star, but mentioning 15 bench players, fringe starters or reliever doesn't improve the system. I agree with you that Callis isn't without his biases - they guy hails from Chicago, of course he isn't all over any Milwaukee product. Whether the Brewers actually have the 30 best farm system in baseball is true or not is subject to opinion. We are probably just in the bottom tier of systems, which could be anywhere from 24-30 or so. And I agree with you that guys like Callis and KLaw tend to overrate Red Sox prospects (either to sell to the Red Sox/Yankees fanbases or because those are the guys who are talked about most). The point of all of this is that I don't think we can just give the Brewers credit for having a better minor league system than they do because they've developed talent. First, the system is top heavy with pitching, and the Brewers have developed 1 capable MLB pitcher they drafted since Ben Sheets. So, if we are really considering how teams develop talent, I'd actually say the Brewers would suffer in rankings. Second, the guys who we developed were elite prospects - Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Gallardo, Hardy, Escobar, Lawrie, LaPorta, etc. etc. were all major signings or top draft picks. By the way, I actually think that after two top 15 picks, the Brewers are a few breakout seasons away from a top 15-20 type system. I think all of these guys could explode on the scene:Max WallaD'Vontrey RichardsonCody ScarpettaBrooks HallCameron Garfield That's some upside right there, and if just 2-3 of those guys show up in a big way, the Brewers will be much better off come 2012.

Why? What does the past 5-7 years have anything to do with the Brewers' current farm system? I guess I could see the stance that the Brewers have done a good job developing talent, so they might get a little more out of this group of prospects than, say, the Pirates, but that has nothing to do with where the farm system currently stands and should have no impact on the ranking. You aren't ranking the organization, you're ranking the players within the organization. I'm not surprised he's this low on the system. He sees Rogers, Scarpetta, Peralta and Heckathorn as bullpen arms. And it's not like we have a big time position player prospect, just a lot of guys who are sleepers. He didn't see Brett Lawrie as a 2B, thought Jake Odorizzi was a fringe top 100 guy, and didn't like Jeffress based on character concerns. I think the system isn't that barren or broken, personally. A few big years from sleepers like Richardson, Walla, Robers and Morris on the position side gives us guys with tools doing well. A few good years at AA for Peralta, Heckathorn, and Scarpetta changes their appearance from relievers to starters. A good year in Nashville for Rogers changes the book on him. Two picks in the top 15, used well, give us some high ceiling players. These things are cyclic. The Royals went from No. 10 farm system to "best farm system anyone's ever seen" according to Kevin Goldstein, and they did it in one year. No reason the Crew can't put themselves back into the top 20 with a good season.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12616 The scouting reports are members only, but the rankings are available to all: Here are the 2 available reports on Rogers and Scarpetta: I think Goldstein's assessment of the system, overall, is both harsh and accurate. We don't have much impact MLB talent, but have plenty of guys who can fill out the back end of a rotation, bullpen, and bench. Thankfully, if everyone gets extended, we won't need any impact starters.

Hmmm. Going into the year I was worried about the possible Carlos Gomez black hole going into 2011. Rick Ankiel going to Washington pretty much put the FA market away, and I was thinking I'd have to settle for another year of awesome defense, 3 pitch strikeouts, and annoying bunting from Gomez. Then I checked on Dickerson more in depth. Bill James, the eternal optimist, projects 300 PAs and a .271/.363/.422 triple slash line, adding up to a wOBA of .354. For the record, that's higher than the Boston Red Sox or New York Yankees team wOBA and a huge upgrade over the Brewers 2010 staff (even with Jim Edmonds incredible line). And would rank tied for 4th among team CF wOBA. As for our SS problem, as bad as Betancourt is, he projects to produce about as well as Escobar. Would I rather have Edgar Renteria? Sure. Would the 2 marginal wins Renteria provide be huge? Yep. Will our SS be worse than last year? I doubt it.