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One issue I haven't mention, but is relevant is that each person has a different pH of their urine. Women tend to have lower than men, but their is a range when both sexes overlap significantly. When discussing what happens to a specimen when it is not handle properly we need to realize the pH difference can lead to very different effects. Bacterial flora may be more or less likely to appear, while degradation of the sample could be similar. In the extreme case you could have less bacterial growth, but more degredation. So while they look for bacterial growth we don't know the quality of the sample if there is minimal bacterial growth detected. We just know that there isn't an issue due to bacteria.

Is the 18 (or whatever the number was) FedEx locations an exaggeration The kinko's "merger" has lead to a huge increase in "manned" FedEx locations. Also, Mitchel Field should have a 24/7 location. If I remember you pretty much have to pass the airport if you are going to Kenosha.

Exactly. Perhaps someone could set me straight, but as far as I know with my limited scientific knowledge, there should be no way that human urine could degrade into synthetic testosterone The test only measures the weight of a molecule with a small error. Anything with similar weight will appear as synthetic T. (All 140 lb women are not the same). If a larger molecule degrades it can have a degradation product the same size as synthetic T and make it seem like their is more than normal (if you cut off Roseanne Barr's arms and legs you don't get Paris Hilton). Not saying that he's guilty, but let's be real, Braun is a smooth character to begin with- I'd bet he's been tweaking that news conference for weeks with lawyers/PR people. With that kind of preparation, the guy could sell ice to Eskimos. So you think because Braun handles himself well that he's obviously capable of lying and probably did. Okay....

FWIW, I just found out today that my Mom is really good friend's wife Laurenzi's wife, and was at his wedding. So she knows him and his family really well. So your mom is best friends with the wife of a cubs fan? Isn't that sufficient grounds to ban PrinceEatMeat?

i guess the belief by MLB is that testing is not a deterent, but a means to eventually catch a player since all players cheat.

i think there is ample possibilities that simply misshandling the sample in the way that has been reported could have lead to a questionable test. i think adding intentional tampering with the specimen is past what the evidence indicates. The internet affords people the opportunity to behave outrageously without anyone being held to a higher standard. While it seems like there's nothing personal in the attacks, having everyone know you were the one who collected the sample and being under a digital microscope is very personal for the collector. I can walk away from this confident Dino just made procedural errors, i don't feel confident we know anything that would suggest malice and intent to tamper with the sample. i love a good conspiracy theory, but this just doesn't pass the smell test.

I honestly was not trying to scream conspiracy. I just don't know how somebody who has been the collector for so long does not know something like that. Well we haven't been given the right information. Yeah he could have collected samples for 7-8 years, but what if he only did 1 run a year because he wasn't the main point person. If he doesn't do this routinely it doesn't matter how many years he's done it as he would still be inexperienced. Saying he's done it for years and not addressing the frequency or amount ('Hundreds of times' or 'many times each year') means that he wasn't doing it often (IMHO).

The circling of the wagons by USADA, WADA, Dick Pound and every other anti-doping personality with no dog in the fight (or any more access to the facts than you and I) is totally predictable. To them any questioning of drug testing IS their fight. Unfortunately, MLB circling the wagons is also very predictable -'Nothing is wrong with the system (except the decision by the arbiter)'; 'The collector did nothing wrong (ignore the arbitrators decision)'. Seems like the only direction MLB cares to attack is the arbitrator. Makes them look like tools considering the guy has been working on baseball related issues for years. It seems that MLB has determined that the integrity of the testing program >> Ryan Braun's integrity. I am hoping we start to get some calls for the leak of the information to be identified. MLB has no interest in finding the answer, but that would really put them on the defensive if someone in the MLB offices leaked the information, especially if initially MLB was looking to accept Ryan's argument (before the leak) and the leaker didn't want Ryan to "get away with it."

Let's assume this was not a false positive and the sample tested in the lab actually had the elevated T:E ratio. Is it possible for a normal sample to change into one with a high T:E rate just by being left out in a non ideal temperature for a day? A high T:E can occur if you have: 1) normal levels of E and elevated T; 2) normal levals of T and reduced levels of E; or 3) elevated T and reduced E. In the case of a sample that has not been stored/treated in the correct way you can easily have an issue where the E levels are below normal due to differential degradation. You can also have 1 or 3 if another component of the Urine degrades and one of it's degradation products overlaps at the same place as T. I don't know the exact details of the test they use, but most mass spec types of experiments rely on size of the molecule and landmarks in the testing sample to validate sizing. We know that not all molecules have the same stability. A common cellular component that is highly unstable is RNA. I have seen data to show that the RNA in a cell begins degrading within minutes of drawing a blood sample into a tube. In fact without proper stabilization and protection of the RNA using a highly specific solution, RNA is useless after a few hours at room temperature. Many of the molecules in our body have very short "lifespans" once removed from the body. Many of these are different so it is not clear that you would see T and E degrading at the same time. In addition, sitting in a car for a long drive or other extended periods of time at elevated temperature can change the kinetics in unknown/unexpected ways. Clearly there is a big issue if the sample was not stored/handled correctly. I don't have specifics for this instance, just enough doubt based on knowing that all of these laborious criteria that are in place are there for specific reasons relating to reliability and accuracy. From what I've heard I don't even like the way that the urine samples are collected right now for MLB steroid testing. Ideally the collector should have a large insulated container with ice packs already in place. Within a fixed period of time (10 minutes is more than enough time to code the sample and record what code is associated with what player) the sample is placed in the container after being "drawn". Once all samples are collected the container should be sealed and a pick up with FEDEX arranged. The container should be picked up by FEDEX while still at the teams facility in the presence of the collector, a team representative, and/or a union representative. The only real difficulty would be timing a FEDEX pickup to the sample collection so that several people aren't "guarding" a box for several hours. That shouldn't be so difficult to make this an undue burden on any party. As far as the "collector" goes in Braun's case, a caller on MLB.com pointed out that it may be a woman since the son was brought along. The woman can't observe/verify the collection process, but the son can.

2. Treated like a nuclear weapon in Montreal, documented relentlessly One of the key criteria for getting a laboratory accredited is having documentation of the entire process. You have to have a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP). Clear documentation of every important step/condition. Clear criteria for handling deviations from the SOP and ways of handling such a deviation or throwing out the sample because of the deviation. The process must be handled exactly the same every time or within certain acceptable parameters or it is considered deviating from the standard procedure. If there isn't a clear outline of how that lab handles the deviations then they would never be accredited. Now there are deviations from procedure that can't be anticipated, but usually as part of accreditation you must outline how you handle such unknowns. Why is this important? Because the validity of the test has only been proven under the exact SOP and procedures that are being reviewed for accreditation. As PEbadger nicely explained, False positives and False negatives are only know under the SOP, not under conditions that deviate from the SOP. That is why it is so important to follow the procedures. While we know that there may be a .001% false positive rate under the SOP. Deviating from the SOP, as happened in this case, could raise it to 10% or 50% or something substantial that is completely unknown because the test has never been done on samples treated in the same way. In this case it's "just" Braun's reputation, in the clinical setting it can destroy someones life (I was involved in a case several years ago where a women had a full hysterectomy and had her breasts removed because a reputable laboratory determined she had a BRCA1 mutation known to lead to breast and ovarian cancer. My lab actually found that she did not have the mutation and the woman has subsequently taken legal action against the testing lab). In the diagnostic area the process has the penultimate importance because you ONLY know what the parameters of the test (accuracy, false positives, false negatives) under the exact conditions outlined in the SOP. For Braun the sampling process failed and MLB has a major loophole they need to close. It would be in their best interest to make sure their is a tighter and better SOP in place for acquiring the sample from the individual and getting it to the lab. If the MLBPA wanted I think they could file a lawsuit to invalidate the current testing plan because the SOP for collection has not been linked to the laboratory testing SOP and that any findings are invalid using the current testing process. One thing that occurred to me during Braun's press conference is that they should test at least 1 non-athlete at the same time and as many as 50% non-athletes at the same time so that there are samples of unrelated parties included in the process (say collect 10 players and 5 front office or office personnel). That way if there is a question of tampering in the future only the collector knows who is a player and who is a non-player. Any downstream tampering could likely hit a non-athlete. The way that it is now any tampering will implicate a player and lead to a perception that the person is guilty. Sharon in reception testing positive for Testosterone might cause one to pause at the validity of the tests or that special sauce she puts on her hamburgers.

Star Chamber 0 Ryan Braun 1

I don't even believe it's technically about "integrity". People want a story NOW. Not when facts are hashed out, not when everything can be ultimately verified. These guys are for the most part bloggers. They aren't reporters anymore. They are paid for their immediate opinions and reactions. Someone will eventually write a detailed story about what happened, but that will take too long. This will have passed in interest. He is a baseball player from Milwaukee, ESPN will forget he exists as soon as Lin has another big game. Bingo. Nicely said. Truth and fact are often the first victims of blogger "journalism". The whole story will come out at some point, but everyone will have moved on to the next big market 5 minute flash in the pan.

There are a very limited number of ways in which a party to an arbitration can challenge an arbitration award in court. There are both statutory (for example, the Federal Arbitration Act) and any number of common law grounds for making an argument along those lines. and, unfortunately, the law is vague enough that someone with deap pockets who wants to "fight on" can find lawyers who can make enough of a case out of anything that this will wind it's way through the courts. unfortunately our legal system is slow. At this point i want to hear what Attanasio has to say. is he going to side with his country club friends against an uppity employee or does he defend his employee against his friends. If we do ever hear from him He'll probably try to stear a middle course. depending how this proceeds that will either piss off both sides or seem the mediator. I'd defend my employee, but i'm not a member of the country club so i don't have that pressure.

At some point in this process MLB had to become aware of the problem with chain of custody, possibly from day 1, and yet they decided that they had to press the case anyway. I have little doubt that they though that they would win anyway. What does that tell you about the general integrity of the system? The chain of custody, I think, is the minor issue. I think MLB is more concerned that an impression gets out that the results of the test can be effected by a slight delay in getting the sample to the testing lab. That leads to questioning what happens if FEDEX loses a package for a couple of days. While there isn't a chain of custody issue if they still have the package, there is definitely an issue with the handling of the package that could lead to a compromised sample. Any irregularity in the process can now be questioned and other players who test positive have ways of raising doubt about the accuracy of a test. As I said earlier, it would be better for MLB to come to agreement on guidelines of how long a sample can be "in transit" to the testing agency before it is considered compromised. That would give them some cover in the future so that similar challenges can't be used. If they just stick their heads in the sand and claim Braun got off on a technicality they are simply laying the groundwork for additional challenges in the future.

I don't think it's the only reason though. Breaking that procedure allows you to call into question the abnormally high test and Braun's subsequent and previous test. Without the chain of custody issue, those arguments lose weight. Calling it a technicality is an attempt to diminish the result. Exactly. And the other samples that showed high levels makes it clear that the samples were compromised. I doubt that Braun's group just went in and said "the tester didn't follow protocol so Ryan is innocent". They clearly swayed the arbitrator that the other samples that also showed elevated T from the same day is a clear indication that chain of custody lead to a COMPROMISED sample. The arbitrator may have agreed that the issue was not simply that the tester didn't follow protocol, but that the tester didn't follow protocol and multiple samples had abnormal readings. Braun's was probably just the worst. In the absence of poor performance of 2 other samples would the arbitrator still have sided with Braun? Maybe, but I'm glad we will not have to worry about that.

5th worst off season according to Wall Street Journal I'm devastated. I can't wait to see the annual baseball offseason review at the Food Network. I hope they don't trash us too....

Here's an image of urine and urine plus steroids. http://aston.chem.purdue.edu/files/images/research/steroids.png Notice the small peaks and their relation to other peaks. Now realize this is one of the better images you will see. This is also a well handled sample. I can't pull a picture of a mistreated sample, but the other peaks degrade and can co-localize to the peaks you are trying to measure. Here is an image of rabbit urine from an untreated rabbit and one that has been given a chinese herbal medicine. http://www.phcog.com/articles/2011/7/27/images/PhcogMag_2011_7_27_177_84219_u5.jpg Notice all of the other peaks that show up just from ingesting an herbal medicine. Notice the waivy baseline. What no testing agency/laboratory wants you to know is that reading mass spec output is the same as reading fortunes from tea leaves. Under any circumstance you can find what you want to hear/know.

IIRC all of these tests are run on a mass spectrometer. You can easily have metabolic/degradation of other molecules in the sample that would overlap with the position where Testosterone is supposed to be located. In this example they were using an unusual T:E ratio indicating an issue. T and E degrade at different rates. A sample could easily show a dramatic altering of the T:E ratio depending on how it was handled in a short period of time. I work with DNA all the time and it is pretty stable under varied conditions, but proteins and other small molecules can degrade within minutes under the wrong circumstances. Chain of command is definitely an issue. How they even tested the sample is beyond me. Clearly they need to change the policy that any sample that is not sent within X hours of collection will not be tested because it has been compromised by handling. I don't expect ESPN or their idiotic commentators to understand the subtlety of mishandling a sample can lead to an erroneous result so let's not expect them to admit their failure... The only thing that matters is NO SUSPENSION.

Interestingly, Bill James has him putting up a .285/.350/500 slash line, and roto champ a .289/.351/.489 slash line. Zips isn't quite as generous, .278/.340/.476, but no matter how you slice it, he's going to be just fine in the middle of the order. Stop with the irrelevant stats. How many RBIs will he get? Not nearly as many as prince and we all know that's the only thing that matters.

If Braun is cleared i don't expect MLB to make any announcement. they will simply notify Braun and he/his people will call a press conference. the last thing MLB wants to do is to officially address an issue that is just a rumor. The best way to stop leaks like this in the future is for MLB to neveraddress them directly.

Mat Gamel will be a better 1B than Ron Roenicke is a manager. So above replacement level. I think Matt will be a Sean Casey type of 1B with decent average, less power, a 2B machine and good OBP.

One trade by Theo and he's already done better then Hendry during his entire Cubs career........

If Braun is taking meds for a condition and that caused the testosterone reading then MLB could be in big trouble if they release any information about Ryan's health without his approval. Their best response would be to announce that he has not failed a drug test and any rumors to the contrary are inaccurate. They should also state emphatically that Due to state and federal regulations that protect private medical information MLB will not comment on this any further. If I was Braun I would just keep my mouth shut and let the rumors of a STD play out. No need to explain himself if MLB clears him. It's really none of our business.

If every season was 2430 games for every team then your 95.8% statistic would actually mean something, since they only play 162 games each it isn't anywhere close to accurate. To clarify, 95.8% is the average accuracy of each 162 game schedule for the 30 teams, not the accuracy of all games played in 2011. the 96.06% accuracy is the average for 5 years of all 30 teams using a 162 game schedule for each team, each year. 162 games is nowhere near a large enough sample for Pythagorean records to be very useful. i'm quite comfortable using a metric that is 96% accurate in the right context. in fact i judge what metrics to use and how to use them mostly on their accuracy, not on wether they give me an answer that supports my hypothesis or my bias.

Not sure why people are complaining here. The Cards made an offer that was way below market value. Why wouldn't that be an insult? What was the market value at the time of the offer? Lots of things we "purchase" have clear market values that we can estimate - stocks, real estate, cars, etc. Real Estate is somewhat dicey, but there is a ton of information that is public that can lead you to an estimate of market value. A personal services contract for someone in Pujols case is really not easy to determine or know. The fact that he got 10/$254M tells you what the value was at the time he finally signed, but doesn't mean anything about the market value when the Cards made the offer. It's easy in hindsight to say the offer was way below market, it takes some work to know for sure if it was at the time.