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Eye Black

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Everything posted by Eye Black

  1. Eye Black
    Thanks for sharing this, and I agree that you’d like to see the contact rate a little higher. Luckily, a low contact rate alone isn’t guaranteed to be a death knell, and there are a few outliers in terms of players that can produce big time value with a lower contact rate. One notable example that comes to mind is Fernando Tatis Jr. who had an even worse 67.2% contact rate during his monster 2021 season which included 42 home runs. One plate discipline stat that’s slightly more favorable to William Contreras is swinging strike rate. If you do the same query of 350 plate appearances from last season, the younger Contreras ranked 40 spots from the bottom in SwStr% at 14.0%. Some notable names he finished better than included Nick Castellanos (17.0%), Salvador Perez (16.9%), Jeremy Peña (15.7%), Luis Robert (15.2%), Nelson Cruz (15.0%), Bryce Harper (14.8%), Byron Buxton (14.6%), Julio Rodriguez (14.4%), Rafael Devers (14.2%). One spot better than Contreras was Dansby Swanson (13.9%) who was in the midst of having a career season offensively. William even finished ahead of brother Wilson (14.4%) in swinging strike rate. Plate discipline is obviously a crucial part of the equation, but as long as he’s barreling the ball and doing damage when he is making contact I think he’ll end up proving to be a valuable offensive threat.
  2. Eye Black
    The Baseball America trade reaction podcast is a great listen, and covers a lot of angles of the transaction. It’s overwhelmingly positive in favor of the Brewers. Was also listening to a Braves-centric podcast, Battery Power, and they are very high on Contreras. They maybe summed it up best of all, “the Brewers should feel like this is Christmas morning.”
  3. Eye Black
    I agree that Ruiz’s industry evaluations are probably a bit all over the place. I think it’s fair to assume the Brewers were another team that valued him more highly than the median when they acquired him back in July. I do think there are certain teams that place a high value on having a speedy centerfielder with good range. Here is A’s GM David Forst discussing Esteury Ruiz’s future in centerfielder: "I think he has the ability to play there every day in the big leagues between the speed and the range -- I think he has a chance to be really good there." He also confirmed that he expects Ruiz to start the season with the major league club.
  4. Eye Black
    Contreras has played just five career games against the Brewers (four of them at AmFamField), and in those 21 plate appearances he has a line of .333 BA / .524 OBP / 1.391 OPS. Meaningless small sample, but still a little awesome as well.
  5. Eye Black
    I’m just stunned the Brewers didn’t give up more here. Not another outfielder, not a prospect arm, not a competitive balance pick… just wow.
  6. Eye Black
    Except for the Cubs! Instead they’re now surrounded by Contreras brothers.
  7. Eye Black
    I am not among the highest on Sal Frelick, but I actually think his skill set pairs very well with a style of play that’s going to be coveted in MLB over the next decade. I am hopeful the recent rules changes increase the value and impact of players like Frelick. If he can get on base and cause havoc from there he will be an asset to the top of the Brewers lineup.
  8. Eye Black
    I’ve been intrigued by Abraham Toro for awhile, a switch hitter with a low strikeout rate that put up very impressive wRC+ numbers throughout his minor league career. For whatever reason things haven’t clicked yet in the majors, but he turns 26 years old next month which is often the age MLB hitters take a step forward. Also, it’s worth remembering that switch hitters take longer to adjust and develop at the highest level since they’re dividing plate opportunities across two different swings. Add the fact that he can fill the utility role, and it makes sense why he would be a Brewers target.
  9. Eye Black
    All good points here, Stearns indicating Gasser was someone they had targeted in last year’s draft seems pretty telling that they were much higher on him than you’ll see reflected in the industry’s prospect rankings. I hope they’re right, because if they can turn Gasser into a mid-rotation starter the trade will look much better a few years down the road. Ruiz seems like a wild card with still having a fairly wide range of possible outcomes for someone that’s 23 years old. There are aspects of his game to love (speed, recent OBP and contact improvements) and red flags (previous contact issues, reported trouble with velocity, low exit velos, defensive issues at 2B). I am very curious to see how he performs going forward, it could literally either of these cases: 1) the Brewers acquired him at the start of a massive developmental breakout, or 2) the Brewers acquired him at his peak value as he experienced a brief pop-up performance.
  10. Eye Black
    The Lamet thing is annoying, and makes the front office appear a little foolish. I get that it was a bit of a salary dump from the Padres end, but at least have a plan for incorporating a player that Counsell literally said this about yesterday: "I think you ask any hitter and anybody that's been on the sidelines watching him pitch when he's been good and it’s the best slider in baseball,"
  11. Eye Black
    Looking at Laureano’s home runs this season his swing seems geared towards AmFam Field. He has hit 16 balls that would’ve been over the wall in Milwaukee, but his season total is at just 10 HR (yes I realize half his games would be away).
  12. Eye Black
    Looking at Laureano’s home runs this season his swing seems geared towards AmFam Field. He has hit 16 balls that would’ve been over the wall in Milwaukee, but his season total is at just 10 HR (yes I realize half his games would be away).
  13. Eye Black
    Laureano is actually still arbitration eligible for three years after this season. The lost service time from his PED suspension resulted in him being under team control for an additional season.
  14. Eye Black
    Laureano is actually still arbitration eligible for three years after this season. The lost service time from his PED suspension resulted in him being under team control for an additional season.
  15. Eye Black
    Oops, I missed this post before commenting. Looks like you covered it already, seems likely someone among that pool is on the move.
  16. Eye Black
    Oops, I missed this post before commenting. Looks like you covered it already, seems likely someone among that pool is on the move.
  17. Eye Black
    Notable players that will be Rule 5 Draft eligible this coming December if they aren’t added to the 40-man roster: Brice Turang Felix Valerio Antonie Kelly Cam Devanney Thomas Dillard Abner Uribe Joe Gray Jr. Tristan Lutz Micah Bello Victor Castaneda Cam Robinson Taylor Floyd Carlos Rodriguez (OF) Justin Jarvis Eduardo Garcia I think it’s likely we see someone from that list traded this week. Also, 40-man roster guys who aren’t on the active roster are possibilities such as Ethan Small, Keston Hiura, and Mario Feliciano,
  18. Eye Black
    Notable players that will be Rule 5 Draft eligible this coming December if they aren’t added to the 40-man roster: Brice Turang Felix Valerio Antonie Kelly Cam Devanney Thomas Dillard Abner Uribe Joe Gray Jr. Tristan Lutz Micah Bello Victor Castaneda Cam Robinson Taylor Floyd Carlos Rodriguez (OF) Justin Jarvis Eduardo Garcia I think it’s likely we see someone from that list traded this week. Also, 40-man roster guys who aren’t on the active roster are possibilities such as Ethan Small, Keston Hiura, and Mario Feliciano,
  19. Eye Black
    We have started a thread for discussion of actual draft selections: Draft Pick Selection Thread
  20. Eye Black
    Baseball America’s Mock Draft 5.0 had Oregon State LHP Cooper Hjerpe listed for the Brewers at #27. They mentioned that analytically minded teams are high on Hjerpe, and I’ve heard and seen some similar buzz elsewhere. I think I could get on board with a potential Hjerpe selection.
  21. Eye Black
    Still a few weeks away, but I’ll throw out my random predictions for the Brewers first three picks… #27 - Justin Campbell, RHP, Oklahoma State #63 - Cade Doughty, 2B/3B, LSU OR Max Wagner, 3B, Clemson #72 - Hunter Barco, LHP, Florida I would like to see them end up with one of Doughty or Wagner.
  22. Eye Black
    Turang was a member of the Brewers Area Code Games team from Southern California which includes Brewers scouts serving as the coaches. Other players from the Brewers Area Code Games team they’ve drafted include Garrett Mitchell and Je’Von Ward. While they obviously didn’t draft him, Christian Yelich also played for the Brewers Area Codes team. The Brewers team is usually stacked because they have arguably the best geographic footprint of talent. Notable alumni for the Brewers team also includes Freddie Freeman, Giancarlo Stanton, Gerrit Cole, Marcus Semien, Nolan Arenado, Max Fried, Lucas Giolito, Dominic Smith, Jack Flaherty, Patrick Sandoval, and Hunter Greene [among others]. Here is last year’s Brewers Area Code Games Team Roster: For anyone curious here is a link to this year’s Brewers Area Code Team Roster
  23. Eye Black
    Ethan Small was ranked as Baseball America’s #45 overall draft prospect in 2019 before the Brewers drafted him at 28th overall. Looking into Justin Campbell a little more, Baseball America has him ranked as their #43 draft prospect. He’s a 6’7” RHP. For those interested in the draft I highly recommend a Baseball America subscription (they have a monthly option). Below are some of their notes on Campbell: Justin Campbell Oklahoma State RHP HT: 6-7 | Wt: 221 | B-T: L-R Commit/Drafted: Astros '19 (18) Age At Draft: 21.4 Campbell has hit and pitched for Oklahoma State in his first two seasons with the program, primarily serving as a designated hitter when he’s not pitching. He’s a career .313/.422/.448 hitter who’s shown solid strike zone discipline, but Campbell’s upside is likely higher on the mound. He pitched to a 2.57 ERA last spring over 13 starts and 84 innings, with a three-pitch mix that included a fastball that sat around 90 mph and two standout secondaries in a curveball and changeup. Campbell is listed at 6-foot-7, 221 pounds and could take off with increased velocity during his draft year.
  24. Eye Black
    Thank goodness nobody reached for Corbin Burnes in 2016 before the Brewers took him in the 4th round (111 overall). It is always possible the Brewers could go after an under slot deal early in order to spread their pool savings toward some later picks.
  25. Eye Black
    Keith Law released his updated Mock Draft today for The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/3317893/2022/05/19/mlb-mock-draft-jacob-berry/ He had Adam Mazur, RHP, Iowa mocked to the Brewers at #27, but in his comments he wrote, "I’ve heard the Brewers with Oklahoma State’s Justin Campbell as well, although he seems like a reach for the first."
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