Eye Black

Starting the thread for 2022 MLB Draft discussion. The order has been set for the 2022 MLB Draft (assuming they don’t alter the way the draft order is determined in the new CBA this offseason). NL Central teams listed in BOLD. 1. Orioles (52-110) 2. D-backs (52-110) 3. Rangers (60-102) 4. Pirates (61-101) 5. Nationals (65-97) 6. Marlins (67-95) 7. Cubs (71-91) 8. Twins (73-89) 9. Royals (74-88) 10. Rockies (74-87) 11. Mets (compensation)* 12. Tigers (77-85) 13. Angels (77-85) 14. Mets (77-85) 15. Padres (79-83) 16. Indians (80-82) 17. Phillies (82-80) 18. Reds (83-79) 19. A’s (86-76) 20. Braves (88-73) 21. Mariners (90-72) 22. Cardinals (90-72) 23. Blue Jays (91-71) 24. Red Sox (92-70) 25. Yankees (92-70) 26. White Sox (93-69) 27. Brewers (95-67) 28. Astros (95-67) 29. Rays (100-62) 30. Dodgers (106-56) 31. Giants (107-55) *--compensation for not signing 2021 Draft pick Kumar Rocker

In Daniel Norris last 5 appearances he’s faced 22 batters total and here’s his line over that stretch: 6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 6 BB, 7 SO

Yes, he was Rule 5 eligible this offseason which is one reason he’s a bit more expendable.

The 13th round thing is misleading. The Brewers spent big ($440,000) to sign Olson in the 2018 draft, and he’s still very young with good velocity. By comparison, Drew Rasmussen was a 6th rounder and signed for only $135k (yes, he had less leverage as a college arm). Olson was the 5th highest paid Brewers draft pick in 2018 behind only Turang, Gray, Bello, and Ashby. I am not going to lose sleep over it, and I am fine with the trade, but it’s worth understanding that developing into a very good major league pitcher is still well within the range of outcomes for Reese Olson.

I've seen several people say this. Olson hasn't shown much other than he walks a lot of guys. Am I missing something with him? Below is the FanGraphs write-up on Olson from last month. They ranked him the #6 prospect in the Brewers system, and since he’s only 21 they pointed out if he was in this past year’s draft they think he would’ve been as high as a mid-first round talent.

Bummed about the YouTube TV news because I was about to pull the trigger on switching to that option (currently have DirecTV). I really wish I could just pay for a version of MLB.tv that allowed in-market viewing of Brewers games.

The Marlins are reportedly calling up Isan Diaz. Genuinely happy for him, he was among my favorite prospects that have spent time in the Brewers system over the past decade.

One thing that stands out about Ray Black’s Triple-A numbers this season is he gave up 8 earned runs, including 6 hits and 3 home runs, over two appearances (1.2 IP) at Las Vegas (long known as a launching pad although they have a new stadium this season). If you remove those two outings in Las Vegas he has pitched 22.0 innings and allowed 5 earned runs on 13 hits and just 2 home runs. As noted earlier in the thread he also has a 14.74 K/9 ratio in Triple-A this season. I’d like to see him get a chance in the Brewers bullpen sooner than later.

They traded Mauricio Dubon for Drew Pomeranz to be a member of the bullpen for two months and below is the bullpen usage since he’s been in uniform... Thursday vs. A’s Bullpen enters 7th inning with a 3-1 lead. Guerra comes in to pitch for a 3rd straight day, something he hadn’t done all season. Gives up a run. Hader then comes in with a 3-2 lead, pitching for a third straight day, something he has never done in his major league career. Hader gives up 2 earned runs and Jay Jackson enters and gives up another earned run. Brewers lose 5-3. Friday vs. Cubs Bullpen enters game to start the 5th inning down 4-1. Jeffress pitches 1.1 innings and is charged with 2 runs. Alex Claudio finishes 6th inning. Jay Jackson pitches for a second straight day in the 7th inning of a 6-2 game and loads the bases before getting out of it. Drew Pomeranz enters in the 8th inning of a game the Brewers are down 4 runs. Saturday vs. Cubs Bullpen enters the game with one out in the 5th inning and the Brewers down 1-0. Matt Albers covers the rest of the 5th and all of the 6th inning after the Brewers have tied it in the top of the 6th inning. In the 7th inning Junior Guerra comes in for the 4th time in 5 days and gives up a run to put the Brewers down 2-1. Freddy Peralta comes in to start the 8th inning and walks three guys and gives up two more runs to go down 4-1 before giving way to Aaron Wilkerson to close out the inning.. So are they just easing Pomeranz in, or did they trade for two months of a guy that is going to get late inning mop-up duty in blowouts? I hope the former is the case, but at this point it seems concerning they would continue to overuse Guerra instead of giving Pomeranz a chance in a meaningful spot.

I didn't necessarily have high hopes for Dubon, but I am surprised they couldn't get more value for him then this trade. I appreciate that we can squint and hope these guys are more then what they've been (or at least the best version of what they've been in small windows), but I certainly wouldn't bet on either of them to serve as a significant difference maker down the stretch. It seems like if August waiver trades were still allowed this deal wouldn't have been made today.

Here is their Tweet on the trade...

Going into tonight’s game Christian Yelich has a home run every 9.035 at bats this season. That would rank 11th all-time in the history of baseball for a single season if he continues the same pace the remainder of the season (B-Ref Link). The current list is a combination of PED users and Babe Ruth... [pre]Rank Player (age that year) AB per HR Year 1. Barry Bonds (36) 6.52 2001 2. Mark McGwire (34) 7.27 1998 3. Mark McGwire (35) 8.02 1999 4. Mark McGwire (32) 8.13 1996 5. Barry Bonds (39) 8.29 2004 6. Babe Ruth (25) 8.48 1920 7. Barry Bonds (38) 8.67 2003 8. Barry Bonds (37) 8.76 2002 9. Babe Ruth (32) 9.00 1927 10. Sammy Sosa (32) 9.02 2001 11. Babe Ruth (26) 9.15 1921[/pre]

I think there are varying degrees of that theory. I would certainly never say MLB team X won’t trade with team Y, and I can’t think of any circumstances which would lead to that type of firm stance. I do think it is plausible that a front office would feel some pressure to “win the trade” if they are going to do repeat business with the team they just shipped away the league MVP to a year earlier, especially if it involves more high profile players. Maybe that thought is indeed a little out there and all of the executives now are able to robotically value players with zero consideration towards past results (not trying to be snide, this very well could be the case), but I also don’t think it shouldn’t be completely dismissed that the human element could seep into the back of their minds while evaluating offers from multiple teams. Ultimately are they most likely going to take what they deem is the best offer regardless of this history? I would assume yes. It is also probably a little premature to make any definitive conclusions regarding any of the players involved in the trade, including Yamamoto after two (very impressive) MLB starts. I genuinely hope Yamamoto continues his success, and would be perfectly fine with it being a trade which works out well for both sides over the long run.

For the Netflix crowd I highly recommend “Shot in the Dark”, it is the documentary TV series and is basically the real-life version of the movie Nightcrawler.

Richard Justice of MLB.com listed his 10 dark horse MVP candidates for 2018 which includes both Christian Yelich and Travis Shaw.

Yes, he did interviews at the fan fest event last weekend. He also did an interview with Barstool Radio that isn’t safe to post here, but you can find if you search for it on Twitter (warning, the host is extremely annoying, vulgar and lewd).

Newest article from Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs: Christian Yelich’s Arrow Is Pointing Up

Lathund’s post above (#348) is really spot on. If you’re someone who occasionally passes over the longer posts, I encourage you to take the time to go back and read it. It sums up nicely a lot of the thoughts I’m sure many of us have had about the recent moves.

To bad Gerrit Cole is no longer in the division, Yelich’s career line versus Cole: 9 hits in 17 ABs, 2 doubles, 3 HRs, 3 BB, 1.776 OPS. He has also excelled against some other notable pitchers including Max Scherzer (7–for-17, 2B, 3B, 2 HRs, 2 BB, 1.415 OPS), Jacob deGrom (14-for-32, 2 2Bs, 2 BB, .971 OPS), and Aaron Nola (6-for-16, 2B, 3B, BB, 1.125 OPS). He’s also 5-for-11 against Kershaw (all singles). All are extremely small sample sizes obviously.

Somewhat interesting... If you go to either Lorenzo Cain or Christian Yelich's Baseball Reference page, they are both listed as each others match as 2nd closest batter all-time in Similarity Score.

Nicely distributed batted ball approach (Career Percentages)... [pre]Pull% Cent% Oppo% 32.2 % 38.2 % 29.6 %[/pre]

I am not sure if this has been posted, but worth the read from Fangraphs: The Brewers Are Here I thought this was a fun fact... ...and there are plenty more, so check out the article.

Gee I hope not. Don't mess with success. Throw him in the lineup with the same swing and approach and naturally let a few more of those balls he hits wind up over the fence. We’ll see, I think there is a decent chance we will see them try it with him. This also reminded me that Barry Bonds was his hitting coach at one point which made me chuckle for really no reason.

Miller Park is a better offensive park than what he's used to. I would imagine that evens out some. Dan Szymborski said Miller Park is typically the 2nd or 3rd friendliest park to left handed hitters in MLB. He believes the Brewers will try to get Yelich to focus on more loft in his swing. Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs has had a couple articles on Yelich where he pointed out that Marlins Park really suppress left handed power. The ZiPs projection added a few home runs to Yelich’s 2018 projected total after the trade.

I’m with you on Lutz. If reports of his pre-draft 110-mph exit velocities are accurate he has a chance to be a difference maker with the bat.