RoseBowlMtg

I haven't had a Point in awhile do they still have these two slogans: "When you're out of Point you're out of town!" and "Point Beer: It's just not for breakfast anymore!"

rlu says: So you think how many AB with an unspecified amount of runners on is more descriptive than showing specific situations? So, Overbay's 11 AB with the bases loaded compared to 5 for Tracy is irrelevant? I just don't think a 4-11 stat vs a 0-5 stat shows as much as 187 AB's vs 183 AB's with the guy hitting .305 with 187 AB's and .240 with 183 AB's. .240 for 183 AB's is 44 hits .305 for 187 AB's is 57 hits Overbay has 13 more hits and 12 more RBI's but his slugging is 65 points lower. A larger sample is always better and this shows a huge differential in production with runners on which isn't factored into slugging. That's all I am saying. "Again, RBIs are a VERY poor stat to use, with regard gauging the relative offensive contribution of two players." batting ave with runners on is a very good stat imo and in this case it shows who has knocked in more runs while the slugging % would suggest otherwise.

katuluu states: I'm still trying to figure out how a difference of 4 solo home runs somehow equates to a difference of .071 of SLG. That argument just makes absolutely no sense. For ex: A solo HR is 4.000 slugging A single knocking in two runs is a 1.000 slugging. If each player had the same opportunity. 4 AB's, and runners on 2nd and 3rd one time and no runners all other times. The guy who hit the single produced two runs to one run for the solo guy even though the single hitter's slugging was .250 and the solo HR guy 1.000. End of game stats: Tracy OPS of 1.250 Overbay OPS of .500. This just shows the weakness of looking at one stat imo. Overbay's team won the game 2-1 but his OPS was much worse.

rlu states: Overbay Tracy RBIs 67 55 RISP 115 97 2B & 3B 7 3 Loaded 11 5 I was looking at the runners on which was very even: 187 v 183. One problem with risp it doesn't give you credit for knocking in a runner from first on a double but with a solo HR slugging doesn't factor RBI's. If you look at these RBI opportunities as the only ones Overbay knocked in runs at a 58.3% clip vs Tracy's 56.7%. A 515 slug v 444 slug does not show this. Your loaded stat is interesting since Overbay is batting .364 with the bases loaded v .000% for Tracy. Maybe the entire RBI differential is with the bases loaded since we know O has a grand slam which means his other 3 hits brought in a minimum of 7 runs. I just think runners on is a better gauge with these two. 187 v 183. Just by showing that Tracy is close to Overbay makes my point that the 515 v 444 slugging stat doesn't tell an accurate story. Interesting imo.

ennder states: I don't believe in RISP stats at all, I think they are completely meaningless, so I still don't think Overbay is more valuable simply because he happened to hit HR's when guys are on more often. I think you misinterpretted my point. I think OPS builds up solo HR's too much or more specifically slugging too much while knocking in runs with singles and doubles gets shunned. That being said, is someone with a 515 slg and hits .240 with runners on with only 55 RBI's so much better than a hitter with a .444 slug hitting .305 with runners on and 67 RBI's. And as for batting behind Counsell he up til a month ago was one of the best lead off hitters as far as getting on in MLB. I don't know where Tracy batted every time but I do know with same amt of AB's basically as Overbay with runners on he hit 65 points lower and that is why his RBI total is lower.

gregmag interesting post as always: I don't care at all about stats like RISP or BA with runners on, because they don't repeat. In fact, the guys I would target are ones who have great predictive stats -- i.e., OPS -- but have a bad year in terms of "production" stats. If the OPS is there, the production will come. I was not looking at these stats to see who we should have next year, I like to compare how players are doing for the year. The problem I have with OPS is someone like Chad Tracy who's OPS is 48 points higher than Overbay's is not better. Broken down: ..........obp/slug/OPS Tracy: .343/.515/.858 Overbay: .366/.444/.810 Tracy has hit 13 solo HR's and 9 with runners on Overbay has hit 9 solo HR's and 8 with runners on Tracy is hitting .240 with runners on Overbay is hitting .305 with runners on Tracy is hitting .328 with no one on Overbay is hitting .251 with no one on. The slugging % gives too much credit to solo HR's and doesn't take into account someone's struggles with runners on. Here is two guys with 183 and 187 AB's with runners on and the one who hits 65 points higher, knocks in more runs and gets on more often is considered worse when looking at the OPS because the other hits more solo HR's but knocks in 12 fewer runs. To me OPS is not a good barometer btwn these two hitters. It overrates Tracy and underrates Overbay.

I was curious how people rank stats they look at and how it changes for different types of hitters. Leadoff hitter obp first, Lee OPS? OK is that back on track?

rlu good response as usual: To use RBI's as an offensive measuring stick, you just HAVE to look at them relative to the number of runners that were available to hit in. Even Pujols would have significantly less RBI's in the 9 spot. Stats by themselves does not tell it all so when someone looks at Overbay as weak for a first baseman since his slugging % is .444 and you compare it to Chad Tracy who has hit 13 solo HR's and has a slugging % of .515. If you look at slugging as a barometer for success you haven't looked deeply enough since Tracy's batting ave with runners on drops by 88 points and Overbay's goes up 54. Incidently Overbay has had 187 chances to Tracy's 183. This to me shows who a more productive hitter is. risp is a good stat but getting a double with a runner on first should get more credit imo. There are three dominant first basemen in the NL and Overbay is right there with the rest even on an off year for him. Interesting. Hopefully GM's will recognize than this off season

I thought I would look at the NL first basemen who have started 100 games to see how their slugging % relates to their production. How important is slugging %? There are 10 NL first basemen who have started at least 100 games: slg: 1: Lee .665 2: Pujols: .632 3: Delgado: .573 4: Berkman: .520 5: Tracy: .515 6: Helton: .502 7: Johnson: .476 8: Overbay: .444 9: Casey: .427 10: LaRoach: .416 Now let's throw in their HR/RBI numbers: 1: Lee .665..41-99 2: Pujols: .632..39-108 3: Delgado: .573..38-104 4: Berkman: .520..19-66 5: Tracy: .515..22-55 6: Helton: .502..17-63 7: Johnson: .476..13-62 8: Overbay: .444..17-67 9: Casey: .427..9-54 10: LaRoach: .416..15-68 There are 3 first basemen who have separated themselves from the rest. The other 7 appear to be closer than their slugging % suggests: Now let's look at their ave. with runners on and empty: player: slg, HR, RBI, runners on/empty 1: Lee .665..41-99...315/.354 2: Pujols: .632..39-108...320/.354 3: Delgado: .573..38-104...307/.290 4: Berkman: .520..19-66...270/.316 5: Tracy: .515..22-55...240/.328 6: Helton: .502..17-63...283/.319 7: Johnson: .476..13-62...333/.256 8: Overbay: .444..17-67...305/.251 9: Casey: .427..9-54...318/.312 10: LaRoach: .416..15-68...250/.237 Of the bottom 7 here is their runners on/empty differential: 4: Berkman: -.046 5: Tracy: -.088 6: Helton: -.036 7: Johnson: +.077 8: Overbay: +.054 9: Casey: +.006 10: LaRoach: +.017 This explains why Tracy has only 55 ribbies while Johnson and Overbay have outperformed him even though their slugging % is so much inferior. Helton btw has a .333 11-43 at home and .271 6-20 on the road. So after the top 3, the slugging % only shows who hits more solo HR's (Tracy with 13) and doesn't look at how these first basemen produce. We have all seen Overbay struggle this year way too often for many of our hopes but after the top three his production is right there because he has hit better with runners on. Any thoughts:

Overbay has now been on base 7 out of his last 10 times. Wow! Little stat numbers are amazing!

Ajay states: I am thrilled that Overbay just went deep. But it still seems like he can only hit against the Reds. It would be nice if he did more damage against the rest of the league too. Let's see what Overbay's ave is vs the remaining teams on the schedule: ave/obp Houston: .313 /.333 Arizona: .417/.417 Houston: .313/.333 Cubs: .316/.440 Cards: .256/.326 Cin: .488/.560 Pitt: .235/.422 Just because he has had success against Cincy doesn't mean that's the only place.

Overbay has now been on base 6 out of his last 8 times up for you stat geeks!

Weeks ole' these are the growing pains waiting ahead for us. Make that play!

Come on Lyle score your second run for the team tonight!

Alright Jenks---It would have been nice seeing Harang from the stretch v Jenks! Alright let's score a bunch!

Good AB Lyle now let's score him!

Yeah that Billy Hall d is a liability!

Yeah a mediocre throw from the RF coming in on a one hopper would have only got him by two steps. I understand aggressiveness but that was a one hopper.

Yeah, that's right Donnelly take the RBI opportunity away from the guy who was 5-5 last night. Baaaaaad!

I am for Overbay because I want the best for the Brew Crew! Overbay gets hot increases his trade value and his walk last night changed his entire mojo. He put too much pressure on himself last night knowing he has crushed Claussen in the past even though he was slumping. The walk loosened him out. He will break out tonight which will take him for a hot finish which will increase his value. That imo is what will be best for the Brewers.

Way to go Crew! A total domination: Great starting pitching Great relief pitching! 0-0 Reds with risp! JJ and and Cirillo with ground balls in the right area Jenkins 5-5 Helms .312 Brady nice to have your hustle back. Tomo needs to be resigned imo. O's last walk will get him going!

Geoff thanks for the 5-5 that should help me in the first week of fantasy playoffs! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/roll.gif Whoo hooo! Great game Crew-

Way to go JJ! Jeff bring in a couple more! Nice 5th starter huh with Ohka?

Come on Rickie get in front of that ball! A shift is on that ball needs to be played and not by a back up backhand that goes under your mitt. Teach him coaches!

Miller had the pitch call low outside and the pitch missed middle middle and gone!