Thurston Fluff

I counted some games where he was replaced for defense. That would make some of his hits as a starter but only got a couple plate appearances count differently. If the arguemnt is he needs more plate appearances per game to improve I don't see how staring vs PH makes a difference if he only gets a couple at most. IF you go through the game logs and count games where he only had a couple PA's I think it gives you a better account of how he handles playing with limited plate appearances.

He seemed to perform very well when he started in the field and his extreme inability to get a hit coming off the bench brought down his overall numbers due his small sample size. I counted 23 plate appearances where he only had one or two appearances that night. Of those he got on base 9 times with one extra base hit. That hardly qualifies as bringing his numbers down. His pinch hitting actually brought his OBP up. I don't think he was getting enough at bats to adjust to how pitchers were pitching him. That is very possible. It is also equally possible he would continue to struggle with it for more than a couple weeks of regular playing time. All of which would be done while the Brewers are trying to win a division. Prove you can hit the pitch and you will get more time. I fyou can't in the amount of time allotted in the majors then go to the minors and prove it there. Until he can show he can hit those pitches he shouldn't be taking away playing time form players like McGehee who have outplayed him in roughly the same amount of AB's.

And BUC, are we in the hunt because we have a well built team, or is it because the division is painfully bad where 4 teams are with in 2 games of first? I don't know if it's painfully bad. It's the only division that has 4 teams above .500 and the worst team in the division would be 4th in either of the other two NL divisions. I think sometimes it's easy to equate bad with parity. The division has parity thus no team will run away with it. Of course no team pads it's record on Cellar dwellers like the Nationals and Padres either. Last year the Dodgers won their division but would have been in 5th place in the central. Does that mean they were not contenders last year? All in all I think any team above .500 and in contention for a division title regardless of division strength can legitimately be considered a contender.

I disagree. I think Gamel is the best option right now. Gamel was showing signs of improving and was much better when given regular playing time at 3B and should be expected to hit even better. I guess this is where we have to agree to disagree. More playing time would have likely exposed why he wasn't getting more. It is hard to believe his defense magically turned around nor did I see him hitting the inside pitches and he was still striking out at an alarming rate. Out of curiosity what signs of improvement are you talking about? Is it more or less a feeling you have or is there some sort of tangible thing you can put your finger on? In one of his last games Uecker said lets see if they throw and inside pitch to him because that is where he has trouble. They did and he struck out looking. I don't see that type of predictable outcome as improvement. Just more of the same.

I think Melvin is a good GM, but for some reason he just doesn't win Considering this is the second really terrible team he took over and took to the playoffs I think that is more than a little over stated. Melvin took over a horrible Rangers organization then proceeded to get the Rangers to the postseason three times - the only times the franchise has done so in its 48-year history. Now he took an equally horrible Brewers team to it's first playoff since 82 and has it in the playoff hunt once again. when judging a GM I think you have to look at how well he did under the circumstances he is working under. I think the Cubs GM did a horrible job of building that team yet they won the division the last two years. Melvin has done just what he said he could do here. He has a team that has been in contention for a playoff spot for a three years now and looking forward should be so several years to come. any team in contention for the post seaosn is in contention for a WS title which is all we can ask for. As far as making mistakes and handing out some bad contracts and making/not making trades I think any GM who is aggressive will do that. I am not one who thinks GM's should trade their players only when they have the highest value because that means you are trading them when they can help you the most. Nor do I advocate trading when their value is low because the relative value in return probably will give you less than the player could if he plays better than his current low value would get. Though sometimes change of scenery changes are good. I think trades should be done when a player is no longer in the long term plans regardless of their current value. Hardy should be traded this off season because he is no longer in the long term plans and will bring more in return than his short term production would. Hart should not because he is. To clarify I am defining long term as more than a year.

We need to lean a little more heavily on scouting for Mat Gamel. The recent stats for Counsell should be weighted a little more to make an educated guess at what we should expect from him, but you seem to be entirely dismissing anything before this year in your decision that Counsell is a better player Sometimes points get lost in threads that get this long so it isn't hard to miss one point out of many. I think at this point we may be talking past each other. I agree you have to use more than just this year's stats and have used more than just this season's stats in my reasoning. To your point about about scouting seeing him play is a big reason why I think Cousell a better fit right now. Not so much because Counsell is playing better than last year, which he is, but because Gamel is not. Granted we are not scouts just fans but apparently Macha and Melvin agree with our assessment. From what I've seen, as well as others here, have stated several times Gamel looks lost at times. He cannot handle inside pitches very well especially when he has two strikes on him. The stats merely backup what we have been seeing from the two of them so far. Counsell may not be a great solution but Gamel is even less so. Maybe all it will take is a month at AAA maybe more. However long it deos take if there are better options, and there are, he should not be in the majors. I'm not dumping on the prospects traded or Lopez, this just wasn't a necessary move because we already had McGehee and Counsell at 2B... I'm not sure why people keep turning that debate into Gamel vs McGehee... McGehee and Counsell being nicked up seem to be perfect platoon partners for this season. Gamel will hit, just because he stunk in part time duty doesn't mean anything in the grand scheme. The grand scheme is to win the division and make it to the playoffs for the second consecutive year. That means we have to win now. Not next year or even next month when Gamel learns to hit all the pitches. We need immediate results. The debate is between the best infield options today not who has the best chance to be a great player at some undetermined time down the road. Gamel at third and Counsell/ McGehee at second is not the best option today. It is Lopez at second and McCounsell at third.

Given arbitration is predicated on past contracts and last year was a very unusual year for free agents it's hard to tell what Lopez would get in arbitration next year. I am far from expert on the subject but last year almost all free agents got less than they would have a year earlier and most got less than if they would have accepted arbitration. It may very well be that players who accept arbitration would get less than past years. Lopez should not be considered an option at shortstop from all I've heard. With the Brewers on the hook for Hall anyway and Macha's penchant for letting the last man on the bench rot Hall seem like the perfect candidate for that role so Lopez's in/ability to play short is mute to an extent. He could do it in a pinch but really he would be next year's version of Tony Graffinino. He accepted arby and that actually worked out pretty well until he got hurt.

If anyone is saying that you can't use this season's stats, they would be mistaken. What is being argued is that all things should be looked at in context, and that Counsell's career tells us more about how good a hitter he is rather than the smallish sample of half a season. I agree with you. On the whole Cousell's career shows more than this year' stats. But if we are talking about how well he will do over the next month and a half I think the weight of current play goes up significantly. I am not using this season's stats to say Counsell is the better prospect nor am I saying he will continue to play well above his career norm. All I was saying is he is playing better than Mat Gamel now. Thus he should be playing ahead of Mat Gamel now. With that being the case and Gamel needing to play regularly it makes a ton of sense to send Gamel down to improve his game. To take it one step further if the team can improve even a little by making a small trade then it should so it. I think this trade made a good prospect who, at the moment, is the weakest link able to go down and work on not being the weakest link without harming the team in the process. The specific comment you are addressing was directed at Logan who said I really can't express in the proper words how I feel about a fan thinking that Counsell is a better hitting option than Gamel. This is just taking single season stats way to far. I think it fair to say he is saying I was wrong in using this season's stats to compare the two. I am using single season stats in a very narrow way because there is no better stats to use. Gamel has none to speak of at the major league level and less at AAA. As you correctly pointed out, when taking defense into accoun, Counsell only has to be marginally better than his career norms to make a reasonable assumption that Counsell is a better bet at the moment.

Gotta agree with bani. The umps are evaluated all the time. The Hardricourt rant was off base in that mistakes are not the same as arguing mistakes. You don't suspend players for errors so umps shouldn't be suspended for blowing a call. If they really suck they get fired just like everyone else. As far as Runge getting involved he was doing the exact same thing TH was defending Sveum for. Sticking up for his guy. The dude was a replacement ump clearly in over his head. He shouldn't have been there but he was and he was there for both sides. I still think it is more Brewer whining about anything not perfect instead of focusing on their own flaws. All this does is distract from the real issue of crappy play. Distractions and excuses are the last thing this team needs now.

Melvin used excuses instead of trading for a top level pitcher last year?

I can appreciate you taking the company line on this. I still think you are really mistaken in you belief in Counsell. . I really can't express in the proper words how I feel about a fan thinking that Counsell is a better hitting option than Gamel. This is just taking single season stats way to far. Lets see. I can't use this season's stats to see who is better but you can use AA and a handful of AAA stats and say definitively Gamel is better. I have as much trouble expressing my feelings about that as you do me using this years stats to see who is a better option for the next month. I don't see what Gamel has done to make you think he is better today. Certainly nothing he has done in the majors so far. His numbers in the minors are great but he only has about 120 ab's above AA. I don't know how anyone can say you can't look at this years numbers to see who is a better option then turn around and say the guy with 120ish ab's at AAA is better than an established veteran who is putting up better numbers than said prospect at the time. There is no more evidence that Gamel is ready to out hit Cousell than the numbers they have produced this season. I certainly think they are as, if not more, telling than AA numbers or a handful of AAA ab's. You can say he is going to be better but not he is better now. To bring this back to the trade I think this gives the Brewers the chance to have the best lineup which, at the moment, is Cousell/McGehee at third with Lopez at second. We get the production at the top of the order we really needed and Gamel learns to hit/lay off the inside pitches while working on his fielding and we get another year of better production out of him. All it cost us is two average prospects. This trade makes us better now and for the future.

He was a replacement ump. I don't understand why umps need vacation time when their season has 3 1/2 months of off time built in.

It already has. Gamel has a .812 OPS in July. That's 24 ab's. If you want to look at the last 24 ab's Cousell's got 7 hits and 5 walks vs Gamel's 6 hits and 3 walks. So even if Gamel did do well in that small a sample Counsell has done as well in the same sample size.

I think this whole team needs to stop looking everywhere but themselves. Have a little accountability.

Making that decision based on only this year's stats is really the wrong way to go. As opposed to making that decision based on 119 ab's in AAA or making it based on how well he did in AA or lower? Or are you basing it on his potential? He has the potential to be a much better option than Counsell but fact is Gamel has done nothing to show he is better at this point than Counsell is at this point. Counsell has been getting worse every month since May. I would say he has already started to regress. As soon as he regresses to Gamel's level it will be time to call Gamel back up. In July Counsell's OPS is .768 Gamel's was .743. I just don't see how there is any argument that Gamel is the better option until Counsell actually performs worse than Gamel has. So far the closest it's been was 25 points lower than Counsell. If Counsell's OPS drops lower than Gamel's best month maybe then it will be time to call him backup. Until then go with the player who actually put up better numbers.

I want a jitterbug. Then I want to get a pair of shoes with velcro straps instead of laces. Then I will be the envy of all octogenarians.

I agree with Hardy but Hart would be selling low. There really isn't a better alternative in AAA now and he is not terribly expensive. Combine that with relatively low trade value and the risk reward factor is not good. I think we will see Escobar as the starter next season and Hall/Lopez (or other) as bench players. which is why I tend to disagree with FTJ on Lopez's value next year. He may not be cheap but not much more expensive than Counsell was two years ago. If the team has Gamel, Solome, and Escobar making the league minimum it can afford an expensive veteran bench. In fact I would argue it would be beneficial to have a good deep bench with that type of youth playing.

You can't justify playing Gamel over Counsell? Counsell has a better average, OBP and slugging % than Gamel. How can you justify Gamel over Counsell? Especially when you take into consideration Counsell is more likely to be able to handle irregular playing time better. Gamel may have the better overall skilllset and the better career but as of now the numbers don't lie. Counsell has been better. I guess if both McGehee & Counsell continue to vastly overplay their career norms, then yes not playing Gamel & now sending him to AAA has been the move to get the best team possible out there. When they do start to regress then call Gamel up. Until then he, and the organization, are better off letting him work on his pitch selection in AAA. I think we have the same situation at third as we did last year. It is a spot with no clear cut starter in it. I think with teams in a playoff hunt you have to handle those spots with the hot hand a little to maximize it's production. This notion that teams in contention don't break in prospects is totally false. Just because you may not want it to be done, doesn't it mean it isn't regularly done across the league for a variety of very defensible reasons. If course it is. The most defensible reason is because they are the best player available. Or they have such a good team that they can afford to have one on the team learning as they go. Another would be they are good defenders and the lack of offense is offset by great defense. None of those reasons apply to the Brewers current situation. While there may be good reasons to do it none of them apply to the current Brewers team. I do not buy it is better to break in one a year than three as a reason to risk a playoff appearance though. The break in period is smaller with a more polished prospect so I don't think it makes any sense at all to bring them up ealry if you don't have to. Gamel is not completely ready for the majors. I think he is capable of handling major league duty but could learn more and be a better major league player quicker if he learns more than his 119 ab's in AAA taught him so far.

If we didn't have someone who was playing better now fine. Since we have better options I don't see how you can justify playing him over that person. This is a team chasing a division title and a second consecutive playoff birth in a very winnable division. It is not the time to let a young player learn on the job unless we have to. We don't so he's not going to play regularly which is the very thing he needs to do to fix his incomplete offensive skill set. Gamel is a great prospect for the future but today is the present and this team has a responsibility to the fans, who have supported this team so well, to put out the best team possible everyday all year long. If they can do that and get Gamel the playing time he needs for a projected 4th outfielder and a low level bullpen prospect I think it's a deal that should be made. Both for the short term and long term.

but when he is OPSing over 1.000 in AAA, he is ready to at least be given a chance to start at a major league level. That was never an opportunity given to him. He has 4 more ab's in AAA than he had in the majors. How can you know more about this abilities to play major league ball through 119 ab's in AAA than you can in 115 ab's in the majors? Just doesn't make sense to me. I'm not saying his numbers all the way through the system doesn't project well for him as a major league player down the raod. Far from that. It's just I don't think he was ready for the majors now. I'm not a fan of Macha's use of the bench or young players but I think in the Gamel case he saw someone not quite ready for prime time and used him accordingly.

when I a was younger and had 3% body fat I would swim a lap or two and be totally wiped out. Now that I'm older and fatter I can swim further even though I'm not in nearly as good of shape as I was back then. Take heart fat isn't such a bad thing in the water.

but given Gamel's proven ability to hit the ball, he should have been given some more chances. I don't know how much someone proved in 115 total ab's. What he has shown is he strikes out about 40% of the time. Uecker knew a low inside braking ball or inside fastball at the belt was coming on any 2 strike count because he couldn't handle it yet. That only means he would continue his K pace until he showed he made adjustments to that way of pitching. Total in the majors now he has a .243 average, .338 OBP, and .417 slugging %. Not bad but certainly not good for a contending team with better options. To send him back down now is only going to help him improve the holes in his offense without harming the team or running up service time. If the only way to do that and maintain the current level or minor increase in the level of play was to give up two relatively low ceiling minor leaguers I'm all for it. This team has a chance to win the division and are ina win now without harming the future mode. This trade is the type that can be made without harming either of those two goals.

The Jays have Scutaro for the short term, they don't need Hardy. That makes it a 3 team deal which is almost impossible to pull together. Unless they view JJ as the long term shortstop. Scutaro could then be flipped for something else. Overall the Lopez deal gives the Brewers some depth and the type of hitter they were looking for. He has always hit well in Milwaukee and has been pretty good for the last year. Considering they only have him for another 1/2 year I'm pretty comfortable with him being able to put up similar numbers for at least a portion of the rest of the season. The down side is losing a guy who could be a middle reliever in 3ish years is more than an insignificant loss for an organization that has it's fair share of problems producing them the last couple decades. If Lopez does accept arby next year no big deal. Counsell may well retire and would be 39 next year. Hard to count of guys that age to continue being good. Especially when they have Counsell's skill set to begin with. Hall and Lopez would provide the veteran bench Melvin likes. Considering how Macha uses his bench neither of them would play much unless there were injuries anyway.

I saw the Swindle pitch TLB was talking about. Sick sick sick. Why can't he do that in a Brewers uniform? Isn't there room on the 40 man now? I think his call up depends on whether we get some outside pitching help or not.

There's a fallacy to your argument. Hall may have value as a backup ss, but this organization no longer considers him to be in that role. They haven't since 2006. Once again it doesn't matter one bit what his role is now or what it was the past three years. What matters is what roles Hall is CAPABLE of. It is clear he is capable of playing shortstop. Shortstop is a very difficult position to find adequate bench help with. Thus Hall's value is as a reserve who can play shortstop. The league is full of players whose roles changed throughout the years so i don't get why Hall's role cannot change with the Brewers. Hell the viewed Craig Cousell as a starting shortstop about 5 years ago. But the Diamondbacks resigned him to play second base. That can't be. After all he was a shortstop. Times change and so do players value/role. Hall is now best used as a bench player who has the versitiliy to play all the infield postions. If you can point to one person in the organization not named Bill Hall who still views Hall the same today as they did the last couple years I might then buy into your arguement that the team wouldn't even consider Hall as a possible backup at shortstop next year. Views change. I am sure the Brewer's view of Hall has changed. I would suspect going into next year Hall will not be viewed as anything more than a bench player who can fill the hardest bench role on the team. But according to your logic they cannot because they viewed him as a starter at third or center the past three seasons. Next year Gamel will most likely be the starter. McGehee probalby has played his way into the picture ahead of Hall at this point. SO what makes you think the Brewers wouldn't change their views on what role Hall would play on this team next year?