Playing Catch

My "old" Badger fandom would have me sweating all of these transfers. My "new" Badger fandom says, who cares? The players we bring in can't be any worse. That sounds negative and cynical, but I promise it's not! It's really more of an optimistic outlook. Look, the roster this season was poor. Someone asked about Wohler's draft profile a few posts ago, and I think most of us agreed with the idea of 6th round to undrafted. He was our BEST player?? Yikes! Pauling is a loss. But if the Badgers are basically keeping Trech, and replacing Pauling with that Ball State tight end, I am IN. I tried to get on board with the Dairy Raid, I really did. But gosh do I hate that stupid stuff. I want ALL the tight ends.

I guess the point of my question is that a good on-base percentage is often a reflection of hitters taking walks. Presumably, there are fewer walks in the playoffs due to higher quality pitching. All of the "home-runs in the playoffs" articles only reference homers. I'm curious though, if the winning percentages are similar for a team that simply out-hits their opponent. Not necessarily out-homers. But like you said, probably not worth very much.

At the risk of sounding like I'm talking myself into thinking this was a good trade... Well, I guess that's exactly what I'm doing. But anyhoo, I'm beginning to buy Durbin as an above-average everyday IFer. Not necessarily in his rookie year, but after a year or two, I can imagine him slashing .270/.380/.430 . That's a pretty good player. He has hit at every level of his minor league career, which basically consisted of three seasons, not including his 17 game stint in rookie ball his draft year. 2022 - 116 wRC+ in 333 A-ball plate appearances 2023 - 151 wRC+ in 124 A+ plate appearances, promoted to AA - 122 wRC+ in 194 double-A plate appearances 2024 - debuts in AAA, finishing season with 129 wRC+ in 375 PAs, before lighting up the AFL I mean, that's really consistent. It's actually kind of a similar statistical profile as Tyler Black. Durbin has a clear edge with the glove, Black has more power, and is a lefty hitter. But they have similar speed and similar on-base profiles.

Are there any studies that show how simply outhitting your playoff opponent does to winning%, or most total bases?

Oh jeez, of course he does!!

FTR, I, too, want to see them fill that hole with a power stick. But seeing the Steamer projections (even with the inaccurate inclusion of Bauers, haha), made me feel a lot better about just how much power the Brewers need to procure. It made me feel better about using a Durbin/Dunn platoon, or using a defensive player who's limited with the bat. Also, Steamer is projecting Chourio with 28, Mitchell with 15, Ortiz with 13, and Frelick with 6. I'm not sure that I wouldn't take the over on all of those, individually. Per the conversation about OBP>ISO, or whatever... OBP is really important, statistically. But much less important on an AB-by-AB level, where situation can change everything. However, I also think many fans of power like it with the idea that power can drive in guys that are already on base. For me, that, too, is very situational. The reason I like power is that it gives the hitter a better chance of scoring a run himself, as he is more likely to be that much closer to home. In the same way, I love guys that can steal bases, and guys that can put the bat on the ball to drive in the guys in scoring position. IMO, two of the currently most underrated "classic" stats are batting average (quick/dirty number, I know, compared to the advanced stats of today), and Runs Scored. Give me a guy that scores 100 runs every year for 6 million, over the guy that has 100 RBI every year and costs 26 million. Give me a stubborn, pesky hitter who fouls off 10 pitches and wears out that 100mph reliever, over the guy who loves to take walks go down 0-2 and K's on a well-placed slider. To the idea of a lineup filled with Arraez-es or Hoskins, I really like having a balanced lineup. I like to have the speed/baserunning the Brewers possess. But I also like having guys that at least present a real threat to hit one out. Just having power threats is, IMO, very important in making it a difficult lineup to pitch to.

The Brewers hit 177 Home Runs in 2024. Unless I added incorrectly, Steamer projects the current roster to hit 181 HRs. Are we too worried about replacing Adames' power?

I understand that the Levonas pick is nice to have this year. But doesn't the knowledge that a team MUST sign the pick or lose it forever negate a lot of leverage? Is that destined to be a senior? You can't pick some overslot guy, only to have the agent hold the team ransom? Although, I suppose at that point it the team bails on the pick and signs a bunch of 11-20 round high schoolers. Man, this off-season is going to be interminable. Can't Spring Training just get here already???

I mentioned it in a few different threads the last few months, but I think the Brewers look at defense as "team defense". What i mean by this, is that putting a great defensive third baseman next to a good SS is the same as having an elite SS and a poor third baseman. Likewise on the 1st base side, where the Brewers currently feature a bad defensive first baseman. I wonder if the Brewers feel like they can't afford to move their platinum glove second baseman from that side of the infield.

My guess is that the Brewers want Quero to be good enough that they can trade Contreras before the 2027 season.

If Hoskins is playing defense, I just don't see the Brewers moving Turang from 2B.

I both agree with @jay87shot, and disagree. I think that on paper, the Brewers are better after this trade. I also think that the return falls a bit short. I mean, Cortes is only 5'11" and Durbin is 5'6"!

Trading Freddy isn't a bad thought at all, IMO. With his two years of club control at a low price, he provides quality innings, but not quantity innings. I think you could get another DL Hall type of prospect plus one or two more pieces. Stocking up on some MLB arms is never a bad idea if you are trading guys like Freddy.

Played some CF, too... Locally Sourced Arizona Fall League Notes: Tre’ Morgan’s Skills, Caleb Durbin Branches Out | FanGraphs Baseball Considering the one year remaining on Cortes, maybe they flip him for someone else? I like him and all, and presuming health, he probably pitches well enough for a QO, but I dunno. Seems like they could flip him for a guy with more club control, too.

You forgot to write, "World Series here we come!"

3540 rpms?? Really? I'm dubious.

Hmmm... that's interesting to me. And that's from McCalvy, the Brewers guy, not from some rumor-mongering Yankees beat writer. I, too, am glad they didn't get Crochet. I just am fearful he's a flash-in-the-pan. I would much prefer seeing them trade prospects for a hitter.

We need more of this around here. In seriousness, though, I too, would like to have Arenado on the Brewers.

I think they'll do something akin to what they did with Haase last season. Sign a vet to a minor league contract with an invite to Spring Training. The Brewers kind of operate like this with a lot of positions. You can never have enough catchers. The only reason the Brewers had 3 catchers for much of the season is because Haase vastly outperformed expectations, making his control for 2025 quite valuable.

I think the Brewers would be silly not to look into it based on divisional rivalry -- and I don't often say that, particularly with the hated Cardinals. But I just don't think the Cardinals are going to get a good prospect from anyone, unless they take on most of the salary, and even then. I don't think the Brewers are desperate, but I sure am getting there every time I remember Willy hit 30 bombs last season. Arenado was a league-average hitter, and still a positive on defense. The Brewers are dying for that profile.

I roll my eyes at it, but whatever, the union wanted it as an anti-tanking measure, the league thought they could use it to create an offseason story. Win-win for them, and teams still need to do their homework so they don't screw it up. It doesn't bother me that much.

Sounds like the portal is trecherous. I'll see myself out.

I agree with all your points. Crowl was much better despite the lack of boards. It probably means he was actually blocking out his man, waiting for one of the guards to come get it. Yeah, I don't actually mind home cookin' --- but we better get that treatment at home, too! Janicki continues to impress me. I keep waiting for him to just have a lousy game, but he doesn't. He's got moxie, just enough athleticism, and can both shoot and handle. He's a player. After a couple of sleeps, I'm over the loss. Illinois, before the Badger game, was my pick to win the league. Badgers beat the spread. Illinois had to play great to beat the Badgers, who didn't play great. I mean, this is the B1G were talking about. Road wins are to be cherished. (But dad-gummit, that Michigan loss at home!!)

If you had to put $100 down on a bet of whether or not Soto will opt out after 5 seasons, what would you bet? I would bet... no.

Right. This is why in my uneducated opinion, the mid-level players and the mid-level teams could team up to bargain. There IS a hypothetical salary structure that could benefit the players AND competitive balance, I just don't know what it would be. Better compensation for minor leaguers and 40-man fodder was a good place to start. Mid-tier FAs, though, are problematic. But that has more to do with the ROI for teams signing them. Often times, AAAA-guys will end up performing just as well.