Playing Catch

I won't use any stats to back my opinion... My opinion is, is that despite what my eyes tell me when I look at the standings (is that a stat?), the Brewers offense could use some more thump. Particularly if they are trying to outhomer the '27 Yankees... err, '26 Dodgers. So I guess I we agree? But as others have mentioned, in order to improve the power, you only offer solutions by subtraction (getting rid of the losers populating roster spots on the 2nd best team in the world). As others have repeatedly mentioned in threads such as this, you can't just pull more power out of the ether. AND you can't just get power without sacrificing something else, unless you plan to acquire... whom? It seems like you really just want the statnerds to acknowledge that they feel something when Ortiz strikes out or Hamilton smashes one all the way to the warning track. Yah, man... we do. We do have feelings and shout at the TV, and complain over breakfast the next morning to our spouses about last night's latest in-game decision disaster. Then, we run to the internet and gather up every piece of data we can find to try and improve the Brewers and come back here to tell everyone that guess what? Baseball is hard. It's hard to beat the best team in perhaps our lifetimes. It's hard to acquire more power in this league in 2026. It's hard to win back-to-back "Org of the Year" awards, it's hard living with the memories of what-could-have-been. Yeah, maybe you are right. Maybe it's time to hang up the season. But even in those darkest moments of despair, you know what statnerds look to? Their faith that baseball is a funny game. And that it ain't over till it's over. That as long as the prediction markets say the Dodgers chance of victory is ONLY 99%, that there's still a chance.

I think this narrative has taken a life of its own. He's pitched in 50 of the Brewers 108 games. That's a lot, I'll grant you. But he had three back-to-back appearances in March/April, one back-to-back in May, three again in June, and 1 so far in July. The last back-to-back was a 9-pitch outing followed by a 25-pitch outing. I agree that they need to monitor his workload just like any other pitcher, and that he's thrown a lot. But good pitchers get more innings. I just don't see how their use of Ashby is some kind of outlier. You can point to his performances as evidence of your assertion, but relievers are a fickle bunch, and to date, he's avoided an IL stint this season. I just don't see enough there to be convinced that they are treating him like "scientific experiment".

I think some "experts" are of the belief that the Dodgers have already put a huge prospect-offer on the table therefore necessitating an even better return from another team if they are to acquire Skubal. So, in other words, IF the Brewers were to get Skubal, they would need to offer more than De Paula+Sirota++++ At least, I think that's the theory some people are going with.

If Detroit were to package Skubal and Mize (and Kenley Jansen, why not?)... At that point, blockbusters involving Made are probably closer to reality.

I think that for decades now, front offices and organizations have isolated and controlled their decision-making to such a degree that any legitimately gained information the media throws out there, is nearly as dubious as information that was simply pulled from the internet's ether. The drive for content and the clicks they generate will absolutely provide enough motive for someone to include the name "Skubal" and "Jesus Made" in the same headline, regardless of how speculative the information.

Jim Bowden thinks the Crew will get Skubal?? Well then!

It's not about what any of us would do, but rather that reasonable people may disagree about the present tools (or their OWN evaluation of what being a "prospect" means in the first place) enough that they may disagree about the value of different players stats. If the Brewers paid out pre-debut contracts waiting for stats to confirm their baises, they wouldn't have given the extension to Pratt.

Henderson's performances have certainly narrowed that gap between what one could expect in a playoff start from the two players. Then you add the years...

Yeli's wRC+ of 96 puts him in the same neighborhood as the following hitters in descending order of wRC+... Bregman (99 wRC+), Chisholm, Guerrero Jr., Naylor, Stott, Dansby, Dubon, Chapman, Kwan, Adames, Henderson, Adell, Simpson, Varsho, Durbin, Altuve (90 wRC+). Obviously, several of those names derive most of their value as defenders, and Yelich being a DH certainly impacts his individual WAR. But for the team, his being sub-standard as a hitter isn't any more impactful than those other teams' experiences with even younger, middle-of-the-order bats. I'm not disputing Yelich should take more time off due to his performance, or that his contract is underwater, but the degree to which he's been struggling is being vastly overstated, particularly when we witness him hitting an opposite field bomb just the other day.

Contraction of minors will coincide with expansion draft, I would expect, so there could be a lot of changes. I would be surprised if the Brewers end up with a lousy AAA situation as the organization has so actively developed and invested in their current satellites.

Just pretend "prospect pedigree" and "tools" are synonyms (particularly when referencing the motives behind acquiring Priester/Harrison), and I think you are agreeing with gregmag.

Earlier this season I wondered about Ortiz being more valuable as a trade piece than we may think. I haven't considered it recently, though, but I still think it's an interesting idea. For a team that needs multiple pieces like the Nats, they could do worse than Ortiz at SS for the next couple of seasons. It certainly would stabilize their horrid defense. Ortiz could serve as the "big-league ready" piece, and one of the younger prospects in the system could provide the juice to the deal.

Nothing to add to CheezWiz's dynamite opening post. I'm sure we agree that (A) They've looked awesome, and (B) They've just started enjoying the first sips of their cup-o-coffee. Experience has trained me to believe that good defensive prospects will struggle for a year or two (e.g. Turang), or forever (Orlando Arcia), but it's easy to dismiss that Baseball America, and other "experts" in prospecting, launched Lara well into their top 100s this season after what scouts saw down in Nashville. He is a lottery ticket kind of prospect, and they started reading the numbers when the season started. We'll see if they hit on his Power-ball. And kinda the same thing with Pratt, in a way. He started smacking some opposite field liners in Nashville, that I think set up his current hitting profile. And he's already went over 400' pull-side. The Brewers just may have what they hoped they drafted/acquired in Pratt and Lara (Gunnar Henderson/Tim Raines?)*. And as stated originally --- it's very very early. *edit to add: I don't mean to compare the kid to a HOFer, I just thought the profile looked similar

I'm not worried about it yet. After the deadline, and all of the most recent injuries/promotions shake out, the Brewers FO and Murph will nail down how they want their rotations to look for the stretch/playoffs, and begin meting out their preferred mix. If that mix doesn't include a lot of Lara, then I suspect they'll send him back to Nashville. While getting ABs is paramount, we don't have to freak out each time Lara is watching the game next to one of the 3 dozen coaches/vets in the dugout to talk ball for 3 straight hours. He's soaking it all in, and getting paid for it. The Brewers have every incentive to develop him properly, and part of that development for someone so young is to see the game from the top-down sometimes, and to watch how the other players do it. But based on the eye-test, I think he's my starter in RF right now, playing with Mitchell/Chourio in CF/LF, and he's one tweaked Mitchell hamstring away from taking over CF for the next ten years. His mastery of the zone is palpable, and it puts real pressure on pitchers to hit their spot. I think it's almost as good as Bauers that way, but pitchers are risking Lara slashing/dashing instead of risking a Bauers blast. I think it puts just as much pressure on the pitcher as Frelick flailing and fouling his way to an effective AB as well. So if he can battle against the best as well as those two, I think the only question is if you are willing to live with BauerPower on the bench or live with his glove in the field.

It seems like you are asking fans not to lose their minds after the trade deadline? Or after the Brewers' playoff exit? I'm sure fans will consider your well-reasoned argument when posting on social media or in this space despite their frustrations with getting/giving too much/not enough.

That's kind of what I've been feeling, too. I think it's because the overall perception of Skubal is that he's at the tippy-top tier of starting pitchers, an echelon Burnes hasn't hit. I think it's the same thing with Mason Miller. These guys that are one-of-one demand a premium, oftentimes.

It's a tough question because one has to weigh "playoff value" and "$/WAR-value". For me that makes Sproat both really easy to deal, AND really tough to trade away. I think a lot of the "trade from depth" talk is legitimate. I can imagine this front office believing the best thing to do is to trade from the fringes of the 26-man. Or to try and do an add/subtract-roster-Rochambeau-type of deadline. This deadline is getting really fun, because I think it's so unpredictable, as to how aggressive the Brewers will be, AND I keep changing my mind as to how aggressive I want them to be, as the Sproat case study explains.

I respectfully disagree to a point. Obviously, the numbers have to be there in baseball. And I completely understand and agree that a team full of Rudys won't get you anywhere. But I think that it's impossible to ignore the types of players they've collected over the years. Most of them demonstrate tremendous humility in terms of playing within their skillset, being open to learning and improving, as well as having team-forward mindsets. Frelick being the archtype for such things. I think with all of the [appropriate] eyerolling we do around here with Murphy's Murphisms, it's easy to lose sight of the fact that it's really, really hard to develop a culture of winning without getting winners to play for you. The Angels, on paper, often have a similar pre-season talent pool in their 26-man. Why do the Brewers and Angels always seem to finish where they do? I happen to believe that the Brewers employ more winners.

At first blush... NO to A (I'm probably just partial to those two prospects) YES to B (I like Ryan and I think that's what it might take to get him). Neutral to C (I don't trust Rockies, and I trust Brewers' lefty relievers like Manfredi)

Ricki Moneys name combined with that profile pic, just sitting there in the middle of the top 30. A marketer's dream.

If you want to instantly improve a last place team, Frelick could absolutely be a building block. When a team, like the Angels, have minimal talent to trade, they have limited ability to improve. Frelick can be trusted to be committed to winning every day. That's a pretty important intangible for a last place team, to have a CF that you can point to, and tell everyone else on the team, "play like that guy". He's a reliable starting CF in MLB. That's a pretty valuable thing to have on an MLB roster. He just happens to be one of the Brewers' lesser regulars.

I mentioned this in another thread, as have others, but I really do think there's an impending roster crunch, and at the big-league level, you only have 26 spots. They will need to pick who they want on the field using up playing time, and on the 40-man, using up their options. I don't know how they'll approach this deadline, but I think that the roster 'rythmetic will play a role in their decisions, and may encourage them to sell high on this sky-high system. The funny thing is, is that I trust them to decide who they keep. Listening to McCalvy on the broadcast last night really surprised me, as one could kind of hear it in his voice that he believes the team is genuinely in on some of the bigger trade pieces this season. I thought Brian and Rock were kind of pumping up the possibilities, too. That was really a new tone, I thought, from previous deadlines where it seemed like the message was about how happy they were with the roster they had. Maybe I'm making something out of nothing, though.

I think Chourio is young, and I think this shows up more on defense. I also think he would improve if given more reps in CF.

I think most of us see the glut of 40-man options in the next 18 months, making it more likely to trade from the upper levels (or at least provide a motivation to trade from those levels). We also acknowledge that owners are wanting minor league contraction. So. Does that make it more likely the Brewers trade their DSL/AZL players? And thinking about that more broadly, does this mean they need to extract value from these players now, rather than wait and have to release them in some kind of minor league draft following the new CBA?

He's got charisma, a "good face," in scouting parlance, a recognizable name, a gold glove. He's "controllable". There are a lot of selling points to convince a fanbase that you got a real player in the deal.