The stache

I'm no more a fan of using ERA to discuss a pitcher's efficiency than I am a fan of using RBI's to discuss a hitter's greatness. Too many things are beyond the control of the player being discussed. A hitter needs to be successful, but also needs to have players on base to get high RBI totals. By extension, a pitcher needs a good defense behind them to help keep their ERA down. Beyond a mere comparison of home ballparks, which would favor Hernandez, you also have to look at the quality of defenses behind the pitchers. When Sheets pitched that gem of a season in 2004, he did so with a defense that was 10th out of 16 teams in defensive efficiency, and 12th out of 16 in fielding percentage. No Gold Glove award winners backing him up. When Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young in 2010, the defense behind him was much better than the team that backed Sheets. The Mariners were 4th out of 14 teams in defensive efficiency, and 7th out of 14 teams in fielding percentage. He also had two Gold Glove outfielders, Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro Suzuki. What a pitcher can control are the number of walks and strikeouts they get, and how many base runners they allow (again though, the defense plays into this). With a lesser defense behind him, Sheets had a better WHIP (0.983) than Fernandez (1.057), and a vastly superior K:BB ratio (8.25:1 for Sheets, 3.31:1 for Hernandez). You are correct that Sheets never had an ERA below 3.00 again. In 2005, Ben Sheets had a 3.33 ERA, which is still good. His WHIP was still good (1.066, or .09 higher than King Felix in his Cy Young season). His K:BB ratio of 5.64:1 was still outstanding. So why was his ERA higher? The Milwaukee Brewers had the third lowest fielding percentage in all the Major Leagues, and worst in the National League. That might have had something to do with it. When Sheets was healthy, yes, he was every bit as good as Hernandez. The numbers support this statement. And the argument can be made that Sheets, in 2004, was better than King Felix in 2010 when he won the Cy Young.

They would come back, yes, but how long do you think it would take for them to overcome to loss of that kind of offensive production? The players we'd get for Braun would start out in the minors. In the interim, the Brewers would see their chances at reaching the postseason decrease, and the turnstiles at Miller Park would slow. We replaced Prince Fielder's production with Aramis and Corey Hart. I don't see anybody on the roster that would help us compensate for Braun's lost production. We'd find some stop gap on the market, but there's no guarantees. No way Braun gets traded, or should be traded.

I've been getting into an argument on another board. I compared Ben Sheets in his prime to Felix Hernandez. The other poster's response: My response:

But trading Braun wouldn't help us "go for it" in 2013/2014. That would be a sign that the team is looking to it's future, and NOT thinking about the present. And in the meantime, you'd see Brewer fans staying away from Miller Park. They'd be ticked that in a two year span, we let Zack Greinke, Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun get away. What exactly, Ennder, are you going to point to in your last post if we complain about signing those two pitchers? That you would have compounded the problem by trading away the face of the franchise after just missing a Triple Crown?

I'm 41. Mike Trout should, and will win the MVP. The Triple Crown has never been an automatic MVP. It's impressive, especially now, but it does not make one automatically the most valuable player in the league. Most valuable hitter, maybe, but the MVP does not only consider hitting. If Miguel Cabrera hit two less home runs, and lost the Triple Crown, is he more or less valuable? Of course not. He's still the same incredible hitter. But that is all he provides. His abilities at the plate. Let's look at it this way. Compare Trout's numbers projected over a 162 game season to what Cabrera ended with. Trout played in 139 games. 85% of the season. Augment his numbers by 15%: 148 runs 200 hits 35 home runs 95 RBI 56 stolen bases ....as a leadoff hitter. He's nearly a 40 40 player as a 20 year old leadoff hitter. Now, this is a hypothetical obviously, but if Trout plays the entire season, Cabrera's only edge over Trout is 8 home runs, and 44 RBI. And the disparity in RBI is a product only of where Trout and Cabrera hit in their lineups. If I told you as the owner of a MLB franchise you could have a triple crown hitter, or a Gold Glove center fielder that would steal 50 bases, in addition to the second highest OPS in the entire league, who would you choose? Trout in a heartbeat, because he provides far greater value. Hitting is only half the game, and when not at the plate, Cabrera offers no value. Let's look at the sabermetrics: Runs created per 27 outs: Mike Trout 8.85 (#1 in MLB) Ryan Braun 8.46 (#2 in MLB) Miguel Cabrera 7.98 (#4 in MLB) Runs created: Ryan Braun 135.0 (#1 in MLB) Miguel Cabrera 133.6 (#2 in MLB) Mike Trout 129.8 (#3 in MLB even though he didn't play in the first 20 games of the Angel's season) Trout destroys him in the field. Trout destroys him on the bases. Trout is nearly his equal at the plate. You can completely negate Miguel Cabrera's impact in a game if you choose to walk him. You cannot negate Trout's impact in a game. He does too many things besides hit the ball well. Cabrera should win the Hank Aaron award as the best offensive player in the American League. But Mike Trout is clearly the AL MVP, and it shouldn't be close.

Please, let's just nip this "trade Braun" talk in the bud. Braun will be 29 in November. He's just now really entering his prime. Trading a guy with Triple Crown potential at the onset of his best years is absurd. I don't care what you could get in return. Hitters like the Hebrew Hammer come along once in a generation, and we're not going to get comparable value back. Some players you look to trade. Braun extended his contract, and got less than he could have on the open market. He wants to remain in Milwaukee, and win a championship. You don't trade the face of the franchise when the best is yet to come.

I always felt that Braun could lead the league in HR. He'd hit 37 before. In a down year, that leads the league. He's always had the power potential, and playing at Miller Park doesn't hurt. But I think the 3 HR game at Petco raised some eyebrows. That's not an easy place to hit em out. Posey hit about as well as any player can in the second half. I don't know if he could have been any hotter down the stretch. So, if Ryan doesn't have that lull, I think he'd have had a shot.

Both had great years, but I can't recall Miguel Cabrera jumping over the wall to rob somebody of a home run. I've seen Mike Trout do it several times. How many runs has Trout saved with his defense? Cabrera is a great hitter. He does squat as a base runner or fielder. Trout is a great hitter that is a soon-to-be Gold Glove center fielder, and the best base stealer in the league. Trout wins the MVP, imho, because he impacts the game in more ways than Cabrera. For all those saying "but Cabrera did something that hasn't happened in 45 years", how many rookies have hit .326 with 30 HR, 49 SB and 129 runs scored...while playing in only 139 games? It's never happened. OPS is, again imho, the purest metric of a player's offensive production. It includes power (slugging) and on base (hitting/walking). Cabrera's .999 OPS was tops in the AL. Trout's OPS was .963. Second. Trout nearly matches perhaps the best pure hitter in the game as a 20 year old rookie. Add in the other aspects of Trout's game, and it's clear he's the MVP.

And I, too, wish Ben the best of luck going forward, and thank him for a great run with the Brewers!!

The joke was finishing only 8th in Cy Young that year. Bingo! Here's a post I made on another forum when a poster said he wasn't anywhere near a star when he played:

Winning the Triple Crown is hard. Very hard. If you look at the modern era of baseball, and compare the number of Triple Crown winners in the last 50 years to the number of winners in the first century of baseball, it's evident how the increase in the number of teams has made the feat much more difficult to accomplish. In 1933, there was a Triple Crown winner in each league. (Chuck Klein and Jimmy Foxx). Back then, there were 8 teams in each league. With the Houston Astros moving to the American League for 2013, there will be 15 teams in each. That makes it all the more impressive that Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers won it this season. But lost in the conversation of Cabrera's pursuit has been that of Ryan Braun's own Triple Crown chase. In fact, I haven't heard it discussed on any television show, or on any major site. It's only been discussed on a select few baseball forums. But if you compare Braun's numbers to those Miguel Cabrera put up, they're quite close. Shockingly close. And those numbers, when viewed next to one another, should show the rest of baseball what we already know. Ryan Braun is the best hitter in the National League. http://imageshack.us/a/img407/2506/brauncabrera2012comp.png It is interesting how one little bump in Ryan's season cost him a chance at baseball immortality. I understand that all hitters, even great ones like Ryan Braun, will have periods where they statistically do not meet their norms. The great thing about baseball is that a hitter can be crushing the ball. But hit it right at somebody, and they'll have nothing to show for it in the box score. Ryan went through one of these periods, a blip of a statistical anomaly in an otherwise great season. http://imageshack.us/a/img100/2369/braunminislump2012.png In retrospect, if you look at this period, and factor in the 7 or 8 hits Ryan might have gotten based on where he finished the season, he ends with a .331 or .332 average. Not quite up to Buster Posey's league leading .336. But if he's chasing a batting title at the end of the season, maybe some things are done differently. Maybe Ron Roenicke does not take Brauny out on September 29th against the Astros in a 9-0 game. Braun was 2 for 3, and when Nyjer Morgan was brought in to pinch hit for Braun, there were two men on, and nobody out. So, why am I making this post, you all might ask? Am I taking a shot at Ryan? No, not at all. Quite the contrary. I am paying my favorite player a compliment. Ryan Braun, who I feel should be the NL MVP for 2012, was one little hiccup from being the first Triple Crown winner in the National League in 75 years (Joe Medwick was the last to accomplish this in 1937). This is how truly great a hitter we are witnessing, and while I think we all know it, I think that Braun's greatness is under-appreciated by the national media. You hear him called a really, really good hitter, and phrases like "steady", and "consistent" are thrown around when he is being discussed. Meanwhile, when Matt Kemp, a guy with career averages of .285 18 HR and 66 RBI coming into the 2011 season, is having a great year, everybody starts gushing about him. Year in, year out, he produces. Year in, year out, he's out there 150 + games a season. He led the league in home runs this season. He missed the RBI crown by three. He was the runner up for the batting title last season, and that came down to the final day of the season. He's led the NL in OPS the last two years, in runs scored this year, in hits in 2009. He set a MLB rookie mark with his .634 slugging in 2007. He's a four time (soon to be five time) silver slugger winner. He's been Rookie of the Year, the NL MVP, and he was a couple of off games from a Triple Crown. We are witnessing one of the great hitters in MLB history, and fortunately for us, he wears the Brewer blue and gold.

Stanton might not qualify. He'd need 503 plate appearances by the end of the season. It will be close. Of course, Braun could crank a few homers in the final 4 games, and make it a moot discussion.

RRR has nobody to blame but himself. Put a scrub pitcher in, take Braun, Ramirez, Aoki, Hart, Lucroy and Weeks out. We won, but Ronicke is clueless.

LOLivan. Three home runs.

LOLivan. Let this be his final appearance in a Milwaukee Brewers uniform. I'd laugh and laugh some more if the bullpen blows up, and Ron's got Braun and Ramirez on the bench. Won't happen, but I kinda wish it would.

I've never seen a manager pull as many players late in the game as Roenicke does.

Further proof Roenicke is an idiot. We get two on with Braun due to hit, and Roenicke pinch hits for him.

Save Farris.

How about a nice 3-run homer here, Brauny So, Nori and Rickie to get on!

Headley with a 3 run HR to tie Braun for the RBI lead again. Darn it, I want Braun to win the RBI and HR title, and Weeks just doesn't get on enough for him to do it. It seems every time Braun gets a hit recently, it's either leading off an inning, or there's nobody on.

Ding ding ding ding! We have a winner. The drop off we're seeing in Michael's production was to be expected. Why? Look at his workload in the minors. In 2009: 40 2/3 IP In 2010: 125 IP In 2011: 126 IP In 2012: 55 IP AAA Nashville First 80 IP with Milwaukee (at this point, Fiers is 6-4 with a 1.80 ERA, 80 K vs 16 BB. 1.012 WHIP, .218 oAVG) Last 41 2/3 IP Milwaukee (the remainder of the year, 3-5 with a 6.91 ERA. 45 K vs 19 BB. 1.771 WHIP, .316 oAVG) His BAbip through August 7th: .286 His BAbip the remainder of the season: .398 That's a 112 point jump. Michael Fiers did not suddenly forget how to pitch. I expect that some of the decline in his performance is due to hitters getting second and third looks at his delivery. But the main culpret is his workload. He had 55 IP in the minors, and 122.2 IP in the majors...he's never approached this 177 2/3 IP previously. Michael is not a power pitcher. We all know this. But fatigue can cause affect even finesse pitchers. Imagine a fastball that's normally coming in at 88-90 mph dropping a few mph. That's all the longer hitters are able to track the ball from the pitcher's release point. More time to identify what kind of pitch is coming (even if it's only a few fractions of a second). Arm fatigue might mean that a pitcher is snapping his curveball off less, meaning it doesn't have the same break. Fiers is not the only rook that's experiencing fatigue. The Arizona Diamondbacks just shut down phenom Tyler Skaggs for the year. His fastball average has dropped from 94 to 87-88 since being called up. I have a very good feeling about Michael Fiers. I don't like putting labels on pitchers, so I'm not going to say "he's a #2, a #3, or a #4...", but if he can continue to work on his conditioning, and increase his workload capacity, he could be a very solid starter for the Brewers. He's got a 9.6 K/IP for his time in the minor leagues, and a 9.4/IP figure for his time in the majors. And his 3.57:1 K:BB ratio is outstanding. Compare that to Stephen Strasburg, who is a power pitcher. In his first full season in the bigs, he had a 4.10 K:BB ratio.

LUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUC!

Brauny with a double, let's get him in.

Would love a homer here just to say "Braun takes Wang deep".

That's a clown double play.