The stache

5 times the legal limit? Holy cripes. Even though the legal limit there is a lot lower, I just don't understand how anybody gets behind the wheel of a car after having that much to drink. What a waste of a life. Taveras just threw his life away, and unfortunately, he took his girlfriend's with his. Stupid stupid stupid.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11833376/mike-trout-andrew-mccutchen-win-silver-slugger-awards So Posey isn't an All Star, but he wins the Silver Slugger over Lucroy. That's fine, because in the grand analysis, his numbers were better, though his metrics are pretty much the same. Posey was slightly better in average, he was better in home runs and RBI, and had a higher OPS. His OPS + was 143. Lucroy had more hits, runs, doubles, a higher OBP, more extra base hits, more total bases. Both players had a 5.6 oWAR. It could have gone either way, but Buster Olnet has dubbed Buster Posey the new Derek Jeter, so expect ESPN and baseball writers everywhere to be jumping on the Posey train from here on out.

Brew4U, when you applied for membership, you said that you wanted to "be a contributor to positive Brewers discussion." That doesn't appear to be happening. Thank you for saying it, because I was trying not to. Not agreeing with another forum member is one thing. But being arrogant and rude is quite another altogether.

I showed you multiple categories where Lucroy was better than Molina. It's not homerism when dWAR shows Lucroy at 2.0, and Molina at 1.5. Even if Molina gets another 18% added for the games he missed, he's not equal to Lucroy's 2.0. You happen to think that throwing out base stealers makes Molina a God, and Lucroy a peasant. That's not the case. I cited the impact throwing out would be base stealers had on runs saved. Did you bother to read what I posted? Here it is again: rSB Stolen Base Runs Saved runs above average Molina 5 Lucroy -1 In layman's terms, Molina's throwing out base runners saved his team six runs in 2014. When everything is considered, pitch framing, throwing out base stealers, zone rating, fielding percentage, passed balls...everything, you could up with this: DRS. Total defensive runs saved above average. Molina 8 Lucroy 11 In 2014, Yadier Molina's defense saved a total of 8 more runs than an average defensive catcher. In 2014, Jonathan Lucroy's defense saved a total of 11 more runs than an average defensive catcher. Molina might have been the best defensive catcher in the game the last several years. But in 2014, this year, not 2013, not 2012....2014....Jonathan Lucroy, when everything is considered, not just the metric that you apparently can't move past, shows that Lucroy was better behind the plate. I showed you the pitch framing numbers this year, and last year. Lucroy had a big lead in 2013. In 2014, though Lucroy's numbers were slightly down, Molina's numbers fell off a cliff. Lucroy's lead over Molina nearly doubled there, from 79 more added strikes in 2013 to 149 more extra strikes in 2014. That's a huge disparity. And all those extra strikes that Lucroy netted over Molina translates to runs saved. Free strikes bring about strikeouts. They end opposition rallies. They take the bat out of a team's most dangerous hitter. Lucroy's pitch framing got 149 more strikes than Molina's. That's even more laughable than the base stealing metric. How does a catcher go from 144 extra strikes from framing in 2013 to 17 in 2014? Oh yeah, that could happen when a player is hurt, and coming back from an injury. When a player is returning from an injury, they will not be their normal self. Hence why it is more believable that in 2014, Lucroy could be better than Molina. Molina played fewer games. 29 fewer games, to be precise. And he was far less effective offensively, and less effective defensively. Look again at RAA, runs above average. Again, RAA includes offense, defense, base stealing...everything. 2014 RAA Lucroy 44 Molina 10 It's not even close. And Jonathan Lucroy did not gain a 34 run advantage to his RAA metric from offense alone.

Bravo! You just communicated what I've been feeling for some time, and quite eloquently, I might add. The Brewers need to develop for the long term. If we look at what Kansas City received from us in Cain and Escobar (clearly just one example), we gave them two pieces that can be starters in Kansas City long term. We gave them two quality Major League players for a 1.5 season rental of a former Cy Young Award winner that performed well, but shockingly, once he arrived in Los Angeles, began pitching even better. What we should be doing is drafting the kinds of players that will factor in the long term. We need to get better at drafting and developing our own pitchers. I do believe a championship-caliber team should have an ace, but they should not overspend to acquire that ace. And sometimes, if an ace cannot be acquired, two #2s can be just as good. The teams that have been winning lately-St. Louis, San Francisco and Boston, each have developed a ton of talent that they drafted. Heck, the Giants have developed so much great pitching that they were able to get rid of one of the best pitching prospects in baseball in Zack Wheeler. But they could do that because they had so much good pitching. They had Lincecum and Matt Cain, and Bumgarner was still a kid. And they have a pretty good catcher that calls a great game, and hits just a bit, too. The Brewers should be focusing on pitching, and positional players with speed, strong fundamentals, great defensive capabilities, and strong offensive upside. A couple of guys that can hit the ball out of the park is enough. Because when a great pitcher is on, they can negate power. You need a team that can manufacture runs when facing an ace like Clayton Kershaw, or a future ace like Gerrit Cole. And this team beat some aces this year, including Kershaw. But too many times, when the offense stopped scoring runs, they tried to break out of it by hitting every ball out of the park, and all that accomplished was to dig them into a deeper funk. The kind of player we look for in the draft has to change. I am very high on Tyrone Taylor, because I think he can be that kind of player. He's projected to be an above average hitter and fielder, and he has plus speed. Orlando Arcia may not have any power, but if he plays great defense, he really doesn't have to. He's going to be a good contact hitter, and he'll use his speed to get on base. MLB.com has his speed at below average. I think that's a misprint. The younger Arcia is supposed to have above average speed, and it showed some last year, as he stole 31 bases.

Okay, I'll bite. I don't think Lucroy is a better catcher. But I think, as a whole, he is pretty darned close to Molina. And when Lucroy, being pretty darned close to Molina plays 29 more games behind the plate-29 games being roughly 1/5th of the entire baseball season (well, 18%), then yes, I do believe that Jonathan Lucroy deserved the Gold Glove this year. Now, had Molina played the same number of games, and performed at the same high level, then I'd have felt the award was justified. If you're going to say that the most important component of being a good catcher is throwing out would be base stealers, then I need a good laugh. Okay, not a laugh, but a chuckle. Cutting down people trying to steal is a big deal, and a great catcher will not only cut them down, but as mentioned earlier, fewer will even dare try. But it is one of many things a catcher will do during the game, and it is certainly not the most important. Because what 83 stolen bases boils down to is roughly one base stolen every other team game the Brewers played in their 162 game season. Now, I realize that Lucroy didn't catch all 162 games. I'm speaking in the abstract here. But if he had allowed one stolen base every other game for the entire season, that's not that big of a deal when you consider everything. That's the equivalence of giving the opposition a double where they had a single once...every other game played. Yes, it puts that base runner into scoring position. But more often than not, that runner will not score. Some do, yes, absolutely. When you compare Molina's stolen base runs metric, he allowed 6 fewer runs than Lucroy did this year. There are a lot of other things that go into catching. Calling a game. Framing pitches. Positioning players on the field. Characterizing Lucroy as a "nice catcher" is just silly. And trying to dismiss the defensive component of WAR is equally silly. I didn't use to be a big fan of WAR. But as I've learned more about it, and the amount of work that goes into the metric's figuring, I've warmed to it. Because WAR doesn't care about what a player did last year, or the year before. WAR doesn't care about the number of Gold Gloves a player has on their mantle at home, or how many sportswriters gloss over when a player's name is brought up. WAR tends to look at things that can be proven, and it does it rather dispassionately. So, that WAR comparison may be just a little more reliable than some in this discussion want to admit. The number wasn't just pulled out of mid air. So, though Lucroy has the worst stolen base percentage of NL catchers. Let's look at another component of being a catcher, which you mentioned, but glossed over: that being pitch framing. I'll refer to stat corner.com, specifically the site's catcher report for 2014. I will also refer to an article written by Jeff Sullivan on Fangraphs. The referenced articles can be found here: http://statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pitch-framing-and-a-peek-inside-the-industry/ To start with, let me immediately reference a quote from that story: In 2013, Lucroy got more extra strikes for his pitchers (223) than anybody in baseball. Yadier Molina was third at 144 extra strikes. Molina's 2.1 dWAR was a big reason why he won the Gold Glove, and rightfully so. Lucroy's dWAR was 0.5. In 2014, though, while Lucroy's numbers dropped to 166 extra strikes (which led the NL), Molina's metric fell off a cliff. Molina went from 144 extra strikes for his pitching staff in 2013 to 17 in 2014. So, while Lucroy beat him by 79 extra strikes in 2013, in 2014, there was no competition. Lucroy got 149 more extra strikes for his catchers than Molina did. And those extra strikes are huge. Extra strikes mean extra outs. I wouldn't wager to guess if they have more of an impact than stolen bases allowed or less. All I know is extra strikes can come at any time. To throw out a base runner, somebody has to be on base. Look at the RAA metric (runs above average). RAA attempts to quantify a player's total contribution to a team, offense and defense, and base running. Yadier Molina's RAA in 2012 was 49. It was 40 in 2013. In 2014 it was 10. Jonathan Lucroy's RAA in 2012 was 24. It was 17 in 2013. In 2014 it was 44. I don't know if I quite understand how to break down RAA into offensive and defensive components, but it's obvious taken as a whole, Lucroy had a much better season than Molina. But if offense were removed from the equation, what would we see. Going back to Fangraphs. DRS. Total defensive runs saved above average. Molina 8 Lucroy 11 rGFP Good Fielding Plays Runs Saved runs above average Molina -2 Lucroy 11 rSB Stolen Base Runs Saved runs above average Molina 5 Lucroy -1 So even though Molina is clearly better at throwing out base runners, Lucroy's defense saved more runs in 2014 than Molina's did. And again: dWAR Molina 1.5 Lucroy 2.0 Now, I do not know nearly as much about defensive metrics as I know about the offensive ones. But from everything I'm seeing, from defensive WAR, to total runs saved, extra strikes, runs above average...Jonathan Lucroy, who may not be as good a catcher as Molina is overall, appears to have had a better season. Is it that shocking to even consider that maybe Lucroy deserved it? Molina threw out an incredible percentage of the base runners who tried to swipe a base on him. But again, you have to remember that other things factor into base stealing percentages, like the pitcher throwing the ball, and the shortstop/second baseman fielding the throw. Lucroy was throwing to Jean Segura, who slumped badly in 2014 after an All Star rookie year, and the second base platoon of Scooter Gennett (a rookie) and Rickie Weeks. What I'm saying is that maybe, just maybe, that low base stealing percentage is not just Lucroy's fault. And if we can accept that, all these other metrics pointing to Lucroy having a better season might just be accurate. We know that Molina was hurt much of the season. And when he came back, was he at 100%? Lucroy may not be the best catcher in the National League. But he might have been the best defensive catcher this year.

We DO have enough of these guys. Khris Davis played in 144 games last season putting up a 2.1 WAR to Lind's 1.9 in 96 games. He provides you a better approach, and his numbers are probably favored to increase playing 81 at Miller Park. Whoa, wait a minute. You're comparing Lind, who was in his ninth season in the Majors, to Davis, who was in his first full time season as a Major Leaguer? I would hope after being in the Majors for nearly a decade, he would have a more refined approach than Davis. At the same point in their careers, Davis blows Lind out of the water. Compare their first 700 or so plate appearances, Lind's between 2006-2008, and Davis' in 2013 and 2014: Lind: 725 plate appearances, 676 at bats. 90 runs, 183 hits, 38 doubles, 4 triples, 22 home runs, 94 RBI. .309/.436/.745 96 OPS + Davis: 702 plate appearances, 637 at bats. 97 runs, 160 hits, 47 doubles, 2 triples, 33 home runs, 96 RBI. .311/.487//797 117 OPS +. And Baseball America had Lind ranked as the #37 prospect before 2007. Davis was never ranked in the top 100. I hope you understand I'm just looking to clarify. I'm enjoying the discussion. I like looking at numbers, and trying to build a cohesive argument. I think in doing so, we learn more about our players. Davis didn't come out of nowhere, because we've known about his power potential for a while. Now he just needs to refine his game a bit. But to have 82 extra base hits in just a little over one year's worth of at bats, that's really pretty spectacular from a prospect that never hit the top 100. 600 ABs used to be the norm for a 162 game season for some players. That's dropped down a bunch. But Davis gets so many extra base hits, and he's not yet hit his potential. Just think, Sheetskout. If Brauny's thumb feels better, and he is able to regain much of his form, and Davis continues to evolve as an offensive force, what a nice 1-2 punch in the middle of the order. I want to be optimistic about our club's chances next year. But I have to be realistic. Let them show me that they can get a playoff spot, and make some noise, without having to go all in on a Cy Young Award winner for a half season rental. Let's develop our own Cy Young-caliber talent, you know? I bet within a year or so, Khris Davis's game will be far ahead of Lind's. Krush is going to be hitting 30 home runs a season on a consistent basis if he can just stay healthy. And I think he will.

First, I guarantee you he won't hit .321 next year. New league, new pitchers. He might hit .300, but I'm thinking .275-.280 is more likely. Secondly, no, we really don't have enough of "those guys". If Reynolds is gone, we have two guys that hit 20 home runs last year, Davis and Gomez. Ramirez might hit 20 again if he can stay healthy. Big if. He's hit 29 the last two years. Gomez should hit 20, or close to it again. Braun, who knows what to expect. I think 30 is more likely than a lot of people believe right now. I think his thumb will be better. But besides Gomez and Davis, who was losing playing time at the end of the year, and Braun if he bounces back, we really don't have any other power hitters. Lucroy will hit 15. Gennett 10. Lind may hit 20. But this is not the 2011 team anymore. We hit 150 home runs last year. Good, not great. We shall see.

Which numbers will stick, the average and OBP, or the 6 home runs in a half season. Because that won't fly.

I know baseball has changed. I study the game's history very closely. Yes, the A's have managed to be relatively successful with the smallest of salary footprints, and recently, they have been doing it with platoons. I also know that we don't have Billy Beane or his scouts working for Milwaukee. I know, too, that our division just got a lot tougher. One of the four or five best managers in baseball just signed with the Cubs. He's been successful with a cash strapped franchise in Tampa Bay. He's now coming to the Cubs, which I would say right now have the deepest minor league talent pool in baseball. And, the Cubs will have money to spend. They will be much better immediately. They knew they were out of it, and they got substantial Major League playing time for some of their best prospects. The Cardinals will still be tough. Their offense will reload. Losing Oscar Taveras will hurt them, and it will create a pall over the team. But they will take that tragedy, and turn it into a rallying cry. I know these Cardinals too well. They will be better next year, especially if Molina is healthy next year. Piscotty is now their future right fielder, and while he's not going to be Taveras, he's still going to be pretty darned good. The Pirates have more talent coming, too. And they got some of their best prospects major playing time while in a pennant race. The Reds had a lot of injured players, and they will be back next year. Only now Voto will have Frazier, and Mesoraco to help him and Bruce club the ball out of the park. And then there's their pitching. Johnny Cueto, after Kershaw and maybe Bumgarner, is the best pitcher in the NL. Wait until Robert Stephenson gets up to the Majors. Cueto, Cingrani Latos and Stephenson. Yeah...no. That's a foursome I do not want to face. We have our work cut out for us in a major way. There is lots of time before spring training. Let's see what else we do. If this is the first of several moves Melvin has planned out, okay, I will give him chance to put his cards on the table. But there needs to be more than this.

Firstly, I don't know that we've improved our first base issue at all. We have a new face, that is all I know. Lind's numbers were based off of 290 at bats, and in a league where he's seen the same pitchers for nine years. We're expecting him to get us 500 at bats in a new league with all new pitchers. The chances he will approach those numbers this year are slim. Do not forget, too, that in hitting .321, he only hit 6 home runs in those 290 at bats. Lastly, I'm not anxious. I'm merely making conversation in response to everybody who seems overjoyed by this move, and I am relating what I am seeing. I hope Lind hits 30 home runs, and helps us get to and win a World Series. I will be the happiest guy in Texas next fall if that happens. But I have been watching this game long enough, and I have watched Doug Melvin assemble teams long enough (he was the Ranger GM before coming to Milwaukee, and I live 15 minutes from the Ballpark In Arlington). Only time will tell if this team has truly improved based on today's signing. I am very cautiously optimistic. But I see a lot of hurdles.

I certainly hope he's able to do that. There will be an adjustment coming to the National League. He has never seen these pitchers before, so he will likely need a season to acclimate. His recent OBP + SLG pairings: Lind's OBP and SLG since 2009: 2010: .287 OBP, .425 SLG 2011: .295 OBP, ,439 SLG 2012: .314 OBP, .414 SLG 2013: .357 OBP, .497 SLG 2014: .381 OBP, .489 SLG I'm hoping that his recent trend continues. We have to hope it does, because if he reverts to old form, that's a big drop off in production that we can't afford. I'm being positive about this. I hope he shows us that this was a wise move. I'm just trying to look at it from as many different angles as possible. Looking at the infield right now, it's construction is just too precarious for my liking. An injury to Lucroy, and we're in deep trouble. I will look more at our options for Scooter's platoon mate. His mate, and the contingency plan if Ramirez goes down are my two biggest questions right now.

Rogers, Jiminez and Lind don't really provide anything more than Rogers, Jiminez and Reynolds would provide, except that Lind was a left handed bat that could only hit against right handed pitchers. You guys are placing an awful lot of responsibility in Jason Rogers lap, and nothing he has done at the Major League level yet has shown me that he can handle it. Rogers was never as highly touted as either Mat Gamel or Hunter Morris, and neither one of those guys ever showed they were up to the challenge. Yes, Reynolds was pretty bad against lefties last year. History tells us he will be better, unless we think that Reynolds has gone off a cliff when it comes to hitting lefties at age 31. And truth be told, I feel much more comfortable in his ability to bounce back, and a lot less comfortable that Jason Rogers is the answer at first base 75% of the time against left handed pitchers. Plus, here's something else to think about. Reynolds, if needed, can play third base. Should Aramis Ramirez, who will be 37 early in the 2015 season, get hurt, who plays third base with Reynolds gone? Ramirez missed 29 games last year, and 70 games in 2012. Adam Lind can't play third base. He never has. We're getting rid of Weeks, who was our second baseman against left handed pitchers. We need somebody to play second against lefties. We're getting rid of Mark Reynolds, who was our emergency backup third baseman. Who plays third if Ramirez gets hurt? We're counting on Jonathan Lucroy, who is our catcher, not getting nicked up, and being one of our first baseman against lefties, with Jason Rogers being the other option. That means Maldonado better not get hurt behind the plate. Because if he does, now Lucroy is the only catcher, meaning he can't play first base against lefties, meaning that Jason Rogers is it at first base. We have a boat that is springing leaks all over the place.

I'm not comparing Reynolds of 5 years ago. I'm comparing his total production over the last five years, just as I am comparing Lind's production over the last five years. Or, did you suddenly think that Lind, after hitting .237 in 2010, .251 in 2011, .255 in 2012, and .288 in 2013--suddenly turned into a .321 hitter? Whenever you are making a comparison of two players, you always look at more than the last year. Because basing a decision off of a one year comparison, especially when both players being compared are veterans, is absolutely silly.

Ya no kidding. I want nothing to do with Reynolds and his LHP splits: 2014 - .173 / .277 /.296 /.573 / 113 PA / 3 HR 2013 - .225 / .319 /.406 /.725 / 182 PA / 8 HR He cemented his get out of town card when he forgot how many outs there were in a pennant race. Sorry, I just don't want him back. If we kept Reynolds, he wouldn't be batting against lefties, remember? Rogers is supposedly the answer there. Because, it's sure not Lind if Rogers goes down. As bad as Reynolds was against lefties in 2014, he was still better than Lind. Lind against left handed pitchers in 2014: 2 for 33, .061 AVG, 11 K and a .223 OPS.

Well, I guess I'm the only person that's not thrilled with this move. In fact, I'm not only not thrilled, I'm scratching my head.I have no problem of moving Estrada if the player we get in return results in an improvement to the team, but show me where we've improved please? Lind has some definite pop, but he's a defensive liability. Basically, the same thing we said about Reynolds last year. His best year was in 2009, as we all know by now. Well, the man he is supposedly replacing, Reynolds, also had his best season in 2009. Kind in 2009: .305 AVG, 35 HR, 114 RBI. .370/.562/.932 Reynolds in 2009: .260 AVG, 44 HR, 102 RBI. .349/.543/.892 Since 2009, stats and splits per 162 games played: Lind .265 AVG, 30 doubles, 24 HR, 84 RBI, 48 BB, 124 K. Slash line of .321/.450/.771. Reynolds, same period: .212 AVG, 22 doubles, 32 HR, 82 RBI, 76 BB, 195 K. Slash line of .316/.430/.745 Adam Lind's OPS + the last 5 years: 109 Mark Reynold's OPS + the last 5 years: 102 By those numbers, Lind has a very slight advantage. Their OBP are almost identical, 5 pts apart. Slugging is a 20 pt difference. -------------------------------------------------------------------- Let's look at total WAR (Wins Above Replacement, first broken down by offense and defense: Total oWAR and dWAR, 2010-2014 Adam Lind: 5.4 oWAR, -6.1 dWAR Mark Reynolds: 6.5 oWAR, -6.3 dWAR Remember, these are totals for 5 years. Now, let's look at these expressed as averages per 162 games played. Average oWAR and dWAR, 2010-2014 Adam Lind: 2.0 oWAR, -1.2 dWAR Mark Reynolds: 2.1 oWAR, -1.0 dWAR Hmm. Reynolds has a 0.1 higher oWAR average over the last 5 years, and he has a .2 better dWAR on average over the last 5 years. Basically, they're a push, with Reynolds slightly better in both. They both provide pretty much the same offensive output, and are pretty much the same defensive liability. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- At least we got younger in the trade, right? Lind DOB: July 17, 1983. Age: 31.107 Reynolds DOB: August 3, 1983. Age: 31.090. Ok, no. Lind is actually a little over two weeks older than Reynolds. At least we are saving money with this move, right? Well, Reynolds is a free agent. So, all we can go by is what Reynolds was paid last year. Mark Reynolds 2014 salary: $2,000,000.00 Adam Lind 2015 salary: $7,500,000.00 Now Estrada is a free agent, too, so he's not on the books at all for 2015. But Lind mashes against righties! Lifeime splits: Adam Lind, left handed hitter Adam Lind vs rhp .293 AVG, 125 HR, 422 RBI. .349/.520/.860 Adam Lind vs lhp .212 AVG, 21 HR, 97 RBI. .257/.331/.588 Mark Reynolds, right handed hitter Mark Reynolds vs rhp .229 AVG, 166 HR, 437 RBI .314/.457/.772 Mark Reynolds vs lhp .231 AVG, 58 HR, 176 RBI. .351/.458/.809 Adam Lind is a left handed hitter. He is sensational against right handed pitchers, but a complete liability against left handed pitching. Mark Reynolds is a right handed hitter. He does not hit for high average against either right handed or left handed pitchers. But his production is remarkably similar. He has a career .772 OPS against right handed pitchers, and an .809 OPS against left handed pitchers. What does this mean? Lind could play against right handed pitchers, and provide a much needed left handed power hitter to the lineup. But, against left handed pitchers, he's a liability, and we already have a second baseman that cannot hit left handed pitchers. Reynolds could start against either a right handed pitcher, or a left handed pitcher, and have the same production. Summary: In giving up Marco Estrada, a pitcher who was wildly inconsistent as a starter, giving up home runs at a near historic clip, but a good pitcher out of the bullpen, we acquired Adam Lind. Now, the consensus seems to be that this was a good move for the Brewers. But was it? Adam Lind is a left handed power bat who is an exceptional hitter against right handed pitchers over the course of his career. But he is a complete liability against left handed pitchers. The Brewers platooned two second baseman last year, as Scooter Gennett, the de facto starting second baseman, could not hit left handed pitching. Assuming we go into the 2015 season with Lind as the only first baseman (Reynolds and Overbay not being signed), we will need to find somebody else that can platoon at first base, as he cannot hit left handed pitchers. So, now we have taken up two spots on the 25 man roster to play only against left handed pitchers. Now, maybe the lineup can be juggled. Jonathan Lucroy hit .304 against lefties last year, and he can play first. But there will be days he needs off to rest. And, if he gets injured, we still need somebody else to back Lind. Has Jason Rogers proven he is capable of playing first base at the Major League level? Some of you guy are talking like it's a foregone conclusion. He's had 10 at bats in the Majors, and a .422 OPS in really, really limited work. I would bet that Reyold's numbers against lefties are more likely to bounce back than Rogers is capable of wowing us in a platoon situation as the starter vs lefties. When we do not consider possible platoons, and examine Adam Lind replacing Mark Reynolds (essentially what is happening here), We get a player that is the same age as Reynolds (well, Lind is a few weeks older. Statistically, that is insignificant). Lind profiles the same as Reynolds. His OPS + over the last 5 seasons is 109. Reynold's over the same five year period has been 102. Their total WAR is a push. Offensive and Defensive WAR per 162 games played over the last 5 seasons is almost identical, with Reynolds having a slight edge offensively, and a slight edge defensively. The biggest difference here boils down to two things. Lind is a left handed hitter, while Reynolds was a right handed hitter. But Reynolds would cost substantially less money to retain for the 2015 season. The Brewers paid him $2 million in 2014. Adam Lind is due a salary of $7,500,000 in 2015. I have not seen the terms of the deal, but there has been no comment made in this thread about Toronto sending any cash with the trade. If this holds true, the Brewers have gone from a right handed Mark Reynolds that was equally productive against right and left handed pitchers to a left handed Mark Reynolds that is outstanding against right handed pitchers, but completely useless against left handed pitching. And the cost of this little flip? Basically, as it currently stands, the Brewers are paying $5.5 million more for the same player we had in 2014 for $2 million. Please show me where this move is beneficial for the Brewers? Because I just don't see it. I see the Brewers paying a lot more money to Lind when we could have just resigned Reynolds for $3 million, giving him a 50% raise, and taken that extra $4 million a year to help us land a good backup third baseman.

LOL, "the big picture?" Okay, I'll give "the big picture" a shot. Out of nothing, this franchise was created in 1969 as the Seattle Pilots. The very next season, the team moved to Milwaukee, becoming the Milwaukee Brewers, giving the city a Major League franchise for the first time since the Milwaukee Braves moved to Atlanta in 1966. The franchise has completed 46 seasons as a Major League team, compiling a 3,501-3,818 career record. That's a .478 lifetime winning percentage for the team. Put another way, this team's career win-loss record is 317 games below .500. There are now 162 games in a Major League season. We could win every single game in the 2015 season, and we would still be below .500. We would need to win the first 155 games in the 2016 season just to get back to .500. The franchise, in 46 seasons, has finished at or above .500 17 times. We have had 15 winning seasons in 46. We have won our own division a grand total of 3 times in 46 seasons. In those 46 seasons, we have appeared in the playoffs 4 times. 4 times in 46 seasons. The Milwaukee Brewers franchise, again, in 46 seasons, has won 2 playoff series, the 1982 American League Championship Series in 1982, and the National League Division series in 2011. In 46 seasons, the Brewers have complied a post season record of 14-18, for a .438 winning percentage. In 46 seasons, the Milwaukee Brewers have zero championships. Had the Kansas City Royals scored two more runs in game 7 of this year's World Series, Milwaukee would be the city with two or more professional sports franchises with the longest drought since winning a championship. So, currently we have the longest drought as a city at 44 years. But what about our young talent? In the April 11-23 issue of Baseball America, where all 30 Major League Teams had their minor league talent across all levels ranked 1-30, the Brewers ranked 29th. Second to last. The only team below us, the Los Angeles Dodgers, had the highest total salary in baseball at $235 million plus. With a new television deal, they can buy just about whatever they need. And where is that talent now? Well, I haven't done a complete analysis of both teams, going by Jonathan Mayo's top 100 prospect list on MLB.com, the Dodgers currently have four of the top 100 prospects. The Brewers? They do not have a single player in that top 100 list. Tyrone Taylor is currently our highest ranked prospect. And it is safe to say that the #3 prospect the Dodgers have, Joc Pederson, would easily be our #1 prospect in a heartbeat, if we acquired him. So, let's just sum up. Let's get that "big picture" that I have missed. The Brewers franchise: The past: 46 years in existence. 317 games below .500. 0 Championships. 1 World Series appearance in 46 seasons. 2 playoff series wins in 46 seasons. The future: Quite possibly, and highly likely, the very worst minor league system in all of baseball right now. Not a single elite prospect anywhere in our system. I'm sorry (sarcasm definitely intended), what are we missing? We have a manager that was furious after the end of the season. We have a team that was at one point 19 games above .500. A team that led their division most all of the year. A team that not only did not finish anywhere near 19 games above .500, we did not win the division. We did not make the playoffs at all. And we barely finished above .500. Mark Attanasio promised that he would "find who wanted to be in Milwaukee." The tough attitude told us that "heads were going to roll!" What happened? The hitting coach, and the first base coach, were fired. Because, obviously it was the first base coach's fault that more batters didn't reach first base on his watch. Now we have a new hitting coach, and a new first base coach. There's no stopping us now! The Cubs, who have gone over a century without a World Series win, likely now have the best minor league talent in all of baseball. I would bank on that. The Pirates have a minor league system that is in the top 10 in baseball. I would bank on that being so to start the 2015 season. The Cardinals may not have a top 10 minor league system anymore because they were the #1 minor league system before the 2014 season, and many of their top prospects graduated to the Major Leagues, losing their prospect status. The Reds are likely not a top 10 system in 2015 because all of their recent young, highly touted prospects, also have made it to the Major Leagues. There is a very real possibility that the Brewers will be picked to finish dead last in the National League Central by every major publication. They should be. Why? Our very best player, Ryan Braun, is a major question mark heading into this season because of his thumb. We still have no first baseman of the future, even though Prince Fielder left the Brewers before the 2012 season started. We have nobody in our system that's a clear successor to Aramis Ramirez at third base. Should he decide to retire, we don't know who would play third base next season. Hell, we're still looking for a first baseman. We have a second baseman that can't hit left handed pitching, and the man he platooned with in 2014 is now gone. And our shortstop, who looked so promising at the midway point of the 2013 season, has now had a full season of sub par play, where he has been one of the very worst producers in all of baseball. Now, it can be understood, because his 6 month old son tragically passed away. But my point is, we don't know if he will ever be able to bounce back. If he cannot, we do not have anybody at shortstop in our system who is ready to step in, and take his place. In fact, only our catcher Jonathan Lucroy keeps the entire infield from being a question mark. The big picture? The big picture is that the Brewers have been one of the worst franchises in Major League baseball history. We are nearing a half century of baseball, and we have never won a Championship, and it could very accurately be said that there is no team in baseball that is further away from contending for a championship than the Brewers. Even the Astros, who have been terrible, are further along than we are. All that young talent is starting to pay off for them. So, pray tell me, sir. What are we missing? What shining beacon of hope are we overlooking? What is there to tell us that 2015 will be any different than last year?

LOL, no.

The Giants also didn't have their second best pitcher for most of the season. Matt Cain, who was 53-35 between 2009-212 with a 2.93 ERA and 7.3 K/9 IP. They'd have been better with him. We can play the "well, the Brewers with $50 million more game would have made up the difference in record" game until we're blue in the face. The Giants are one win from their third World Series title in five years, while we're watching the playoffs. The Giants have done a better job across the board. You could give Doug Melvin an extra $100 million over those 5 years, and I guarantee you it wouldn't have made a difference. We still wouldn't have a single World Series win.

Just saw a picture of his car. It was completely trashed. Though the final report hasn't come out, it sounds like it was a single car accident. The car flipped. I don't want to speculate.

I extended my condolences on behalf of the Brewer family to the guys over on Gateway Redbirds. According to one of their members, Taveras, Kolten Wong and Carlos Martinez are best of friends, and Martinez was just completely distraught. I don't think he was thinking too straight, and I certainly don't think he meant to offend anybody. I'm sure that somebody asked him to take it down. I feel terrible for these guys. I've been watching Taveras come up through the minors. He was a real star in the making. I thought he was going to be a thorn in our sides for the next decade and a half. This is just tragic. He was on the cusp of stardom, and for his life to be snuffed out this way is just so wrong. His girlfriend was killed in the accident, too. It's been a real tough couple of months for the Brewers and Cardinals. One of their posters was at Miller Park when it was announced Jean Segura's son had passed away. And then there was the sudden death of Bruce Seid. We need to remember that when it comes to playing each other, we can hate the Cardinals because they are our rivals. But when the game is done, they're just like us, passionate baseball fans.

This is just wrong and a horrible use of statistics. 37-24 = .607 59-42 = .584 You replace Zack and Marcum with some AAA/vet scrubs and that team does not make the playoffs. I'm sorry, but this is just wrong. Show me where I said replace Marcum and Greinke with some AAA/vet scrubs? Talk about twisting somebody's words to make your argument.. You made the statement that without Greinke, we don't make the playoffs because our pitching sucked. Though Greinke and Marcum put up a sightly better winning percentage, they didn't start as many games as the rest of the staff. The offense we had covered up a lot of mistakes. We didn't need Greinke to have a Cy Young-caliber season again. Marcum didn't have to win 16 games for us. And since we didn't sign either, the money we ultimately committed to them for the season was available, and we could have signed a good free agent pitcher. Just as an example, they could have explored bringing Mike Fiers up a year early. He was 26 years old in 2011. In 2012 at Milwaukee, he was 9-10 with a 3.74 ERA in Milwaukee. At Nashville in 2011, he went 8-0 with a 1.11 ERA in 10 AAA starts, with 69 Ks in 64 2/3 IP, and a 0.974 WHIP. He was 4-0 at Nashville on August 4th, so he could have come up sooner than he did, and actually get used.

If the Brewers don't make the Greinke trade, the pitching sucks, and they miss the playoffs. Hmm. Did you know the Brewers actually had a better record in games not started by Greinke and Marcum? The Brewers in 2011 were 96-66 In games started by Greinke and Marcum, Milwaukee was 37-24. 13 games over .500. In games not started by Greinke and Marcum, Milwaukee was 59-42. 17 games over .500. If they had signed two free agent pitchers, or signed one free agent pitcher, and promoted one pitcher from Nashville, the Brewers only needed to go 32-29 in games started by these other two pitchers to win the NL Central. That would have given Milwaukee a 91-71. Consider if the Brewers hadn't given up prospects to rent CC Sabathia, Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. We would have Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Michael Brantley and Brett Lawrie. Would the team we had in 2014 been better had those trades not been made? In a word, yes. Now, I know WAR is hardly a perfect metric. But it's pretty good. So, let's consider who we had at first base, shortstop, center field and right field. First: Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbar. 0.7 and -0.3 WAR. Combined 0.4 WAR Second: Rickie Weeks and Scooter Gennett 0.2 and 1.3 WAR. Combined 1.5 WAR Short: Jean Segura 0.6 WAR Center: Carlos Gomez 4.8 WAR Right: Ryan Braun 1.0 WAR Total 8.3 WAR And what we might have had: First: Ryan Braun 1.0 WAR Second: Brett Lawrie 1.7 WAR Short: Alcides Escobar 2.4 WAR Center: Lorenzo Cain 5.0 WAR Right: Michael Brantley 7.0 WAR Total 17.1 WAR By the way, that 1.7 WAR from Brett Lawrie, who people think hasn't done anything at the Major League level, was in 282 at bats. And by the way #2, Lawrie is a career is a career .264 hitter vs right handed pitchers, and a career .265 hitter against left handed pitchers. Now, these comparisons assume that everything else is constant, which obviously is an impossibility. These guys on the Brewers would even have slightly different numbers if they played the exact same way, because the performance of their teammates around them affect their numbers. But, if we don't trade our prospects to rent these pitchers, we are better off . Oh, and then there's this: 2014 salaries: Lyle Overbay $1,500,000 Mark Reynolds $2,000,000 Rickie Weeks $11,000,000 Scooter Gennett $504,000 Jean Segura $534,000 Carlos Gomez $7,000,000 Ryan Braun $10,000,000 Total $32,538,000 2014 salaries: Ryan Braun $10,000,000 Brett Lawrie $516,100 Alcides Escobar $3,000,000 Lorenzo Cain $546,000 Michael Brantley $1,500,000 Total $15,562,100 So, for $32,538,000 we got 8.3 WAR when we could have gotten 17.1 WAR for $15,562,100. In plain English, we could have more than doubled the wins above replacement we got from the first base, second base, shortstop, center field and right field positions for less than half of what we ended up playing. Not only that, but we would have gotten younger at every single position in doing so. But yeah, those two playoff appearances we made where we won nothing at all was sure worth sacrificing our draft and develop strategy.

Do you still have them for Michael Brantley, too, MH? I know they're not relevant to the playoffs right now, but I'd love to see what was expected of Brantley. In a cruel twist of fate, we'd already sent three players to Cleveland when we got CC Sabathia for those 17 starts. Brantley was the player to be named later. The Indians knocked that one out of the park.

I sometimes think people get a little carried away with OPS +, especially when it comes to the shortstop position. Hardy was an All Star with the Brewers in 2007, and his OPS + was only 101 that year. Did the Orioles overspend to retain Hardy? Probably. Two questions. Can they afford to do so? Yes. Would there have been any other free agent shortstops with a skill set comparable to Hardy's? Absolutely not. Did you look at his numbers compared to other shortstops? As far as OPS + goes, Hardy will be in the top 10 of all Major League shortstops next season if healthy, maybe top 5. That's pretty good, in my opinion. Did you know that J.J. Hardy leads all Major League shortstops with 86 home runs the last four seasons, and he's fourth in RBI with 276? Over the last four seasons, including 2014, which was well below his standards, he's had the second highest WAR of all Major League shortstops. He is a 3.5-4.0 win a year player because of his glove, and his home run power. Of the guys with higher OPS +, would you rather have any of these guys? Jhonny Peralta, who tested positive for PED? Ian Desmond? Yes, he's a 20 HR 20 SB guy, but he only had a 103 OPS +. And he struck out 185 times. Desmond hit .277 with runners in scoring position, and a terrible .186 with 2 outs, and runners in scoring position. Hardy, in a down year for him offensively, hit .315 with runners in scoring position, and .341 with two outs and runners in scoring position. What about Asdrubal Cabrera? He was great in 2011, and since then, he's been going downhill. Jose Reyes? Still a pretty good hitter, but a -0.8 dWAR. The only shortstops in the Majors next year that I would take over Hardy are Troy Tulowitzki and Andrelton Simmons. Simmons showed some good power in 2013 with 17 home runs, but his average is hovering in the low .250s. He hit .289 in 49 games as a rookie in 2012, and I think eventually that will be closer to his norm. I think the kid's a .280-.290 hitter in his prime, with 15 to 20 home runs. I think he has a good eye. He doesn't strike out much at all. In 1,234 plate appearances the last two seasons, he's only struck out 115 times. He's a .253 hitter vs righties, and a .245 hitter vs lefties. Simmons turned 25 a month ago, and in 2.17 seasons in the Majors, he already has an 11.7 dWAR. How impressive is that? At his current rate, he'll have a 20 + dWAR by the time he's 28 years old. In the history of baseball, there are only 45 players with a 20 + career dWAR. Simmons has the tools, if he continues to grow as a hitter, to be one of the top 5 shortstops to ever play the game. It will be hard to place him at his career's end because defensive statistics from the dead ball era are inadequate. We'll never know just how great somebody like Honus Wagner really was defensively. But when Simmons is compared against the shortstops of the modern era, I can't wait to see what he does. And he and Tulowitzki, the best shortstop in the game by a pretty wide margin, are the only guys I'd take for Hardy. http://imageshack.com/a/img537/1648/8C4ZO9.png