Austin Tatious

Wow, big move! Perez to second. Outfield of Santana, Phillips, Brinson would be fun, although they may ease Brinson in. It'd be nice for Broxton to show sign of life. I'd still like to see another reliever come up. Maybe two. I'm going to say it will happen in due course.

Prayers and best wishes to the Shaw family.

1.9 DL Hall The Brewers pick in a fairly bad spot, particularly if the board falls the way we picked it. There is no clear cut guy at 9. You could argue that 9-17 or 20 or so are fairly equivalent. Pretty bad year to select at the end of the top ten. I have no problem with a first baseman at nine if you had an impact, middle of the order, guy. Princie went seventh out of a FL high school and was well worth the pick. i don't see Pratto as having that pedigree. Unfortunately, there are not the upside pitchers as there were in 2016. So, any of the high schoolers are full of questions, whether it's control or the repertoire. I'd definitely go with the upside guys. I'd be very interested in Baz but have not seen a single hint that the Brewers are connected to him. I particularly like that Baz has an assortment of pitches to work from. Carlson and Rogers are the other guys most interesting to me, although none of the high school pitchers really stand out. I wouldn't rule out Petersen because his metrics look good from an analytical standpoint. I wouldn't take him as I am wary of college guys who surge late in their careers, and I question his upside. The Brewers have plenty of "guys." I'd draft for upside and if it bombs out like it did with Mark Rogers, that's part of the deal when you try to get greatness. Settling for ok players isn't going to get you to WS success in a market like Milwaukee. At 34, I would be intrigued by Seth Romero if he gets there. I think he could be signed because of his prior antics and the Brewers didn't shy away from Lucas Erceg despite his past drama. You come out of here with Baz (or Hall) and Romero and we can rejoice in the streets.

We are in the second year of data on Broxton showing him to be a streaky guy. He started last year insanely cold. He just could not get a hit. He bounced back and forth to CS, fixed his swing, and was scorching hot down the stretch before he was hurt. This year he's been nothing but streaks. Cold, red hot, insanely cold. When he goes cold, it's like a mental struggle for him where he's essentially useless. He needs to overcome that. By definition, hitting is mentally challenging. If he can survive better through some valleys and at least get some hits, he can be respectable. He's also got the potential to defend better. My bottom line is Broxton would likely not be my long term solution. But he still has tools and at 27 can still put it together. If he finishes strong and ends with overall nice numbers, you may be able to get a return for him because he brings some talent that's hard to find.

1.8 Bukauskus It will likely be one of the VA guys if our mock is off, but this is the way I will go with this board.

1.7 Hasely

Your mock makes sense and I could see it play out that way. I might also include DL Hall and Shane Baz as being under consideration. I've not read any link between Baz and the Brewers, though.

Good to see Bubba Derby thriving. Interesting that he got outdueled by a Braves 2015 first rounder, Mike Soroka. He's 19 and in double A. The Braves do a great job drafting and developing upside pitching. They may be staring at McKenzie Gore in the first round this year, but may take a high upside position player.

1.6 Pavin Smith

Good, we need as much fresh thinking in the process as possible. Scouting is the foundation and vital. But, ultimately, having a guy with intellectual horsepower to make smart big picture decisions is critical. The Brewer thought process has been a train wreck. Since Jack Z left, it's been a comedy of errors. That's been almost a decade. Whereas, in the decade before that, the Brewers killed it, drafting Sheets, Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Braun, Lucroy, Cain, Odorizzi, Brantley, Jeffress, Gallardo, even Lawrie and on and on. It's been a staggering dropoff, like a light switch went off. Analytics are great, but it doesn't sound like you can get exit velocity and metrics like that. I wonder why baseball doesn't get 1,000 kids together at a combine and measure things like exit velocity, arm strength, physical tools, speed, measurements, and whatever else, plus do medicals. That way, you avoid a Dylan Covey. Maybe that's expensive, but you split the cost 30 ways and potentially save big money on the wrong bonus babies. I'd also be running historical data on prior scouting. For example, if a high school pitcher has a live arm and lacks control, how often will that guy develop control if he's athletic. Or how about the guy with good control but lacks secondary pitches. How often does that guy develop the pitches. If you were comparing these attributes, which guys have a better shot. Or, evaluate a middling guy for a couple of years in college then lights it up as a junior. Is the longer haul the predictor or is it the light bulb turning on. You can plug in certain physical attributes and potentially mental to generate predictors using historical data. I have my own ideas on these issues, in direct contrast to the Brewers' approach, but I'd wonder what the data shows.

He totally fits the profile of what I was hoping for as a fourth piece in the deal. 18 years old and a twitchy middle infielder. He's skinny at 155 lb but, who knows, in four or five years he may be 185. He's a lottery ticket.

1.5 Austin Beck I really like how the Braves approach the draft, so they may very well make the smart choice and grab Gore. But, I'm going to guess Beck, who is also a nice, toolsy prospect. The Braves are well run and draft well. I think they will be a force in the east in 2-3 years. And then stay good.

One guy who I wouldn't trade anytime soon is Travis Shaw. I believe he is only 26. I doubt he keeps up his current pace but .296 10 and 40 is tremendous. Even if he cools off, he should still be solid. As much as we like Erceg or Gatewood, our hope is eithrr could be doing what Shaw is already doing. Now in 2-3 years, maybe we have a good problem to have with multiple options, or perhaps Shaw declines and this year is illusory. Regarding Tristan McKenzie, we need to draft our own version of that profile. Multiples. The Indian brass should be sent to a mental asylum if they gave him up.

It's an interesting idea. It's tough to get a TOR guy that is too far advanced but there have been guys like Kopech, Espinoza, Synderdgaard, and some others moved. I think you'd try to get an A or A+ type guy, possibly a newbie to AA. I think it would be tough to get a more advanced guy. It's obvious Guerra knows how to pitch. If he keeps it up the second time through, you'd have confidence in him overall. I'd keep a team like Boston on speed dial. Dombrowski is not afraid to be decisive in pulling the trigger on deals. And they have that added arms race with the Yankees. The Yankees, of course, could be an option, but I don't know they'd give up pitching. But, since Guerra is not going to be expensive, literally any team could get on him for a trade, including Miami, TB...anyone. He's not just a big market option. Too bad he's not 24. You wouldn't have enough napkins to wipe the drool off our faces.

Good to see Burnes do so well again, up a level. What did Harrison do that caused them to throw behind him and then at him? He's 6'3 and a football player. With his athleticism, he can probably hold his own in a fight.

Thanks for crunching the numbers. It's good to look at in one place.

Isn't Villar's RBI total low? I thought that'd be more like 75

Probably Gallardo.

1.4 Royce Lewis Lewis is a nice prospect but I'd take Gore. I think it will be Lewis, though.

Reading your bios, of the pitchers we focused on, I might have to prioritize Carlson, then Hall, then Baz, then Petersen. That's assuming Greene, Gore, Wright, and Bukauskus are gone.

Interesting comments (video) from Rockin' Robin https://mobile.twitter.com/BaIIplayer/status/868310453822386176/video/1

1.3 Hunter Greene. No brainer if he gets to three.

You may be right, because realistically he's probably 5'11 and you'd like to see a bit of better control. You'd love a 6'5 guy with downward plane and great movement. But, unfortunately, this draft is a bit light on super projectable starters as you get down to nine. JB may be short for a starter, but he has a tremendous slider, a strong fastball that he can pace as a starter, and a developing changeup. He knows how to pitch. I wouldn't be drafting him at nine to be a reliever. But, if I end up being wrong, at the very least he could hopefully be a closer. That's a good fallback if necessary. I think he ends up as a 2 or 3 starter.

If available, I'd prefer Pavin Smith over Adell and Beck. The Brewers may not agree because they'd like a more toolsy guy than Pavin Smith. Personally, I think Smith is one of the surest players in the draft and could be a very solid bat, perhaps in the two or three hole in the order. My main interest in Smith is his unbelievable mastery of the strike zone, and his consistency. He's not having a one-off season. Moreover, the organization as a whole has too many guys who strike out at high rates. It'd be nice to get a guy like Smith who doesn't strike out, yet still hits and hits. Beck and Adell may have tools but who knows if they make consistent contact. Who knows, you may get a Mike Trout. But, right now, for where we are as an organization, if you're going to reach for tools like that, I'd rather it be for a pitcher if one is worthy of 9. I haven't seen many projections where Bukauskus gets to 9, but he's similar to Pavin to me philosophically, but as a pitcher. I think you'd be getting a solid 2 starter who could be better than Sonny Gray. I'd love it if we could get Bukauskus. I hadn't even considered that to be a possibility.

Cincinnati at 1.2. Brendan McKay as a pitcher. I have seen some speculation that they'd take Greene but in the end I think they get the high floor pitcher in McKay. And I'm not just saying that because I'd hate to see Greene go within the division.