Austin Tatious

As others have said, I like the way they handled those double digit round picks, going for more upside with high school guys. It may not be the type of thing you do every year, but it fits our circumstances now. We have plenty of organizational depth where we've drafted the Trey Yorks, Dustin DeMuths, and Blake Allemands of the world. You pool your money on higher upside high schoolers and hope you hit a lottery ticket or two. And, sure, we signed everyone but if somebody like Lemons or, God forbid, Lutz didn't sign, you could throw money at a Campbell (who we didn't get) as a backup plan.

Ray; Clark; One of Diplan, Ponce, Zach Brown; and Orimoloye or Coulter Lot of upside there to entice Oakland. Lottery ticket in Orimoloye. Two high end OF prospects which they need, and one solid pitching prospect. Brewers get a starter with control and still have Lutz, Harrison, Cordell, and Phillips in the OF as well as Burnes, Woodruff, Ortiz, Peralta and Medeiros at pitcher.

Lot of spin and distortions here, but just to be clear: Chris Sale Madison Bumgarner CC Sabathia Max Scherzer Stephen Strasburg the late Jose Fernandez (still recent pick) Zach Grienke David Price Gerrit Cole Clayton Kershaw Justin Verlander All were first half of first round draft picks. Other than, who, Scherzer, for the most part, they were not ever moved as prospects. Whether a guy left in free agency after being a big leaguer is wholly immaterial to the point. I'm also not here to talk about arms who are a level down. They could of course be found later but they aren't the needle movers like I listed. A guy like Fulmer was still drafted in the top 40. It's not like he was a low round pick. McKenzie and Kopech were in the 30's but got nice bonuses. A guy like Kopech or Syndergaard got moved but in deals for top major league pitching. It's not the norm as my list above demonstrates. If you want to get needle mover pitchers, you get them high in the draft and/or with bonuses. When they are that good, they are not moved as prospects. Right now, you look at top pitching prospects, and they aren't getting moved for the most part. You draft a Corey Ray, sure he can be moved. The top pitcher, of course not. And further, unlike the Yankees or Bosox, the Brewers can't just go buy a big time pitcher. They aren't buying Scherzer. They are buying Suppan. That actually further underscores the organization's failures and poor strategic thinking and execution in developing home grown starting pitching talent. Obviously, you will find misses in the pitching area because of the risks are plenty. But that risk is worth the reward. You may have to take multiple cracks at it. This franchise's history actually proves the point. Sheets was great but the overall deep failure to draft and develop top pitching has put a ceiling on what could be done. With a statistical understanding, the chances of finding a pitcher of the ilk that I described above later in the draft is very low. If you look at all the available pitching prospects taken after the top 40 or so picks, how many ninth round pitchers bombed for every gem like DeGrom? There are a thousand mediocrities or subpar guys for every top pitcher taken after the top 40. The odds are incredibly low. Pointing to an extreme exception is divorced from reality and grasping at straws. And I am not saying you always take a pitcher. And it's not even that any pitcher is the answer. Medieros was not the right approach either. Good arm, good athlete, but lacked fine tuning. If you want an underslot guy, get a better prospect. You don't want a pitcher at number 5? Fine, then why even take a kid with huge swing and miss in his game, without compensating it with pop, who is not a high average guy and is an average defender who did not even play center in college. That's the thought process at number 5 overall when you could get a bona fide pitching prospect, someone you would never consider trading, as other teams do, or even a high talent kid like Blake Rutherford if you are bent on taking an outfielder. As it stands now, we may have our young talent moving up as we hope some of the young pitching emerges like a Jake Arrieta did and become stars. But we could just as easily be looking at Ortiz huffing and puffing through long innings and pitch counts, or Bickford who may pop a bad drug test at any time, or Hader who may or may not ever have good command. Our hopes rest with those guys and hopefully Woodruff and Burnes are for real. We need some good fortune in the pitching department. But that does not change the flawed thinking with first round assessments and failures. The Brewer success is in spite of this first round mis-management, obviously not because of it.

The biggest problem is the Brewers whiff anyway. Of course you're going to miss on some high arm talent guys because the risk is higher. But if you look at the high end pitchers around baseball, a high majority were first round picks, mostly in the top half. I have no problem losing a Mark Rogers due to injury because we tried to get the arm talent. That's part of the deal. If the high end guy isn't there, sure go after position players. I'm not saying take any pitchers for the sake of it. I want high arm talent guys. You see a Triston Mackenzie or Michael Kopech, identify them, take them and pay overslot. You'll miss some but the reward is such a high magnitude move that it's worth it. I'm in the camp that you need a couple of top starters to be a tough out in the playoffs. You can find exceptions but that's the way to go. This franchise is a great test case for how you lack high end success without developing your own top shelf pitching. It causes a cascade of problems including trading the farm for rentals or investing big payroll on back half of the rotation starters and/or strapping yourself with long term deals like Looper, Suppan, Wolf, Lohse. This wasn't a great year at 9 for top pitching but I'd still go with Baz or other pitcher based on the data they have. I sure wouldn't take a pitcher just for the sake of it. It may be that Hiura was the right guy, especially if the DH comes to the NL but it heightens the problem with Clark and especially Ray. Ray may be ok but I would look at him late teens or so. Fifth overall? If you were going OF at least do a Blake Rutherford. Well I've been outspoken on that even though Ray's a great kid. I made the point then, but the minute you drove Ray off the lot, his value was inevitably going to be lower than a number of guys taken after him. That says a lot. I don't put Hiura in the catastrophic category because I think he will hit. I like Lutz in the way I liked Gatewood and Harrison. You can find these top shelf position guys outside the top 30 picks. When there are high upside pitchers you've got to snag them IMO. As for trading, it's hard to pry away high end pitching prospects in trades. Ortiz and Bickford and that ilk are nice prospects but they aren't in the Chris Sale, Verlander, David Price, Keyshaw, Bumgarner, Greinke, Sabathia, Jose Fernandez zone. Ortiz labors past the fifth inning and hasn't dedicated himself to losing weight. Hader is good but still needs to improve his command. Bickford lacks judgment. Hopefully Burnes gets there. I loved the pick at the time. I put my thoughts out there and stand by them. You hope to be wrong and everything goes well but we are drifting into ten years of whiffing on first rounders until 2017. The easy money has been on my side of the argument. There's difficulty finding any other franchise in all of professional sports who has completely misunderstood risk/reward and analysis of the first round draft process more than the Brewers over the past decade.

You're obviously a respected, knowledgeable, and honorable poster. My intent about using the word informed wasn't meant to say that only one view is possible. That's obviously not the case. I was trying to get at some people who look at these things closely, as compared with casual fans, have that view. I should have used the word "some" but I didn't intend any distress for my point. I disagree on drafting pitchers, but that's the fun of message boards. It's not interesting if everyone has the same view. And beyond that, some people can be persuasive.

Of the outfielders, I'd hang on to Harrison. If he puts it together, and he may be doing so, he can be really good. Of course, I'm not moving Brinson and we won't have to. Ray, Clark, and one of Cordell or Phillips is who I'd dangle there for big returns. Having looked at Hader, I ain't moving him. He needs to improve his command but he may just do that. Like the upside there. Burnes and probably Woodruff are out too. It's funny. Go through our prior threads. When we were sellers, informed fans said, you're never getting so and so from certain organizations, whether it was the mid rotation starter from the Dodgers or Rangers or Robles or whatever. Fans respected that some guys are no touch. Now, you have to give the Brewers respect consistently. Same thing, we ain't moving certain guys. We still have depth to make deals. If you look at various proposed deals on the web, and see what other organizations would be giving up, we are in good shape. We can outmatch other offers without breaking into our untouchables. Or we can pass. The most unwise acquisition is the ok starting pitcher. The cost is out of whack. That's why informed fans want high arm talent pitchers drafted high or with int'l bonus money.

And maybe lose 35 lbs

Does anyone have a good sense of his arm strength when healthy? If we send him to left, is he as bad as Khris Davis' noodle arm out there? He does have top of the order hitting potential. I still like Isan Diaz at second anyway.

This is encouraging and bodes well for us IMO. I think we are starting to really turn around our Latin American presence. It starts at the relationship level with the handlers and you couple that with a more fair and equitable system in the money allotment allocated to the franchises. The last couple of years, we've landed some real talent with potential: Abreu, Carmona, Ernesto, Melendez, Martinez, Rodriguez et al. One of these years we may convert a top 1 or 2 guy internationally because one of our relationships will come through that way. We are on that path IMO, but regardless, there are a number of kids we've picked up who could really emerge. The process is really kicking into gear now (notwithstanding Arcia and W. Peralta, who were too few and far between) as those of us on this website can see, but in 2-3 years the more casual fans may be pleasantly surprised by our top ten prospect list having 3-4 of these guys up there. Teams like the Yankees, Bosox, Rangers and others have exploited that in the past, and just maybe we can close that gap. You have to cultivate the relationships with the right folks, and we are seeing that in the DR and Venezuela.

So basically any prospect that has their stock down you'd be willing to trade only? I understand that certain prospects are our favorites but I think Stearns will need to be a little more open minded if we plan on adding a significant piece. If not, it's Jhoulys Chacin or BUST! My list A versus B wasn't good versus bad. I'd argue that a number of the guys I have on my movable list have value. It's like when we traded off our veterans the past couple of years. Some teams had guys on their no touch list for whatever reason. There are a number of guys on B who I would like to see develop and they have value but you need to give something up. Take Dubon as an example. I like him but even more than that, for positional reasons, I'd prefer to keep him. If Arcia or our 2b or 3b got hurt, I like him. Ponce, Diplan, and Peralta are nice prospects but I need to be able to give up something from the pitching ranks. Ray was a top 5 pick. Clark was taken fifteenth. Medeiros was taken twelfth. They should have value. Conversely, Kirby has been hurt. Bickford has an arrow down due to his lack of judgement and now injury but I kept him. There may be pitchers in group two better than these two guys. Kirby was a guy I liked coming out of the draft, as were Harrison and Gatewood. Overall, I made my picks based on what I see coming up and how I'd like to see it fit together, keeping in mind who else we have. We are also informed by what other teams offered us while we were dealing guys off. They didn't just hand out anybody we asked for. You have to respect who is off the table, and I'd put my Group A off the table. But then again, I'm not dying to make a marquee trade. Acquire a reliever for group 2 folks, possibly enticing. Negotiation 101. Bargain from a position of strength, don't be desperate, and be willing to walk away. We have the ability to take all of those positions. Whatever we do, I hope it's with an eye toward controllable talent with upside. Stearns has been great and I'd be shocked if he messed up.

I'd take Quintana but would not bet the farm on Gray. A: Guys who I would not trade in any package: Woodruff, Hader, Burnes, Ortiz, Brinson, Harrison, Gatewood, Dubon, Erceg, Diaz (Hiura and Lutz not eligible yet), Feliciano, Taylor Williams, Bickford, Kirby, Supak B: good movable parts: Clark, Ray, Medeiros, Cordell, Phillips, Lara, Nottingham, Ponce, Peralta, Coulter, Orimoloye, Diplan There's enough good prospects in group B to make deals. If someone insists on someone in group A, counter with B guys or walk away.

100% pass. I'd hang up the phone.

Lol nice.

Do you know what the minimum offer was? I am not sure the Brewers have the cash in their allotment.

Happy to hear the Lutz news as I was keeping an eye on that. Good value for where they got him. It harkens me back a bit to Joey Gallo, who I liked coming out of a Vegas high school. Big kid with pop. Gallo does not have the full hit tools that Lutz has, though. But, whereas I was disappointed we didn't pounce on Gallo, we got a nice value pick who can be a middle of the order bat who will still have decent average and also defend well in corner OF spots. Brinson, Phillips, Harrison, and Lutz are some OF guys I absolutely wouldn't move. Let's see it play out with these guys. Plus, I like some of our Latin prospects from the past couple of years. Abreu, Carmona (IF for now), Rodriguez, Ernesto Martinez, Larry Ernesto, Melendez. I hope a couple of those bubble up big time. You get enough lines in the water, and some fish are going to bite.

I'd expect Hiura to perform at a level comparable to his peers, i.e., top ten picks who were advanced college bats from the last couple of years. Ian Happ, Bregman, Swanson, Benintendi from 2015 got to the majors by 2017. Ray is in A+ ball one year after being drafted and will need to improve dramatically to be a major leaguer by 2018 and be on that pace. Senzel from 2016 is doing quite well and got bumped to AA where he does not look overmatched. Unlike Ray, I will be surprised if Hiura does not come through and be a MLB player two years after being drafted, i.e., by 2019. The one glitch would be if he has a major arm surgery that sets him back.

Torres should not be put in any position where the situation matters. Wang is twenty-five years old and ready. Enough already, get him up here.

Great effort by Nelson. Wicked movement. I'm glad we've been patient with him.

I agree with Patrick. Derrick Rose is a ball dominant guy with low percentage on outside shooting and I don't think he defends well. He is literally the opposite of a player I'd want. When Giannis drives and creates, we need guys who can catch and release and shoot at a high rate from deep. Remember what Paxson and Kerr used to do working off MJ's drawing of the defense? That's what we need. Delladova is a tough kid, which I like, but he lets you down too much with his shooting. Brogdon can bring the intangibles Delladova brings so I'd love to get rid of Delladova and find a sharpshooter who can defend in the 3 and D way.

I think it's a good idea but I'd wait a year at the least, possibly two. But sometime in the near future, I think we should try to get this done.

I had to do a double take. We signed Ernesto Martinez after we acquired the cash allotment from the Magnifico trade, finishing the '16-'17 cycle. Now we signed Larry Ernesto today in the new '17-'18 cycle.

I'd keep it in house. I'd keep a laser focus on the big picture. We have some prospects like Woodruff, and even Burnes eventually, who may become stalwarts. Maybe Burnes ends up being Greg Maddux or Jake Arrieta. His performance and numbers speak for themselves. He's roaring through the minors as a pitcher the way Ryan Braun once did as a hitter. Chase, Nelson, Woodruff, Burnes, and Davies. No need to get a middling starter from somewhere else. The difference from when we were signing all the Suppans and Loopers and Lohses et al, is that we have some in-house guys. If Ortiz can work into later innings, he may be a factor. I'd try to get him to lose 40 lb though. Others in our system may be solid relievers, when you look at a number of guys. If Hader doesn't turn the corner on command, he can be a bullpen guy, but there are also guys like Wang, Ponce, Taylor Williams, Bickford, maybe even Medeiros. Who knows what Kirby can be if he gets healthy. He was highly regarded, pre-injury. Devin Williams may be a decent reliever once he's healthy too. You'd still like some top echelon pitching prospects but at least we have some bodies who may come up over the next 1-2 years. I don't want to disturb any of that over some second rate set up reliever who will cost an arm and a leg.

Aguilar looks like he has a nice hit tool to me. He can hit for average and power. He comes through in the clutch. He moves pretty well on D. The sample size is an issue. As pitchers adjust to him, will he counter. Going through the league a second and third time can be challenging. What I like though is that he's a versatile hitter. He's going to be less susceptible to weaknesses that can be exploited than, say, a dead pull hitter or a guy who can't recognize offspeed pitches. Don't rule out that he ends up better than Thames and turns out to be a real find.

Corbin Burnes is dominating double A. Nothing is different in his performance, even moving up a level. This guy is going to be knocking on the door in Milwaukee....soon.

I think he just meant communicating with Lucroy.