Austin Tatious

Tod Johnson is an analytics guy who now oversees amateur scouting operations and preparations for the first-year player draft for Milwaukee. You'd have to believe he'd like Petersen's peripherals. Now whether his raw potential matches DL Hall or Carlson is a different question. Petersen looks like he may have David Wells upside. I think I might still take Hall or even Carlson over Petersen although Petersen may also be a good pick.

I was looking at Medeiros' numbers and one thing that gives me hope is that his walks are down. But, he is still giving up a lot of hits, although not as many as last year. His whip was near a whopping 2 last year and he's brought it down. He does get a lot of strikeouts. So, some of his peripherals are looking better, as they should be, repeating a level. He's hardly new to this as he is in his fourth year in the minors. I wouldn't list him in our top prospect lists by any stretch, but there is hope he can be a reliever. If his performance goes up, particularly as a starter, sure we could lift him in the rankings, but not until you actually see it.

I was about to say the same thing. His pitch recognition seems to have fallen apart. He seems off balance. Baseball is a very tough game mentally as we all know. Once you go in a funk, the simplest thing can get difficult. Overcoming the mental challenges is as tough of an issue in baseball as there is.

Before you start counting winning seasons, you have to keep in mind he will get a portion of credit for the future seasons that he has set up. So, that grade is an incomplete. In 2020, if this core wins 55 games and makes a deep run, Hammond will have been a big part of that. That's what I mean by the benefit of hindsight when we see what this group ends up doing. Whatever mistakes he made, they led to where we are now, and you're not disputing we are in a good spot to jump forward from here.

Nice work. I have been reading them all. Good resource in one spot.

Arcia is hitting in the mid .240's and has a nine game hitting streak. This is good news as he's getting good experience and development time at a young age. Now, you might say, his OPS is .630 or whatever. That's low, but I'd say two things. One, his body isn't developed like some other guys. He will get stronger in time and I'd suggest he will hit some gaps with more authority in future years. The important thing to me is he's getting hits. Some of those singles will turn into doubles in a year or two. If he's got a mid .700's OPS, that's pretty good with the defense he's bringing. But getting the hits is a start. By the way, we don't discuss him much, but Darnell Coles has been a spectacular hitting coach.

Couldn't agree more. At least Ray has been showing signs of life, although I'd like to see more pop from him.

Woodruff has to be close too... Totally. I'm more excited to see him than anyone else. He just sounds really solid. This time next year, I hope to be saying the same about Burnes.

Wang coming up would be a nice story. It's been three years since his rule 5 season and he's still only 25. He's got a 2.53 era at CS although he has as many hits as innings. Either way, I would say he's close.

For a guy who drafted Giannis, Thon, Parker, and Brogdon, plus traded for Middleton and Snell in steals, there sure is a lot of unwarranted hatred of Hammond. These will be the same people pining away for him in the future when they look back with the benefit of hindsight as to where he left us as a franchise. I really liked his vision in the draft. He's left us in as good of a shape as you can imagine. For where we were a few years ago with the two idiots at guard and not much else, our hopelessness has turned into unbridled optimism.

I agree. He doesn't look healthy. I'd put Perez out there. Now watch him go 4-4 with two homers and five RBI.

Hader and Ortiz both need to work on their command and throw strikes. Who knows where we are with Bickford. There has already been talk of him being a bullpen guy. Ponce has not really taken it to another level. Medeiros, and his five handle ERA in a repeat year, is probably not a top 30 prospect anymore. Even his last blind supporters have gone quiet. Let's hope he can still become a loogy. There is some value to that. Regarding Hader, sure he has electric stuff. But I'd pump the brakes on any Andrew Miller comps until he throws strikes. Command for a pitcher is like accuracy for an NFL quarterback. It's the first thing you need. It doesn't matter how hard you throw if you're spraying it all over the place. Woodruff, Burnes, and maybe even Supak could possibly be the best hopes as future starters. There aren't enough guys yet. We need impact pitching additions in the draft, in the international market, and via trade in the worst way. We don't need strikeout prone left fielders. If there is a hot pitching prospect in another system, it's almost impossible to pry him away through a trade. This MLB draft will be interesting. I think we get a starter at nine (maybe even a southpaw) and another pitcher at 34 or 46.

I'm very interested to see how Burnes does at AA and how Supak does at A+.

If you take away the consensus top 6 picks (Hunter Greene, Kyle Wright, Brendan McKay, Royce Lewis, JB Bukauskas, and MacKenzie Gore), who would be the top half a dozen guys (in order), as of today, who you would take for Milwaukee at 9 (not all of them would be available, but after the big six, there is a lot of shuffling). I am not really done researching, but if any of the big 6 get to 9, I'd run the card up. After that, here would be my top 6: 1 DL Hall, HS, LHP 2. David Peterson, 4yr, LHP 3. Pavin Smith, 4yr, 1B 4. Sam Carlson, HS, RHP 5. Shane Baz HS, rhp 6. Nick Pratto, HS, 1B/LHP (7. Keston Hiura, 4yr, 2B/OF) I passed on Beck and especially Abell. I like Beck as a prospect, though. Pratto seems more and more intriguing. I might bring him up as we get closer.

I have seen the Twins linked to Wright so I will agree 1.1 Wright. I think he has potential to be an upper echelon starter. He is a college guy, and particularly from a Vandy program that's done a nice job producing starting pitchers. If it were me, I would take Hunter Greene, though. He's just too electric. Wright may be safer but there is tremendous upside with Greene.

Good articles on Carlson. Fastball, slider as an out pitch, and changeup. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/531/entry-8879-sam-carlson-2017-mlb-draft/ http://www.brewcrewball.com/2017/5/23/15649978/milwaukee-brewers-2017-mlb-draft-preview-high-school-pitchers

I think Stearns and Mark are smart enough to keep their eye on the big picture. I don't think they give up any considerable asset unless they get a controllable player back. I seriously doubt we'd part with a major piece for a three month rental. Now, if you get a pitcher controllable through 2020, that's a different animal. We could trade a secondary prospect for a fill-in piece, kind of like when we picked up Ray Durham

One thing I noticed, if you parse what Stearns has said, he doesn't think you draft for need relative to the Big League ballclub. While the casual fan may not realize that, everyone here would agree with that. But adding to organizational depth at some points is important. I'd be a strong proponent of BPA. This year, you may not force a pitcher just to get one. It is wise to get value commensurate with the ninth pick. If a pitcher isn't worthy of 9, then you don't force it.

Brady McConell is another interesting guy in the second round as a SS/3b. That aggregate value looks low to me. Quick twitch, 6'3 kid. I'd have him on my short list in that range. With our penchant for acquiring up-the-middle talent, he may be in the mix. Even if he moves off short, he's got upside that may be attractive to us. Between 9, 34 and 46, I'd love to see a couple of pitchers and an upside teen like McConnell or Vientos as I mentioned before. Count me in on the Tristan Beck bandwagon if his medical isn't considered long term. Look at how Walker Buehler has overcome his injury. It's an opportunity to get a high level talent with reasonable risk profile. The Mike Rivera projection at 114 would be nice as he would be an exciting pickup. Nice catcher at Florida who would be a nice addition to our crop of catchers. I would still like JJ Schwarz further down the line, 4th round or whatever. Say you come out of here with Hall, Beck, and McConell. I'd like a mix of profiles like that. I think you could make the money work. High school southpaw with talent, high upside teen infielder, Stanford starter who could be a number 3 MLB starter if he gets healthy. That would fit my 10,000 feet approach. Would love a combo like that. That would be a heck of an infusion to our system, along with the top 16 year old international outfielder we are linked to. I know there would be many other additions but I like this type of approach.

I've seen somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of both Clark's and Ray's PAs this year, and I can attest to seeing the production. They both look better than most of the other players on the field on most nights. That their batting averages aren't 30 points higher or whatever level is deemed acceptable is transatory. It's not an issue in my head. The talent is there, they hit the ball hard, and they work counts. wRC+ picks that up. The scouting backs it up. Are there development hiccups? Sure. But they are producing on the field, despite what Hall of Famers may think. Fair enough. I hope your assessment is right. I mean that sincerely. The last thing I'd ever do is root for a negative outcome. We all want them to succeed, obviously.

I agree with you that we have some bodies . It's semantics in a sense because we all know the same guys. We've got a guy like Hader who needs command. I like Kirby if he gets healthy. Woody looks legit. Supak is promising. Williams is a good reliever. But really we have a bunch of guys who are just that, just guys. Is anyone really hanging their hat on the likes of Cody Ponce or Kodi? It's not enough.

David Peterson has flipped a switch this year. His walk rate is way, way down to an absurd level. He's 6'6 240 and athletic. He's got a good fastball and slider combo. I am not sure about a third pitch but he looks interesting. I linked a good article on his progress at the bottom. With the comp A and second rounder, there are a number of interesting prospects. If Tristan Beck gets down there, he'd be super interesting as he's been discussed at the start of this thread in the top ten. That could be good value. Mark Vientos is another who looks like he's got upside at third. I couldn't be happier about 18 year old Mario Feliciano at class A ball, but MJ Melendez sounds like another good catching prospect and we know that's always a tough thing to find. There will be some guys who slip down to comp A and second round that will surprise us. It happens every year. I'd love to get some high schoolers with upside the way we did with Gatewood and Harrison, or with Feliciano. I hope there's a pitching version of that. I think we have very good depth in our system other than pitcher but replenishing the next wave behind them with high upside teens would be great so we avoid logjams and keep continuity in our system. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/5/3/15529394/2017-mlb-draft-profile-david-peterson-lhp-oregon

wRC+ provides way more context than plain old OPS or OPS+. I do think this is well said. It provides context. So, it has value. But, you win games with actual production. Players can make adjustments for ball parks or weather or the league he's in or whatever. And then translate it to actual production. WRC etc can have some value. I'm not looking up Ryan Cordell but he's hitting like .320 when he was .270 before (roughly, I didn't look up numbers). We all know he's in altiftude and huge gaps where he can unrealistically rake. I think we can realize he's not really a .320 guy.

Good discussion, I enjoy the back and forth. I'm going to see .250 with an OPS of .720 as mediocre production. I don't think you're going to win trying to justify a guy with advanced stats to make excuses for why his BA or OPS isn't good enough. Gatewood and Diaz are playing in the same games and fans are rightfully excited about them because they have the numbers to back up their actual production. It's not an academic exercise. You produce or you don't and we can see the production. Weighted runs created is a good secondary stat. I also appreciate math and statistical adjustments as I was a science and math guy in undergrad. I would understand the view of eliminating luck, park conditions, or other factors and also by looking at things like BABIP. I think all these stats are interesting and have value. I'm not here to say I don't appreciate these things. But I'm certainly not going to buy that a higher batting average is "meaningless." A guy with high average and OPS is getting the job done and a guy who doesn't have those numbers, isn't. I'd also argue that some of the factors that can cause variance would even out over time. If a couple of seeing eye bloops fall just inside the line in April, they may just fall out in May. Baseball is a game of longevity and the season is long enough to factor these things in and certainly over multi-years. Over 600 plate appearances, the player is who he is. You may want to justify a guy's performance through an advanced stat, but I'm going to stick with my point that over a body of work, you will assess actual production through BA, OBP, OPS, HR, BARSP, RBI. Those are stats that demonstrate production. No matter how many stat adjustments you want to make, you can't hide a .250 average especially if the player lacks pop. That .250 average is telling you something, and you want to dismiss it. I don't buy that at all, and I am sure I could find a bunch of hall of famers to agree with me. Gatewood and Diaz are on the same team and have desired OPS so you can't just blame the league. I agree, and have said from the beginning that there is time for the numbers to come up as it is not even Memorial Day. I believe my very first point on Ray was that he was coming off injury and the second half of the year will tell us more. Heck, he may be hitting .300 in a month. But, where you think that is arbitrary, my view is that's very positive. That's exactly what I'd love to see. The problem with dismissing seven weeks is that your team can be buried by the time you recover. We will know Ray and Clark are getting there when they have a good average, lots of extra base hits, and good OPS. That isn't happening enough, although this is fluid and Ray has been hot even since the thread started. Regarding player development, no one is saying you want all stars at all eight positions. It's a cop out and red herring to mock people who want better production. You do want a group that collectively is top flight. Otherwise, what are we even doing here? You're not winning with the likes of Scooter Gennett types who are classic second division ball players. Left field is not a premium defensive position. You're going to want a thunder bat out there. I'm not looking for a .250 guy with 15 HR and .720 OPS out in left. For Clark to be the guy, he's going to have to be way better than that in left. I don't care what his BABIP or runs created metrics are. Meanwhile .720 OPS from Arcia is satisfactory. He's at a premium defensive spot. Regarding Erceg, I was one of the guys pumping him up. So, I will own that. He's in a funk now. Meanwhile, Travis Shaw is playing really well right now. I've been asking myself, what is Erceg's upside? It might just be what Travis Shaw is. Bird in hand. Now, in three years, Shaw will be pushing 30 and Erceg will be about where Shaw is now, but maybe Shaw is our guy until he proves he isn't. I like his approach. Last year he went into a severe tailspin so let's see if he can avoid that. Also, I haven't given up on Gatewood as a 3b.

We are going to know when a player is doing well. It will be self evident. If you have to strain yourself as an apologist by cherry picking stats, excusing sample sizes, etc, you know it's not going well enough. It's not an academic exercise. What you want is consistent performance, and outperformance relative to your level. People know it when they see it. David Stearns in a recent interview talked about OPS as a stat he likes, and he thinks .800 is pretty good. We've got some pedigreed guys who aren't on that track yet, but we hope they will be at some point. The light has come on for Gatewood. Baseball is a game of adjustments. Hopefully he will maintain his trend as pitchers adjust to him. Unfortunately, in a recent interview Gatewood explained he sought out tutoring from outside the organization in the offseason. What you'd really like is good player development folks within the organization. As of May 23, Ray has an ops of .756 after a hot streak and Clark at .743. Meanwhile, Diaz is at .814 as a middle infielder and Gatewood is at a whopping .961. Those numbers track the excitement level of the fans, who know success when they see if even if not really looking at OPS. It is fairly intuitive and anyone interested enough to be on this website will likely know their stuff. But, reasonable consistency is important. If you have a bunch of guys who struggle for seven weeks, your team could be out of it by Memorial Day. Obviously, streaks and trends are part of baseball. But, these mini streaks should not be so protracted as you can wreck your year. And, really, the typical observer who isn't going to overcomplicate the analysis would just say you're not good enough. Again, as Gatewood has had the lightbulb come on, we hope Clark and Ray develop that as well. I don't think anyone has said they are lost causes.