SoCalBrewfan

FWIW, Haudricourt today said he expects the team to offer arbitration to Lopez, possibly to Kendall as well, less likely for Cameron. Not sure whether he's more plugged in to the team's thinking than the posters here, but it's grist for the mill at any rate. I would only offer Kendall arby if he would promise to sign elsewhere...Cam I'd love to have back for another year and there's a suggestion today that it wouldn't take eight figures. Lopez is a tougher call, but I'd probably offer and be prepared to deal with the situation if it doesn't go as expected. Lopez on a one-year deal is very likely a tradeable commodity if you don't have a place for him.

. This thread is more about who you are as a person and a fan. I see. So some of the posters with whom you disagree are lesser fans? Or lesser, substandard people? I really disagree. The whole point of this board, to my way of thinking, is that we can discuss, and disagree about, a baseball team without insulting each other, without calling one another whiners, fair-weather fans, whatever.

Capellan was recovering from TJ surgery and threw only 64 innings in 2003 (rookie ball and low A), so would not likely have been on anyone's top 100 list in the 2004 offseason. (He was the Brave's #11 prospect on the BA list that offseason.) The 2004 season was his big breakout, and that summer he put on the show at the Futures game...then he was very highly rated. Even in 2004, before his breakout year, he was rated just behind Kelly Johnson in the Braves system, and ahead of Wilson Betemit, Salty, Gregor Blanco, Scott Thorman, Chuck James, Blaine Boyer, Jojo Reyes, Ryan Langerhans. Even the back end of the Braves system had some prospects. Not stars, by any means, but a lot of guys who have played in the majors and had some decent years....that's a better group than a lot of top ten lists. It's just not true to say that being highly rated in the Braves system didn't mean you were considered a good prospect.

I never saw him throw a pitch more than 93 MPH, either our scouting was inept and Melvin got swindled, or they knew exactly what they were getting in which case us fans seriously over valued that particular acquisition. Or he lost velocity. That happens, and it seems to have in this case. Do you doubt the reports that Capellan threw high 90s while in the Braves system? I don't really, and you might remember he put on a show at the Futures game: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20040711&content_id=796342&vkey=allstar2004&fext=.jsp&c_id=null Again, Melvin has acquired a number of decent to excellent pitchers here, and at bargain salaries. Capuano, Bush, Doug Davis (wish we still had him...). A bit of Tomo Ohka. Villaneuva. And a bunch of bullpen arms that filled gaps. Quite a few years the Brewers' rotation was Sheets plus four Melvin acquisitions...and some of those rotations were very solid. And while you might poo-poo those guys, a league-average pitcher at a cheap salary is a hugely valuable thing. Without that, you're paying Suppan rates for Suppan performance.

I think there's a danger if your GM gets obsessed with 'selling high'...you start to spin your wheels in a never-ending talent churn, like the recent A's have, or pretty much every Jim Bowden team. Melvin has done his share of the buy low / sell high stuff...Pods for example, or Overbay, or Danny Kolb. But at some point you have to identify guys as key players and stick with them through some struggles. You might argue that Melvin has been too slow to reassess who was a key player and who was surplus (I tend to agree with that sentiment to a certain extent)...but I don't think Parra is a good example. Young pitchers with some upside are precious commodities in baseball, and Parra had a better pedigree than anyone on our team but Gallardo. This year is a big setback, but a guy like Parra is exactly who many are calling for Melvin to acquire.

Bottom line is that you are claiming that nobody in their right mind thought Capellan would be a starter. And there's evidence suggesting that's not true. Whatever the problems of BA, it and the other stuff I quoted were at least contemporary, without the benefit of hindsight...and while they all acknowledge that Capellan might end up in the pen, they all also suggest he'll be tried as a starter first. You claim two starts (which I'm sure you watched?) were plenty to know he'd never have an off speed pitch and forever exile him to the pen...really? Capellan and delaRosa are two high-upside young pitchers Melvin has acquired, and they illustrate the pitfalls of the strategy. It's easy in retrospect to know which of those guys won't pan out, but not so clear at the time...and, as in the case of delaRosa or Edwin Jackson, it might take a few years and a couple of organizations before a talented young pitcher turns into an average or better major league contributor.

Did Lopez burn bridges in StL? I thought he was never viewed as anything other than a stopgap there, and that he was planning to test free agency no matter what...isn't Boras his agent? Arizona cashed in a vet with an expiring contract in a season going nowhere...I didn't hear any stories suggesting they hated the guy.

Whether or not he should have viewed as a potential starter, he certainly was. He had all of two major league starts with Atlanta, but had gone something like 14-5 at three minor league stops. Everything you read from the times mentions the possibility that he'd end up as a power closer, but that he'd be allowed to fail as a starter first...and Peavey's right that he was a top 25 prospect in the BA top 100, ahead of, among others, JJ Hardy and Ryan Howard. (And Cole Hamels.) Here's a contemporary writeup while he was Atlanta that nicely captures the questions about Capellan: You might also view the BTF transaction oracle, that clearly viewed Capellan as a starter until proven otherwise, though does say he might end up a closer in another year: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/braves_acquired_kolb/

Lopez is a couple of years younger than Orlando Hudson, and just as good. The Dodgers signed Hudson last year as a type A FA. But it should be noted that it was a pretty late signing (Feb 20), and only for one year...it was very surprising how little market there was for Hudson. Lopez has been a similar hitter but he has a lot less defensive value. Of course he's also a bit younger...some of the concern with Hudson was that he might be losing a step. I think Lopez has played well enough to secure a multiyear deal, draft picks notwithstanding, but the guy does have some issues, and there's still some uncertainty as to how the economy will affect payrolls.

That's hindsight, though, or maybe revisionist. At the time the Brewers got him, Capellan was very highly regarded, and had torn through the minors as a starter after tommy john surgery. It's just not correct to say 'it was clear he wasn't going to develop into a starter.' There were some suggestions that his repertoire was better suited to the bullpen, there were differences of opinion on that point...the Braves had him starting, and the Brewers at least publicly said he might be a starter. "The Brewers tried to recover from their pitching setbacks with a bold trade, sending all-star closer Dan Kolb to Atlanta for righthanders Jose Capellan, the Braves' top pitching prospect, and Alec Zumwalt. Capellan will get a shot to make Milwaukee's rotation in spring training." http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/04top10s/brewers.html

Hardy was probably the most valuable position player on the team last year. His value is obviously a lot lower now, but GMs have long memories and often trust scouts more than numbers...a guy who's shown he could hit like an all-star and field the position at the major league level will have some appeal. Somebody will be willing to buy low on Hardy, figuring they can fix what ails him....shortstop is a tough position to fill and some pretty good teams have holes there. Whether we'll get the value we expect is another story... I don't see how Hardy can complain, though. He had ample opportunities...he's one of the biggest nosedives on the team this year, and one of the biggest causes of the disappointing year.

Don't forget that Melvin acquired Capuano, Doug Davis, Bush, Ohka, Capellan, DelaRosa, Villaneuva, in recent years, some in big deals, some for pocket change. Not all those guys worked out, and some were not so young, but it's not like Melvin has never acquired youngish pitchers capable of major league success...those guys collectively are a solid bunch, and have had a lot to do what what successes this team has had during the Melvin era. Add to that conjuring Shouse out of thin air, getting some good service out of the likes of Turnbow, Wise, Santos, more recently Coffey and DeFelice....Melvin has had pretty good success with short to medium term solutions. To say that Melvin has never added quality pitching is just not true. This year everyone knew the depth wasn't there...last-minute acquisitions Chase Wright and Nick Green were maybe decent gambles but neither has turned out to be a solid option to slot in after the inevitable pitching breakdowns. This team needed the rotation to stay intact, and Parra to be the #2 starter. That was a gamble with obvious risks, and it failed. (They also needed something out of Hart and Hardy, which seemed a better bet at least in JJ's case, but that's another story.) But I've seen other teams struggle with the back end of the rotation, including both the local teams out here, rich successful teams with solid systems. (Yeah, the Dodgers haven't had too much to complain about, but as the Rockies got closer, local writers have freaked out about the team and the rotation...still I'd take their problems and their team ERA any day.) Pitching is hard to guess on, and teams prize the good cheap young arms everyone is looking for. And there's some pretty impressive hindsight on display. Who really knew Marquis and delaRosa would save the Rockies rotation this year? Who honestly projected three Cardinal starters would have combined for 500 innings (!) of 160ish ERA+ (!?) at the end of August? Who had Edwin Jackson as a Cy Young candidate? The two criticisms I would offer would be as follows. First, as widely noted, the farm system hasn't helped the cause the way we've needed. Seems like people choose to blame or praise Jack Z or Melvin selectively depending on the point they're trying to make. Still, that's clearly an issue...and it's forced Melvin to make trades to get guys like those I listed above. He did spend a lot of his chips getting Linebrink and Sabathia the last two years, and that's one good deal and one meh one IMO...both illustrate that you have to pay a premium for major league pitching during the season, and that it takes time to reload via the draft. The other beef I've historically had with Melvin is his level of commitment to young players...I think he's typically trading for major leaguers who are ready right now rather than prospects, and perhaps getting less upside as a result. I think that's been particularly true as the team has improved, and the team feels pressure to win instead of develop, and for that reason I think the team hasn't showed patience with certain young players of late. And to me that fits in with the failure to plug in a guy that people would recognize as a solid #2 or 3 starter. The front of the rotation guys you can plug in for several years had have been relatively few and far between. (CC of course gets major props for what he did, but that was a short term fix.) But those guys might be the toughest commodity to acquire in baseball. You need to grow those guys yourself, or pay big for them in trades or free agency, or be smart and lucky enough to get one cheap and do some developing. (You could just get really lucky and pick up an Edwin Jackson before he busts out...but before you anoint Detroit as geniuses at spotting breakout pitchers, ask what they were thinking in giving up Jurrjens?) IMO Melvin did a decent job of picking up the likes of Capuano a few years back but that's his biggest failure of late...surely he's as aware of that as we are, but I wonder whether he'll rethink his recent approach. If you prefer the tl/dr version: pitching is tough, but Melvin's track record isn't as bad as some would suggest above...and hindsight on a message board is a lot easier than actually building a major league rotation.

The offensive environment is pretty different now from when Brock, Wills, Aparicio were playing...a league OBP of .320 or so is notably different from now, where it's more like .335. In general, playing for one run is a better percentage move when the league average is 3.5 runs/game, as it was in 67-68, than when it's 4.5 as is the case right now. A number of the career SB leaders played in low-offense times, perhaps not surprisingly...in contrast, in 1954 ten steals would put you in the top ten in either league...in 1934 it would take twelve in the AL, but ten would do it in the NL. Coleman played in an environment more like today's, one in which team offenses were more diverse. Still, he is a bit of an outlier, and fit well with a specific team philosophy (STL had as many stolen base threats as entire divisions). That's not to say that Farris can't be a useful player. But in today's game, he's going to be less valuable if he can't get on base more. He's limited to 2b it seems, and while there's some reason to believe his defense adds value, he's going to be in direct competition with some very good offensive talents on the Brewers and on other teams for that matter. If he's not starting, he's more limited as a utility guy than someone who plays the left side of the infield. For the system as a whole, it has been an odd year, with some disappointing years and slow starts by top prospects but some emerging (and re-emerging) names to shuffle the prospect lists.

Mel Hall was a decent platoon player in the OF not that long ago. OK, twenty years ago. And yeah, it was mostly a decent batting average that was a bit too empty for a corner OF spot. Kinda makes a guy feel old to remember that. Isn't Mel Hall in jail or something? Yikes, as I google it, he's not a guy you'd like to be mistaken for... I still have trouble getting the first name right for the Gross we had recently...I keep thinking of Wayne or Greg. I guess it's a common affliction amongst the older set...

So it seems to me they will have two free spots on the 40-man roster. Isn't that interesting? That would seem to clear the way for a signing (Byrd or another starter would be a guess) or an addition of a minor leaguer not currently on the 40, or just give flexibility for the team in July.

I didn't think all that hard about the word 'continuing' in reference to the Brewers' commitment, and it might well be inappropriate. But here's my thought process. Milw did very little in latin america for a long time. Then at one point they hired Epy Guerrero in order to change that around. That pretty much bombed. They more recently (say, 2005 or so) changed strategies, hiring Arango, closing the DR team and supposedly signing a smaller number of more expensive prospects who could make the move to AZL right away. While there were no 7-figure signings, they dropped $710k on Pascual, $450K on Peralta, and I don't remember how much on Roque Mercedes. They spent a bit on Arias and Garcia as well more recently IIRC. They talked themselves up, saying they wanted to be a player. For all that, though, it looks as though there has been little return to this point. That's arguable of course. Peralta looks like he could be a good one, but he's still far from being a big league contributor. The other guys still have time, and it's laughably premature to write off a guy like Garcia. But it's not hard to argue that they might well have been better off using that money in other ways, let's say signing Jemile Weeks in 2005 instead. (Assuming that it's one or the other...as a fan I would like to see both but I don't know if that's realistic.) It would be easy for the team to look at the return thus far on their investment, and the amounts some guys are now signing for, and say, to heck with it....let the Yankees and others dump money there. That might in fact be a rational approach...maybe the bang for the buck is greater in the States, Puerto Rico, Canada, where the Brewers seem to have done reasonably well. Still, given that it's not my money, I'm heartened by the fact that they are still in the game in latin america at all, as sometimes those investments, even very small ones pay off big time. (See, for example, Alcides Escobar, or Peralta.)

The local newspaper just had an article on KC bbq: http://travel.latimes.com/articles/la-trw-q28-2009jun28 And there's the Negro Leagues museum...I've never been there but would love to go: http://www.nlbm.com/

Hey, cool news. Thanks for the update...nice to see the Brewers' continuing commitment to latin america. I am hopeful that they won't be drafting in the top 10 for a while, so any avenue for high-ceiling talent is welcome.

Really, there are two different ways of looking at the system...one is top tier talent, guys likely to be above average major league players...the other is depth, guys likely to fill holes and be useful. Really, the first is more important, as there are lots of ways to fill holes, but very few places a team like the Brewers can land an all-star caliber player without growing their own. Starting in 1990 or so, you could look at the baseball america top 100 as a external measure of the top-tier talent. It's obviously not a perfect list, (Jeff Cirillo never cracked the list) but it tells you how guys were viewed at the time by presumably non-biased observers. Most of the top 50 guys in any one year will play in the bigs, though some will blow out early and others will be bench players or relievers. In 1990, the Brewers had a top ten guy, Greg Vaughn...the next couple of years they placed Tyrone Hill and Dave Nilsson fairly highly (Hill made the top ten once, Nilsson the top 30). In the mid 90s, Geoff Jenkins and Antone Williamson made the list more than once...as did Valerio delos Santos...but the highest any of those guys got was 49 for Jenkins. Then a long gap, with Sheets and Neugie the most prominent exceptions. See, it's been pretty rare for the Brewers to have top 50 guys...that's basically it for the first fifteen years of the list. In 2004 the Brewers had four guys in the top half of the list...Weeks, Fielder, Hardy, and Jose Capellan (remember him?)...I think that's more on that one list than in the previous decade combined. Since then they've been very well represented, with Braun, Gallardo, Escobar, Gamel for example. This past offseason they had four on the top 100 (Escobar and Gamel top 50, Lawrie and Jeffress as well). Guys at that level are very hard to come by. While we're off the 2004 peak a bit IMO, BA and others put the Brewers in the top third of systems now, and they have a pretty steady pipeline of talent going. This is really the golden age of Brewers prospects...and the team has had enough depth that behind those top guys we've had a healthy number of Corey Hart or Manny Parra types, even a Mitch Stetter or two...major league contributors to support the core guys, and who might well be considered core guys if things break right. There is one other candidate for the golden era of Brewers farm clubs IMO...in the 1980s, the Brewers drafted and developed the likes of Sheffield, Vaughn, Bill Wegman, Darryl Hamilton, John Jaha, BJ Surhoff, Dan Plesac, Glenn Braggs, Dale Sveum, Bill Spiers, Jamie Navarro, Troy O'Leary. By the end of the 80s that trailed off, though there was a flurry of success in the mid 90s with Loretta, Cirillo, Matheny, Jeff D'Amico and Ron Belliard. Only the latter two ever cracked the BA top 100.

Eric Fryer was a Brewer draftee, traded to NYY for Chase Wright.

I'm off to try Nite Owl If you see Dudley Smith come in, I'd say hit the floor.

For whatever it's worth, Perez and Todd (the rumor I heard somewhere) were the #3 and 4 prospects in the Cardinals system this offseason according to Baseball America. While Perez has had some issues, he's obviously still very young...the Tribe is in a position to let him work out the kinks at the major league level this year. The Cardinals don't have the same luxury of course.... Nothing I've read since that first night suggests that Wallace could be the PTBNL, incidentally, though Todd would be a nice consolation prize and also a significant addition. He's probably better than most of the Cleveland pen right now. The other two guys mentioned above are clearly less valuable IMO. Samuel is in AA but struggling a bit, another power arm, but with over 8 walks per nine in the minors...a project who could be a power closer or a total bust. Jon Jay is an OF who might be a fourth OF type...off the cuff the most comparable Brewers farmhand at this instant might be Cole Gillespie if he batted lefty and hit for a bit more average...though Jay is scuffling in the PCL this year after a big year in 08. Thurston, Barden, K. Green, Freese, and T. Greene with their respective WARs of 0.5, 0.3, -0.4, -0.1, and 0.1 make the upgrade to DeRosa slightly better still. Well, that's pretty much what a set of five guys near replacement level looks like I guess. Normally I'd say that a WAR of 1.1 isn't too great because most teams have someone at least a little bit better than replacement level on hand, so the upgrade would be minimal. For the Cardinals that's not so clear...this is one place they can get some real bang for their buck, even if DeRosa isn't the defender that he once was.

Seems to me I've read that Glaus won't be throwing well enough to play 3b for quite a while. It was even suggested that he might be traded to the AL to be a 1b/dh since presumably he will hit well enough to help a team...StL of course doesn't have much need at either position. If the PTBNL is indeed Wallace, the Tribe pulled off a nice little deal...it was only six months ago that they got DeRosa for Archer, Gaub and Stevens. I wondered if it were him, but rejected the idea. But I hadn't thought of the draft choice(s)...

I'm sure there's a place where one could discuss what lcbj68c did or didn't say, but let's try to save this thread for the DeRosa deal, ok? mlbtraderumors quotes Shapiro as saying the PTBNL is 'significant'...whatever that means. If it's a good prospect or a top 2008 draftee, that's a very good haul for Cle given that DeRosa is a rental. The one guy we know about is not bad...Perez is young, hard thrower with lots of Ks, could be a closer at some point and the Cleveland pen needs help now and in the future. All that said StL gets a nice player and is all the more threatening. Odd how Miles and DeRosa end up swapping places after all...bet Cubs fans are screaming for Hendry's head?

Yeah, it's discouraging to see the 13th pitcher facing the top of the order in the seventh, just after scoring three times to make it a one-run game. We are admittedly depleted in the pen right now but that seems like playing with fire.