SoCalBrewfan

The Brewers have gone a few years without developing quality starting pitchers. Before Sheets, you have to go back to D'Amico, Karl, Woodard, none of whom had particularly long or distinguished careers. The last really successful pitchers were in the Navarro / Wegman / Bosio / Eldred era...and in the context of franchise history that's a notable fraction of the homegrown pitchers who were successful. So allow me to be a half-full guy here for a moment...Gallardo, Parra, and Villanueva look like a pretty solid haul for a two or three year stretch. Given that those three look likely to be effective and cheap for the next couple of years, that leaves some room to sign a free agent starter to fill things out. While there isn't anyone in AA or AAA that looks like a front-end starter, there are some good arms in the lower levels...it's premature to pencil any of those guys into roles yet, but the team has acquired some good arms in the draft, particularly via the DFE process. Presumably we'll see some pitching in the June draft this year, and if Sheets does indeed leave that will give us additional picks to play with. And the solid everyday lineup means the team could indeed deal position players for arms...whether that be a young major leaguer or prospects.

I am baffled by some of the reactions here...and on BBTF for that matter, where the assumption seems to be that Weaver will be taking a major role on the big league team as soon as the drugs are out of his system. If it should come to pass that Weaver is pitching for the big league Brewers, either he will have turned things around, or converted to an effective reliever...or our season will already be in the toilet because we've lost three or four key pitchers. Or maybe all of those. While it's a time-honored tradition to wring one's virtual hands over minor league signings (has Branyan ruined our season yet?), it's also much ado about nothing much.

One must also recognize that one of the purposes of a farm system is to provide trade chits for the big league team. When the big league bullpen was struggling, they used minor leaguers to attempt to plug the hole...that's what contending teams do. Sarfate, for example, was given chances in the majors and in AAA to establish himself as a reliable reliever. If Sarfate had taken the opportunity offered him, he could have been pitching in Milwaukee down the stretch last year...since he hadn't done so, the team felt it needed to get Linebrink and King. You could argue the same for Eveland, perhaps...he and a number of young and even not-so-young pitchers (eg Jackson, Hendrickson, Demaria) were given shots in 2006, and Villaneuva is the only one that performed well enough to establish himself as part of the club's future. Eveland stunk in the majors then, and while the team liked his arm they also apparently felt they had better options. Sarfate and Capellan were neither good nor terrible in 2006, but both played themselves out of the team's plans in other ways. Now I will confess that I wasn't a big fan of either the Davis / Estrada deal, in which we lost Eveland, nor of the Linebrink deal, in which we lost Thatcher. And you might claim that it's unfair to base anything on the first month of a young pitcher's career. But Sarfate has always struggled with control, and the team had clearly decided to move on. (He could have been a free agent anyway, right?) Ultimately you have to recognize that not every prospect is going to play a role in Milwaukee. Now that the team has higher ambitions, some of them are going to be traded for a pinch hitter or a situational lefty...and that's just the price we pay for success.

If we didn't know about Prince's diet, I suspect that the thread would be about whether the contract renewal had ticked off Prince and thrown off his mental approach to the game. And who knows...that may be a factor. His diet may be a factor. Having Gabe Kapler on the team might be a factor...or maybe Guillermo Mota wears some kind of after shave that Prince doesn't like. Maybe Prince is worried about the economy...maybe his shares of Bear Stearns went in the tank. Maybe he's a Ron Paul devotee, despondent that America didn't embrace his guy. It could be that the increased expectations this year, and the key role Prince plays in the offense, have him overly wound up...the guy is pretty intense. Or it could just be that Prince is on a cold streak...seems to me that he's been a fairly streaky player in the past, and that power hitters go through this up and down all the time. For all that is riding on Prince, I'm gonna assume the team has people who know nutrition and kinesiology who could diagnose a dietary deficiency that leads to decreased bat speed.

I think the short term landscape in the division is Brewers vs. Cubs and the medium term is Brewers vs. Reds...at least that was my thought before the season started. The early returns suggest that Cueto might be a force sooner than expected...he was sure impressive. It may be that the Reds are part of the picture this year, but I still think they'll take some time to develop, and they might yet require a consolidation year like the Brewers had last year. They will also very possibly lose Dunn and Griffey before the young core is fully in place. Still, that's why they play the games...these questions will be answered in time.

I believe there is room for one guy on the 40-man, two if Cameron doesn't count. So, it does kinda surprise me that Nix wasn't brought up since he is a plus defender in CF and a LH bat. Does this mean they've given up on him? If they move him off the 25 man roster in a week or two, they would need to expose him to waivers again. They seem reluctant to do that. So in a way, this move means they haven't given up on Nix, or at least that they don't want to risk losing him. He's about fifth on the depth chart in CF, though, so he's presumably not viewed as a key cog now or in the future...rather he seems to be an insurance policy for the insurancy policy for the insurance policy.

Bush was certainly the one I had in mind...does seem like something is busted in his arm. With all the talk about the pressure on him to step up and hold his rotation spot, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he was concealing an injury. Tht's pure speculation on my part of course...

Didn't see this one coming...congrats to Hernan. I'd guess that one of our pitchers will go to the DL when Gallardo is activated, with a pulled effectiveness muscle.

I would assume that the 6 years begins in '09...as is the case with Young's deal, so that it would indeed include a buyout of what would normally be the first FA year, and perhaps have an option for the second.

Well, I believe that Tulo's deal is 6/$31M guaranteed, with a team option that could bring it to 7/$44M. So the rumor isn't far out of line with that.

Miguel Cabrera is the player that Fielder's dollar figures should be patterned after if he takes arbitration season-by-season. I don't think Cabrera and Howard are that different as far as the process works...it tends to be based on past performance and comparable players in terms of recent performance, rather than on projections of future value. That's not to say that your point is invalid...going forward we can expect Howard to peak and decline long before Fielder does. It's just that the arby process itself doesn't seem to take that into account. A smart FA market would presumably consider the age of players, so Fielder could expect a premium over Howard's salaries in that respect...however the process (for better or worse) also rewards awards (say that three times fast), so Howard's ROY and MVP earned him some money that Fielder wouldn't necessarily get. This is where Boras makes his clients money...in a negotiation he'll insist that Fielder is not only comparable to Howard but better, despite the hardware, and extract a few more million dollars. He also knows that the market has escalated (10% or so) from year to year, so with a guy like Fielder you can probably maximize earnings by going year to year. I certainly agree Cabrera's deal is probably what either guy (Howard or Fielder) would be using as a comp for a potential long-term deal. Here's what cot's says: 08:$11.3M, 09:$15M, 10:$20M, 11:$20M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$22M, 15:$22M He would be a FA after 09, so the six free agent years average $21M each, and the last two arby years ramp up to that. Eighteen to twenty million is sort of a benchmark number for a guy like this, but four years from now I don't think $20M will seem like a lot of money any more...assuming salaries continue to inflate as they did in the last few years. So with Prince, presumably you'd try to lock him up for 09, 10, 11 (three arby years), then at least one FA year (12), and then have an option for the final year. So, maybe $9M, $12.5M, $16M for the arby years, $21M for 2012, $22M for 2013? That's $80+M for five years...how does that look? Prince would still be hitting the market in his prime, with a hefty amount of money in the bank and the opportunity to hit the jackpot in free agency. Then again, Boras would probably want a premium, for forgoing the opportunity for free agency, so that might not even get it done...how about 5/$90M? I just don't know.

But the price may need to be upped since the Blue Jays signed Alexis Rios to just a shade over $10 million and the new contract of DBacks Chris Young. Keep in mind, Braun's stats his rookie year were much better than Young's, so I would be led to believe Braun will get substantially more than Young. A Braun contract isn't going to jump to $7M in the first year. He's got 0 years / 129 days service time, so he's in all likelihood a year behind Young or Tulo according to the rules. He could be a super two but both sides have a good read on that at this point, and it will be accounted for in the deal. Young's only making $408K this year, which he began with 1 year/45 days service time. The contract looks like this, according to Cot's: 09:$1.75M, 10:$3.25M, 11:$5M, 12:$7M, 13:$8.5M, 14:$11M club option ($1.5M buyout) Tulo, with 1 year / 33 days service time: 08:$0.75M, 09:$0.75M, 10:$3.5M, 11:$5.5M, 12:$8.5M, 13:$10M, 14:$15M club option ($2M buyout) So no way you're looking at $7M next year for Braun. The Tulo deal gives a good guide for what to expect...it's a discount compared to what you'd get going year-to-year, assuming a certain progression in player performance but of course involves risk on the club's part in case of injury or a career not as impressive as the early returns might indicate. Prince has a lot more service time, 2 years / 68 days, and will be arby-eligible next year, so his deal would be a very different beast....it's really more like a free-agent deal in some ways, because he could go year-to-year in arby and make pretty good money without the extension. Howard of course is the guy we think of, given his big arby award, but he's got 2 years / 145 days service time. (You can see by comparing Braun's 129 days and Howard's 145 where the sweet spot is for super-two...Howard just made it IIRC and Braun is likely to be just short.) His contract does establish what Fielder will use as a benchmark, and means you're not going to save a lot on Fielder...he knows (or at least Boras does) that he could get $10M in arby next year, as Howard did, with increases in subsequent years until the final arby year is basically what a free agent would make. While these deals might look scary at the outset, in retrospect they often tend to end up being modest...look at David Ortiz making $12.5M or even Pujols making $16M.

Then who goes where Dunno...Gwynn or Gross is exiled to feed the Kapler mancrush? Ewing is Buck Ewing, HOFer from the 1800s. http://www.baseball-reference.com/e/ewingbu01.shtml

I get this feeling that Kapler is going to be hitting .320 when Cameron comes back and between the hot start and the scrappy manliness he exudes, we'll have him all year.

If you don't put Mcclung in now when do you plan on pitching him? Turnbow? I can only assume at least one of them will pitch, but the most Yost thing would be Mota and Gagne for the 8th and 9th. Both pitched yesterday, McClung for an inning plus, so I don't know he in particular is even available.

Behind 4-2, the Cubs did some interesting gymnastics for the top of the 9th, moving Derosa to 3b, Soriano to 2b while bringing a pitcher into Ramirez' spot in the lineup. Fukodome, Soto, and Pie in the ninth for the Cubs..Fukodome just popped out.

So, I'm not sure of the official definition, but it's not looking like a save situation any more. I'd be tempted to use Gagne for an inning anyway I think...but will Yost?

How often does a pinch hitter get to bat twice?

As fearsome as the Giants' starting nine is, that bench is, um, loaded.

Villy 'bout done here?

Just stay out of the DP, Billy. Done.

There is no way Ryan Braun faces Sanchez this inning. Yeah, sadly I agree...pretty please?

Doesn't seem likely now but I was hoping Braun would face a tired Sanchez this inning with runners on.

It's also set up for Ned to do his favorite move the Ol' Double Switcherooni in the sixth with either Kapler or Braun (depending on how the inning goes) if Villy falters.

I would assume McClung would not pitch today, and that Turnbow would be less likely than others, though he could go if really needed. Shouse hasn't pitched yet, and the lefty / SH / SH top of the SF order is a natural place for him. Torres and Riske must also be available though I'd imagine Mota and Gagne would be more likely. So far an efficient inning by CV...