SoCalBrewfan

And here everyone thought the Twins were crazy for passing on Mark Prior http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif . Not just crazy, but cheap. As it turns out, for $5M less, they might have gotten the better long-term option. (That seems very likely right now but things can change.) A fascinating draft in retrospect, regarded at the time as having five premier talents who did go 1-5 overall. Of those Mauer is the big prize, Prior has had his moments, but Teixera at 5 overall is also looking like a good pick, and Gavid Floyd at #4 is at least a major leaguer (for all that I don't know what to make of him). And there are the D-Rays as the big loser with Brazelton at #3. As I recall, BA rated the Tigers' draft as the best overall that year, but they have little to show after such expectations of Baugh, Woods, Larrison, Hannahan, and Raburn.

Ford might be the fastest guy in the minors, so he's certainly the fastest in the Brewers org. But he does have some work to do with the bat...his improvement was significant though, and he was in the mix for the 'most improved' category in the Farm Hops piece. Ford is almost exactly three years younger than Gwynn, so Gwynn's '03 numbers in Beloit are at least somewhat valid as a comparison. Their OBPs were basically the same but Ford had more power and speed. Ford also has a ton of Ks, which might bode poorly for his future development, but then he's a fairly raw prospect who could well take another step forward. I'd take Ford '06 over Gwynn '03, but then I never thought much of Gwynn '03. Gwynn in '06 is a better prospect than Gwynn '03, though, with almost-decent offense one step below the majors...he'll certainly get some major league time as a reserve at the very worst...Ford on the other hand could still wash out and has to prove himself as he moves up the ladder. To me, Ford has more upside than Gwynn right now but also has a much greater chance of having zero value...in three years he could look like Krynzel or he could be on the brink of being a major league starter like Pierre, Roberts, Pods, Taveras, even Corey Patterson if you're lucky (?!). To me the upside of either guy is somewhat limited though since those 700 OPS speed guys just aren't all that great unless their defense is truly superior. If Ford can be a 750 OPS guy (say .360/.390) with lots of SB and great defense though, he'll have a career...guys like this who can get their OPS into the high 700s will make a lot of money. I don't see much chance that either guy turns into the upper-tier version of this player, the 800 - 850 OPS guys like Damon / Crawford / Cameron / Lofton (different mixes of OBP and SLG in there), but of course the younger you are the greater the uncertainty in any projections.

In another chat question, Mat Gamel described as the last guy cut. Sounds like four Power in the top 30, if they went that deep. Inman at 7 is hardly a dissing...again this is a tough league with some of the best prospects in the minors. Basically there were four position players 1-4 who are real studs, and then Inman among a group of five pitchers with greatly varying degrees of results vs. tools. He could well have been 5th or 9th or maybe even ahead of Andrus, but he's clearly among a premium group of teenage pitchers in a top-flight prospect league.

It's very hard to get guys on this list, with 16 teams, including rich teams like the Mets, Yankees, Phillies, and Red Sox, and the Braves and Marlins who have very strong systems....the SAL is a talent hotbed. In particular, you see a lot of highly-touted Latin signings, and top-notch HS draftees in their first full season; Greensboro (Fla) had 4 first round picks on its pitching staff, Greenville (Bos) has two first rounders on the list as well. Considering the Brewers didn't have a single first or second rounder there, they did pretty well with two of the top fourteen prospects and a couple of guys who have a good case for being in the next 20.

He did say that Errecart was in the 21-25 range...that's pretty good praise. Gillespie and Errecart are very polished bats and could move quickly, though of course there's a logjam in the outfield ahead of them. Errecart could be the best 1b prospect in the system, though that's almost by default. Chapman gets flack from some for spending three years in rookie ball, but he's still young (was drafted at 17 IIRC), still younger than the college guys who were assigned to Helena. He only loses a step compared to the very precocious Cain, Brantley, Ford, and Fermaint...the chat indicated that if the Brewers couldn't use him, he'd likely be attractive to other teams.

Sure, I see your point, and wasn't disagreeing with your assessment of either guy's prospects in free agency. But if there are no picks involved, as is very possibly the case, then there's no reason to offer arbitration. Is there any possible way that Kolb is even a C free agent? Bell I don't know...he's got the playing time that might qualify him, but little in the way of success the last two years.

I would definitely offer arby to Ohka and Graffy...and they should be at least B or C free agents. Kolb is too much of a risk for me, and I doubt he is in the top 50% of free agents, so he may well not even qualify for comp picks. I'd give him an NRI and minimum-wage deal, maybe, but I can't see paying him 80% of his current salary. Bell...geez Louise. I don't have much use for him, and if he accepted arby he'd be guaranteed at least 80% of his current contract of $4.5M...$3.6M. I don't even know if he'd warrant a draft choice at this point. Aside from that, thanks as always colby for the story!

Age is of course very important in these discussions...many of the past Helena phenoms have been old for the league, college seniors or older juniors like Sollman, Brady, Festa. A college hitter who is a top prospect will generally (but not always) be assigned to high A ball in his first full season, and finish the year in AA. So Jenkins started his first full season in A+, with a promotion to AA midseason. Weeks started in AA. Braun started this year in A+. Lyle Overbay started in low A, but was promoted to AA, and he was a much-lower-profile guy. Gwynn started in AA, though he probably should have been in A+. Usually, but not always, the college guys that go to low A (and particularly those that spend the whole year there) are the middle-round players, who have to prove themselves every step of the way...recent Brewers in that category would be Heether or Anderson. Or guys with skills that needs development, like a good shortstop who can't hit or a slugging catcher who needs innings behind the plate. Cirillo was actually in that category many years ago, and spent virtually his first full season in Beloit...he was not viewed as a top prospect but proved himself with the bat and glove all the way up the ladder. Gillespie was only a 3rd rounder, but has a big college pedigree...some comparable players would be: Eddy Martinez-Esteve, late 2nd rounder in 2004 out of Florida State, started in A+; Jeremy Reed, late 2nd in 02, started in A+ and ended in AA; Larry Broadway, high 3rd in 02, started in A and ended in AA; Curtis Granderson, high 3rd in 02, started in A+; Jason Cooper, high 3rd in 02, A then A+. Or Andre Ethier, late 2nd in 03, A+ in 04. Thus I'd be surprised to see Gillespie in low A next year, though the minor league OF is crammed throughout the system. If the Brewers thought Gwynn was ready to hit in Huntsville, I'd say Gillespie is at least as prepared for A+ if not AA. I think the reasons Gillespie didn't move up earlier are twofold: he signed a bit late after a long college season including his exploits in the CWS, and the OF at WV was raking.

One of the articles alluded to the fact that a lot of these kids take stuff from their agents, whom they trust...while the players are likely not aware of the rules and the potential consequences, the agents are a different story. I would not be surprised in the least to hear that unscrupulous agents know exactly what they're doing but don't care...if they get a kid signed they make money, and what happens down the road is much less a factor. Here's the quote, for the mlb page:

Will Inman has allowed one run on the road this season. One. With a road performance like that, he'll fit right in in Milwaukee.

Too much attention? From who? Mass and I are the only two talking about the guy. Maybe it's cuz I hassled Toby about putting Chapman at #54 on the Power 50 in the most recent P50 thread. Pogo's so discreet...he didn't want to say "I don't want to incite that hothead SoCal again."

Davis showed again tonight why he shouldn't be considered for a long term contract. I've been waiting and waiting for the good Davis to show up again, but I'm starting to agree with this point of view. I'm sad to say it, and still hold out some hope for the guy...but right now it's hard to see him playing a prominent role in a future Brewer playoff team. Of all the poor performances this year, Davis' might be the one that hurts the most...he really didn't step up when the team needed it.

How's that for an ending in H'ville: HR: Katin (3, 14th inning off Serrano, 0 on, 2 out). Serrano is a catcher, of course, and probably wanted to go home...

Well, if the Brewers needed a 1b due to an extended absence by Prince (knocking on an antique oak table as I type that), Corey Hart could do it. Koskie could do it. Mench could presumably do it. In the minors, they've got a few guys like Gamel who could slide that way as they move up. The Brewers don't draft a 1b unless he's a franchise hitter, IMO. The 3B situation illustrates how quickly things change in a system...between Hall, Koskie/Cirillo, and Braun, they have present, past, and future 3b studs. The Brewers have needed a catcher for a while, and there have been some nice ones drafted the last few years, whom I thought they might target (Salty, McCann, etc), but they have always gone in other directions. That to me is the best evidence of all that they go with BPA. Braun I guess is the exception...I am sure they looked at that draft class with college kids Gordon, Zimmerman, Braun, and said, you know, we're never going to have a chance like this again to solve 3b. Edit: I guess colby posted as I was typing. He's right of course, as usual.

You can go here: snap.stats.com/premium/sf...825128.asp Gotta refresh frequently though.

Gameday is savoring the moment I guess...really enjoying that Nix rbi.

The ongoing saga of How Derrick Got His Groove Back. Or not, perhaps.

He's in his third year of rookie ball, repeating in Helena. True, but he's a HS draftee, so still nearly the youngest position player on the roster, so I don't think that's a valid complaint. (Green is younger, and one delaCruz is almost exactly the same age.) In particular, had West Virginia not had the spectacular outfield options they do, Chapman might well have stayed there or been promoted midseason. (Certainly his small sample earlier wasn't impressive, though.) Caufield has two years and change on him, and Chapman still has an edge to the tune of 100 OPS points, so I don't see them as a close comparison. I think of Chapman as a CF prospect, though I honestly don't know a lot about his defense...as a corner guy it's harder for him to stick to be sure. I don't really carry a torch for the guy...he just jumped out at me from the list of 51-60. (And I've often said that being 30 vs. 50 is just a matter of personal aesthetics.)

It would take a lot of convincing to get me to agree that Chapman is the 54th best prospect in the system. I'm not arguing he's top ten or anything...but 54?

Well, it should be noted that Jeffress and Rogers are high-ceiling pitchers and Escobar is a very young and very promising shortstop...a list like BAs will have those guys way ahead of a guy like Jackson. (Who is too high on pogo's list, IMO.) The Brewers system is intriguing in part because you can come up with a top ten list without those three guys, any of whom has tools enough that he could well turn out to be a major league all-star. There are a lot of types of players in the system, tools players if that's your thing, performance guys if you prefer numbers...the three guys at the top are hard to beat but there's also depth in a lot of different directions, so that it's not hard to imagine three new guys emerging at the top of the list next year in the way that Yo, Braun, and Inman have...

So much for nostalgia.

Intellectually, I agree that it's the right thing to do. The little knot in my tummy doesn't buy the intellectual side though.

Apparently we now have a bullpen...Capellan with a fly ball and 5 Ks, and nothing else, in 2 IP.

I wish him the best and maybe he can help Arizona win some games. Sounds like he won't pitch this season, but will start in instructionals this fall...which as colby says likely means he signed a 2007 contract. (That's a good thing from the Brewers POV as it means an additional year before he needs Rule 5 protection, etc.)

Great news. Anyone know if Seidel signed an 06 or 07 contract? At this point I wouldn't be surprised to hear it was the latter, and expect him to pitch in the instructional league...