SoCalBrewfan

The JSOnline suggests that part of the rationale for Cirillo at short is punishment for Hall's leaving his bat at the plate. What Capuano did to deserve this punishment is not immediately apparent.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a college arm for their second round pick, either a starter that's dropped out of the first round for whatever reason or one of the college closers. Most people say pitching is the strength of the draft anyway, but with the premium many teams seem to pay for college arms none of us should be surprised if the Brewers go another direction, particularly with the 1st round pick. While I'm sure Ned Yost would love to have three college pitchers to feed into the meat grinder come September, Jack Z seems to follow his draft board regardless of what the pressures from inside and outside the org might dictate. Thank heavens....

The same thing struck me...I'd be very happy to get Hughes in the second round. Bard has been linked to the Brewers before IIRC, but my sense is that he hasn't lived up to the hype.

In some ways, this draft is more interesting than the ones in which we've had a high choice, since it's so hard to see where the Brewers go...watching the first round will be fascinating. Something tells me they'll have a shot at a talented but expensive guy like Hochevar, and I'm curious to see how they respond...my gut feeling is that they pass. Conger or Snider are the two names I've seen that intrigue me most...though Ned Yost is probably begging for a college arm he can plug in by mid-August.

He's generally credited with the Brewers' recent turnaround, taking J.J. Hardy, Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks with high picks from 2001-2003. Last year's top pick, third baseman Ryan Braun, represents the first time Zduriencik has taken a college player with his first selection. I realize that fact-checking is hard, but there's a pretty glaring contradiction there....

I can't figure out if the Phillies are going to be tough all year, or if this will be a typical choke job from them. They have some clear strengths and glaring weaknesses, one of which seems to be in the dugout. Still, these wins could look pretty good down the road.

Though it should be said that getting Burrell out of a tight game looks pretty foolish right now...the guy in the other dugout should get a few free beers from Nedly after this season.

One of these days, Yost will out-think himself and bring in Shouse to face a lefty when the reliever in the game has looked just fine. One of these days...

The latest BA mock has the Brewers taking a different HS of/1b guy: Travis Snider from the great state of Washington.

It's interesting that LBSU shuffled their rotation vs. UCR, with Carpenter on Friday and Hughes planned for Sunday. I wonder what they'll do vs. CSUF...though it doesn't look like they'll be playing for the conference title, LBSU always plays Fullerton hard and they may well have a NCAA riding on the series. ThatPhenom'sMom, do you have a personal connection to CSUF?

Weeks defense has been absolutely pathetic but what's with all the fans that want him to rack up the errors? It may simply be that they want the statistical record to reflect reality more closely, regardless of its impact on anyone's confidence or ERA.

86 pitches in 5 days... I just don't understand this.... That's about the same load as a starter after today is through...it's obvious that Yost is stretching out Turnbow so he can move into the rotation. OK, snark aside, I would hate to see us burn out a key pitcher in mid-May, particularly when there's another key pitcher in Wise who is lacking work.

I'm thinking Melvin is like a dad who finally gave in and got his little guy that new toy...Ned's been leaving him endless voice mails saying, "Please can I please have a LOOGY, Doug? Pretty pretty please?" Now Ned feels like a real manager...he can use a lefty specialist just like Tony LaRussa! Or get outmaneuvered just like Bobby Cox!

Cal State Fullerton @ Long Beach State This game will be televised on CSTV on Friday, May 26th. Tune in to watch a great pitching match between a potential first-round draft pick for this year (LBSU's Jared Hughes) and a potential first-round pick for next year's draft (Wes Roemer). I keep thinking I should go see this one...Fullerton/Dirtbag series are always worth watching, and there are always future major leaguers on the field.

Katin, Fermaint, and Braun apparently missed the memo stating that they are playing in an extreme pitchers' environment. Glad to see Link Reports again. (Just don't look at the time stamp here...got a deadline to meet...don't ask whether reading the link report helps me meet it. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif )

One thing we have to keep in mind is that we won't be picking in the top 5 again for a while. (Or so I hope.) I think that when you get to the middle of the first round through the supplemental picks, the choices are much less clear cut. Sure, sometimes a Kazmir or Drew or Weaver type will slip, but more often you have a situation where there are a number of players with different sets of strengths and weaknesses, risks and rewards. To me, that's where different draft philosophies really play out...the Dodgers and Braves stock up on talented high-ceiling prepsters who have fallen, the Moneyball types sign college hitters and pitchers, etc. Some of the Braves' top prospects (Francoeur, Salty etc) have come from that part of the draft, for example. I'd love to see what Jack Z could do with some supplemental picks... Regarding Davis, Cot's baseball contracts had him with 3 yrs 138 days service time before 2005...so I think that indicates he's got one more arbitration year in 2007.

I believe Lester Maddox died a few years back...maybe that's the reference? This is a classic no-risk, maybe-high-reward pickup...though there's clearly been some injury issues in his past, a guy who can throw hard with his left hand will always get chances.

Somewhere in your 'profile' there is a check box that allows you to display the ezsupporter icon. I only know this because I went through the same process you did...except that someone fussed at me (in jest) for not being a supporter, though I had paid the $12 several months earlier.

SoCal, if that's the case, then we should just let Helling, Eveland, or Hendrickson man the 5th spot and not pursue a free agent. Yeah, the projections suggest that the 5th spot would be ok in the hands of those guys. At the same time, they're bearish on Capuano and Ohka. I don't know what to make of it...they were pretty spot on in some cases last year, but seem more pessimistic this offseason. Historically I think the bullpen projections as well as those for minor leaguers have been sketchy...which makes sense in the former case given how few innings relievers throw. The author of the ZiPS projections actually adjusts for Leo Mazzone, in that he's historically found his projections underestimated Braves pitchers. Maybe we need a Maddux factor as well. (They also consider DIPS and the team defense, for those who care.)

Thanks...what's the secret? I pasted from excel but it didn't keep the column widths fixed...is word better? I used the ERA numbers and then added unearned runs based on the Brewers' ratio from the last year or two. For runs scored, I used OXS*AB, and also a slightly fancier version of Runs Created, including SB, CS, HBP etc., and averaged the two (they differed by about 30 runs). (Getting the runs right was hard because of all the pitchers' numbers etc...I tweaked the numbers a bunch of times to keep the number of outs about the same in 2005 as they had been in 2004.) For last year I got 736 RS, 771 RA, and a 77 win season. The actual runs was close at 726, but I was way off on the pitching. (I actually didn't believe some of the ZiPS numbers, e.g. Hendrickson and Capuano, so bumped their runs allowed assumed a good number of innings by replacement level pitchers...also I didn't guess Turnbow's performance or the addition of Ohka of course.)

Argh, obviously I need help making pretty tables.

And some batters... Batter&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp ActBA&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp ActOBP&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp ActSLG&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp ProjBA&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp ProjOBP&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp ProjSLG Damian Miller&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.273&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.34&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.413&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.249&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.321&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.387 *Lyle Overbay&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.276&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.367&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.449&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.299&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.379&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.465 Rickie Weeks&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.239&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.333&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.394&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.244&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.317&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.375 *Russ Branyan&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.257&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.378&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.49&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.251&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.342&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.494 J.J. Hardy&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.247&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.327&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.384&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.252&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.347&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.397 Carlos Lee&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.265&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.324&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.487&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.29&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.355&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.487 Brady Clark&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.306&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.372&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.426&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.271&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.359&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.389 *Geoff Jenkins&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.292&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.375&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.513&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.273&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.341&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.484 *Prince Fielder&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.288&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.306&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.458&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.268&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.344&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.446 Bill Hall&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.291&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.342&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.495&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.251&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.296&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.367 Chad Moeller&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.206&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.257&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.367&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.236&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.303&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.355 Junior Spivey&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.236&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.308&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.374&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.272&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.359&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.433 Wes Helms&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.298&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.356&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.458&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.262&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.333&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.417 #Chris Magruder&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.203&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.265&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.312&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.255&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.313&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 0.383

Yep. And lest you think the system is unable to predict, here are a few ERA projections from last year: Pitcher projected actual Sheets 3.19 3.33 Davis 4.10 3.84 Santos 4.47 4.57 Hendrickson 3.95 n/a Capuano 4.08 3.99 Adams 4.15 2.7 Lehr 4.50 3.89 Bennett 5.04 n/a Wise 3.84 3.36 Obermeuller 5.29 5.26 delaRosa 4.46 4.46 Glover 5.40 5.57

I meant to post these but didn't get to it. Thanks, rluz. I use these every year to project w-l records, mostly because they're free and reasonably accurate...last years' numbers led to a predicted 77 wins IIRC, so they're close even though no projection system will ever be perfect. As for JBriggs' point, they sort the projections by teams, and typically include players with their previous teams until they end up somewhere else...thus Helms for example is listed here, though there's likely zero chance he's a Brewer in 2006. They actually stay on top of things, and reported the Brewers' signings of Abernathy et al. recently...lots of posters at Primer have commented very favorably about the Brewers as a sleeper wild card contender, and a team on the rise. Jenkins in LF is obviously a goof but hardly one I'd lose sleep over. As noted, the system does not attempt to predict playing time, as should be clear from the fact that Overbay and Fielder combine for almost 200 games played.

There's another issue with McGwire in my mind...peak value vs. career value. His peak is amazing...four seasons where he led the league in OPS+, another where he was 2nd, another where he would have been in the top 5 had he not been traded. But beyond that, he was 6th one year, and that's it. He was a major factor in the MVP balloting five times (finished 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th), and got a few votes five more times...I think he should have won in 1998 but he didn't. He's 79th in career runs created, despite playing first base in the most offensive era since Babe Ruth. That reflects many games lost to injury over the years. (Manny Ramirez already has more career Runs Created.) Aside from HR (7th alltime) and walks (33rd all time), McGwire's best showing in career counting totals is 78th in RBI. (He is also 10th all-time in SLG, 79th in OBP). HR and walks are two pretty important categories, but his career counting stats are otherwise not at all HOF-worthy. We may never know, but to me the question of how his games played might have been affected by PEDs is an interesting one...this is a guy who missed a tone of games between ages 29-32, and then played 150+ games a year ages 33-35, a time when he also chased home run records. Without that late-career renaissance, no one would talk about him as a Hall of Famer. Everyone talks about steroids and power, but steroids are also supposed to affect the way you heal...perhaps allowing an older player to avoid minor and/or major injuries that might otherwise keep him out of the lineup. Who knows, of course...my gut feeling is that he had chemical help in staying in the linup and hitting home runs, but that's just speculation and wouldn't hold up in a court of law.