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KeithStone53151

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Everything posted by KeithStone53151

  1. KeithStone53151
    I wouldn't put too much stock in the specific teams we beat or lose to. Bottom line is we won 5 or 7. The Mets payroll is at least double ours and the roster is loaded with quality players. Slumps can end at a moments notice. The best part of this week was 24 runs against the pirates in 3 games. Hitting is the greater concern. The pitching has been better than the hitting, and we have significant injury reinforcements coming on the pitching side with no hitters on the horizon really in the minors or injuries. Maybe frelick, maybe Hiura. Both would specifically fill a need and it would be great if they put up big july numbers in AAA to provide an option.
  2. KeithStone53151
    It wouldn't be unusual for him to pursue FO staff. For example, let's say he's familiar with really good stats guy that's ready to advance to the next level...maybe he'd pursue that guy to be stats director. Those positions may not exist in reality, but you get the concept. It's no different from a NFL head coach hire going back to his old coaching staff and grabbing a guy or two for advanced positions. Maybe the QB coach becomes his new OC. And...doing this I wouldn't view as tampering. Considering Counsell wasn't even a Stearns choice/hire, it's far less certain that he'd even want Counsell as his manager. Especially with unlimited funds. To a different point, I will say it wouldn't overly surprise me if the Mets end up being accused of tampering allegations...that they talked contract/agreement with Stearns for 2024 before he left the Brewers in 2022. I'm not about to line up and accuse, because it's not being talked about and no evidence exists that we know of, but it would make sense if evidence surfaced. A little bit of curiosity/speculation on this specific piece of this whole topic/thread is pretty darn reasonable in my opinion.
  3. KeithStone53151
    Already making moves is one thing, and almost certainly not happening. But it seems fairly likely that he left the Brewers last year intent on POBO for the Mets in 2024. Maybe there was/is no agreement in place, but both parties have wanted this for a while and if/when Stearns wants to start working again...I expect this will be the outcome.
  4. KeithStone53151
    I had to check, Yelich really is grading as above average defender this year. But, that's an improvement at age 31 over three consecutive below average defensive seasons. I suspect that's not going to continue over the life of his contract, it may not continue as soon as next season as this could simply be a small sample size. Yelich's career trajectory is most easily explainable by being a great contact hitter, and in his peak years MLB juiced the ball leading to him hitting a lot more HR than he rightfully should have...which he parlayed into a big contract extension. I have a lot more hope that the current slash line is sustainable for a few more years, and he keeps stealing 30-40 bases for at least 2 more years. That probably puts us at 2 more years of paying 25-50% above market and 3 years of paying 60-80% above market. I know that seems doom and gloom, but coming into this year he looked like he'd be in a position to get kicked to the bench by the young crop down the stretch. So this improvement is quite huge for this contract not being a massive failure.
  5. KeithStone53151
    Agreed, except I don't think DFA Winker does anything at all...except maybe tell the roster to figure it out or you could be next. But it's not like we have a guy down in AAA pounding the baseball and ready to get a shot at this level. Either the guys we have need to improve to career norms or better, or good chance we'll be big sellers in a month.
  6. KeithStone53151
    Yelich? Let's not get carried away...
  7. KeithStone53151
    I think you'd be surprised how many people on the mlb roster would obliterate AAA pitching. Probably a good chunk of the active roster including guys like Voit and Winker who are bad right now.
  8. KeithStone53151
    I believe I saw something early in the preseason that Hiura made significant mechanical adjustments. Who knows how true that is. But there are a couple noteworthy differences between this Hiura and previous Hiura. He's 26 now and I'll stray off into 2 points on that. First, 27 is a very typical age where hitters will peak. Lots of career seasons at 27. And approaching that threshold might make a difference. Two, other players I'm familiar with that had elite bat speed but struggled early on include Carlos Gomez, Rickie Weeks, Javy Baez...all 3 of these guys really turned a corner at that 26/27 and put together a few really good offensive years. None of these guys are apples to apples, most notably Gomez/Baez are all-world defenders at their position...which with that you can kinda deal with mediocre offense in the case of baez and bad offense in the case of gomez. All that said, there are certainly enough positive factors that having hope in Hiura is a reasonable take. It's also not a difficult argument to make that Hiura might be worth taking a chance on his AAA production being real improvements given the production of Winker/Voit to date. You really can't get 600ish OPS from platooning DH's, just not good enough.
  9. KeithStone53151
    Dillard with a really nice analysis of that umpire error, though I will give the ump credit for not tossing winker. Most of the umps in the league would have tossed him almost immediately
  10. KeithStone53151
    Where's the high pitch to Adames called a strike? Was it just so bad it didn't appear in the chart?
  11. KeithStone53151
    This game is a perfect example of why umpires need their power checked, why umpires should be able to lose their jobs, and why we need automated strike zones. I just watched highlights, this umpire is an absolute embarrassment and he should not be umpiring major league baseball games. This guy clearly had a vendetta against Adames for some unknown reason. Wild to me that umpires can screw up so badly and as soon as the manager or player say anything... ejection.
  12. KeithStone53151
    Agreed. An epic fail by the jets likely means Rodgers was trash, and in that case getting literally anything is better than having bad Rodgers in 2023 and the cap problem in 2024. There are far more scenarios that the Packers win this trade than the jets. The jets basically need Rodgers to be MVP Rodgers, but even in that case it would be a win/win if Jordan love is the real deal.
  13. KeithStone53151
    Even in an extreme case? Let's say the jets are 1-8 to start the season and Rodgers looks old/bad but is healthy? In that case they are also in serious risk of that pick being an ultra valuable top 5 pick. I generally tend to agree that the 4-7 jets are not punting on the season, I think it takes a very extreme scenario for them to consider benching Rodgers to save the draft pick. I'll add the GM would almost certainly be fired at the 1-8 mark if Rodgers was bad and potentially benched.
  14. KeithStone53151
    Yeah, pick 42 obviously completely changes the valuation. Overall this seems like a pretty reasonable compromise based on what the reported offers/asks were...although the Jets didn't protect themselves from a scenario where Rodgers only plays 1 year.
  15. KeithStone53151
    Ehhhh, the Pirates have a good young core. One of that young core is out for the season, but they have young talent and it was more a matter of when not if they would get good. I didn't think it would be this quick...still might not be. Changing of the guards happen in baseball much quicker than projection systems can catch them. The year the Cubs won like 100 games and went deep in the playoffs with the Baez/Rizzo/Bryant core...most projection systems had them around 80-82 wins.
  16. KeithStone53151
    Late to the party, I'm pretty thrilled that the A's are moving. Them having to play in that stadium for so long while the City threw up so many road blocks, it seemed inevitable. It's one thing to not want to shell out a ton of taxpayer dollars to build a new stadium, it's quite another to block a team from buying land to build a new stadium. Vegas seems like a weird choice, I feel like there are other more viable options. Being on the west, they could have simply gone to Portland. San Antonio would also be a good choice. Others seem to be noting that there are quite a few decent options for Milwaukee to potentially be moved. It seems unlikely to me though. Milwaukee has notably high attendance, it would seem weird to move a team from a city where fans turn out despite market size.
  17. KeithStone53151
    The article states the agreement starts this season and buys out 2 free agent years. If the agreement indeed starts in 2023, then it would only buy out 1 free agent year(the option could buy out a second). For those interested in extending Mitchell/Frelick/Wiemer/Turang, this is probably on the high end of what a 6 year deal would/should look like. Hunter Greene's arm talent is undeniable, it should simply be a matter of time before he starts seeing better results...but it's certainly too early to know for sure, and it's hard for a guy like Greene to not take the "set your family for life" guarantee at age 23 despite the fact he could easily double this if he rolled a 3ish ERA for the next 5 seasons.
  18. KeithStone53151
    I tend to agree that i think Burnes makes his next start. MLB athletes receive world class treatment on any injuries. It seemed he strained it during the run down and pitched through it for a bit. I'll agree that if it's a problem during his bullpen session maybe they push him back, but with the treatment he's getting and preparation for it pre-game...I suspect he'll be fine. Worst case most likely is they push him back a couple days or skip one start. I think a trip to the DL is extremely unlikely.
  19. KeithStone53151
    Is there any universe in which the team with the bullpen with the a bottom 5 k rate doesn't have ERA regression? What's weird is, there are 4 teams near the bottom in this category and there's a significant gap between us and the 5th worst team. Those 4 teams are us, rays, athletics, nationals. 2 teams at the very top of the standings, and 2 at the very bottom
  20. KeithStone53151
    I've seen him pitch a couple times and his stuff is really good. One thing I found interesting, he has significant reverse career splits. RH batters hit him much better, with that pitch mix I would think he'd struggle more with lefties. I'm sure CC has absolutely no idea, or simply doesn't care, and we'll see every LH we have in the lineup today.
  21. KeithStone53151
    Houser should be back soon, but yes certainly a difficult spot with so many injuries. If we can make do with Rea/Houser and hopefully avoid more injuries...we could potentially add an arm at the deadline AND get Woodruff back and be in a great spot to make a serious run.
  22. KeithStone53151
    I spent a few minutes looking at Flexen on statcast. Tops out at 92, 4 pitches, 8.74 ERA, around 10% k rate. Should be an easy win right. I look at his pitch by pitch data. Every one of his 4 pitches has a 25% whiff rate or higher. How the heck does he only have 10% k rate with those whiff rates? Maybe guys are trying to hit the ball to another planet early in the atbat at a high rate, plus small sample? The only noticeable change in his stuff I can see is his cutter/slider have a bit more break while his fastball is a little more straight compared to last year. All signs point to a beating, that said we typically struggle against these soft tossing weirdos so who knows.
  23. KeithStone53151
    There were go! That play by Willy was a game winning play
  24. KeithStone53151
    That inning was an absolute masterpiece by Williams.
  25. KeithStone53151
    I think the brewers have a better shot today than yesterday despite a similar starting pitching situation. Arizona was one of the best hitting teams in the league when we came to town...
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