KeithStone53151

If someone wants to look up whether this is a 40 man crunch thing, be my guest. Aside from that I don't understand this. Kike is still a good defender but at this point, with what the Dodgers have, he might be the literal worst hitter on the active roster the minute the trade is finalized. Nick Robertson had some big league innings, FB/CH guy 94/87 split on statcast with low fastball spin. Vanilla as it gets for middle relief stuff. Hagenman isn't in the top 30 prospects but seems somewhat promising as a reliever, though in my 5 minute search i couldn't find a scouting report. As much as these guys are underwhelming, Kike doesn't offer much value so I don't really understand this trade from the Dodgers standpoint.

I believe my argument is stronger on Eloy Jimenez than yours. You cited OPS+ and years of team control as your arguments, that's it. I cited a somewhat comparable player, his defense, his base running, his injury issues, money owed through his "team control", the thoughts of a handful of other bfnet posters, AND this trade value website. All of those factors paint a more clear picture of his value than the very limited and cherry picked information you provided in your argument. If 8 people are talking about a topic, 7 think one thing and 1 guy completely disagrees and thinks another...I'm generally going to be inclined to think the 7 are right. And that has nothing to do with a straw man argument, I question whether you actually know what that is. And I would say I mostly disagree on the value of Burger with the trade evaluator. Black's makes sense. I'll do more looking at Burger if I have time but that seems really high based on an initial look at age, position, and stat line.

This doesn't have the intended effect, as I didn't use this website as my only source of information. I also ventured much further into my analysis than OPS+ and remaining years on contract. I also don't have every other poster on this site involved in the topic disagreeing with me.

Regarding CJ Cron among others, does anyone have any insight as to what contending teams are looking for 1b/DH types? I looked simply at production at 1b and DH. Contending teams getting poor production from those positions include Astros, Phillies, Marlins, Reds, and maybe the Angels. The Astros have Jose Abreu at 1b along with 2 other RH bats that play some 1b/DH. I don't think they are contenders for Cron. The Phillies have Harper, Schwarber, Castellanos, Bohm that generally play LF/RF/1b/DH. I would think they'd be more inclined to target a corner OF to allow Schwarber/Castellanos/Harper to DH/1b most of the time. The Reds have Votto at 1b everyday and rotate a handful of guys at DH. Cron makes some sense to them, but I would assume they are more focused on pitching. Marlins have Soler and Cooper at 1b/DH most of the time, I don't think they are in the market for Cron. Angels have a pretty decent bat at DH and a Moose playing a lot of 1b, plus they might not buy...though Cron was in the org previously so they may be more inclined to target him. Primary point being, there isn't a better fit for Cron that in Milwaukee...and I don't see a ton of competition for his services. I expect the primary focus for almost every contender being pitching.

I went over to a white sox forum, with my goal to find some slightly white sox biased viewpoints on the value of jimenez to get a general gauge in comparison to my thoughts. Do they view him as an all star if he can stay healthy? A core piece? Is he in fan-created trades? etc. I stopped when I found this...say what you want about bfnet overvaluing prospects, but there's no universe that Jake Burger is worth these 2, or even half of one of them. "I think Burger ends up with Brewers, he's blocked here for the forseeable future by Vaughn and Eloy, his value is at an all time high, and he fits their needs and window. Something like Jeferson Quero and Tyler back coming back this way." Edit - I actually like Burger as a target. The last 2 years he's obliterated LH pitching, and he's a perfect fit for what we're looking for. But again, we can get him for a small fraction of the above suggestion.

JD Martinez - 790 OPS = bad season. Eloy Jimenez - 825 career OPS = above average hitter... You're right, we should ignore that website. You're definitely better positioned to judge the value of players than that website. You'd have a better argument if that was the only support I provided. I honestly am not going to further dispute this with you because you don't debate in good faith. You're ignoring the comparable contract JD Martinez signed at age 29 when he was on his 4th consecutive season of 139+ OPS each season. You're ignoring the fact that Eloy can't stay healthy. You're ignoring the fact that Eloy can't be even a below average defender at any position. You're ignoring the fact that he's a negative on the bases. You're cherry-picking certain offensive metrics that paint Eloy in a positive light and trying to drive home a valuation based on that while ignoring all offsetting negatives. Every commenter so far on this topic has disagreed with you on this.

Valuations on the Brewers players is difficult, but Jimenez has 5 years of data and has a negative FMV. Which is additional support that you are way way way way way way way off on his valuation

I think I made clear with Uribe there's a wide range of valuation because it's not really clear how he's going to pan out. It's also extremely typical for younger pitchers to have command issues and improve on them as they get older. I looked at a few successful hard throwing relievers including Williams, Hader, Alexis Diaz, Jordan Hicks, etc...all these guys were walking 5ish per 9 in the minors before coming up. Heck a lot of these guys are still walking 4-5 per 9 as successful mlb arms. If Uribe throws 80 innings in the majors like Devin Williams or Josh Hader, he'll be worth a lot more than Jimenez is right now considering his contract...so there's something to be said about getting in on an arm like him early before the valuation explodes. And regarding Jimenez, I feel like you have way too much love for a bat only player. Compare him to JD Martinez, it's probably as favorable a comparison as you'll be able to get. JD Martinez has a history of staying healthy, and was a below average defender until 2021 where he switched to mostly DH. Excluding the COVID year, JD Martinez worst 3 seasons over the last 10 years are better than Eloy's best 3 seasons ever. JD Martinez in 2018, at his absolute peak value, was valued at $110M over 5 years on the open market. Eloy's current contract(with options) is 3 years roughly $50 million. That contract is maybe fair market value right now? I personally would rather have JD Martinez for 1 year $10 million he just signed for on the open market than pay Eloy 3/$50 million. So you continue to claim he has all this team control when in reality, the team control kinda sucks. I mean, the Angels have team control on Rendon...but what's that worth?

This sentence doesn't really make sense. This would actually be a retooling and gaining team control, in theory this type of trade would make more sense for a team trying to contend in 2024 than one involving prospects in AA and below. There's probably not enough here unless they reeeeeally like Uribe, because Hiura/Urias have very little value right now. I also generally disagree with your take on Uribe. The guy is making mince meat of mlb hitters right now. I think you'd be a bit surprised what he'd be valued at currently, considering his contract/team control situation. Not equal to Jimenez, but this is a guy with the stuff/trajectory to be competing for our closer job in a year or two. It's generally difficult to value guys like Uribe, guys with huge upside but super early into their team control...especially a reliever. And with any pitcher, there's the inherent risk of being 1 throw away from missing a year and a half and losing 3 mph on the fastball at full recovery. There's a wide range of possible valuation, I don't see a current non-contender valuing him where needed to make sense to us.

Ashcraft has been on a roll his last 4-5 starts, and his stuff is really good. It's a bit frustrating that we've had so much traffic and only 1 run. Here's hoping we can get that key hit

Of the reasons to have Miller higher in the order, this scenario is one. Contact guy that should have enough veteran savvy to at least hit a grounder to the 2b

Imagine if that happened with guys on first and third...

That pitch was outside corner, clear strike...not borderline...but a far cry from "right down the middle"

Apparently for de la Cruz second at bat, the scoreboard under player trivia said something to the effect of "almost got a home run in the first inning...but didn't". I blame that guy more than rea

This is more of a suggested framework than a specific proposal, but I'm a bit shocked that you find this as one sided as you do...I'm not sure which side is getting fleeced in your opinion

Ok fine, turang can hit 9 with Miller at 8. Taylor almost never plays to this point, so he's a silly person to include. Despite your best efforts to argue that miller is not that bad of a hitter...or something, he's approaching 1000 career PA of 645 ops production. I would be more inclined to blame MA if Miller was hitting 8/9, but since he's hit in the top 6 spots consistently in July... Clearly CC views him as a productive hitter which is laughable.

Why? That's stupid. Best hitters up top, worst hitters at the bottom. I learned that when I was 5. Miller is the worst hitter on the roster, besides Winker. The fact he's still hitting 4-6 and not 8/9 everyday tells you that CC doesn't realize that Miller is horrible at hitting...or he doesn't care and his obsession with AAAA utility players lives on. CC should have had a bug in MA's ear weeks ago to get him a 1b from the minors as he realized Miller stopped hitting(while Tellez wasn't getting it done)

Sounds like a conversation he should be having with MA. If his hands were as tied as you make it seem, I think we'd see Miller hitting 8/9 more often than he hits in the 4-6 range. Just a few days ago he was batting cleanup.

Miller OPS by month April - 660 May - 995 June - 586 July - 506 Is Counsell really stupid enough to give a guy a seasons worth of at bats because he's had one good month his entire career?

I mean, he's not wrong...but then explain why Owen Miller is playing 1b and hitting in the middle of the order...

See, I'm looking around at SP/RP options available...I'm almost wondering if the Brewers are best served making a true baseball trade of pitching for hitting at the deadline. We could trade an arm performing well with team control to a team like the angels/mariners/padres/etc...for a better rental that they'll lose next year. I wonder if a Rea for Justin Turner type of swap makes sense. The Orioles have a lot of young pitchers and would make sense to add a starter and move to a 6 starter rotation to lower the innings count on some younger arms, they also have an abundance of corner OF/1b types between MLB and AAA and would make sense to trade one with less team control to open up space for Kjerstad/Cowser to get more regular AB. Point being, there are more teams with available bat first corner OF/1b types than teams with varying levels of quality/in form SP available at the deadline.

There's quite a bit they could be doing with this spot. Wilson, Hiura, Woodruff(unlikely to this point), Black, trade, etc. There isn't any specific need to rush filling that spot either, maybe just trying to sneak Alexander through early while other teams are more focused on other things.

Advanced metrics are a bit more kind to Johnson than back of the baseball card numbers, but i tend to agree it's a lot for simply a guy in the bullpen. Not like Johnson will be pitching the 8th consistently unless he improves a lot. It's also early...seems like the Rockies set a fairly high asking price and the Braves must see enough of something in Johnson to simply meet it before other teams get more aggressive. It's certainly a choice, we'll see how it plays out.

Step 1 to being active...now keep your eyes out for Cron/Grichuk/Blackmon

Considering the Brewers needs and the players the Rockies are likely to make available, it would be weird if we didn't make a trade for them. Grichuk and Cron are virtually guaranteed to be traded, Blackmon is fairly likely. McMahon is unlikely. All 4 of those guys would fit great on this roster, some would be better than others of course. Many are pointing to road splits for Rockies players, a reminder that 3 of their divisional opponents have the most pitcher friendly parks in the majors. They certainly get a boost from Coors, the reality of their effectiveness is probably somewhere between home and road splits.