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KeithStone53151

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Everything posted by KeithStone53151

  1. KeithStone53151
    The original deal appeared fair for both sides on paper, at least that's what I thought. But based on what we got for Ruiz...it's possible if not likely that prospect rankings pundits(and all of us) were completely wrong on the value of Ruiz. The prospect rankers I'm sure do a fine job, but they are lightyears behind the talent evaluation capabilities of mlb teams.
  2. KeithStone53151
    I'll stick with the stuff/statistics combo in this case. Luke Weaver has made 1 quality start out of 15 tries in 2023, with 2 other starts you might consider decent. The rest were varying degrees of bad. He also has arguably the worst stuff of anybody that has started more than a couple games in the majors this year. I wouldn't say it is likely that Luke Weaver dominates anyone above AA again. Now if he was left handed, I'd be terrified...but he's not.
  3. KeithStone53151
    That generally makes sense. Back when 4 teams made the playoffs, you might have 6 to 8 teams at most in each league trying to win and the other 7 to 9 as sellers. Now 6 make the playoffs. The only guaranteed sellers so far in the NL are the nationals, cardinals, and rockies. The cardinals also probably won't sell stars as they'll retool for 2024. The padres, pirates, cubs, and mets are potential sellers...but one good week of baseball could easily change that equation. The other 8 teams will be buyers unless they have a catastrophic losing streak out of the gate. So the ratio is 8 buyers, 3 sellers, 4 maybes. I assume the ratio is similar in the AL. Definitely going to be more of a sellers market at deadlines going forward.
  4. KeithStone53151
    Imagine if the Reds were like "The Brewers need a lot more than just one hitter". It's probably great motivation for the guys in the clubhouse, but it's a factual statement and deep down...the guys in the clubhouse know it. I personally am just not concerned it's going to have the effect this Reds fansite wants it to have. It's not like Luke Weaver is going to show up extra motivated and blow us away with his 7 ERA stuff.
  5. KeithStone53151
    Taylor almost certainly replaces Tapia or Perkins. Him and Winker, despite being outfielders, serve completely different purposes to the team. Winker, if replaced, will be replaced by Tellez or Hiura or an external DH/1b type. I think Rowdy and Winker are going to be on fairly short leashes and are candidates for replacement at the deadline depending who else is available. I think the Brewers need to add 2 bats, ideally a CF and then a 1b/DH type. If not a CF, a RF would be fine. Defensively it would be quite valuable to move Wiemer to RF in favor of a plus defender in CF which would really solidify the defense. As much as we need offense, the true strength of this team is run prevention...any winning we do beyond sept 30 will be largely due to run prevention. Also worth noting, it was really great when Miller was a demon at the plate in May. He's been quite mediocre, maybe below mediocre, since May and should not be considered an everyday top of the order hitter anymore. I would be very surprised if he had another 3-4 week stretch of 300+ hitting this season. That addition of bats will hopefully lead to Miller starting maybe twice a week and finding specific PH spots for him against lefties.
  6. KeithStone53151
    The Dodgers acquire Tyson Miller, they are really something with coming after every one of our arms.
  7. KeithStone53151
    Ignoring history, it would make more sense to target a premium relief rental if we were dominating the NL Central and gearing up for a true postseason run...but were losing too many close games, or simply wanted to create a 2 headed bullpen monster. There's certainly something to be said about being able to get a lead after 7 innings and have a virtually guaranteed win. All that said, we have too many other priorities. Our resources for a playoff push are better used for a true impact bat, or multiple quality bats that are less expensive than an impact bat. Yelich, Adames, Contreras, Wiemer, Miller, Caratini, maybe Anderson. Those are the guys at or projected to clear 1 WAR by end of season. We really have 4 guys that make sense as starting everyday players and should be looking to add 2-3 quality players to play most/all games. Caratini, Anderson, and Miller are part time players on any other contender. You could argue Wiemer also should be a part time player, but he has power and defensive metrics love him this year. Almost all internal potential second half reinforcements are on the pitching side. We should almost exclusively be targeting hitting at the deadline, or be selling.
  8. KeithStone53151
    I suspect...based on little else besides tin foil hat stuff...that part of the dodgers reasons for acquiring a fair amount of our arms the last few years is trying to figure out what we're doing with our pitching lab. We are one of the top teams at taking guys completely off everyone's radar and turning them into effective relievers. Not to mention we've been developing pretty darn good starting pitching as well. We're clearly doing a lot right in pitcher development, and the Dodgers have plucked too many guys specifically from us for it to be a coincidence
  9. KeithStone53151
    That certainly reduces the odds and potentially the return, but he certainly could have teams he's interested in moving to. He also seems a bit disgruntled where he's at, so he might be more open to moving to really any big market that's legit contending. The Yankees and Dodgers are actually specifically good fits for him off the top of my head.
  10. KeithStone53151
    Pham I think is a nice fit. I assume he can play RF, right now I feel like we are rotating Perkins/Tapia over there so very likely upgrade if the groin injury isn't too concerning. A slightly better fit would be a CF that can hit so we can move Wiemer to rf and have a better defense, but this is fine especially at our ballpark.
  11. KeithStone53151
    I think the Cardinals probably trade him because I think they can get real good offers right now. Arenado is 32 and still a star, the Cardinals are bad and a rebuild would make more sense for them than trying to spend their way to wildcard contenders for a couple years. The farm system isn't quite the same as it once was. Add to that, the corner infield market is very thin. He won't come here, but think about how impactful Arenado could be on the Brewers right now. Complete game changer, whereas aside from him the best obviously available bat on the market at any position is Jeimer Candelario. The only thing the Cardinals could do that would be smarter than trading Arenado, is to not trade him AND immediately hire Molina for whatever price it would take to be the manager. If that happened, I would immediately place a bet on the Cardinals winning the division before vegas changed the odds.
  12. KeithStone53151
    mlb pipeline has done I want to say 2 updates to their rankings already with the most recent being one or two weeks ago. That said, there's only so much processing of information they can do in a short time span and analysis on top of that. If time stood still right now and they could do 6 months worth of analysis on the data from the 2023 season, you'd definitely see a heck of a lot more movement than we've seen in the smaller updates they've done so far. To answer the specific question, I don't think Quero should pass Chourio yet. Results are only part of the equation at this stage, especially for younger guys. Chourio clearly has a skill set/tools that scouts drooled over in 2022 and that skill set didn't disappear. He's certainly being challenged at age 19 in AA, I'm not ready to move Quero ahead of him. With all that said, it's pretty clear Quero and Mis are candidates for big big jumps in the rankings whenever they get a proper analysis.
  13. KeithStone53151
    One other aspect to consider, every team values prospects differently and certainly have a better feel for success than prospect guru's do...and much better than any of us. Look no further than the catcher trade over the winter. The A's must have valued Ruiz incredibly high to make that trade. Also your viewpoints on blue chip prospects is severely flawed. By the time the guys you referenced hit AA/AAA, they were literally untouchable. By that point, every team can see the makings of a superstar and wouldn't trade them for anything. I'd argue Harper/Bryant would have never been realistically traded for anything from the day they were drafted. You aren't wrong that none of our prospects are the same caliber of prospects as some of the best prospects in the history of baseball...it doesn't mean they aren't viable options in a trade for Robert. Of the three holes you poked in our prospects, the only really fair one is Frelick. Black won't necessarily need an average mlb caliber arm to make a big impact at the mlb level...and virtually all 21 year olds don't have mlb caliber command, especially 21 year olds that can hit triple digits. If Misiorowski had mlb caliber command today, I don't think we'd trade him for Robert straight up.
  14. KeithStone53151
    One fun, cheap idea if the Cardinals are willing to play ball would be to trade for O'Neill. He's really talented, and I suspect part of his issues this season relate to bad management. I remember him getting called out for not running the bases hard enough. If there's bad blood with him and the organization, there's some added motivation we'll say...for a bounce back second half.
  15. KeithStone53151
    Not to get off topic, but if Ohtani came available at the deadline even as a rental...the price would be absolutely bonkers for half season of him.
  16. KeithStone53151
    The minimum cost for the nationals to let him go is certainly low, but I suspect candelario gets bid up a bit based on how many teams will want him. He can play 1b/3b, he's a switch hitter, and he's hitting really well right now. I don't really know of many other 1b/3b that are as good as him right now that are obvious targets. And with the DH, most contenders could at least use a guy like him. What team couldn't use a switch hitter that's hitting? Most likely scenario is a big market gives up way more than the brewers are willing to because they can much more easily fill holes in free agency and therefore the farm isn't as important to them.
  17. KeithStone53151
    Without looking, I'm guessing every fan forum for contending teams has this guy penciled into their roster. I'm sure the offers will be significantly more than the minimum price required to move him as most contenders could at least use him. Usually the Brewers don't make it work with the obvious options that are highly sought after, I am guessing we'll get outbid here.
  18. KeithStone53151
    I would say moreso I think Yadi got so much more out of the pitching staff than probably anyone else possibly could...which also helped hide the defensive woes a bit.
  19. KeithStone53151
    It takes 10 minutes for the roof to close. So not only are we perfectly timing when rain comes into the area, but also timing the closing of the roof to perfectly coincide with the start of brewers batting? This is quite the competitive advantage we have. Wait until other teams find out about the guy on our staff that practices wizardry and voodoo magic. You think Mike Trout's hamate was a freak injury...think again.
  20. KeithStone53151
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_rules There's a section in this link which is sourced information. Universal[edit] The decision as to whether a game begins with the roof open or closed rests solely with the home club. If the game begins with the roof open: It shall be closed only in the event of impending rain or other adverse weather conditions. The decision to close the roof shall be made by the home club, after consultation with the Umpire Crew Chief. The Umpire Crew Chief shall notify the visiting club, which may challenge the closing of the roof if it feels that a competitive imbalance will arise. In such an event, the Umpire Crew Chief shall make a final decision based on the merits of the challenge.
  21. KeithStone53151
    I don't buy this pitch being a cutter based on statcast data. His 4 seamer has a ton of vertical drop but almost no horizontal movement. It certainly moves far different on average than the majority of 4 seam fastballs in the league. It could be a case of being a bit of an artist with his movement leading to it actually being more than a 2 pitch arsenal, but even with that he doesn't seem to have the stuff or arm talent to justify his current stat line. That said, I also didn't think Hendricks could make a career out of exclusively flirting with the outside corner with extremely below average stuff...but here he is posting quality starts with an 87 mph fastball.
  22. KeithStone53151
    This guy throws 2 pitches 96% of the time, with the main pitch being a 92 mph fastball. How in the world is he getting through orders 2-3 times? That 2.43 ERA tells me it isn't just us he's dominating.
  23. KeithStone53151
    It sure seems like this could be a huge couple weeks, but it seems way too likely that we win 4 or 5 and it stays effectively the same. It would take a 7-2 by one team to really dent playoff odds
  24. KeithStone53151
    Listen to this doofus.....coming from the side that had a rain out on a day with zero rain and lobbied to change city rules for game times to allow their team to play a Friday night game for the first time ever
  25. KeithStone53151
    Someone at google is like "why are so many people in wisconsin searching "jahmai jones"?"
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