KeithStone53151

Has it never happened in the history of baseball where a young player had a breakout year, followed by an extremely down year, followed by significant improvement to somewhere between the two extremes? Sometimes guys have down years. The last 3 years Bryce Harper went from an 1100 OPS to an 800 OPS back up to 1000 OPS. Lucroy, Hart, Braun, Fielder, Hardy, etc...all these guys had a weird down year at some point in their 20s and rebounded from it(Braun's came at age 30). I think everyone on the board knows you are in favor of signing walker or platooning Sogard/Perez with Villar traded. It's not an unreasonable opinion. Defending it with "well this is what we did in September" isn't going to get you anywhere. 2b is a position where nothing is set in stone right now, any of those 3 players could win part of a time share or a permanent role as starting 2b over the next 2 months...or we could sign Walker. Believe me when I say, nobody is determining our starting 2b based solely on September usage.

I also noted how high Houser is, that surprised me quite a bit. I like Houser, but that's a silly ranking.

Daniel Hudson is a good get for Dickerson.

I feel like HighHeat wouldn't consider Arrieta signing with the Brewers "bad news" even if it is a painfully long contract. I have to think it means Arrieta/Cobb are signing elsewhere - perhaps one with the Cards. Agreed on Cards, it makes all the sense in the world for them to make a big move. I thought they'd be more inclined to target Holland though. I guess no reason they can't target 2 of the remaining big free agents.

Now he says prepare for bad news. If Cobb signs elsewhere in the next 24 hours or the Brewers sign Arrieta to a 6 year deal in the next 24 hours, I'll consider that comment a good call.

And he's answering questions right now. I see he bumped Woodruff down to a B, probably a good call.

Does this mean there's nearly a certainty that ONE of these two will happen or that BOTH of these will happen? I take his cut comment to mean 95% one is traded or cut. It makes 0 sense to cut Villar or Broxton, Broxton could go to AAA and Villar is too dynamic with too much potential to simply cut. Aguilar or Perez make some sense to cut based on demand and Perez based on non-guaranteed salary.

Do you have a feel for the contract offers Cobb is getting? I understand you probably don't want to share specifics and I'll get a yes/no answer, just curious if you have an inside track on the #'s.

27-28 level bust out? 29-30 were bad 31 was actually his good year since his prime. He can easily go down from last years totals. He's 3 years removed from being impactful. He's had some broxton to him 2 of the last 3 years. I don't realky think that's a sales pitch. I generally don't think a team will get much for Gomez at the deadline, but for different reasons than you. A hot hitter at the deadline will be a target for teams. If a guy is hot, teams aren't going to say "well he was bad when he was 30" when they are renting a guy for 2 months. What he did 2 years ago is 100% irrelevant. The reason he won't get much is because of how teams are valuing rentals. Swarzak got a middling prospect. Look at all it took to get JD Martinez at the deadline. Gomez will get a fraction of what Martinez got. Best case scenario is probably getting someone like 21 year old Dubon, which isn't a terrible return but it doesn't really move the needle for a team. I think rentals have dropped enough in value that a team can't even get a Parra type return of Davies(What an outstanding return that turned out to be).

Having Gray likely means we don't have Yelich. Maybe you are ok with that, or even prefer that...it's worth noting though. Gray was going to require Brinson+, and he simply isn't worth that in my opinion.

1. Yu Darvish – PREDICTION: Cubs. Six years, $160MM. ACUTAL: Cubs. Six years, $126M 2. J.D. Martinez – PREDICTION: Red Sox. Six years, $150MM. 3. Eric Hosmer – PREDICTION: Royals. Six years, $132MM. ACTUAL: Padres, eight years, $144M (or opt out after five years, $105M) 4. Jake Arrieta – PREDICTION: Brewers. Four years, $100MM. 5. Masahiro Tanaka – PREDICTION: Phillies. Five years, $100MM. ACTUAL: Opted into Yankees contract. 6. Mike Moustakas – PREDICTION: Braves. Five years, $85MM. 7. Lorenzo Cain – PREDICTION: Giants. Four years, $70MM. ACTUAL: Brewers. Five years, $80M 8. Wade Davis – PREDICTION: Astros. Four years, $60MM. ACTUAL: Rockies. Three years, $52M 9. Lance Lynn – PREDICTION: Rangers. Four years, $56MM. 10. Greg Holland – PREDICTION: Cardinals. Four years, $50MM. 11. Alex Cobb – PREDICTION: Twins. Four years, $48MM. 12. Carlos Santana – PREDICTION: Indians. Three years, $45MM. ACTUAL: Phillies. Three years, $60M 13. Zack Cozart – PREDICTION: Padres. Three years, $42MM. ACTUAL: Padres. Three years, $38M 14. Jay Bruce – PREDICTION: Blue Jays. Three years, $39MM. ACTUAL: Mets. Three years, $39M 15. Logan Morrison – PREDICTION: Red Sox. Three years, $36MM. 16. Addison Reed – PREDICTION: Cubs. Four years, $36MM. ACTUAL: Twins. Two years, $16,75M 17. Todd Frazier – PREDICTION: Mets. Three years, $33MM. ACTUAL: Mets. Two years, $17M 18. Mike Minor – PREDICTION: Dodgers. Four years, $28MM. ACTUAL: Rangers. Three years, $28M 19. Brandon Morrow – PREDICTION: Rockies. Three years, $24MM. ACTUAL: Cubs. Two years, $21M 20. Jonathan Lucroy – PREDICTION: Rockies. Two years, $24MM. 21. CC Sabathia – PREDICTION: Yankees. Two years, $24MM. ACTUAL: Yankees. One year, $10M 22. Yonder Alonso – PREDICTION: Angels. Two years, $22MM. ACTUAL: Indians. Two years, $16M 23. Carlos Gomez – PREDICTION: Royals. Two years, $22MM. 24. Juan Nicasio – PREDICTION: Twins. Three years, $21MM. ACTUAL: Mariners. Two years, $17M 25. Bryan Shaw – PREDICTION: Red Sox. Three years, $21MM. ACTUAL: Rockies. Three years, $27M 26. Michael Brantley – PREDICTION: White Sox. Two years, $20MM. ACTUAL: Indians exercised option. 27. Andrew Cashner – PREDICTION: Athletics. Two years, $20MM. ACTUAL: Orioles. Two years, $16M 28. Neil Walker – PREDICTION: Brewers. Two years, $20MM. 29. Tyler Chatwood – PREDICTION: Phillies. Three years, $20MM. ACTUAL: Cubs. Three years, $39M 30. Jake McGee – Cubs. PREDICTION: Three years, $18MM. ACTUAL: Rockies. Three years, $27M 31. Jaime Garcia – PREDICTION: Royals. Two years, $16MM. ACTUAL: Blue Jays. One year, $10M 32. Alex Avila – PREDICTION: Yankees. Two years, $16MM. ACTUAL: Diamondbacks. Two years, $8.25M 33. Jhoulys Chacin – PREDICTION: Reds. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Brewers. Two years, $16M. 34. Welington Castillo – PREDICTION: Athletics. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: White Sox. Two years, $15M 35. Eduardo Nunez – PREDICTION: Blue Jays. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Red Sox. One year, $6M. 36. Anthony Swarzak – PREDICTION: Brewers. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Mets. Two years, $14M 37. Steve Cishek – PREDICTION: Rangers. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Cubs. Two years, $13M 38. Brandon Kintzler – PREDICTION: Nationals. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Nationals. Two years, $10M 39. Jon Jay – PREDICTION: Rangers. Two years, $14MM. 40. Carlos Gonzalez – PREDICTION: Orioles. One year, $12MM. 41. Tommy Hunter – PREDICTION: Braves. Two years, $12MM. ACTUAL: Phillies. Two years, $18M 42. Jarrod Dyson – PREDICTION: Pirates. Two years, $12MM. 43. Pat Neshek – PREDICTION: Mariners. Two years, $12MM. ACTUAL: Phillies. Two years, $16.25 44. Tony Watson – PREDICTION: Blue Jays. Two years, $12MM. ACTUAL: Giants. Three years, $7M 45. Howie Kendrick – PREDICTION: Giants. Two years, $12MM. ACTUAL: Nationals. Two years, $7M 46. Jason Vargas – PREDICTION: Orioles. One year, $10MM. ACTUAL: Mets. Two years, $16M 47. Chris Tillman – PREDICTION: Tigers. One year, $10MM. ACTUAL: Orioles. One year, $3M 48. Lucas Duda – PREDICTION: Mariners. One year, $6MM. 49. Michael Pineda – PREDICTION: Rays. Two years, $6MM. ACTUAL: Twins. Two years, $10M 50. Miles Mikolas – PREDICTION: Padres. Two years, $10MM. ACTUAL: Cardinals. Two years, $15.5M I rolled this forward with some recent signings. It's notable how many Boras clients have signed in the last handful of days. Still 11 of the top 50 left to go. Crazy how little Gomez got. Instead of 2/$22, he gets 1/$4. I think all the pitchers get reasonably paid, Moose and Morrison might really get the shaft off their solid seasons. I could see 1/$10 type deals for them...which considering their initial asking prices is seriously insane.

If none of the main 5 options get moved, I think Santana/Thames will be the 2 that sit the most. Yelich will get 155, Cain 145, Braun 135. Santana and Cain will get to split roughly 225 starts including DH opportunities. Roughly 110-115 apiece isn't terrible. My guess is Yelich plays RF on days Santana sits and CF on days Cain sits. Braun obviously takes 1b when Thames sits. In a given 14 day stretch with 13 games, figure Braun sits twice and Yelich/Cain combine for 1 off day...that leaves 8 starts apiece for Thames/Santana. Plenty of AB to go around.

I don't think Domingo was ever going to the Rays after the moves they've been making. Then again, the moves Tampa is making seem to have no gameplan or thought process. It's almost like they wrote down 100 potential moves, threw them all in a hat, and started drawing randomly.

The obvious keeps include Harper, Lindor, Colome, Stroman. I would also keep Robles, Grandal, Gray, Gregorious, Rendon, Jones. This is assuming of course you can fit both Lindor and Gregorious in your lineup easily or can easily trade one. This keeps you under $65 million so no additional entry fee.

I have a hard time believing Woodruff would be a B+...he's more of a B in my opinion. But I don't know who else it would be. Hiura/Burnes are the obvious 2. Maybe he still has Ray that high based on tools? Maybe Peralta? The only other guy with a shot at a B+ would be phillips. I'm curious, and I'm surprised he hasn't posted results yet.

Is there a reason the A's don't want Fresno? That location makes so much sense for them. I would think if Vegas had to pick between us and the A's...our farm is better right now.

Someone needs to explain to me why Khris Davis couldn't handle doing this...

HH claims Burnes will not be part of a package for Archer. I wonder if we take a slightly different approach. 3 team trade with Cleveland. Brewers get: Archer Indians get: Santana Colome Rays gets: Mejia Phillips Ortiz Chang(cleveland) Add in a lottery ticket or two Might need minor tweaking but that seems like a decent haul for Archer/Colome.

I think I agree with you but does anyone have any data or factual evidence that many moves occur so close to the season? I am trying to remember previous years but do not remember a lot of movement other than people being let go and others trying to pick them up and stash them. This year is different though. Look at how many FA are still out there and players that are pretty widely knows to still be on the trading block. Nothing more than my hunch, but I won't be surprised if we see more deals done in April than ever before. April I would find very weird, though you could be right. I think most teams will want to have their 25 man rosters completely set by opening day.

If these guys are junk, I'm curious what your definition of even a decent player is. Maybe you'd consider Kershaw to be decent? Drury is a young, cost controlled 2b/3b that's put up a couple very solid years. Specifically note that he's young, and can still improve. Being young and cheap might help the yankees add elsewhere if they want, or maintain flexibility. Don't underestimate young/cheap with solid production. Banda was a top prospect that had a down year, he's still young and his stuff is still there. Souza I'm less sold on, but he's a cost controlled power bat and a better defender in RF than Santana. He also stole 16 bases last year, so he at the very least has some sneaky speed. I don't know anything about the lower tier prospects, but those 3 pieces all have significant value.

I'm not seeing the extra landing spot for Walker. Didn't this trade basically take the Yankees off the market for him? As for the OF landing spot, it opens up a spot on the Rays assuming they have any interest in Santana. Well the diamondbacks lost their 2b. I get they have Owings but that opens a spot for walker there. And a team rebuilding like the rays wouldn't want Santana. Philips maybe, not Santana.

I also feel like the trade was somewhat even, but the Yankees probably got slightly the best end of this deal.

Yeah I feel like this trade is all sorts of bad for the brewers. Takes away a landing spot for our OF, and creates a landing spot for walker that isn't Milwaukee. On a side, it's also bad for my dynasty fantasy baseball team as I was hoping moose would become a Yankee.

Generally agree with your logic and points. Just feels like a good time to reiterate how massively skewed those numbers because of Thames' April. Thames also had a very impressive September, ended the season on a good note.

This is what I'd go with too, maybe flipping Villar and Arcia depending on who's hot. This looks right to me too. To START the season. Anything can change, and act accordingly. When Thames starts, put him in 5 spot, take Braun out, and bump up Shaw and Santana a spot. Not to nitpick, but I'd argue to move yelich to the 3 hole on braun offdays. He would be our best hitter when braun isn't in the lineup. I would like to find a way to split up Shaw and Santana in the order, to avoid the high k guys back to back in run producing spots. That's easier to do if we bring in walker, you could throw him or Cain in the 5 spot with Santana 6th...tough to do without him though. Pina/Arcia aren't exactly high k guys but I wouldn't call them high contact guys either.