KeithStone53151

They probably still would rather go younger than Villar. If his value is truly that low, they should just sit and hold unless they’ve got a Rays-esque salary cutting request. I would like to think the Pirates could at minimum trade Harrison while eating most of the salary and net a decent prospect. You'd think they'd try to do something like that. I suspect Harrison would accept a QO if offered, so not like they can count on that compensation by keeping him...

If Santana doesn't move, I think it would make sense to try and split up him and Shaw. Both are very productive but both k a lot. If we add a walker, it gets easy to bat him or Cain between Shaw and Santana... moving Santana to 6th. Yelich should never bat after 3rd. 1-3 guaranteed.

Stearns made some public comments related to the trade that were covered by the brewers beat guys. What I basically took from it is, Stearns doesn't think Odorizzi is better enough than the in house options to be worth making a move. I agree

Odorizzi was trending very badly, I wouldn't have felt good about him in our rotation. It's not like he's this mid rotation starter that he was even 2 years back. Also I'm not sure there was much of a market for him. The Yankees may have wanted him but thats within the division. The Twins are a very savvy front office, they weren't gonna get duped like the Mariners FO in the lind deal.

I guess my first baseman isn't the guy I'm really worried about making productive outs. I'm not going to say that there's not a statistical plus to not striking out, but I don't know that there's really much of an actual statistical value over the course of a season to Hosmer striking out 110 - 120 times as opposed to 150 or 160 times. I was moreso referring to his ability to hit. A guy that hits 285/350/450 is far more valuable than a guy that hits 220/310/490. It is also possible he has a couple more seasons like his near 900 ops last season with a 318 average. Again, the deal is definitely too long...but i can understand it to some degree based on his age and the type of hitter he is. Guys that can flat out hit will generally age better than guys who rely heavily on athleticism for their value.

Hosmer has age on his side unlike most free agents. They should feel comfortable getting solid production from him for 3-4 years at least. I still think it's an overpay, but age should be a factor here. Also hosmer plays above his 800ish ops with his low k high avg stat line.

Are we sure they are having a fire sale? It made sense to me for them to move a starter to clear space for Honeywell.

I believe I initially saw mid-May as his timetable.

The Twins were looking for a starter before Santana went down. They still are likely in the market for 1 more arm even after this move.

Does anyone besides me find Wade Miley's comments a bit...irritating I guess for lack of a better word. Basically saying that he got lazy the last couple offseasons and really put forth and effort this offseason. I don't want an attitude like that anywhere near our team.

I think the odds of Dickerson clearing waivers are virtually zero. This is just weird. Even if the corner outfield market is minimal, I can't imagine why they'd cut a guy like him. Isn't he one of the best hitters on their team? Is he a dreadful defender or something...like braun at 3b with one hand tied behind his back bad?

What in the world? Didn't Tampa give up a bunch of value to get Dickerson a couple years ago? And he really hasn't been that bad...

Jeremy Hellickson has not aged very well for a changeup pitcher, and has struggled to come back from his injury in 2014; 2016 was decent, but 2015 and 2017... not so much. And he's only a year older than Cobb. I'm more concerned about Cobb's inability to stay healthy enough to start 30 games in a season during his physical prime than his pitch types, particularly on a 4-year deal. I'd be OK with Cobb on a 2-year deal, but a four year deal no way. For every Hellickson, there's a Hendricks or an Estrada or a Chase Anderson. There's one guy in the majors who's had success late in his career throwing a fastball as much as Lynn...and that's Bartolo Colon. From 2012 to 2017, the pitchers who threw 70% or more fastballs as a SP include Colon, Lynn, Masterson, Zach McCallister, Jarred Cosart, Juan Nicasio, Tyler Chatwood. Lynn and Colon are the only guys that are any good. Pitching that way simply isn't sustainable. That pitching style is not sustainable, while plenty of guys with great changeups pitch well into their mid 30s.

I'm guessing many of those betters anticipate us adding a SP. I wish I had a line on betting something like that and could have gotten in on that 81.5 win mark.

https://sports.bovada.lv/baseball/mlb-season-props Over/Under on Brewers wins currently is 84.5. Cardinals at 85.5 and Cubs at 94.5. Those projections make more sense than most of what we are seeing.

I think I've made my opinion known, I'm going to shift gears to get closer to on track. The remaining players that I think have a chance to get major league contracts as SP include Arrieta, Cobb, Lynn, Dickey, Feldman, Hellickson, Lackey, Peavy, Tillman, Lincecum. Of those 10, there are 4 or 5 significant reaches. Most of what I haven't listed will probably sign minor league deals fairly soon(Jimenez/Locke/Cahill/etc). We've also had 3 SP sign so far in the last 2 days, with them skipping tiers I have been wondering if either of Cobb/Lynn have agreements in principle with a specific team while they sort out final details(a 3-5 year contract will likely be more complex than the 1-2 year deals we've seen). I guess my point is that I could see the SP side of things(less Arrieta) reaching conclusion fairly soon. Position players likely aren't in as much of a rush as the SP, heck a guy like Hosmer could probably sign a week before opening day and be ready on time.

LOL. You may want to double-check the definition of "fair value"...as there is no way you can call what he negotiates for his players fair value. There's a reason none of his players are signed, dude needs a reality check. There are fewer and fewer boneheads like Dombrowski in the league for him to prey on and tank their ability to compete with his ridiculous contracts.

Of course Cobb is better than Suter or Wilkerson, but not on a 4 year deal at age 30. Garza's age 25-29 seasons: FIP (weighted): 3.90, K/9: 8.0, BB/9: 2.9, HR/9: 1.0; slightly, but not significantly, worse than Cobb's career so far. You also missed one critical factor with Cobb - he's only started more than 30 games in a season once, and that was back in 2012. Garza started at least 30 games in a season six times through age 29. Garza through age 29 looks a lot like Cobb through age 29, but was much more durable. I don't like comparing Garza to Cobb as they are completely different pitchers. Garza compares better to Lynn, as both heavily rely on FB for success...and once the FB went for Garza he was toast. I see a similar pattern for Lynn. Cobb ideally is a changeup specialist, and hopefully he can get that pitch back as he notably struggled with it last year. He's another year removed from TJ and I suspect the changeup will be back. Changeup pitchers age much better than fastball pitchers.

Another non-Boras top 50 signed today. He's starting to look like a chump.

Can get $1.5/year in incentives, also 2020 club option.

The only thing that's hogwash is suggesting that a lineup with that many players 26 or under has somehow plateau'ed. It's ridiculous. Way to ignore Heyward, too. And the growing pains for Schwarber are a pretty big deal considering he's got Prince Fielder like hitting pedigree. To luke's point, I would argue that Russell/Baez/Schwarber/Rizzo/Almora could improve on their 2017 numbers for one reason or another. Looking at their batted ball ratios, prospect pedigree, offseason adjustments, etc. Cubs fans could make the same kinds of arguments for those guys as we make for Arcia/Santana/Thames/Villar/Braun. My guess is they are due for a slight regression offensively, and maybe this will be the year they can't get through the season with 4-5 guys starting 30+ games. Cubs fans definitely don't factor in that they've been extremely lucky with SP health. Their current rotation has 3 guys that have had significant health issues and one guy turning 34, Quintana is probably the only guy they can 99% count on to start 30+ games this year.

It would be easier for me to buy that teams are colluding to screw over Boras than free agents as a whole. That guy is just dreadful for baseball. All these good players sitting out, I 100% blame him. Him holding out like he is is causing other players not to be signed. I bet the Jon Jay' s and Carlos Gonzalez's of the world would be signed to deals if the rest of the outfield market wasn't holding up the middle class of outfielders.

IMO he's the guy who shouldn't get anything close as to what the expectation was entering the off-season. 38 home runs last year but only averaged 16 home runs per season from 2012-2015 (skipped 2016 because he only played in 27 games). Has the reputation of a great third baseman but over the course of his career is only a +7 DRS (so about +1 DRS per season) and +4.5 UZR/150...and was actually on the negative side in both during 2017. He's averaged 120 games played over the last five years. Granted, that number is skewed because he only played 27 games in 2017, but even completely throwing out that season, he's playing in 142 games and missing 20 games per season. And by far the biggest problem, he just makes too many outs. Has played in parts of 7 seasons and only one time has been above .314 OBP. Lifetime .305 OBP performer. When I look at him and think what he does great....he hits home runs....well at least he did in 2017. Outside of that there isn't really all that much to get excited about. It might be that teams are scoffing at his asking price, but the fact that no teams are really showing interest is what surprises me. The Royals, Yankees, and Mets are the only teams I've heard of connected to him. He still probably should get 3/36 with an opt out as he's an above average defender at 3rd and that won't change in 3 years. He's also only 29 so has some prime left. 3 year deal only takes him through age 31. As far as hitting stats, I would focus more on his last 3 seasons. Which comes out to something like 275/325/495. Very solid production for a 3b. He's been about a 2-3 WAR player the last few years as well and royals park is fairly pitcher friendly. I feel like he might hit 45-50 dingers as a yankee.

He's only going to get as much as he can leverage from a team. He's clearly not the pitcher Darvish is, so asking for more than $21 million per year is a silly ask. I could see him landing anywhere between $13 and 18 million AAV on 3-5 years. 4/60 is about the midpoint, seems reasonable.

The problem is too many Boras clients. I especially think Martinez and Arrieta could hold out into the season. Hosmer's offers are good to the point that he'll probably sign. I fully expect Lynn/Cobb to sign in the next week or so. As much as I'm generally on the team side of things, I find it a bit irritating that teams are using time as leverage. Wait until the season is closer and for players to potentially panic, it's a really dirty tactic in my opinion. I get the players are millionaires in most cases but it's still their livelihood.