KeithStone53151

Once we get deep into the season(playoffs included), I tend to bet against what the crowd is thinking on given games. New England is the exception, they are generally a surefire bet to cover. With a week off and Tennessee dinged up, I don't think they could set that line high enough for me to not want to bet it. I also especially like Philly in this game. Atlanta's biggest margin of victory outside a dome was 6 points, and that was week 1 against the Bears. They won plenty of outdoor games, but Philly is a better team than most prior competition. I'm thinking they have a good chance to lose, and if they win it will probably be by 3 or less points. Far more chances to win than lose. Those 4 lines, I'd go New England, Philly, Pittsburgh, New Orleans. Picking Pittsburgh goes against my "don't take the obvious pick" rule, but how in the world can you bet on Bortles on the road in cold weather in the playoffs? That game feels like 23-3. I also agree with stoutdude, the under on the points spread for whatever the line ends up being on the Minnesota game is probably a good bet. Given I expect low scoring, I think it's wise to take the points. Also to take the better QB/Coach combo.

Thanks for posting. I find the insights a bit unusual, why would he specifically point out how our 4 RH hitting outfielders could line up against a left handed pitcher? That's the easy part, the more difficult part is...we have 4 RH hitting outfielders in this scenario and there are far more RH than LH pitchers. Maybe the Brewers are ok with an all RH outfield with LH 1b, 3b, and 2b position(Sogard LH, Walker/Villar are switch that hit better LH). I honestly thought Phillips would be the least likely to move aside from Braun, even less likely than Brinson. We are almost exactly 1 month from pitchers and catchers reporting, the longer this goes...the more likely for a flurry of activity in a very short time span. Waiting is boring...

You are about half correct. Signing Arrieta is absolutely the opposite of acquiring young controllable talent. But it's been refuted in other threads that much of the team is a regression candidate. Far more players likely to improve in 2018 than regress.

I disagree with this. A singular prospect shouldn't be the exclusive reason to not sign a FA, but it can certainly be a significant and even primary factor in these decisions. In the Walker case, we have decent options currently and multiple very good options coming through the system that will be blocked if he signs a 3+ year deal. Since we have the multiple very good options on a similar trajectory, the chances of having a good one at the MLB level in the expected timeframe increases significantly. Every free agent contract comes with inherent risk in general...just like prospects, but at high dollars that could be used elsewhere. There are factors like rule 5 to consider. And it isn't exactly easy to have a good player step aside for a prospect, managers are notorious for wanting to stick with their veteran players. So in the Walker case, the factors in play for not signing him to a 3+ year deal include opportunity cost, increased risk in player decline, AND blocking 2 high end prospects for potential 1.5 years. It's hard to know how much weight to apply to these factors, but all are significant. I see your point, and often your point will hold true. But to say "never ever ever ever" I disagree with, as there are plenty of cases where it makes sense to not sign a guy to a reasonable deal. You can also look at the Cain situation, Phillips and Brinson are by no means established major leaguers and have options. Signing Cain blocks both those guys and quite a few other outfielders coming through the system. It's that many good prospects situation again...and in the case of Cain, the prospects are probably the primary factor for not bringing him in.

Regarding this final contract, he was initially asking 5/80 according to reports...so he settled for less than half that. And his ask wasn't all that unreasonable, especially considering the excessive asking prices being reported for other FA. I wonder if he would have done better, worse, or about the same if he put forth a reasonable asking price from the beginning. I personally think these absurd asking prices wind up giving the GM's leverage and hurt the player when the asking prices inevitably start to come down as the offseason starts coming to a close.

For every Scherzer, Lester, Ryan, Verlander, etc...that live up to their contract for at least the first handful of years...there are at least 3 Jordan Zimmerman or Anibal Sanchez or Matt Garza or Jeff Suppan or James Shields, guys that are awful after a year or two. That doesn't include guys that do ok, but don't quite provide the value their contract dictates. Very rarely in free agency are you going to hit a home run on a 4+ year deal and get positive value on a contract.

I think it's fair to say that just about everyone on this board would be happy to bring in Walker on a 2/22 type deal, myself included. A 2 year deal likely doesn't overlap Diaz/Hiura, and Dubon is more of a replacement for Perez than a 1st division regular at 2b. It's possible a 2 year deal overlaps the readiness of Hiura/Diaz by half a year or so, which isn't significant and can be managed by a variety of options. The group of people willing to sign him to a 3 or 4 year deal is significantly less, and as of now that's rumored to be his asking price.

Clearly Jungmann wasn't part of the plans, and this is probably something he wanted/asked for. Can't blame either party.

I would tend to agree with you to some degree. Villar being on the roster currently does not mean he'll be on the roster at the start of ST. We also could go to camp with the plan for Perez/Sogard to compete for at bats in a platoon role there if Villar was traded and nobody else brought in. I think it's far more likely though that Villar remains on the roster to compete in ST for the starting gig, or we bring in Walker and then trade Villar for whatever we can get. I suspect Villar competing for the starting gig is the route we take. In a playoff race in late August through September, giving a guy at bats to help fix mechanical issue and get back on track is not a real option. Whoever is putting up the best results at that given time should be starting, period. It's a far different dynamic after Villar has had an offseason to work on things and will have a full ST to earn the job.

Nice find. I wouldn't be surprised if Arrieta doesn't sign until late February and after Cobb/Lynn/Darvish all sign. I'm expecting a front loaded 5/110 type deal, or 4/96ish with a 5th year vesting option. And I really hope it isn't the Brewers.

Well, I'd certainly trade a big chunk of our 7, if not all of them, for a World Series title. I couldn't agree more. Without that certainty though, I'd rather have a consistently successful team that's in the mix for playoffs every year...and hope certain years things break right. That in my opinion is the best way to win a world series, we tried the all-in approach last time we had a good farm and it didn't work out. Meanwhile the steady Cardinals hung around every year and managed 2 titles and a ton of success...primarily building through the farm with a few smart free agency decisions mixed in. I'd definitely take 7 top 100 to 2 top 20. Having those blue chip guys is nice, but the Brewers need lots of solid guys coming through consistently...not a new star player every so often.

I don't think Drake even makes it to spring training. Drake's chances of making the opening day 25 for the Brewers are up there with Tim Tebows.

I'm in general agreement with the consensus. We have a solid floor type in Sogard that can play 2b everyday and be decent if Villar is awful. We have the upside in Villar if he can return to 2016 form. There's no sense in looking to make a move at 2b unless the player can approach Villar's upside. Walker can, Castro not so much.

I wonder how high they'd have to count to get to the first Cubs player. 150? 200? 250?

I think your first 5 are locks, then there are a few others that could potentially sneak into the last handful of spots. If I had to pick an exact number of top 100, I'd go with 6.

Aguilar isn't a world beater, but I thought my Rogers comp was fairly reasonable. Aguilar is far more established as a solid hitter than Rogers was.

Why in the world would the Indians trade for Aguilar, a guy they dumped less than a year ago? Less than a year ago they had an everyday 1B. Now they have a LHB platoon bat there. Plus Aguilar established MLB ability last year That might have been more reasonable before they got Encarnacion, but he can easily fill in at 1b. I didn't realize until I just looked now, but holy mackeral is this team left handed. They project most days to start 5 LH, 2 switch, 2 RH. Sure Guyer will see the field a decent amount against lefties and both switch hitters are better RH than LH, but this is a team built to get seriously exposed against LH pitching.

If we don't bring in Walker, I think it's fair to at minimum give Villar a chance in open competition in ST to win the 2b job. Him/Sogard/Perez(if he's on the roster). And I agree with the poster on Braun, having him play some 1b would be beneficial for many reasons. Heck Aguilar probably has some trade value and might net us a Jason Rogers type return depending how the market shakes out if we moved him.

Probably not enough. Mejia was a top 30 or top 40 prospect going into last year and he had a nice year. I'd guess he's a top 15 or top 20 prospect this year. So, maybe Brinson or Burnes or a combo like Ortiz and _____. Salazar is almost fair straight up for Santana, maybe a slight edge to Santana given an extra year of control and Salazar having some issues last year, but then again, pitching is always valued a bit more. So now you're taking a somewhat fair swap and adding one of the best prospect in baseball in return for a grab bag of a decent prospect or guy like Broxton. I think the drop from Santana to Salazar is more sizeable than you think due to injury issues. Santana had injury issues in 2016, aside from that he's been mostly healthy. Salazar is a pitcher that has had issues on pretty much every square inch of his arm. I don't know that the Indians would want 2 outfielders to be added to the MLB roster. Maybe Santana + Ray + either a low level flier or a high floor depth arm. Ponce/Henry/Wilkerson/Stokes...someone in that caliber give or take. Ray isn't top 100 anymore, but he has the tools to bounce back into the spotlight similar to Harrison this year if he can sort out his swing mechanics. A healthy offseason the doesn't include knee surgery should help.

You are missing that the Brewers have carried a 4 man bench the past couple years. It might be easier to go with a 5 man bench and 7 man bullpen if we add a solid starter to the rotation, but if we don't and roll with one of Suter/Wilkerson/Hader...then we had better have 8 in that bullpen. It gets a bit more tricky with a 4 man bench, and would basically force us to trade an additional established player while we already are going to have to trade a minimum of 2.

If Walker signs a 2 year $22 million deal as I suggested, I have zero issue with dealing Villar as a piece in a deal for a SP or cutting Sogard or Perez as I view them as 25th man type guys. Cutting Sogard or Perez significantly impacts our flexibility, which is critical when carrying 12 position players and 2 guys that are 1b only(aguilar can play 3b in an emergency, Thames is like Matt Holliday in LF). Signing Walker probably means trading Villar and also probably means we have to keep Perez over Aguilar. If we didn't make the move, Perez could be the one to go and Villar could be the emergency 3rd CF option. If Villar goes, I think it's important to keep Perez for that job...which weakens our bench not having Aguilar. And trading Villar now probably would be throwing away significant value. He's almost certainly something between the 2016 and 2017 versions. Even being roughly at the midpoint is a valuable player. It's a tough call really. Walker is more stable/certain, and his hitting style complements our roster better. Villar has the better upside, and is much cheaper, and keeping him likely means we can also keep aguilar.

This is part of why I suggested targeting Salazar + Mejia and sending Santana+. We are incredibly deep in those mid-tier prospects...not blue chippers but significantly more valuable than the "meh" group. Santana + Gatewood + Henry for Salazar + Mejia? Something like that, maybe it takes more I have a tough time gauging Mejia's value.

One thing to keep in mind with Walker. We don't have unlimited 25 man space. 2 catchers, 4 OF, Thames, Shaw, Arcia, Sogard, Villar are all locks for the roster(barring an unlikely villar trade). That leaves one spot for Perez and Aguilar to battle for, so we are already going to lose one of them. Bringing in Walker pretty much forces us to trade Villar or cut/trade Sogard. Unless we manage to make do with a 7 man bullpen, we are going to have a significant positional player crunch this year.

Webb has very good numbers in AAA as well as two option years remaining, there are a lot of players who should be moved off the 40-man before he is. He's someone who would 100% be claimed on waivers, as a team need not have a 25-man spot for him, only an opening on the 40-man roster. Bandy, having no options, is by far the most likely catcher to be traded or DFAd. Wang and Drake should be among the prime candidates on the pitching side. Jungmann and Lopez shouldn't feel too safe either. Drake, Jungmann, Guerra, Lopez, Wang, Webb, a catcher or two, one or Perez/Aguilar, and at least one outfielder have a decent shot of being removed from the 40 man. Guerra/Jungmann are out of options, drake may be as well. One of Perez/Aguilar won't fit on the 25 man. We have 5 catchers, at most we'd keep 4 but as noted above probably 3. We have 5 outfielders and 4 spots on the 25 man. The rest of the pitchers, lopez/wang/webb...have options which should help keep them on the 40.

It wouldn't fly for Cleveland. IF Salazar is getting dealt, then Julian goes no where. Here is why: The starting depth (beyond the guys in Cleveland) is thin at the start of the year. Julian would likely be 1st arm called up if an injury in the rotation during the 1st half of the season. Ryan Merritt (the normal call the past 2 years) is now out of options. He is most likely bullpen bound (if not moved in a trade). Mike Clevinger (the other call up guy) is likely taking the rotation spot of Salazar. It is the past success of/ presence of Clevinger that is enabling the Indians to consider moving Salazar. Cody Anderson had TJ surgery in March 17 so he might be available for a call come the mid-point of the season. Other arms might also be ready come mid-season. Greg Allen is most likely starting the year in AAA Columbus. He completely jumped that level last season as rosters expanded. He needs a little finishing off especially since he missed 2 months last season in AA due to injury. You bring up a good point about questioning room form DSantana in the current OF. Unless a guy like Chisenhall is moved this off-season, there isn't room until 2019. So Domingo might not be the package target. As someone noted earlier, the bullpen is thin so the Indians might be after bullpen arms or players to help starting in 2019 (an effort to reload, not rebuild).. For starters with Santana, he's a better hitter than all 3 of Cleveland's current outfielders. Also, a reminder that Cleveland will have an all LH hitting outfield that consists of a rookie that struggled last year and 2 guys with injury history, one with significant injury history. Having 4 good guys means one can get hurt and they won't skip a beat. If by some miracle all stay healthy all season, they all could play 120 games and potentially PH late in games. I know PH isn't as common in AL, but it still happens especially in platoon situations. Maybe Cleveland isn't interested in Santana, but dismissing it with the "well they have 3 decent outfielders, so they probably won't have interest in Santana" is a bit silly. If Cleveland has a depth issue at starting pitcher, could they be interested in a Wilkerson or Guerra as part of a deal? I could especially see Wilkerson as he has options. Obviously that isn't a ton of value, but it would likely be a good way to get some additional value in a deal. Also would clear a 40 man spot. Wilkerson might be of value regardless of whether we want Julian included in a deal.