KeithStone53151

I certainly wouldn't bet on it, but the marlins have good hitters. There's definitely a chance, especially in colorado. Chip away boys, or put up a double digit inning...either way

Marlins are surely using their crappy relievers, those guys against Gray. Though they are starting to get to him and the pitch count is getting up there. 70 pitches through 4. I feel like the Rockies have terrible middle relief, getting to them could be a game changer.

I'm starting to feel like the Dodgers need to sweep them. I doubt we win all 5 of our remaining games. The Dodgers getting 2 of 3 might not be enough.

I'm very torn on the Walker/Villar debate. On one hand, I'd like to see Villar head into the offseason, work his tail off, and get back to 2016 form. I'm sure everyone on this board would be happy to have 2016 villar back. On the other, a player like walker is incredibly valuable to this team and the price might be right. It may end up moot if Walker commands big bucks in FA. I'll be curious the route we go.

The beauty of this off season will be the options available. Considering how many different directions he could go, I actually suspect Stearns will make some decisions that some of us will strongly disagree with. But Stearns has done wonders with this roster in 2 years, have faith and hope for the best.

We were in first place at the time. How much more competitive do we need to be? Which 2 exactly? The one who is currently in AA? The one who has yet to make a major league start? Or the one who has all of seven major league starts under his wing and who is starting to come back to Earth after an incredibly hot start? I mean come on. This is ridiculous. Considering Gray would currently be the best starting pitcher on the staff I don't think he'd be blocking anyone. Burnes won't be ready to begin next year anyway. And who knows how well Hader can be as a starter. I'll take the sure thing over the question marks any day of the week. Beside, if Burnes or Hader forces their way into the rotation (I leave a Woodruff out because I assume he's already in) then they'll find a spot for them. and the guy they replace will be a lot less talented than Sonny Gray. Take a look at the Nationals roster, the Dodgers roster, the Indians roster, the Red Sox roster, the Astros roster...and then the Brewers roster. We have the talent to compete, but this talent isn't quite at a point of maximizing results in a way that can compete with those teams. I'd rather use the chips to put us over the edge to serious contention versus hoping it's enough to edge out a wildcard berth. Gray at one point was a guy in AA, a guy who hadn't yet made a major league start, and a guy that had only made 7 major league starts. The proven guy will not always be more effective than the young guy with potential. And honestly just watch them pitch, they are young and very talented. It's not like I'm trying to say some A baller has more value than Gray because of his potential. These are guys at or on the fringes of the MLB level. All things equal, the sure thing is better than the question mark. But the question mark in this case is 3 potential question marks that frankly aren't all that questionable, and team control/salary factors in. If these guys work out how most of us hope, those chips can be used to trade for Chapman or Miller(or pick your impact reliever) next year. The salary space can be used on Walker or another bullpen piece. A lot of people, myself included(and clearly Stearns considering we didn't make the move), thought this wasn't the right move for the price.

I actually just read something on this, did they change it and the all star game doesn't decide home field advantage for NL/AL world series anymore? I read that their magic number is 3 to clinch home field advantage for the world series, if it changed...when did that happen?

They actually just locked that up yesterday, unfortunately. But it's nice that both Kershaw and Ryu have something to pitch for...you know Kershaw wants to pad his counting stats for cy young reasons. I imagine he has some sort of incentive in his contract for winning the cy young.

If anyone needs some optimism about this wildcard race, Ryu and Kershaw were announced as starting the first 2 games of the Rockies series. Game 3 still TBA. Ryu is in a battle with Alex Wood to pitch in the NLDS rotation, Kershaw/Darvish/Hill are top 3 obviously. I feel so much better about the Dodgers chances of winning those games...at least the first 2.

There is a time and place for acquiring name talent to put you over the edge. Gray might have put us over the edge to a wildcard berth, maybe. We also likely don't get nearly the same look as we have at Woodruff, who has put up fairly similar numbers to Gray since the trade BTW. We are much better off as a franchise holding our chips for the most part and waiting until the core is more ready to compete. In addition, it's absolutely possible that all of Burnes/Woodruff/Hader end up being more valuable rotation pieces than Gray in the near future. 2 of those 3 are already looking better than Gray, and I'm sure we'll get a look at Burnes next year. Putting Gray into a spot blocks at least one of those guys from a look at the MLB level.

Hader with the punch out on the change up.... just sayin

I agree with the quick hook. This offense scores like crazy, can't afford to let them get rolling

I think Phillips hustle earned both those runs. Adding that pressure did enough to get in his head. Love it

Why do we need the Rockies to flame out? They go 2-3 and the Brewers go 4-2 and we have a one game playoff. Is it likely? Not really. But it's certainly realistic for the Brewers to win 2 series and have the Rockies split the remaining two with Miami and go 1-2 vs LAD I've been saying since mid-August that I think we need 88 wins to make it into the post season. 88 wins would be 6-0, and that very likely gets us in. Anything short of that could be trouble. I think we should be focused on one day at a time, that's all we can do. Today we have a great chance to win with the pitching matchup, and the Rockies face the Marlins best pitcher. The marlins have also won 5 of their last 7 games. Very real chance to pick up another game tonight.

I was wildly bored at work today and dug into this guy a bit. He spent a lot of time in the minors. He has faced Pina, Arcia, Broxton, and Santana...and all 4 have done decent against him. Arcia is the only one that took him deep. At least a couple of our guys have seen him and he won't be wildly unknown.

Rockies beat the Brewers 4-3 in the season series, that's why they would host a playoff game for WC2. https://www.purplerow.com/2017/9/22/16351800/mlb-postseason-tiebreaker-wild-card-nl

I don't think they have enough guys up from AAA to get away with that. I suspect these teams that are clinching will still play their regular guys for the most part, but will be sure to give them a rest day or two and might pull them early in games.

I did the same exercise at work today. Worth noting a potential 1 game playoff with Colorado would be in Colorado on 10/2, Woodruff would be lined up for that one on normal rest and also lined up for game 2 on normal rest(if we get that far). I think you are spot on for the most part, though if by some miracle we clinch the wildcard before 10/1 it's probable Davies doesn't pitch that game and potentially pitches a wildcard game with the D Backs(leaving Chase to be the guy going on short rest in the NLDS...he's shown he can be effective on short rest)

Agreed that is is the most sweepable, however I just get this bad feeling they are going to get tripped up in at least one of them. Hope I'm wrong. We've certainly struggled with this team, that's the most nerve-wracking part to me. I like the pitching matchups though, here's hoping...

You make it seem so easy. You just have to acquire a whole bunch of talented minor leaguers and then that will always automatically turn into a successful winning franchise. The problem is that's what we did in the late 2000s. We had two possible future Hall of Famers in the middle of our lineup plus three or four very good secondary pieces for a number of years. What did we win? One wild card birth and one division title three years later. And why did we even win that? Becuase we traded minor leaguers for big name talent. Without CC we don't make the playoffs in 08. Without Greinke and maybe even Marcum we don't make the playoffs in 11. I understand your love for prospects and I agree that a franchise like Milwaukee has to build from within. But there is absolutely a place for big name talent. Prospects fail like.....all the time. We cannot solely rely on our prospects and expect to win year in and year out. Gray was there for the having and we balked. It's understandable but now because of a series of unfortunate events not only are we unlikely to make the playoffs this season but we have a big hole to fill in our 2018 rotation. Very good points. At best most prospects turn out to be solid major league contributors. That's great but won't win championships. If you are lucky, as the Brewers were a decade ago, you get a couple difference makers like Braun and Fielder. If the Brewers fall a game or two short this year, it's a fair assessment that their timidity cost a rare playoff appearance. Granted getting bounced after wild card game is barely worth mentioning, but winning that one game puts you on equal footing with the division winners. If the core of the team is better next year(it should be expected to be with all our youth), and next deadline offers better opportunities to use our chips to build a roster that can truly contend...you'll probably be very happy you aren't GM and Stearns held his chips until a better opportunity presented itself.

You make it seem so easy. You just have to acquire a whole bunch of talented minor leaguers and then that will always automatically turn into a successful winning franchise. The problem is that's what we did in the late 2000s. We had two possible future Hall of Famers in the middle of our lineup plus three or four very good secondary pieces for a number of years. What did we win? One wild card birth and one division title three years later. And why did we even win that? Becuase we traded minor leaguers for big name talent. Without CC we don't make the playoffs in 08. Without Greinke and maybe even Marcum we don't make the playoffs in 11. I understand your love for prospects and I agree that a franchise like Milwaukee has to build from within. But there is absolutely a place for big name talent. Prospects fail like.....all the time. We cannot solely rely on our prospects and expect to win year in and year out. Gray was there for the having and we balked. It's understandable but now because of a series of unfortunate events not only are we unlikely to make the playoffs this season but we have a big hole to fill in our 2018 rotation. I was moreso referring to casual fans and not BF posters, to be clear. And it absolutely isn't easy, but this franchise currently has more and better assets than the 2008 team did. Sure we don't have any superstar young position players like a braun or fielder, but we are in so much better shape on the pitching side that it more than makes up for it. And we have young talent all the way down our system. The Gray type moves are for those that subscribe to the window theory. I would much rather try to build like the cardinals model than try a window theory like Melvin in the late 2000's and Theo does consistently. The Cardinals are competitive every year, and have gotten hot at the right time to win it all more than once. I can't remember them ever shelling out a ton of big time prospects at the deadline either. They primarily build from within and trust their guys. Over the last couple years they've moved away from that a bit to be honest(Peralta, Fowler, Holliday signings), but their model is what I'm hoping Stearns can achieve.

I agree, but I also don't think they have guys sit all 3 days. Key guys might play 2 of 3, Turner and other guys that have been nicked up might get more rest...but even still their bench is pretty darn good. They can win games with 1 or 2 key hitters sitting, especially if guys like kershaw and co are pitching.

I think Hader will spend most of next year in the pen, but you have to try him out in the rotation. Right now, the Brewers don't have the SP to not give Hader a legit look for the rotation. And if Hader is in the bullpen full time, I feel like he would be much more valuable in his role right now than in the closer's role. Put him in during hi-leverage situations, for 1 batter, for 6 batters, or whatever the game situation asks for. That has more value than strictly the 9th inning. I don't understand why so many are unwilling to give Hader a look in the rotation. Sure he's been a phenomenal reliever, but he would have so much more value if he remained effective as a starter. He's been so much better with his off speed and control over the last month or so, those argument against him in the rotation are growing less and less valid. If it doesn't work out for whatever reason, the bullpen is the fallback option.

I'm very curious what they decide to do as far as rest goes. Do you really want a starter sitting on his can for 10-12 straight days? Might they go out and only throw like 60-80 pitches? Or play it like a normal game?

Anyone questioning Hader's secondary stuff must not have actually seen him throw it. He gets swings and misses with both pitches often, especially his slider. I'll be fairly upset if he doesn't end up in the rotation to start 2018 unless Stearns goes rogue and adds 2 high end SP in the off season. Anyone NOT questioning headers secondary stuff must not have actually seen him throw it- which is easy to miss since he threw his fastball over 80% of the time. His fangraphs pitch value: -FB-9.9 -SL-3.3 -CH-(-1.4) He was a 1 pitch pitcher this year. Not saying he can't start (since I had him starting in the rotation in 2018) but I would be surprise if he ends up in the bullpen Have YOU actually watched the guy pitched and watched him throw secondary stuff, or are you doing a classic "grab one advanced metric from fangraphs which tells a small sliver of the story and ignore everything else"? I'm going to lead off with the fact that he's actually been throwing his offspeed more lately than when he initially came up. I checked his changeup rate back in mid-august and posted it in a different thread, he had thrown it to that point 5% of the time. Now fangraphs has that rate up to 6.4%, which suggests since then he's thrown it 7-8% of the time minimum...probably more. I unfortunately did not see if or how much his slider rate changed but currently it's at 11.5%. Hader throws his fastball most often, especially early on, because nobody can hit it. Why fix what isn't broken? The fastball is a double plus pitch because of the delivery and deception going along with the 95-97 mph heat. He largely sticks with the fastball obviously(as many relievers do), but his secondary stuff is very good and both pitches get swings and misses. If you watch him pitch, you'll see how effective it is. The changeup I'm sure he wants to become more consistent, but it's good enough as is to be an effective starter when coupled with his other 2 pitches. If he doesn't make it as a starter, I think it would have more to do with stamina issues than anything. I watch him pitch and hit his spots, he doesn't seem like a guy that has issues with commanding his pitches...at least not lately.