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KeithStone53151

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Everything posted by KeithStone53151

  1. KeithStone53151
    Vikings rb's will likely be Boone and Abdullah on Monday. I don't buy either of the top 2 guys suiting up. My fantasy season relies on this, I own the top 2 and Boone...so I've been watching this like a hawk. Abdullah has a bit of burst, but Boone seemed like the type that gets what's blocked and not much more. Having Boone back there versus the top 2 is game-changing. Also no Thielen. I also think the Vikings beat back our offense quite a bit as well. This seems like a very low scoring game, I wouldn't want to bet on the Packers outright...but I like them +6 quite a bit as well.
  2. KeithStone53151
    I get the impression based on the last couple years, the Brewers seem to think they are capable of helping players improve their infield defense. Think about all the players they've asked to move up the defensive spectrum. Shaw/Moose to 2b, Brad Miller/Cory Spang/Urias/Schoop to SS, helping Hiura at 2b, Ryon Healy probably 3b. I'm probably only grabbing a fraction of players...but Davis is probably a fringy bat for 1b/LF, but if he could play 3b his bat makes him an all-star. Also with so many teams obsessed with launch angle, GB rate is down considerably...making IF defense proportionally less important.
  3. KeithStone53151
    Thoughts on trading Peralta for JD Davis straight up? I wonder if the Mets would take a chance on his arm.
  4. KeithStone53151
    ...and then he signs Keon Broxton. Broxton is going to compete for the 7th OF role. He might not even start everyday in AAA. Broxton is completely negligible in this case. His primary value will probably be in being the 28th man in September and defense/PH opportunities late in games. The odds of him touching a bat in an MLB game more than 5 times this year for the Brewers is very very low. I would gladly bet the under if able.
  5. KeithStone53151
    One note on Smoak. I knew he was slow, but didn't realize just how slow. He's directly between Grandal and Molina on sprint speed on statcast. I thought to check this because he's had 11, 11, and 17 GIDP over the last 3 years...we should anticipate him ranking near the top in baseball in GIDP/PA.
  6. KeithStone53151
    Point taken but I will add that Miley is a lefty for the Reds. Also add the Cubs are still pretty loaded with LHP, and despite their payroll issues still have a lot of untapped potential on their MLB roster.
  7. KeithStone53151
    I agree with this. Stearns made other moves previous years to cut loose high k players, at this point he has very few holdovers from before his tenure and the roster is mostly his guys. Smoak certainly isn't a low k guy, but his roughly 22% over the last 3 years is lower than Thames 31%. Probably not Stearns ideal guy, but a move in the right direction.
  8. KeithStone53151
    The reason I like this deal. I see a lot of potential improvement in his stat line from 2019. He was wildly unlucky, and I think we platoon him to a degree which limit if RH at bats and should also help improve his stat line. Also the $4m price tag with the option. So lets say we can help Smoak unlock another gear and he has a monster year...well we have a club option we can exercise for a very affordable price. I know this is unlikely, but not impossible...so the club option has value. Smoak had a .223 BABIP last year...if all else is equal and that unlucky .223 becomes a very lucky .330, that probably makes Smoak a 900 OPS guy real quick. Definitely true he's not as good as the other 1b in the division, but he should be marginally less productive...and based on the contract we should theoretically be able to use saved payroll $ to improve elsewhere.
  9. KeithStone53151
    It was reported that he would get rid of that player option if traded to a contender. Seriously? It's one thing to waive a no trade clause to go to a contender, but quite another to waive I think $15m...
  10. KeithStone53151
    One note on Seager, when traded the option becomes a player option. He'll be owed 3/52. That's a lot of money for a very mediocre player. I frankly don't really want the Brewers involved in that. I don't think Donaldson is realistic but maybe Cabrera for 3b? It's a bit shocking how thin the FA market becomes beyond Cabrera. Guys like Frazier, Franco, Castro, Gyorko...a whole bunch of yuck that probably should be getting minor league deals.
  11. KeithStone53151
    One thing I read on Seager, his 2022 option becomes a player option if trades. So we're trading for 3/52 on Seager. I doubt we can work out financial terms with the Mariners to make that work.
  12. KeithStone53151
    This seems fair. I'd argue he might inch closer to 2 WAR in Miller Park...but it's pretty close. I would expect Smoak to be platooned quite often. Of Smoak/Garcia/Braun...I would expect Smoak to get the least amount of PT of the 3 barring injury. The back of napkin math is probably something like 92/115/115 between the 2 spots. There might be maybe 20-30 more starts to go around for the 3 of them between Cain/Yelich offdays...all depending how many Cain gets(I'm expecting Yelich to get something like 5 or 6 all year).
  13. KeithStone53151
    I'm quite confident in saying virtually zero chance we or anybody else signs Castellanos to play 3b. He has a hard enough time fielding the baseball in the OF.
  14. KeithStone53151
    If you think this, you'll probably have a shot to take the under against vegas at between 83 and 86 wins pending what else we do. Should be a slam dunk for you.
  15. KeithStone53151
    I wouldn't get my hopes up on Donaldson. Hard to imagine us outbidding the Nationals or other big market teams needing 3b. I haven't heard once that we are in on him...
  16. KeithStone53151
    Number of chances. If Thames had played 1B nearly as much as Smoak had, the gulf would be much wider. Adding range into the equation makes the difference between the two negligible at best. Smoak now gets to hit in MP though which should boost his already better than Thames numbers. And he costs less. This isn't a big upgrade, but on paper it's definitely not a downgrade, and they saved money. It was a smart move no matter which way the numbers are broken down. I love the move. I was initially under the impression that Smoak was a much better defender, but it looks like Smoak regressed a bit(or maybe his quad injury hindered him last year) and Thames improved to make it more of a push. I think calling it negligible is fair. And I'm expecting Smoak to absolutely rake here. Especially if we try to somewhat platoon him with Braun, I know he's switch but he's a better LH hitter. Every aspect of Smoak's 2019 stats say he was wildly unlucky and should have been in the 850 OPS range with average luck.
  17. KeithStone53151
    I'm glossing over the defensive stats of both Thames and Smoak, I'm not sure it's fair to say Smoak is a better defender than Thames. Looks like Thames has a pretty significant range advantage, while Smoak is a bit more consistent and less error-prone. Also Thames overall numbers have been trending up the last few years, while Smoak's have been trending down.
  18. KeithStone53151
    $25m less payroll, 0 change in WAR, much more upside with younger players
  19. KeithStone53151
    I love this move. I've liked Smoak for a while. I think he would do well with a change of scenery, well in Miller Park, and hopefully he's been generally unlucky his entire career. With us being ahead of the curve on analytics, I wonder if we can unlock anything with Smoak.
  20. KeithStone53151
    I have us at $103m spent. Anybody's guess how much is "available". Based on last year, another $25m or so. But no guarantee they open with a payroll as big as last year. Lineup will be something like Cain - CF Yelich - RF Hiura - 2b Smoak - 1b Garcia/Braun - LF Narvaez - C Urias - 3b Arcia - SS Braun will play some 1b as well. If we sign a 3b or Healy wins a job, Urias probably moves to SS. Sogard is available to fill in at 3b/2b/ss.
  21. KeithStone53151
    I think the opposite seems to be true around here. Everyone seems to say "let's see... how can I find a way to convince myself that this is a really, brilliant move?" See Anderson, Brett. I've liked a majority of the offseason, but despise that move. I think it's closer to 50/50 on that one with people liking and disliking the move. I find it especially weird that people are so against this Sogard move. Especially after last year, when Shaw inexplicably was awful and we had really bad depth options there(until Hiura was ready). If Hiura or Urias are really bad for whatever reason, can easily plug in Sogard and not lose as much as putting in someone like Perez or Brad Miller.
  22. KeithStone53151
    I think as a stand-alone...this is a good move. It's a 1 year, low dollar move for a substantial depth piece at middle infield. Sogard is probably a 2nd division starter, but fits well as backup/PH on a contending team.
  23. KeithStone53151
    One thing I'll add. Let's just say we go to camp with Hiura, Sogard, Arcia, Urias, Healy...not the greatest on paper for sure. You let those 5 guys into an open competition for playing time...it will certainly bring the best out of each one of them.
  24. KeithStone53151
    We can't keep Thames as a LH 1B option as he's too expensive so we blow a wad on Sogard. Seriously? My god what an overpay... It's a touch more than I expected(I figured $2-3m as well, but all contracts have been higher than expected this year), but Sogard plays 2b/ss while Thames plays 1b and can take up space in RF...and Sogard put up a slightly lower OPS, with Thames heavily platooned.
  25. KeithStone53151
    Even the Yankees will make fringy moves to improve their roster around the edges. Feel free to be disappointed about certain things...like not improving the SP enough. But this is a quality move.
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