I would bet that any Tiger fan who posted on a message board on September 10 that the division race wasn't over yet would have been greeted with comments to the effect that they don't understand math and probability. They would also have been told how difficult it would be for a team to make up 9 games with 16 to play, even with 6 head to head games against the team they are chasing.. After all, all the Tigers would have to do is play .500 the rest of the way and it would be impossible for the Guardians to catch them.
The Tiger fan might have responded by pointing out the improbable charge that the Tigers made to overtake the Twins for a wild card spot last season as a reminder of how quickly things can change.
Of course, since September 10, the Guardians have gone 10-1, including the 3 game sweep over the Tigers, and the Tigers have gone 1-6 in the games against teams other than the Guardians.
Some times "just playing .500" doesn't happen, even for teams that are 22 games over .500 and have the best record in their league.
And some times teams that are barely over .500 suddenly put together winning streaks that would be considered nearly impossible by someone looking at projections and probabilities.. Like the 2021 Cardinals who won 17 in a row as part of a 19-3 finish that lifted them to a wild card berth.