BrewBalls

Again, he projects about as good offensively as Moose. Was he a bottom of the barrel player in your mind too? Difference being that Moose plays third base where offense is harder to find vs Garcia who plays a corner outfield spot where his numbers are a dime a dozen. Meanwhile we have no answers whatsoever at third base with a load of garbage options in free agency besides Donaldson who we rightfully aren’t paying 25 million per season for 4 years. So you would’ve preferred we overspend for a slightly above average player because he makes up for his lack in production by being a good teammate and charismatic personality? I honestly do not see the needle moving substantially more from resigning Moose and taking a one year flyer on a guy like Asdrubel Cabrera. Especially not enough to shell out an additional 3 years at $10MM per.

Tampa & the Brewers are in a bidding war for him, $500 at a time.... All I picture is both GM’s video chatting with Garcia’s agent and holding up silent bids on a piece of paper until one reaches a set number. Lol

I like the idea and we can never have enough utility IF to compete for a bench spot in ST

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We still need at least 3 starting caliber players which easily eats up $20-35MM depending on who they sign. Not to mention most GM’s hold onto some of their budgeted payroll for midseason trades/signings. For example if they sign Garcia ($8MM) and Todd Frazier ($7MM) and another starter ($6-10MM) they are down to roughly $23MM to spend. This is enough to add a couple players before the trade deadline due to injuries or to fortify our roster for a deep playoff run.

No.....Braun has full no trade protection....he isn’t going anywhere My mistake. I was under the impression it was a partial trade clause.

Does anyone get the feeling Stearns might be looking to trade away Braun for a salary dump option like Seager? It still saves Seattle a couple million this year and Kyle’s entire salary in 2021.

Yes if we are talking about the dump being someone who can contribute in 2020 like Lowrie. I don’t see Seattle or San Fran adding quality prospects to any trade involving Seager or Belt. They would rather pay down some of the remaining salary to make it more palatable to the receiving team in hopes of netting a lower level prospect. This being said, I’m still onboard with a Smith + Lowrie or Seager + $$$ deal since I believe both would not cost much and improve our roster moving forward.

I don't disagree. At the same time I don't want Burnes starting anywhere but AAA to start this year. I want to see him dominating at that level before I plug him back in the starting rotation. For a number of reasons. I think Lindblom Houser and Lauer all get first crack over him in 2020. I can get onboard with this philosophy. This means Stearns needs to add one more reliable starter to fill out the rotation preferably a proven veteran like Keuchel or Gonzalez. This way if Burnes doesn’t bounce back we aren’t caught scrabbling to begin the season like last year when the wheels fell off unexpectedly like they did.

This isn't actually true though. Last year the Nationals won based on clutch hitting late in games, they were out pitched for most of the playoffs and kept coming back late in games. The year before Sale was ineffective and they relied heavily on the bullpen to save them though they at least had one SP with a great series in Price. The year before that the Astros slugged their way to a victory. The Cubs arguably were carried by pitching but the year before that was a Royals rotation that was pretty awful and it was all about the bullpen. Top flight starting pitching has not been what has been winning these World Series lately. It would be great if we developed/traded for a couple really good pitchers but it is completely realistic to win without them as well. That just isn't how the postseason is generally won in baseball these days. The teams with the best pitching haven't really done all that great in the playoffs in recent years. Strasburg 14 IP in World Series & World Series MVP with a 2.51 ERA in WS. 0.00 ERA in NLCS Scherzer 10 IP in World Series and 3.60 ERA in WS. 0.00 ERA in NLCS. 1.13 ERA in NLDS. Those 2 are the primary reason the Nationals won it all. That and Josh Hader, but that’s a different story, isn’t it? ! I understand that in recent years teams like the Red Sox & Royals have won it all relying heavily on relief pitching. Relief pitching year to year is very volatile. The teams in the World Series this year both had 2 legit aces, and I believe that will be the trend in postseason Baseball, with of course occasional exceptions, over the next several seasons... Tell that to the Dodgers who had three legit ace caliber pitchers (Kerahaw, Buehler and Ryu) to go along with a potent offense and solid bullpen. So let’s just all admit you need good pitching and hitting along with some good fortune/luck to win the WS.

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/rangers/2019/12/14/jordan-lyles-helped-make-milwaukee-a-postseason-contender-now-he-hopes-to-do-the-same-in-texas/ Here is an interesting article which talks about how Milwaukee helped Lyles resurrect his career. I’m hoping the Brewers have identified similar adjustments which can help Lindblom, Anderson and Lauer take another step forward with their careers.

Fortunate, or did our front office correctly identify a candidate to outpitch their "pedigree" due to some analytical/mechanical/technical change they were able to implement? Why, when the Brewers have an astoundingly good track record of doing so, do we continue to assume these things are flukey? And why can't a guy like Anderson be a pitcher they've similarly identified as a candidate to be the second coming of Wade Miley due to something they've found as well? When it repeatedly happens over and over, maybe it isn't actually a fluke... I highly doubt that Stearns/front office expected Lyles to pitch like an Ace when they traded for him. At that time the rotation was decimated with injuries and he was just a stopgap trade, no one expected him to pitch the way he did which is why I said it is very fortunate. If the Brewers had thought highly of Lyles, they wouldn't have let him go after the 2018 season. They were not willing to pay a cheap one year $2M+ to get him back for 2019. And the Brewers not re-signing Lyles after last seasons Ace performance, shows that they think it is a fluke performance. 2 years $16M contract ($8M per year) is low even for a #2, but the Brewers were not willing to pay that. Same with Miley, the Brewers did not re-sign him after the 2018 season shows that they think his performance is a fluke. First of all, the Brewers traded for Lyles because most pitchers on the trade block were being overvalued and had extremely high asking prices. Which means Stearns isn’t interested in overpaying for short term success. The Brewers didn’t bring Lyles back after 2018 because they were hoping their young guns would continue progressing and solidify their spots in the rotation and guys like Lyles are always available (i.e. signing Gio and trading for Lyles). Lyles peripherals showed his numbers were significantly aided by luck and that he wasn’t overly dominant in that “ace” span. Furthermore if Stearns assessment of Lyles wasn’t accurate other teams would have jumped at the opportunity to sign a “ace” caliber starter for longer than 2 years and 8MM per. In contrast, Pomeranz actually WAS dominant after the trade and was rewarded for it in free agency. Miley was another pitcher who was lucky in 2018 and part of 2019 before falling off a cliff and being left off Houston’s playoff roster.

I agree having both would be beneficial moving forward. But by doing so it leaves a gaping hole at the back of our bullpen and puts immense pressure on Knebel returning to his old form. We literally will have gone from a three headed monster to a limping one headed one in less than two years. I’d be looking for LA to add more to their offer to pull the trigger on this deal.

Trade Hader + Arcia... somebody like Dustin May from the Dodgers comes to mind as a potential ace in return for Hader.... I get the possibility of trading for a future ace prospect but what has Dustin May shown which would make fans believe he can be our #1-2 starter in 2020 that Burnes hasn’t already shown in 2018?

Oh that’s easy. We were suppose to take all the money Stearns saved from his earlier moves and used it to sign Cole. Then use the remaining money to sign veterans coming off bad seasons to one year “prove it” deals. Duh!!!

Fortunate, or did our front office correctly identify a candidate to outpitch their "pedigree" due to some analytical/mechanical/technical change they were able to implement? Why, when the Brewers have an astoundingly good track record of doing so, do we continue to assume these things are flukey? And why can't a guy like Anderson be a pitcher they've similarly identified as a candidate to be the second coming of Wade Miley due to something they've found as well? When it repeatedly happens over and over, maybe it isn't actually a fluke... Exactly!!! I believe some posters look at each transaction in a vacuum and fail to step back to connect the dots on the bigger picture. When it’s all said and done, Stearns always seems to be good at creating a team which out performs the sum of its parts which is a breathe of fresh air after dealing with DM for way too long.

The way Counsell utilizes shifting is a significant equalizer when it comes to infield defense. Speaking of ground-ball pitchers, many posters including myself are wanting Stearns to sign Dallas Kuechel (projected to sign for 3yrs/$40MM) who actually pitched worse than Anderson last season. So if we can add Anderson for a fraction of the cost for Kuechel how can any of us who wanted Keuchel complain with this move?

We were very fortunate last season that a discarded SP by the Pirates, pitched like an Ace for us down the stretch for us to get the wildcard. It would be wiser to get the Ace at the start of the season as he could help us win the divison. Did you feel fortunate in August 1st when the only players Stearns added were Jordan Lyles and Drew Pomeranz who both were producing terrible results that season? Because I definitely wasn’t happy and left feeling slighted. Hindsight is always 20/20 but as Stearns and Counsell have proven time and time again, they have a knack for finding hidden gems and knowing how to get the most out of them.

I will address each highlighted potion in order. 1. Lauer has produced decent numbers since being promoted posting a 4.40 ERA (4.35 FIP) in 261.2 IP and he did show improvement last season which is promising. These numbers are more than serviceable for a back of the rotation starter. Lindblom wasn’t terrible before going overseas and has since improved his repertoire and control which also bodes well for his future projections. Finally, Anderson is coming off a season where he produced like a solid #2 starter and has always put up good numbers when healthy. So he is the biggest question mark of the three imo but certainly not for his lack of production. So IF we have multiple issues in the rotation, I’m confident Stearns will find solutions just like he did last season by signing Gio, promoting Houser and trading for Lyles. 2. Being a small market team who is constantly spending more than every other team in similar markets does leave them with a thin line for error. Which is why Stearns makes calculated risks and doesn’t place the success of his franchise on the signings of a couple TOR pitchers who combined are on the field for less than half the games played. The alternative is to save some payroll space for trades or in season additions to make necessary adjustments on the fly because the season is long and anything can happen. So flexibility is crucial. Also rarely does any team have more than a few starting pitchers on “standby” which offer more than back of the rotation production. Hence why teams continuously overpay for free agent starters. 3. Based on how Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta and Chacin performed in 2018 I think it was necessary to allow all three of our young guns the opportunity in the rotation. Also based on how down the free agent market was last offseason there were still several options unsigned or available early in the season so my guess is Stearns knew he could make a move if needed which he did. And my guess is by adding more fire power to the lineup he was trying to alleviate the pressure on his young starters of needing to go out and lockdown opponents by giving them leads to regularly work with. 4. Every pitcher has good and bad starts. Even the elite have off games where they can get lit up. Considering a team only needs to win about 55% of their games to be a playoff contender I can live with pitchers who can throw gems every other night. 5. You are absolutely correct that successful business people need to take risks but those risks are always well calculated risks. Rarely will you see savvy investors making reckless and ill-advised expenditures. Every move is well thought out and based on analytics not reactive and rushed.

Not interested considering you can find similar production via free agency for significantly less.

For the record I said I would have spent money on Moustakas over the Seager trade proposed...if those were the options. I wouldn't do either...just saying if I was spending $15mil I would have gotten Moustakas. Would it? Sure, but as I pointed out I am not entirely sure he actually bounced back. Kind of hiding his poor play the majority of the year with a fluke hot streak that doesn't indicate his truer production level. This is why I try to go for some sort of "go big" move. Like this: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-18554/ Brewers get: OF Haniger RHP Dunn LHP Sheffield 3B Seager Mariners get: OF Lutz RHP Burnes SS Turang Or this: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-18555/ Brewers get: OF Haniger RHP Dunn LHP Sheffield 3B Seager Mariner get: LHP Hader I just posted in the rotation thread about how Burnes is our best shot at adding a TOR starter in 2020. So I’m not willing to sell low on him atm. If you can swap him out with Peralta then I’m in. As for the Hader trade, his value would be completely wasted going to Seattle now. Why sell the farm for a top tier receiver when you are suppose to be in the middle of a rebuild? Teams who are looking to contend now will be the ones interested in buying high on his right now.

So you agree that they are comparable, but would pay one $64M over 4 years but would hard pass on the other one unless he is nearly free? He posted a .843 road OPS over the entire season last year. You don't think that going from Seattle (.738 home OPS last year) to Milwaukee will help boost his offensive output? This is a very telling statistic which most fans are overlooking. We have seen time and time again how playing at Miller Park boosts a position players production. Recently Grandal, Moustakas and Yelich are all good examples of this. Why can’t Seager receive a similar bump? The other part of the equation many are forgetting is he’s an upgrade defensively over Moose which will be extremely beneficial to contact pitchers like Anderson.

If the fans like it or not, Corbin Burnes is still the best chance of adding a TOR starter in 2020. We don’t have the payroll to sign one via free agency and lack the prospects necessary to trade for one mid season. He showed in 2018 that his stuff can be downright filthy and miss plenty of bats as long as he can get his head straight. Woodruff and Burnes would make a formidable two headed monster to go along with the remainder of our option. I would be happy signing one more starter for insurance. I like both Rich Hill and Aaron Sanchez (if our medical staff complies) since both would start the season on the IR which gives Burnes time to prove himself. Best case, Burnes is dominant and Hill/Sanchez bumps Lauer/Houser to the pen or back to the minors. Worst case, Burnes struggles and we need to use a in house stopgap until Hill/Sanchez is ready.

My complaint last year was the lack of experience and stability. Which doesn’t need to cost a ton of money. While everyone said Anderson (Chase) sucked and wanted to dump him pre 2018 I told people he would easily end up one of the Top 5 guys come season end. There was so much inexperience someone was destined to fail and Anderson (a reliable starter) would take someone’s place. The problem this year is we don’t have that. Suter would be the closest thing ready to step in. Personally I would like three pieces considered reliable/experienced. Woodruff is one, Lauer is another, and preferably the third would be a solid mid rotation guy. I really don’t think Brett Anderson is that. All I am saying is I hope it ends up a little better. I don’t have a huge problem rolling the dice and then fixing in July...but consistently that is wasting resources and costing wins. It is very troublesome when they end up like Peralta/Burnes/Chacin and throw BP. There is offseason left and money to spend. We will see what they do. They may still add to the rotation or dramatically improve the offense. I feel you are complaining about something which was a series of unfortunate events. Having one or two of Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta struggle is a realistic possibility. Hence why Anderson was placed in the bullpen to start the season. We also have Junior Guerra in the pen too along with Houser in the minors. But once both Burnes and Peralta hit walls early, Stearns reacted quickly to resign Gio. Now on top of this they were also having major struggles from Chacin (I didn’t hear anyone complaining about he being our opening day starter). This along with losing Knebel right away is where we lost some flexibility and had to scramble to find adequate replacements (i.e. Houser, Lyles and Pomeranz). Considering how the wheels feel completely off out of the gate I would say Stearns did a superb job making adjustments on the fly. Now don’t even get me started on all of the positional starters who crashed and burned. So without DS having some Miss Cleo psychic powers there is now way for him to know this many major fires would need to be put out a year following their magical 2018 run.

My complaint last year was the lack of experience and stability. Which doesn’t need to cost a ton of money. While everyone said Anderson (Chase) sucked and wanted to dump him pre 2018 I told people he would easily end up one of the Top 5 guys come season end. There was so much inexperience someone was destined to fail and Anderson (a reliable starter) would take someone’s place. The problem this year is we don’t have that. Suter would be the closest thing ready to step in. Personally I would like three pieces considered reliable/experienced. Woodruff is one, Lauer is another, and preferably the third would be a solid mid rotation guy. I really don’t think Brett Anderson is that. All I am saying is I hope it ends up a little better. I don’t have a huge problem rolling the dice and then fixing in July...but consistently that is wasting resources and costing wins. It is very troublesome when they end up like Peralta/Burnes/Chacin and throw BP. There is offseason left and money to spend. We will see what they do. They may still add to the rotation or dramatically improve the offense. I feel you are complaining about something which was a series of unfortunate events. Having one or two of Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta struggle is a realistic possibility. Hence why Anderson was placed in the bullpen to start the season. We also have Junior Guerra in the pen too along with Houser in the minors. But once both Burnes and Peralta hit walls early, Stearns reacted quickly to resign Gio. Now on top of this they were also having major struggles from Chacin (I didn’t hear anyone complaining about he being our opening day starter). This along with losing Knebel right away is where we lost some flexibility and had to scramble to find adequate replacements (i.e. Houser, Lyles and Pomeranz). Considering how the wheels feel completely off out of the gate I would say Stearns did a superb job making adjustments on the fly. Now don’t even get me started on all of the positional starters who crashed and burned. So without DS having some Miss Cleo psychic powers there is now way for him to know this many major fires would need to be put out a year following their magical 2018 run.