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ZBTMP

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Everything posted by ZBTMP

  1. ZBTMP
    Help me be more optimistic here. Im seeing a guy with a home run problem (going to a park that yields alot of home runs), without much of a fastball, and no platoon splits to suggest he could even be a useful loogy.
  2. ZBTMP
    With Jansen now re-signed and assuming that Justin Turner completes his deal with the Dodgers, the Brewers pick will be between 31-39 depending on who EE, Bautista, and Trumbo sign with and whether they have to forfeit their 1st round selection.
  3. ZBTMP
    He has been used in a multiple inning role at times throughout his career (2013, 2015). He will be a good candidate for that if Blazek still cannot find the strike zone. I'm not optimistic on Cravy limiting his free passes either. If he can keep the ball in the yard, he will be an upgrade from Boyer.
  4. ZBTMP
    They SHOULD be losing that 1st round pick anyway. Can MLB defer punishment until the Cardinals chose not to sign a qualifying offer free agent? I guess its all a dream anyway, I'm sure an undisclosed fine will be it in the end.
  5. ZBTMP
    LINK
  6. ZBTMP
    Cash or PTBNL? We really are just a farm club for the big markets.
  7. ZBTMP
    Weird that the Padres traded up to get him. Did they think the Reds were going to take him at 2? Would make it less likely he clears waivers back to Milwaukee. Bad decision to leave him unprotected.
  8. ZBTMP
    While I have reasonable confidence in Knebel/Barnes, Id still like to see the Brewers bring in another reliever with upside. Names I like that shouldnt break the bank too bad: Koji Uehara- 42 but still striking out a ton of batters shucks, 1 year $4.5 mil to the North Side Casilla- His high profile meltdowns may keep his market down, but he is still has the third highest projected WAR of any reliever Personal Favorite: Drew Storen- He has been pretty bad for the last year and a half but pitched better for the Mariners. His velocity is a bit down, but he isnt that far removed: 2014: 1.12 ERA! in 56 innings 2015: Had sub 2 era and 27 saves at the all star break. Reds, 1 year - 3 million + incentives. Thoughts?
  9. ZBTMP
    Could be wrong but there is 8 QO free agents. Cespedes already re-signed with the Mets. Desmond signed with the Rockies who forfeited the 11th pick to do so. It'll depend on how many of the remaining 6 free agents sign with teams who have already surrendered the 1st round pick or have it protected. So they could technically end up at 42, but it is extremely unlikely and could be as high as pick 31. I suppose if MLB finally gets around to punishing the Cardinals that could move the pick up as well.
  10. ZBTMP
    Trying to figure out the calculation that gets Phoenix in the bottom 10 markets.... or is it did they qualify on revenue with their Billion $ TV contract?
  11. ZBTMP
    Late to the discussion, but not too worried about losing any position player. None project to be above replacement currently and its harder to hide a hitter than a pitcher. The at-bats they can get during "mop-up" duty is maybe 2 if it is a big blow out. On the other hand you can give a pitcher multiple innings. I still think Orf is the most likely to be taken and his star no doubt dropped last season that its a minute chance. I don't think Wang offers a ton of upside that a team will keep him if he isnt on their best 25. As a starter, I don't see his fastball averaging over 89 and his secondary stuff isn't great. He has shown good control but I still wonder if he has the command to keep the ball in the yard consistently against big league hitting. Diaz concerns me. I don't know if it is a case of me overvaluing our own. I doubt he is a starter long term with his build (6'1" 175) and inconsistency, but his upside in the bullpen seems pretty high to me.
  12. ZBTMP
    Which Anderson are you referring to? Because Chase Anderson put up a 3.02 ERA and 2.65 K/BB in the 2nd half of last season. That's a bit better than "mediocre". He had a 4.44 FIP and a 4.37 xFIP. Would you prefer "lucky to not be mediocre"? Either way, its not very indicative of any kind of skills growth for evaluation of future potential.
  13. ZBTMP
    Typically you'd want someone whose stuff plays up in short stints. Even if Suter does blossom into the Mariner version of Jamie Moyer, their are probably better candidates to put in a 60 inning a year role. Bottom line is late inning reliever is not a fallback option for Suter.
  14. ZBTMP
    I'd be fine bringing him in on a minor league deal to get a look at, but I think it is probably going to take a MLB contract (~5 million) with the bleak SP market and I'm not ready to do that for a guy who Im not even sure is definitively one of the 5 best starters we will have. Even in his prime, he hasn't been able to accumulate 2 WAR in any season. It also has me leery that his success came under Searage. I'm not sure I can quantify a pitching coach, and hopefully Johnson gets to the point that I can say the Brewers aren't at a disadvantage in this department. But I don't have as much faith in Johnson getting the best out of pitcher as Searage yet. I guess if I am going to spend 5 million, I'd rater throw it at a potential backend bullpen option.
  15. ZBTMP
    From BA's PCL chat: 2015 AA: 24.0 K% 9.1 BB% 2016 AA: 24.4 K% 8.3 BB% Granted it was in the third of the innings but it hopefully its an indication that not much has regressed from a skill perspective. I wouldn't bother with AAA again, but if his K:BB are similar in mid-May at AA, Id be fine with giving him a MLB shot.
  16. ZBTMP
    I know "you can never have enough pitching" and there is some upside, but the odds seem against him being a sub-4 era pitcher anymore. I like the thought as the Cubs (Feldman/Hammel) and Pirates (Burnett/Liriano) seem to find success with buy low veterans in the past, but.. If he does stay healthy Im not sure where you put everybody. Davies and Guerra have secured their spots. Peralta pitched well enough after the demotion to open next year in the rotation. There is probably still potential Nelson’s control finally takes a step forward. As unexciting as Garza is, he is probably pitching above replacement level so you don’t just cut him. Yet I doubt anyone wants to acquire him as offseason plan A in their 2017 rotation. Anderson was mediocre enough in the second half that they will probably not be ready to move on. Suter is capable of starting if need-be Wilkerson has had good enough metrics to get a shot at some point and at 28 he isn’t doing much more development at AAA. Leaving Hader in CS beyond his service deadline doesn’t seem to be the best path to maintaining his confidence level. Lopez and Jungmann both have a non-0% chance they regain previous status. Its worth noting that Lopez K:BBs were superior in AA last season than his breakout 2015. I guess we are swimming in mediocre potential backend options right now and Im not sure Morton offers more than that.
  17. ZBTMP
    General rule is about .5 WAR per year after age 30. If we go with he is a 5 win player now, that means he should be expected to produce about 21 wins over the next 7 years. With increasing revenue in the game, I'm not sure what the cost per win is anymore but 8.5 million per win for a guy that would be coveted by most of baseball seems reasonable.
  18. ZBTMP
    Not to derail the topic with a dream, Loudres Gourriel is not subject to international restrictions starting tomorrow. While alot of recent Cuban imports have underperformed some lofty expectations, it might make alot of sense for the Brewers to place a competitive bid in this situation.
  19. ZBTMP
    From Baseball America 2016 Draft Report Cards: Reviewing The Draft Classes High praise for Erceg. Its probably also noteworthy that the (2) teams' drafts ahead of the Brewers (Reds & Braves) had A Round competitive balance selections (as well as higher draft slots).
  20. ZBTMP
    The problem with that scenario is Im still not sure the Brewers score enough runs to make a difference in the short term and you've got a albatross on the backend when you need to lock up future stars. The Brewers were 24th in runs scored with healthy contributions from Lucroy and Braun. I dont know if you can expect much more offense growth from Villar. Sure Broxton, Arcia, Santana, Brinson will add positive contributions, but will they all be above average regulars in 2018? I'm not ready after next season to throw 25 million for 7 years and a first round pick at a 31 year old Yu Darvish or Lance Lynn. I'd rather they give shots to Wilkerson, Woodruff, Ortiz to see if they got something useful there.
  21. ZBTMP
    We are getting into the semantics of what is an “ace”. Citing Mark Buehrle or 2013 Jon Lester as why the Brewers need to plan to commit a large% of their future payroll to outbid deeper pocketed teams for a “TOR” pitcher seems a bit of a stretch. Several pitchers in the Brewers system I could see producing at similar levels for at least a season. The bottom line is the Brewers aren’t going to build a sustainable winner unless they develop pitching. Saying we can’t develop one, so we gamble to hopefully sign one isn’t the best path for a sustainable winner. With our current pitching depth, Im not so sure we don’t already have a Jacob Degrom, Corey Kluber, Kyle Hendricks, or Dallas Keuchel somewhere in the system.
  22. ZBTMP
    Some risks are fine, but you keep playing at the casino you are eventually going to end up in the red. From a macro-level the Brewers are far better spending dollars on extensions than the FA market. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/teams-saved-500-million-by-locking-up-players-early/
  23. ZBTMP
    Its important to remember that Cueto was only available at 22 million a year because he slumped through the second half of last season with an ERA over 4.5 and FIP over 5. The Giants could have just as easily gotten what the Tigers got with Jordan Zimmerman also at 22 million per year. The Brewers will always be sitting in a revenue hole with half of baseball having a 9 figure tv contract and the Brewers with 30 million. Contract of Otani is going to priced out of what the Brewers can afford. At the end of the day, the Brewers are unlikely to get surplus value from free agency, no matter what they sign on the open market. There may be some still in international FA signings, but the bust potential is high and the Brewers dont have a known scouting presence in Asia. The best place to get surplus value is to lock up players to extended team control and that is where the Brewers should try to focus future financial dollars. Plenty of teams have built winners without committing top dollar to free agent pitchers. You can say the Brewers haven't had the pitching developmental track record of those organizations, but the bottom line is they need to get there. edit: I missed Strasburg had signed an extension already
  24. ZBTMP
    That number is actually higher than what the Brewers spent because it includes 12 million for Hill when the Brewers spent only a small portion of that + Lucroy savings. Attansio has shown a willingness to spend money on the major league product, certainly more so than a roughly comparable market like Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Enough so, that Im not too worried about simply the owner lining his pockets. I was ready to jump on Attansio (or prematurely did) had the Brewers dropped the ball on High A, but disaster averted for now there. Still, it'd be nice to see some investment in player development/facilities (spring training facility, AAA francise, A+ franchise, player development staff, international scouting, etc.) while our payroll is where it is. I havent seen it yet, but it doesnt mean they are investing in higher tech data tracking technologies that wouldnt be widely reported. It would have been nice to see the Brewers have spend some money on a unknown like Maeda or Oh (its easy in hindsight to not say Park ) as a risk reward much like how they turned Aoki into Smith into Susac/Bickford, but it is what it is.
  25. ZBTMP
    I know people think he is too obscure to be selected, but scouts are omnipresent. There is no way I'd leave him unprotected.
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