paul253

.500 at the all star breaks means a lot of the question marks that surround this team are trending towards the positive. If the best we can hope for is a hot streak that gets us to around .500 at the all-star break and maybe we can possibly make a playoff run then I think we are really grasping for straws here. The team as it is set up now is not a team that can consistently win. It hasn't been a team that has been set up to consistently win for as long as I can remember. It's been a team that took a shot in 2008 and another one in 2011. There just isn't enough talent here. And the talent we do have, mainly Braun, Lucroy and Gomez, is either in their prime now or just coming out of their prime. History tells us that players do not generally get better once they hit the 29-30-31 age mark. If we continue to think that we can compete for a World Series what is going to happen is that we are going to lose the opportunity to move the few players we have that could actually bring talent back. Other than Lucroy and Gomez and maybe Peralta we have nobody that could bring back multiple high ceiling prospects. And Gomez is likely gone after 2016. We have a few guys in the minors that could end up being all stars (Arcia and Coulter) but just like the major league team what he have in the minors is a lot of average ceiling type guys. Guys that could be regulars but probably won't be all-stars. That has got to change if we are to ever compete on an annual basis. We need to obtain young, high ceiling talent, use that talent until they are just about out their prime (just like Lucroy and Gomez are now) and then move them for younger guys that can help us for 5 or 6 more years. We need to recycle talent, not hang onto it until they have nothing left. The window is closing very quickly for them to do something to turn this franchise around. I really, really hope they don't miss it because they think there is a chance they can sneak into the playoffs this year. As a fan, I'd be more excited to see them trade Lucroy and Gomez for high ceiling prospects than to see them play out the season in an attempt to make the playoffs.

On another note, I saw this quote from Melvin in an article on JSonline today: "We've always said there is a short window for us to try to win. I really thought in 2011 we had a chance to win (it all). In 2012, we had a talented team, too. Sometimes, that window closes on you and you've got to make some decisions. When that window closes, you could suffocate." Perhaps I misinterpreted it but it almost sounds like Doug Melvin doesn't believe Milwaukee can be a consistent winner. It would certainly explain his refusal to recycle talent. If he truly believes this he should no longer be our GM. Admittedly, it's not as easy to win consistently here as it should be in NY, LA or Chicago, but I don't believe at all that there is only a short window to win here. What we need is a GM who is willing and able to do what it takes to win consistently, not someone who thinks we can only win in short windows of time. Maybe it's his method of operation that is the biggest factor in why we can only seem to have a good team once every 4 years or so. http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/miserable-start-has-brewers-wondering-if-its-time-to-start-over-b99491603z1-302319531.html

Haha well at least you're not over-thinking it Regardless of how each team played beginning at whatever date you want to pick, the Mets had a 7 game lead on September 12 and by September 28 they were in 2nd place. That was over the course of 15 games. The Brewers had a 6.5 game lead as late as July 1st. It took 52 games before the Brewers fell into 2nd place. It was a much, much slower decline than that of the Mets which is why I don't think it is nearly as "epic". I have no stats to back this up but I'd imagine it is much more likely that a team would lose a 6.5 game lead over the course of 52 games than to lose a 7 game lead over the course of 15. For what it's worth I think you and I may be arguing different points. I refer to the "collapse" as their lead in the division. It seems like you are talking more about winning percentage. Either way, I don't think either of us believe were as good as their 51-32 suggested.

It's an epic collapse the final 36games 22% of the season. Not after that first month being a total collapse. I guess you and I have different definitions of "epic". When I hear "epic" I think rare or historical....like the 2007 Mets who blew a 7 game lead with 17 to go. Not a Brewers team whose 6.5 game division lead disappeared over a two month period. Yes they played really bad the final 22% of the season. But the lead was already shrinking prior to that.

So you include after the first month and take the epic collapse part ignoring the last month? 9-17month? In other words they played 2games under .500 between the first month and last of the season which is what the team was believed to be a .500 team. Which it only takes 6games winning vs. losing on the season to have 87wins. 1 game a month. My point is that when you say "epic collapse" you make it sound like the team was leading the division by 4 games with 5 games left and lost. Yeah September was a bad month but the collapse didn't start then. The Brewers were up 6.5 games on St. Louis at the end of June. By the end of July it was down to 2 games. By the end of August they were even. And at the end of the year they were down 8. They built a big lead yes but it was a long, slow decline. Not an all of a sudden we're not in first place anymore type of thing. And to me a long, slow collapse is indicative of a team that just isn't very good because over the course of 3 months a good team isn't going to lose 14.5 games on another team.

But you also get years like last year where it took an epic collapse to keep them out of the playoffs. Last year was not an epic collapse. After the first month of the season this was a team that played 10 games under .500. They played 16 games under over the last 3 months, which was basically half the season. They were only in first place for as long as they were because it took St. Louis and Pittsburgh longer than normal to get going. Last year's team was not good. Neither was the team before that, or the team before that. This organization has reeked of "average" over Melvin's entire career with two exceptions. Two exceptions that occurred almost entirely due to the ace pitcher that Melvin traded for. So now we're supposed to be excited that Melvin is reportedly offering up a bunch of expensive, washed-up veterans to anyone willing to take them? Nobody is suggesting Melvin has to make public statements specifically naming Gomez and Lucroy as available. But if everyone here knows Melvin's M.O., which is to not trade anyone until the final year of their contract, then surely people in the game know it too. So maybe just make a subtle statement along the lines of "the organization is obviously not where we want it to be and right now I don't know if anyone would be considered untouchable". Just make it known that you're not going to stick to the same old thinking you've stuck to for the past decade and that you might be willing to move someone who isn't a free agent after this season. That doesn't mean you have to trade them, just give other teams the idea that it's not out of the realm of possibility.

And the rats come crawling out of the woodworks. If the team goes on a small hot streak they will go scurrying back into the darkness but for now they rule supreme feeding on a poor streak. The "rats" as you say have been calling for this for years. Don't mistake us for people who jumped off the bandwagon after 23 games. The writing has been on the wall for awhile now and to those who bothered to look at it this season is no surprise. This team is way, way too veteran oriented and those vets are showing their age. A little 6 or 7 game win streak isn't going to change anything. re: Gomez and Lucroy, Gomez is probably coming off the DL just today, and Lucroy will still be on it for a while. How many teams are going to trade for a guy who is hurt? I don't think people are suggesting we trade them like....today. Obviously they have to get back into game shape and show they are healthy. But even though they are hurt you can still let team's know they can be had for the right price.

Until they add the names Carlos Gomez and Jonathan Lucroy I will not believe they are serious about turning the franchise around. Ramirez is basically worthless. He's old. He can't stay healthy. And he's going to retire next year. Why would anyone give up something significant to get him? Lohse has struggled so far. He's a free agent after the season and he's old too. Garza may get you something but not a franchise saver. I'm all for trading them but you're looking at a minimal return. It'll end up mostly being a money saver.

I was a little surprised that the Brewers rushed Harrison and Gatewood to Appleton. I'd like to see them moved down once Helena's season begins.

I'm all for moving players when their value is highest. I actually think that's the ideal strategy. I don't Peralta's value is as high as it's going to be though. He's still under team control for what, four more years? Hang on to him this year hang onto him next year and I bet his value is higher than it is now. At worst you have a fairly inexpensive #3-#4 starter. If he improves though you can probably net at least two very good prospects in return.

Give the brewers credit for switching Leal back after being such a late round guy Would the Brewers have switched him back if he didn't ask them to?

The only saving grace that I have in this organization is that they seem to have finally figured out that they need to draft for upside. Last year's draft was something else. Even picks like Stokes and Burkhalter were improvements over the typical college arm who profiles as a reliever at best but will most likely flame out in AA. And the signing of Lara was a good sign too. But other than that there is nothing. Until they actually move towards rebuilding, and that means trading some combo of Gomez/Lohse/Garza/Lucroy, I have no confidence anyone in this organization has the brains to get the ship turned in the right direction. Their track record is such that I just have zero confidence that they will do what's necessary. Someone nailed it earlier when they said that the Brewer's team is just like Bucks from a few years ago. The Bucks finally decided to stop throwing out a veteran laden .500ish team and now they are a team that people are actually excited about. That is exactly what the Brewers need to do. Unfortunately in baseball in takes much much longer.

I'd actually put Peralta in the "untouchable" category. He's the only one I'd put there. You build around young, controllable pitching and that it what Peralta is. I think Nelson is close too. Not necessarily untouchable but I don't really know what you'd expect to get for him. His value to you is much higher than his trade value right now. If I am building for the future this is what I do: 1) Trade Gomez 2) Trade Lucroy 3) Trade Lohse 4) Trade any reliever that can bring something back other than Will Smith In all the trades target starting pitching and maybe a young catcher, first basemen and third basemen. I'd stick with Jason Rogers at 1b and try Segura at 3b to see if he can cut it. Open up SS for Arcia when he's ready, probably use Sardinas there until that point. I see no reason to move Braun. He not worth anywhere near what he once was and you'd end up paying a ton of his salary anyway. Keep him there at least until Coulter is ready, which won't be til 2018 or so anyway. Use Maldonado at C until you can find a young replacement. Let Thornburg start in place of Lohse. This team would not be a good team but they're not good now anyway so what difference does it make.

I agree with Arcia at SS. I'd actually prefer Sardinas at 2nd and Rivera as the super utility player. It'd be nice to get that switchhitter in there as the every day player. Plus, I think Segura could fetch the most in return.

Segura, Gennett, Sardinas, Arcia, Rivera. All five at AA or higher. Everyone but Gennett can play both SS and 2B but none have ideal power for 1B or 3B. What's the best way to handle this? Who is the future at each position?

The Brewers would be wise to move Segura this season if he puts up decent numbers. With Sardinas, Arcia and even Rivera all at AA or higher (and all off to great starts) this is a huge opportunity to move Segura to help solve a glaring hole at third base or starting pitching. Hopefully Segura keeps up the decent start and increases his value.

To me the biggest obstacle in turning this thing around is the same obstacle people would have in trying to control an alcohol or gambling addiction: You have to first admit there is a problem. I don't mean to make light of alcoholism or gambling addictions but it's the same idea. Nobody in this organization up until this terrible start would acknowledge how bleak the future is. They were all looking at things through their rose-colored "we're a free agent and good health away from winning" glasses. I don't think any of us here are shocked at how bad the season has gone so far but I'd bet Mark and Doug are. I said earlier and I'll say again: The hot start by us and poor start by St. Louis and Pittsburgh last season was the worst thing that could have happened to this franchise. Everyone was all obsessed with how long we were in first place last season. But they didn't notice apparently that after April the team had one winning month and played 10 games under .500. Playing 83% of your season 10 games under .500 does not equal a good team. But because of the fact that they were still in first place there was this illusion that they were much better than they really were. As far as the future what do you do? Well the moves Id make are as follows: 1) Trade Gomez: He's still producing and still relatively young. Should get a decent prospect or two for him. 2) Trade Lohse: He's gone anyway. Get what you can for him. 3) Trade Lucroy: Probably your best trade chip. Take advantage of the high value while it is still there. 4) Trade any bullpen piece you can, outside of younger guys like Jeffress, Smith and Thornburg, that can bring something in return. Focus on huge positions of need with trade returns. Third base, first base, starting pitching, and catcher. Notice how when we traded Gallardo we didn't get any players who play those positions other than an extremely young starting pitcher. 5) Continue to draft high ceiling vs high floor players. I'd also suggest they move away from drafting players who throw really hard but can't control it and look at guys who throw a little softer but can throw strikes. 6) Try to sign at least one mid-high international prospect each season.

Maybe they'll surprise us and trade Luc and Gomez and completely tear it down and rebuild. I'm not holding my breath on that though. I was thinking about this the other day. Do the Brewers even have anyone to build around? Literally the only name I thought of was Wily Peralta. That's how bad the talent in this organization is right now. I'm optimistic about Arcia, Taylor, and Coulter. But they are no Fielder, Braun, and Weeks. Not even close. The lack of talent in this organization is shocking. It makes you wonder what exactly they've been doing the past 5 years. I used to think that Lucroy was someone we needed to extend. Now I'm thinking trading him, along with Gomez, can MAYBE get us some much needed talent. If we can get 2 high ceiling prospects for each, ideally at positions of dire need (3rd base, Catcher, 1st base, starting pitchers) it's an opportunity we should jump at. But this is Doug and Mark. Gomez may go because next year will be the final year of his contract. But Lucroy is going nowhere.

I definitely agree with your larger point, that the team should've been looking to sell off pieces like Lohse, etc. this past offseason I think people in the front office actually thought this team was a team that could compete for a playoff spot. That's why the front office needs to go.

considering that I never thought the 2015 Brewers would be any good, anyways, I'm excited about the potential to get a Top 5 pick in the 2016 draft I'm excited to be excited about a top 5 pick until September when the Brewers go like 20-7 to get to within 2 games of .500 and then use that strong finish to claim it's going to carry over into 2016 if only they can improve in a few minor areas.

Yeah I remember that for the first 3 weeks or so I couldn't run at all. It doesn't seem like a broken toe should affect you that much but it really does. Once I actually got it diagnosed and rested it it was about another 2 weeks or so before I could walk normally again.

anyone have a guess on how long he is out, is this a 1 month, 2 month thing. Last year I broke the middle toe on my left foot. It was about 4-5 weeks before I could walk normally. FWIW This probably isn't the worst thing in the world. The team is going nowhere anyway. Maybe this will help us get that top 5 pick.

The prospective GM's that, in a job interview with Attanasio, tell him "look, the Brewers need to rebuild. Sell off key pieces, build the farm system. Put new minor league instructors in place, change the way we approach free agency etc etc". Those guys won't be hired That may change if this season continues to go like it's going. If we are a bottom 6 or 7 team with no in house solutions for next year I don't think anyone could think that we are veteran free agent away from contending. The worst thing that happened to this team was last years hot start. People focus so much on how long the Brewers were in first place but look past the fact after April they only had one winning month and played the rest of the season at 10 games below .500. Last year's team was not a good team. They were in first place for so long because it took St. Louis and Pittsburgh awhile to heat up. I think the writing was on the wall for this team to perform how they've performed so far. Even though I don't think they are as bad the record indicates I can't imagine they are a .500 team this year. And what's there to look forward to? Hey in two or three seasons Arcia and Taylor should be ready? This organization is a mess right now.

I'd like to see a new GM also, but you are being naive if you really believe that this way of roster construction and direction is just a Melvin plan. Based on many articles over the years, Attanasio clearly has had significant input on free agent signings and setting the overall direction for the from year to year. Please. This is just one big excuse to give Melvin a pass on the average teams he's thrown together the past few seasons. I have no doubt the Mark A. has say in what goes on but I don't think it's nearly as bad as you make it seem. I doubt he's flat out told Melvin he's not allowed to trade Gomez, for instance. Hanging on to a player like Gomez, even if Melvin trades him after the season, is his M.O. He does not trade good players before the final year of their contract.

Melvin needs to go. He's done an alright job getting us out of the doldrums and even got us into the playoffs a few times with acquisitions of ace pitchers. But overall his performance results in a team that hovers around .500. Good compared to what the team did for most of the 90's. But not where they should be. He's an old timer who is stuck in his ways and does not possess that innovative thinking that allows a small market team to compete an an annual basis. Where he should be recycling talent he instead hangs onto talent as long as he can as tries to squeeze as much out of it as he can get. This results in a lineup full of players who are expensive and on the downside of their careers vs cheap and yet to reach full potential. Positions of need are either flat out ignored or filled with one year stop gap solutions. Depth has been an issue for years and never seems to be addressed. We have zero depth at first base. Zero depth at third base. Zero depth in the rotation. Zero depth at catcher. And this is a roster that Melvin thought would compete this year? I don't think he really sees, or at the very least won't acknowledge, how bleak this franchise is right now. Literally the brightest spot in the organization came from a bunch of high schoolers drafter last June, along with a few pieces from previous drafts though pitching is still a major concern. If Melvin doesn't do something radical, and his history says he won't, the team could be one of the worst in baseball over the next 2-3 years.