paul253

The stupid thing about the MLB draft that is different than every other draft is that there are certain players that have a 0% chance of being drafted by certain teams. Davidson is not good enough to be drafted at 12 but too good to last to 41 and since the teams can't trade for picks there is essentially no chance he plays in Milwaukee. This is in addition to rules that say if you grow up in country A you have to be drafted but if you grow up in country B you are a free agent. When is MLB going to stop trying to over-complicate its draft and just do something that makes sense?

Gallardo--coming off an injury filled year that was mediocre at best (the secret is that he's been worse this year) Definitely coming off a down year but he pitched 180 innings over 31 starts. He also didn't get a usual spring training routine because of the WBC. Lohse--Just turned 35 So? It's ok to rely on him at 34 but once he turns 35 we need a backup plan? Peralta--Coming off a poor season A poor first half. An incredible second half. Thornburg--7 starts with an xFIP of 4.43 in 2013 at MLB , a fairly poor showing in AAA and questions about whether he has the body to start in MLB (seems to have started to tire right now) A fairly poor showing for the first time in his career that he pretty much silenced in his time in the majors, especially when he was starting. And seriously, questions about his body? If that is a reason not to start then everyone on the staff should be fired. Forget the results over his entire minor league and brief major league career. We don't think his body is cut out to be a starter. Come on. And the fact that he is tiring now may be because he's pitching in relief for the first time in his career and may not be used to pitching so often. He was used A LOT early on. Nelson--Terribly wild in his first time in AAA in 2013 Maybe in Nashville but if you include his time in Huntsville his walks/innings pitched rate was lower in 2013 then it was any season prior. His K rate was also higher than any season other than his brief 26 inning stint in Wisconsin in 2010. Hellweg--Had no control. True, but he's essentially your 8th option. Fiers--Huge questions about him being able to have his stuff work at the major league level over time. Again, true, but he's also an emergency option. If you are going 7 or 8 deep for an extended period of time your season is probably lost anyway. There was also Will Smith who admittedly struggled as a starter but still has a lot of potential. That's 9 options for your 5 man rotation although I think realistically they could have counted on 6 solid starters (Gallardo, Lohse, Peralta, Estrada, Thornburg and Nelson). And my beef is not necessarily that Garza was signed. It was that he was signed for 4 years. I see no reason they needed to do that

Any chance Davidson lasts until the Brewers 2nd pick?

Pitching depth can evaporate pretty quickly. I'm not defending the Garza signing, but I understand it. That's true but you can always sign a guy or two for depth in need be. You don't have to have 8 pitchers with #4-#5 potential. But as a depth goes, before the year they had Gallardo, Lohse, Peralta, Estrada, Thornburg and Nelson all capable of being in the rotation. That's 6. Will Smith could have been an emergency option as well. At the time Hellweg was healthy and even though he wasn't the best option he was an option if you really needed an 8th starting pitcher. You also new Fiers was coming back. That's 9 guys who have started major league games. I think we were a lot deeper than we have been in the past. The signing was completely unnecessary and it pretty much forces as move in the upcoming offseason. You cannot put Nelson in the bullpen or in Nashville again.

Was Melvin the main driver in signing Garza or Attanasio? That's a good point. I didn't like the signing, no matter who was most responsible for it. If Mark A. was the main driver I'll be a little disappointed. I get that he's the owner and all but he's not the baseball guy. He pays the baseball guys who likely know a lot more about the game than he does. If it were a one or even a two year deal I guess I'd be fine with it. But 4 years? That's really going to hamstring the rotation options for a long time. And the fact that Garza's numbers are pretty bad doesn't help.

I am really curious to see what happens with our rotation next season. It would seem like common sense that they make a trade or two but trading starting pitchers isn't Melvin's M.O. unless they are about to hit free agency which none of our guys are. I really think Melvin blew it by signing Garza. We just didn't need him and now with how well guys like Fiers, Nelson are pitching in the minors and Thornburg and Smith in the bullpen there is a real logjam of guys who should at least have a shot at the rotation next season. I'd really like to believe either Lohse or Estrada or both will be traded in the offseason to free up a spot for Nelson and one of Fiers/Thornburg/Smith but until it happens I won't expect it.

This team needs scoring, someone that can make an impact now. To me, that's Wiggins, though from what I can read, the Bucks don't seem to be too high on him. The Bucks need a lot more than scoring. They were tied for 23rd in opponents points per game, 28th in defensive rebounds per game, 21st in total rebounding, and 26th in shooting percentage. Embiid could help all of that even if he doesn't develop his offensive game right away. If he is healthy I'd be thrilled to get him. I'd also like Wiggins because he has scoring potential is also considered a tough defender. I am less and less excited about Parker.

I am just wondering why you are so excited about Grant Holmes? I see that you mention him quite a few times and are hoping for the Brewers drafting him, or Chavis for that matter. In general I like HS pitchers with better than college guys. No real rhyme or reason to it I just feel that HS guys tend to have a bit more upside. They also have fewer pitches on their arms though in general their stuff isn't as refined. I like Holmes even though he ceiling probably isn't a high as Toussaint's because he seems to have that nice combo of stuff and control. Toussaint I read has incredible stuff but his control is pretty bad. I just think of a Jeremy Jeffress when I hear his name. Will I be disappointed if we pick him? Not at all but my expectations would probably be a little lower until he learns how to throw strikes. Same with Beede. I saw him pitch on tv a few weeks ago and was just not impressed. His pitch count was really high early on because he could not throw strikes and that seems to be a consistent problem with him. While Holmes may be a bit of a safer pick than Toussaint I don't think you are being too cautious if you pick him. Also, when I see how guys like Bradley, Jungmann and Lopez are having much better results this year than last, while also noticing their walk rates are much better, I have to believe lower walk totals have at least something to do with the added success. If it were just those three I'd prefer, in this order, 1) Holmes, 2) Tousaaint 3) Beede. But then again I am hardly a scout so my opinion should not be taken all that seriously here (that's not sarcasm). As for Chavis I haven't really been calling for the Brewers to pick him. While it would be nice to get a power bat at a position of need I'm not sure if he'd be a reach at 12. Again, would I be upset if we pick him? Depends on who else is on the board. I would prefer him to a number of other guys but not if he is not a legit top 12 talent.

Where does Jack Bauer fit into this debate?

Well at #12 you usually either get pitchers with great control but a lack of stuff, or you get pitchers with good stuff but iffy control. In this draft I don't think you have to settle for either or. If Grant Holmes is available I hope they take him. I wouldn't mind Chavis but that might be a reach.

No, he can't. He has to stay on someone's MLB roster unless he passes through waivers. Yep you are correct. I didn't realize that if Pittsburgh took him back he had to stay on Pittsburgh's roster. Is it even worth placing him on waivers or is it pretty much guaranteed someone will claim him?

What they would end up with would be a guy that three teams passed over for a better option. Maybe a better option for them but not necessarily a better option for the Bucks. If the Bucks swap picks with Orlando, there is no guarantee that they would get Exum anyway. No there isn't but they would be guaranteed to get Embiid Wiggins or Parker then. To walk away with one of those three AND the 12 pick would be fantastic. It all depends on scouting though. If there are 2 guys the Bucks REALLY want then keep the #2 and make the pick. I just think that if they really want Parker or Exum its fairly likely that one will be available at #4, especially if reports of Embiid solidifying his spot as the top prospect are true. If not you walk away with Wiggins and the #12 pick. Darn. I also have zero faith that the 12 pick would turn into anything worthwhile with Hammond drafting, Hammonds has actually been fairly successful at drafting. Sanders at #15 Henson at #14 and Giannis at 15 were all solid picks.

Wait, the way I've read on Rule 5 players is that Wang can be traded but the receiving team must keep him on their 25man for the season. Aside from Houston/Chicago what teams can really take Wang on w/o damaging their season like he's done for Milw? Maybe Arizona as well? Well we wouldn't be trading Wang we'd technically be trading FOR him (even though we already own his rights). I'm pretty sure if you trade for him he can then be placed in the minor leagues. So give Pittsburgh a player (or cash) to complete the trade then you can take Wang off the roster. Pittsburgh can't ask for too much because really their only leverage is that we don't want him on the 25 man roster.

I read in a blog that Hammond is really high on Parker and Exum. That same blog said that ownership might get involved and "force" Hammond to take Parker or Wiggins at #2 if Hammonds wants Exum because they want more of a name player. That's just one opinion of course so take it with a grain of salt. Personally my choice in order would be 1) Wiggins 2) Embiid 3) Exum 4) Parker. The fact that Parker is a tweener and can't play defense bothers me. I've heard multiple reports that Wiggins can be a lock down defender which, along with his offensive potential, make him more valuable to me. That being said if Parker and Exum are really thought of that highly by Hammond he should try to get a deal done with Orlando to swap #2 (and maybe #31) for #4 and #12 because it's almost a given that either Parker or Exum will available at 4.

Seriously, who has suggested ANYWHERE trading the #2 pick straight up for the #4 pick? It's been said several times. It's sarcasm dude. Second, there are no Tim Duncan's or Lebron James in this draft? I HATE when people say that. How do you possibly know this? Because James and Duncan were once in a generation players. They had few, if any, holes in there games and a team with them on it goes from being one of the worst in basketball to at least an average team. I don't think it's a stretch to say this considering just how good James and Duncan were. Yes this year's crop has the potential to be good. But be honest with yourself. If James or Duncan were in this draft would there be any doubt at all that they'd be #1? Would you even consider taking Embiid over Duncan? I sure wouldn't. It is NOT reasonable to say that Embiid has major health questions. Since when is a stress fracture minor?

What would Pittsburgh ask in return for Wang at this point? Could we give up a Burgos or a Donovan Hand or someone like that? Would that be enough? Pittsburgh essentially gets a free player and we get to move Wang to Wisconsin. If Melvin isn't talking to Pittsburgh about it he should be.

To me the one thing that scares me most about pitchers is a lack of control. The Brewers have had zero luck it seems getting hard throwing but wild pitchers to learn control. I think of guys like Rogers, Jeffress, Hellweg, even Pena. That's why I am scared of guys like Toussaint and Beede. If Beede had any sort of control, or if scouts thought he could improve his control, I'd imagine he'd be a top 5 pick. Toussaint I guess is a bit different because he doesn't just have that amazing fast he's got 2 other above average pitches. But again, with three good to great pitches he should be a top 5 pick but that control is scaring people away.

So at #2 you have a chance to get a player that can really be something special since this year's draft is so strong, and you want to move down to get something that would've been closer to a #2 pick in last year's more "normal" draft? And something else. I'm not trading the #2 pick for the #4 pick. I'm getting something else. Maybe it's another first rounder this year. Maybe it's an unprotected pick next year. While the top players in this draft have the potential to be really good they also have the potential to be misses. There is no Lebron James or Tim Duncan in this draft. Embiid has major health questions. Parker doesn't have a set position and can't play defense. Wiggins is very athletic and has a ton of upside but he disappeared at times and was inconsistent at Kansas. So yeah I could get Wiggins or Parker at 2 and be very happy. But if I work out a deal with, say, Orlando, I could get Exum and Gary Harris at #4 and #12. Or I could get Randle and Stauskus. I'd be happy with that too. And again, I'm not suggesting we move down to #15. I'd probably go no lower than #6 unless the deal is too good to pass up.

Two lower lottery picks would likely help the team get back to mediocre range more quickly, but the odds of getting a franchise player fall way off after the first 2 or 3 picks. This is a stronger than normal draft though. Guys who go in the 4-7 range this year are guys who would have gone in the 1-4 range last year. If you put any of Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Exum, Smart, or Randle in last year's draft all of them would have gone in the top 2. In order words, I'd rather have had the #6 pick this year than the #2 pick last year. I think you would be able to get a solid player at #8 this year. Definitely at #4. It's not like people are suggesting we move down to #17.

I can't help but think someone, probably Morris, is going to be used a trade bait to upgrade first base later this year. I've never thought that highly of Nick Ramirez or Garrett Cooper but I like Denson's potential. As far as Rogers goes, how is he handling 3rd base? Any chance he could stick there? If not he'd likely move back to first if Morris is traded.

Couple of rumors I have heard so far: - Embiid is #1 on Cleveland's board so if they make the pick its likely they'll take him. - Sacramento is looking to trade their #8 pick for a veteran. I'm wondering if we have any veterans that would interest Sacramento. Sanders maybe? Ilyasova? Maybe throw in the #31 or 36 pick.

I don't see any scenario where the Cavs do not draft Wiggins I feel the same way. After completely botching last year's top pick I don't see Cleveland taking another chance on Embiid. I see Cleveland taking Wiggins as he probably has the most upside and has been considered "the next Lebron" since he was a sophomore in HS. After that it would be interesting to see what the Bucks do. Assuming Wiggins goes to Cleveland, if I were the Bucks I'd call Philly and see how badly they want Parker. I'd tell them we are going to take Parker. If you want him give us 3 and 10. That would still get us our choice of Embiid, Exum or Randle plus another quality player (Harris, Smart, Young, McDermott) at 10. If Parker and Wiggins separate themselves as the clear cut top 2 guys in the draft that #2 pick could be worth a king's ransom.

Third time since Lebron left that Cleveland gets the #1 pick.....hmm.

Come #12 I am really hoping Finnegan, Zimmer, and Conforto are all off the board. I've seen Finnegan's name linked to the Brewers in a few mocks. I've also heard a lot of talk about him ending up as a reliever which would seem like a waste. And while I'm sure Zimmer and Conforto would make fine prospects I just think outfielders are the absolute last thing we need.

Jungmann just had another solid start for Huntsville last night. He's now got a 2.77 ERA and a 46/15 K/BB ratio over 52 innings. Tyler Cravy has a 1.87 ERA and Brent Suter 2.30 ERA. Both also have good K/BB ratios. Meanwhile Michael Blazek just started a game for Nashville. I'm just saying.