82brewcrew82
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Everything posted by 82brewcrew82
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Say hello to the first place Cincinnati Reds.
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Primed for a six pitch inning from Kelly.
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Might be a good thing.
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3 hitters and not a single competitive pitch.
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That's all that matters.
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If you can use stats you like, others can use stats they like. Either way, you didn't prove the point you wanted to.. Those numbers do not reflect a good pitching staff.
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All of that is true but they are going to have to play a whole lot better than they have and they have shown zero indication that they can.
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I hadn't realized that Contreras had been that awful.
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Sure, except literally no one has said that.
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This is exactly right and the reason run differential is a bad argument on its own. I wish I could give the original post multiple thumbs up and giant blinking stars.
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How does that not mean anything when the question you posed was whether any of these teams have shown the ability to have that kind of run? You can't ask that then say the proof doesn't mean anything. Meanwhile, the one team that actually hasn't shown that ability is just assumed to have that run in them?
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They also went something like 20-8 the first month. So they have definitely shown they can.
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Pittsburgh has.
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Who says the are under performing? The fangrapsh graph you posted sure doesn't think they are.
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It might be much if your pitching and defense are at the other end of the spectrum.
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Sure but hasn't that been the task all year? Nobody went into this season expecting the division to be anything other than mediocre and they seem to be living up to that, just not the teams we thought. The only real surprise is just how bad the Cardinals have been.
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Its a one run differential. Statistically meaningless so yes. Run differential is a nice tool but taken by itself lacks context. Either way, we don't go back a play the games over or get some special adjustment based on run differential. Teams over and under perform run differential every year to a greater degree than one single run. So, all that matters here is wins and losses moving forward. Your fangraphs graph seems to suggest they think the Brewers will outperform the Cardinals the rest of the way.
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The 2011 Cardinals have nothing to do with the 2023 Cardinals. In 2023, the Cardinals have not been a good team at any point and that is reflected in their playoff chances which are a statistical coin toss with those of the Pirates and Reds that you seem to have written off.
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Yeah, sorry. Not a believer in baseball gods. I lean more toward facts.
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But that Cardinal team was never a "bad" team. This one is, which is all that matter for 2023.
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I don't know what you are looking at but that graph you posted has the Cardinals at 12.1 for the playoffs and 11.1 for the division. Those number are...not good. Sure, not impossible, but historically unlikely, which is all anyone on this board is saying.
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Never mind Atlanta's complete collapse but the reality is that nothing that happened in 2011 has any bearing on anything happening in 2023.
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In looking at that graph, faith is a strong word for the chances given to any of those teams. It would seem the only team they give serious consideration to is the Brewers. Having said that, outside of one hot streak the Cardinals "faith" has taken a complete nose dive with Reds making up serious ground on them. That graph would suggest the Cardinals should be much more worried about the Reds passing them than they should be about catching the Cubs.
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I'm not. Also old enough to know that September and October of a team that existed 12 years ago has zero impact on what is happening now.
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You don't think or believe the Cardinals will turn it around? You've literally posted just that, how the Brewers are keeping first place warm for the Cardinals among other things. Then you make an argument with facts that don't exist? No one on this board has ever said that the Cardinals are out of it. They have only pointed out how historically good they'd have to be to make this run you think they have in them despite being the same team for months now. The Cardinals have been awful, like one of the five worst teams in the league awful for some time now.
